Historical drought and water disasters in the Weihe Plain

Through detailed statistics and analysis of drought and water disasters in the Weihe Plain in the historical period, we discovered that in more than 2300 years (from 370 BC to 2000 AD), natural disasters occurred most frequently in two periods. One is from 610 to 850 AD (from the late Sui Dynasty to the late Tang Dynasty) and the other is from 1580 to 2000 AD (after the late Ming Dynasty). Different natural disasters occurred synchronously, that is to say, when the drought occurred frequently, water disasters occurred frequently in the same periods. Frequencies of natural disasters, on the one hand, connected with climate changes and development course of ancient cities, while on the other, related closely to population changes. The excessive exploitation of natural resources and human disturbance and damages to ecological environment are the major reasons for the increased drought and water disasters.     

新疆绿洲地区过去2000年古城分布与气候变化的关系（英文）

The study on the relationship of abandoned settlements and climate change in the oases could provide a historical reference for understanding human responses to present and future global warming in the arid zone. A total of 554 abandoned historical settlements in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, were used to examine the relationship between abandoned settlements and temperature change over the past 2000 years. The analysis covered dynastic epochs from the Han Dynasty(206BC–220AD) to the Qing Dynasty(1644AD– 1911AD) in the oases of Xinjiang. Greater density of settlements was found at the oases larger than 2000 km~2, which were more stable and less sensitive to climate change compared to smaller oases. Settlements flourished at small oases and the middle and lower reaches of rivers during warm periods and shrank back to piedmont basins and upstream alluvial fans during cold periods. These results demonstrated responses of oasis agriculture to climate change.     

中国登陆台风的统计预报

According to the measured data of typhoons going over the Chinese coasts in 1949-2002,a statistic relative equation showing the relation between the central atmospheric pressure of typhoons in a certain region at a certain period of time and their accumulