近159年东亚夏季风年代际变化与中国东部旱涝分布(英文)

Based on the drought/flood grades of 90 meterological stations over eastern China and summer average sea-level pressure (SLP) during 1850–2008 and BPCCA statistical methods, the coupling relationship between the drought/flood grades and the East Asian summer SLP is analyzed. The East Asian summer monsoon index which is closely related with interdecadal variation of drought/flood distribution over eastern China is defined by using the key areas of SLP. The impact of the interdecadal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon on the distribution of drought/flood over eastern China in the last 159 years is researched. The results show that there are four typical drought and flood spatial distribution patterns in eastern China, i.e. the distribution of drought/flood in southern China is contrary to the other regions, the distribution of drought/flood along the Huanghe River–Huaihe River Valley is contrary to the Yangtze River Valley and regions south of it, the distribution of drought/flood along the Yangtze River Valley and Huaihe River Valley is contrary to the other regions, the distribution of drought/flood in eastern China is contrary to the western. The main distribution pattern of SLP in summer is that the strength of SLP is opposite in Asian continent and West Pacific. It has close relationship between the interdecadal variation of drought/flood distribution patterns over eastern China and the interdecadal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon which was defined in this paper, but the correlation is not stable and it has a significant difference in changes of interdecadal phase. When the East Asian summer monsoon was stronger (weaker), regions north of the Yangtze River Valley was more susceptible to drought (flood), the Yangtze River Valley and regions south of it were more susceptible to flood (drought) before the 1920s; when the East Asian summer monsoon was stronger (weaker), the regions north of the Yangtze River Valley was prone to flood (drought), the Yangtze River Valley and regions south of it were prone to drought (flood) after the 1920s. It is indicated that by using the data of the longer period could get much richer results than by using the data of the last 50–60 years. The differences in the interdecadal phase between the East Asian summer monsoon and the drought/flood distributions in eastern China may be associated with the nonlinear feedback, which is the East Asian summer monsoon for the extrinsic forcing of solar activity.     

“一带一路”陆域地理格局与环境变化风险（英文）

Building the Belt and Road is initiatives of China to promote win-win international cooperation in the new era, aiming at green, health, intellect and peace and the joint development with people of the countries along the route. Systematic analysis on environmental characteristics, evolutionary tendency and future risks are certainly the scientific fundamentals of sustainable development for the Belt and Road construction. Applied remote sensing monitoring, statistical analysis, this paper investigates the regional characteristics of climate, topography, soil, hydrology, vegetation cover and terrestrial ecosystems production, as well as socio-economic conditions. Based on the regional characteristics, the Belt and Road is divided into 9 sub-regions: Central and Eastern Europe sub-region with cold and humid climate, Mongolia and Russia sub-region with cold and arid climate, Central and West Asia arid sub-region, Southeast Asia sub-region with warm and humid climate, Pakistan arid sub-region, Bangladesh-India-Myanmar sub-region with warm and humid climate, Eastern China monsoon sub-region, Northwest China arid sub-region and Tibetan Plateau sub-region. Combining modeling simulation with scenario projections, natural disaster assessment methodology is used to assess the risk of extreme events including heat waves, droughts and floods in the coming 30 years(2021–2050). Results show that, on the basis of the regional framework, the western Eurasia would be a warming trend; both sides of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in high temperature and heat waves risk; Central and Eastern Europe sub-region with cold and humid climate in high drought risk; Bangladesh-India-Myanmar sub-region with warm and humid climate as well as Eastern China in high risk of flooding.     

Multi-scale temperature variations and their regional differences in China during the Medieval Climate Anomaly

The Medieval Climate Anomaly(MCA, AD950–1250) is the most recent warm period lasting for several hundred years and is regarded as a reference scenario when studying the impact of and adaptation to global and regional warming. In this study, we investigated the characteristics of temperature variations on decadal–centennial scales during the MCA for four regions(Northeast, Northwest, Central-east, and Tibetan Plateau) in China, based on high-resolution temperature reconstructions and related warm–cold records from historical documents. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition method is used to analyze the time series. The results showed that for China as a whole, the longest warm period during the last 2000 years occurred in the 10 th–13 th centuries, although there were multi-decadal cold intervals in the middle to late 12 th century. However, in the beginning and ending decades, warm peaks and phases on the decadal scale of the MCA for different regions were not consistent with each other. On the inter-decadal scale, regional temperature variations were similar from 950 to 1130; moreover, their amplitudes became smaller, and the phases did not agree well from 1130 to 1250. On the multi-decadal to centennial scale, all four regions began to warm in the early 10 th century and experienced two cold intervals during the MCA. However, the Northwest and Central-east China were in step with each other while the warm periods in the Northeast China and Tibetan Plateau ended about 40-50 years earlier. On the multi-centennial scale, the mean temperature difference between the MCA and Little Ice Age was significant in Northeast and Central-east China but not in the Northwest China and Tibetan Plateau. Compared to the mean temperature of the 20 th century, a comparable warmth in the MCA was found in the Central-east China, but there was a little cooling in Northeast China; meanwhile, there were significantly lower temperatures in Northwest China and Tibetan Plateau.     

基于SPEI指数的近53年河南省干旱时空变化特征（英文）

Drought is one of the most complex natural hazards affecting agriculture,water resources,natural ecosystems,and society.The negative societal consequences of drought include severe economic losses,famine,epidemics,and land degradation.However,few studies have analyzed the complexity of drought characteristics,both at multiple time scales and with variations in evapotranspiration.In this study,drought occurrences were quantified using a new drought index,the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI),based on observed data of monthly mean temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2013 in Henan province,central China.Based on the SPEI values of each weather station in the study,the frequency and severity of meteorological droughts were computed,and the monthly,seasonal,and annual drought frequency and intensity over a 53-year period were analyzed.The spatial and temporal evolution,intensity,and the primary causes of drought occurrence in Henan were revealed.The results showed that the SPEI values effectively reflected the spatial and temporal pattern of drought occurrence.As the time scale decreased,the amplitude of the SPEI increased and droughts became more frequent.Since 1961,drought has occurred at the annual,seasonal,and monthly scales,and the occurrence of drought has increased.However,regional distribution has been uneven.The highest drought frequency,35%,was observed in the Zhoukou region,while the lowest value,~26%,was measured in central and western Henan.The most severe droughts occurred in the spring and summer,followed by autumn.Annually,wide-ranging droughts occurred in 1966–1968,1998–2000,and 2011–2013.The drought intensity showed higher values in north and west Henan,and lower values in its east and south.The maximum drought intensity value was recorded in Anyang,and the minimum occurred in Zhumadian,at 22.18% and 16.60%,respectively.The factors with the greatest influence on drought occurrence are increasing temperatures,the Eurasian atmospheric circulation patterns,and the El Ni?o effect.     

新疆绿洲地区过去2000年古城分布与气候变化的关系（英文）

The study on the relationship of abandoned settlements and climate change in the oases could provide a historical reference for understanding human responses to present and future global warming in the arid zone. A total of 554 abandoned historical settlements in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, were used to examine the relationship between abandoned settlements and temperature change over the past 2000 years. The analysis covered dynastic epochs from the Han Dynasty(206BC–220AD) to the Qing Dynasty(1644AD– 1911AD) in the oases of Xinjiang. Greater density of settlements was found at the oases larger than 2000 km~2, which were more stable and less sensitive to climate change compared to smaller oases. Settlements flourished at small oases and the middle and lower reaches of rivers during warm periods and shrank back to piedmont basins and upstream alluvial fans during cold periods. These results demonstrated responses of oasis agriculture to climate change.     

京津冀干旱时空演变规律分析（英文）

Spatio-temporal patterns of drought from 1961 to 2013 over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH) region of China were analyzed using the Palmer Drought Severity index(PDSI) based on 21 meteorological stations. Overall, changes in the mean-state of drought detected in recent decades were due to decreases in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The Empirical Orthogonal Functions(EOF) method was used to decompose drought into spatio-temporal patterns, and the first two EOF modes were analyzed. According to the first leading EOF mode(48.5%), the temporal variability(Principal Components, PC1) was highly positively correlated with annual series of PDSI(r=+0.99). The variance decomposition method was further applied to explain the inter-decadal temporal and spatial variations of drought relative to the total variation. We find that 90% of total variance was explained by time variance, and both total and time variance dramatically decreased from 1982 to 2013. The total variance was consistent with extreme climate events at the inter-decadal scale(r=0.71, p0.01). Comparing the influence of climate change on the annual drought in two different long-term periods characterized by dramatic global warming(P1: 1961–1989 and P2: 1990–2013), we find that temperature sensitivity in the P2 was three times more than that in the P1.     

基于方志资料重建1644-1949年长江三角洲地区台风频次序列(英文)

The proxy records on typhoons in the Yangtze River Delta from 1644 to 1949AD were extracted from historical chorographies in the Qing Dynasty and the Republic of China Period.In reference to the basic principles for identifying historical typhoons,time series on the Yangtze River Delta over a period of 306 years were developed.The conclusions are as follows.(1) There were a total of 241 typhoons from 1644 to 1949AD.Using the historical chorographies from 1884 to 1949AD,the number of typhoons was 65,equal to 87.8% recorded by meteorological observation.The number of years with differences in typhoon activities reconstructed using two ways no more than once is 55,reaching 83.3% in the period from 1884 to 1949AD.This result means the series of historical typhoons reconstructed using historical chorographies can represent the change of typhoon activities over years.(2) The average number of typhoon activities is 0.79 times per year from 1644 to 1949AD,and they show an increasing trend.These 306 years can be divided into three periods by the average number of typhoon activities:it is low from 1644 to 1784AD,and more typhoon activities are found from 1785 to 1904AD.It is worth noting that the number of typhoon activities reaches the summit in the last period,which is 1.2 times per year from 1905 to 1949AD.(3) Before the 20th century,the number of typhoon activities in warm periods is less than the number of cold periods.However,the number of typhoon activities increased dramatically in the early 20th century.Comparing the typhoon activities with El Ni o events,the data show that the number of typhoon activities did not increase when El Ni o occurred.     

1990年以来中国小麦农业气象灾害时空变化特征(英文)

Agro-meteorological disasters(AMD) have become more frequent with climate warming. In this study, the temporal and spatial changes in the occurrence frequency of major meteorological disasters on wheat production were firstly explored by analyzing the observed records at national agro-meteorological stations(AMS) of China from 1991 to 2009. Furthermore, impact of climate change on AMD was discussed by comparing the warmer decade(2000–2009) with another decade(1991–2000). It was found that drought was the most frequent disaster during the last two decades, with a highest proportion of 79%. And the frequency of AMD increased significantly with climate change. Specifically, the main disasters occurred more frequently in the reproductive period than in the vegetative period. Besides, the spatial changes in the AMD frequency were characterized by region-specific. For example, the wheat cultivation areas located on the Loess Plateau and the middle-lower reaches of the Yellow River suffered mainly from drought. All these results were strongly linked to climate change in China. Therefore, sound adaptation options should be taken based on the latest changes of AMD under global warming to reduce agricultural damages.     

未来情境下中国高温的人口暴露度变化及影响因素研究（英文）

Overall population exposure is measured by multiplying the annual average number of extremely hot days by the number of people exposed to the resultant heat. Extreme heat is also subdivided into high temperature(HT) and extremely high temperature(EHT) in cases where daily maximum temperature exceeds 35℃ and 40℃, respectively. Chinese population exposure to HT and EHT over four periods in the future(i.e., 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2060–2081 and 2081–2100) were projected at the grid cell level in this study using daily maximum temperature based on an ensemble mean of 21 global climate models under the RCP8.5 scenario and with a population projection based on the A2 r socio-economic scenario. The relative importance of population and climate as drivers of population exposure was evaluated at different spatial scales including national and meteorological geographical divisions. Results show that, compared with population exposure seen during 1981–2010, the base period, exposure to HT in China is likely to increase by 1.3, 2.0, 3.6, and 5.9 times, respectively, over the four periods, while concomitant exposure to EHT is likely to increase by 2.0, 8.3, 24.2, and 82.7 times, respectively. Data show that population exposure to HT is likely to increase significantly in Jianghuai region, Southwest China and Jianghan region, in particular in North China, Huanghuai region, South China and Jiangnan region. Population exposure to EHT is also likely to increase significantly in Southwest China and Jianghan region, especially in North China, Huanghuai, Jiangnan, and Jianghuai regions. Results reveal that climate is the most important factor driving the level of population exposure in Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jianghan, and Jiangnan regions, as well as in South and Southwest China, followed by the interactive effect between population and climate. Data show that the climatic factor is also most significant at the national level, followed by the interactive effect between population and climate. The rate of contribution of climate to national-level projected changes in exposure is likely to decrease gradually from ca. 70% to ca. 60%, while the rate of contribution of concurrent changes in both population and climate is likely to increase gradually from ca. 20% to ca. 40% over the four future periods in this analysis.     

1961-2015年中国极端干旱时间演变特征（英文）

Understanding the past variations in extreme drought is especially beneficial to the improvement of drought resistance planning and drought risk management in China. Based on the monitoring data of meteorological stations from 1961 to 2015 and a meteorological drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI), the spatio-temporal variations in extreme drought at inter-decadal, inter-annual and seasonal scales in China were analyzed. The results revealed that 12 months cumulative precipitation with 1/2 to 5/8 of average annual precipitation will trigger extreme drought. From the period 1961–1987 to the period 1988–2015, the mean annual frequency of extreme drought(FED) increased along a strip extending from southwest China(SWC) to the western part of northeast China(NEC). The increased FED showed the highest value in spring, followed by winter, autumn and summer. There was a continuous increase in the decadal-FED from the 1990 s to the 2010 s on the Tibetan Plateau(TP), the southeast China(SEC) and the SW. During the period 1961–2015, the number of continuous drought stations was almost the same among 4 to 6 months and among 10 to 12 months of continuous drought, respectively. It can be inferred that drought lasting 6 or 12 months may lead to more severe drought disasters due to longer duration. The range of the longest continuous drought occurred in the 21 st century had widely increased compared with that in the 1980 s and the 1990 s. Our findings may be helpful for water resources management and reducing the risk of drought disasters in China.     

Historical drought and water disasters in the Weihe Plain

Through detailed statistics and analysis of drought and water disasters in the Weihe Plain in the historical period, we discovered that in more than 2300 years (from 370 BC to 2000 AD), natural disasters occurred most frequently in two periods. One is from 610 to 850 AD (from the late Sui Dynasty to the late Tang Dynasty) and the other is from 1580 to 2000 AD (after the late Ming Dynasty). Different natural disasters occurred synchronously, that is to say, when the drought occurred frequently, water disasters occurred frequently in the same periods. Frequencies of natural disasters, on the one hand, connected with climate changes and development course of ancient cities, while on the other, related closely to population changes. The excessive exploitation of natural resources and human disturbance and damages to ecological environment are the major reasons for the increased drought and water disasters.     

Spatial identification and scenario simulation of the ecological transition zones under the climate change in China

Explicitly identifying the spatial distribution of ecological transition zones(ETZs) and simulating their response to climate scenarios is of significance in understanding the response and feedback of ecosystems to global climate change. In this study, a quantitative spatial identification method was developed to assess ETZ distribution in terms of the improved Holdridge life zone(iHLZ) model. Based on climate observations collected from 782 weather stations in China in the T0(1981–2010) period, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(IPCC CMIP5) RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 climate scenario data in the T1(2011–2040), T2(2041–2070), and T3(2071–2100) periods, the spatial distribution of ETZs and their response to climate scenarios in China were simulated in the four periods of T0, T1, T2, and T3. Additionally, a spatial shift of mean center model was developed to quantitatively calculate the shift direction and distance of each ETZ type during the periods from T0 to T3. The simulated results revealed 41 ETZ types in China, accounting for 18% of the whole land area. Cold temperate grassland/humid forest and warm temperate arid forest(564,238.5 km~2), cold temperate humid forest and warm temperate arid/humid forest(566,549.75 km~2), and north humid/humid forest and cold temperate humid forest(525,750.25 km~2) were the main ETZ types, accounting for 35% of the total ETZ area in China. Between 2010 and 2100, the area of cold temperate desert shrub and warm temperate desert shrub/thorn steppe ETZs were projected to increase at a rate of 4% per decade, which represented an increase of 3604.2, 10063.1, and 17,242 km~2 per decade under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The cold ETZ was projected to transform to the warm humid ETZ in the future. The average shift distance of the mean center in the north wet forest and cold temperate desert shrub/thorn grassland ETZs was generally larger than that of other ETZs, with the mean center moving to the northeast and the shift distance being more than 150 km during the periods from T0 to T3.In addition, with a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation, the ETZs in northern China displayed a shifting northward trend, while the area of ETZs in southern China decreased gradually, and their mean center moved to high-altitude areas. The effects of climate change on ETZs presented an increasing trend in China, especially in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.     

Spatial and temporal temperature variations in Xinjiang, China during 1961–2008

This study examines spatial and temporal changes in 16 extreme temperature indices at 37 weather stations in Xinjiang and their associations with changes in climate means during 1961–2008. Linear regression analyses reveal that significant increasing trends in temperature were observed over Xinjiang, with the rate of 0.13 °C/decade, 0.24 °C/decade, and 0.52 °C/decade for annual mean temperature, annual maximum, and minimum temperature, respectively. Annual frequency of cool nights (days) has decreased by -2.45 days/decade (-0.86 days/decade), whereas the frequency of warm nights (days) has increased by 4.85 days/decade (1.62 days/decade). Seasonally, the frequencies of summer warm nights and days are changing more rapidly than the corresponding frequencies for cool nights and days. However, normalization of the extreme and mean series shows that the rate of changes in extreme temperature events are generally less than those of mean temperatures, except for winter cold nights which are changing as rapidly as the winter mean minimum temperatures. These results indicate that there have been seasonally and diurnally asymmetric changes in extreme temperature events relative to recent increases in temperature means in Xinjiang.     

2001-2013年华北地区植被覆盖度与干旱条件的相关分析（英文）

Climate change is one of the most important factors that affect vegetation distribution in North China. Among all climatic factors, drought is considered to have the most significant effect on the environment. Based on previous studies, the climate drought index can be used to assess the evolutionary trend of the ecological environment under various arid climatic conditions. It is necessary for us to further explore the relationship between vegetation coverage(index) and climate drought conditions. Therefore, in this study, based on MODIS-NDVI products and meteorological observation data, the Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI) and vegetation coverage in North China were first calculated. Then, the interannual variations of PDSI and vegetation coverage during 2001–2013 were analyzed using a Theil-Sen slope estimator. Finally, an ecoregion perspective of the correlation between them was discussed. The experimental results demonstrated that the PDSI index and vegetation coverage value varied over different ecoregions. During the period 2001–2013, vegetation coverage increased in the southern and northern mountains of North China, while it showed a decreasing trend in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan City Circle area and suburban agricultural zone located in Hebei Province and Henan Province). Over 13 years, the climate of the northeastern part of North China became more humid, while in the southern part of North China, it tended to be dry. According to the correlation analysis results, 73.37% of North China showed a positive correlation between the vegetation coverage and climate drought index. A negative correlation was observed mainly in urban and suburban areas of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei Province, and Henan Province. In most parts of North China, drought conditions in summer and autumn had a strong influence on vegetation coverage.     

Temperature variations evidenced by records on the latest spring snowing dates in Hangzhou of eastern China during 1131–1270AD

We collected and verified documentary records of the latest spring snowing dates(LSSD) in Hangzhou during Southern Song Dynasty. Furtherly, the statistical correlation between this proxy and February–April mean temperature in Hangzhou was examined, and samples later than the perennial mean of the LSSD during Southern Song Dynasty were transformed into the decadal mean of LSSD by means of Boltzmann function. General characteristics of this reconstructed LSSD series with a 10-year temporal resolution was analyzed, and it was also compared with other documentary evidences and reconstructed climate series in China for the period 1131–1270. The results and discussion suggested that:(1) Records of the LSSD in Hangzhou during Southern Song Dynasty did not refer to ice pellets and graupels, which had an explicit climate significance(–0.34℃/10 d, R2=0.37, p0.001). However, when this proxy is used to reconstruct temperature changes, all dates should be converted into proleptic Gregorian style and meet the same criterion of "true Qi" as the Chinese traditional calendar after 1929.(2) The decadal mean of LSSD can be effectively estimated by using the forefront of LSSD in the decade on the basis of Boltzmann function, whose extrapolation has a lesser uncertainty than those on the basis of linear models or polynomial models.(3) The spring climate in Hangzhou during 1131–1270 was almost as warm as the period 1951–1980. At the centennial scale, this period can be divided into two phases: the cold 1131–1170 and the warm 1171–1270. In the latter, 1181–1200 and 1221–1240 were two cold intervals at the multi-decadal scale.(4) The reconstructed LSSD series was consistent well with other documentary evidences and reconstructed climate series in China for 1131–1270, which may reflect the influence on the climate over most regions of China imposed by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO).     

近159年东亚夏季风年代际变化与中国东部旱涝分布(英文)

Based on the drought/flood grades of 90 meterological stations over eastern China and summer average sea-level pressure (SLP) during 1850–2008 and BPCCA statistical methods, the coupling relationship between the drought/flood grades and the East Asian summer SLP is analyzed. The East Asian summer monsoon index which is closely related with interdecadal variation of drought/flood distribution over eastern China is defined by using the key areas of SLP. The impact of the interdecadal variation of the East Asi...     

1960-2009年西南地区极端干旱气候变化(英文)

Based on the daily data of temperature and precipitation of 108 meteorological stations in Southwest China from 1960 to 2009, we calculate the monthly and yearly surface humid indexes, as well as the extreme drought frequency. According to the data, the temporal and spatial characteristics of the extreme drought frequency in inter-annual, inter-decadal, summer monsoon period and winter monsoon period are analyzed. The results are indicated as follows. (1) In general, the southwestern Sichuan Basin, southern Hengduan Mountains, southern coast of Guangxi and northern Guizhou are the areas where the extreme drought frequency has significantly increased in the past 50 years. As for the decadal change, from the 1960s to the 1980s the extreme drought frequency has presented a decreasing trend, while the 1990s is the wettest decade and the whole area is turning wet. In the 2000s, the extreme drought frequency rises quickly, but the regional differences reduce. (2) During summer monsoon period, the extreme drought frequency is growing, which generally occurs in the high mountains around the Sichuan Basin, most parts of Guangxi and "the broom-shaped mountains" in Yunnan. It is distinct that the altitude has impacts on the ex-treme drought frequency; during winter monsoon period, the area is relatively wet and the extreme drought frequency is decreasing. (3) During summer monsoon period, the abrupt change is observed in 2003, whereas the abrupt change during winter monsoon period is in 1989. The annual extreme drought frequency variation is a superposition of abrupt changes during summer monsoon and winter monsoon periods. The departure sequence vibration of annual extreme drought frequency is quasi-5 years and quasi-12 years.     

Spatial and temporal variabilities of rainstorms over China under climate change

Rainstorms are one of the extreme rainfall events that cause serious disasters, such as urban flooding and mountain torrents. Traditional studies have used rain gauge observations to analyze rainstorm events, but relevant information is usually missing in gauge-sparse areas. Satellite-derived precipitation datasets serve as excellent supplements or substitutes for the gauge observations. By developing a grid-based rainstorm-identification tool, we used the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission(TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis(TMPA) time series product to reveal the spatial and temporal variabilities of rainstorms over China during 1998–2017. Significant patterns of both increasing and decreasing rainstorm occurrences were detected, with no spatially uniform trend being observed across the whole country. There was an increase in the area being affected by rainstorms during the 20-year period, with rainstorm centers shifting along the southwest–northeast direction. Rainstorm occurrence was found to be correlated with local total precipitation. By comparing rainstorm occurrence with climate variables such as the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, we also found that climate change was likely to be the primary reason for rainstorm occurrence in China. This study complements previous studies that used gauge observations by providing a better understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of China's rainstorms.     

基于信息扩散理论新疆气象灾害风险评估(英文)

Data of flood, drought, hailstorms, and low temperature events in Xinjiang from 1949 to 2012 were analyzed with the diffusion method to assess the risk of the most common types of disasters in Xinjiang. It was proved that the frequency and intensity of meteorological disasters of the study area showed an increasing trend associated with global warming. Among the four types of disasters, surpass probability of drought was the largest, followed by hailstorm, low temperature and flood in turn. Moreover, the wavelet method analysis revealed that greater oscillations had occurred since 2000, which may be associated with the occurrence of extreme climatic changes. The spatial distribution of frequencies reveals that the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains is a multiple disaster area, the southern slope of Tianshan is the area where more floods and hailstorms occur, and the west of Turpan-Hami Basin is the area wind is prevalent. The relationships between disaster-affected areas and corresponding meteorological and socio-economic indexes were also analyzed. It indicated that there were significant positive correlations between the areas affected and the most meteorological and socio-economic indicators except the grain acreage.     

1961-2008年中国西南地区极端气候变化幅度的海拔效应(英文)

A total of 12 indices of temperature extremes and 11 indices of precipitation ex-tremes at 111 stations in southwestern China at altitudes of 285-4700 m were examined for the period 1961-2008. Significant correlations of temperature extremes and elevation in-cluded the trends of diurnal temperature range, frost days, ice days, cold night frequency and cold day frequency. Regional trends of growing season length, warm night frequency, coldest night and warmest night displayed a statistically significant positive correlation with altitude. These characteristics indicated the obvious warming with altitude. For precipitation extreme indices, only the trends of consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, wet day precipitation and the number of heavy precipitation days had significant correlations with increasing alti-tude owing to the complex influence of atmospheric circulation. It also indicated the increased precipitation mainly at higher altitude areas, whereas the increase of extreme precipitation events mainly at lowers altitude. In addition, the clearly local influences are also crucial on climate extremes. The analysis revealed an enhanced sensitivity of climate extremes to ele-vation in southwestern China in the context of recent warming.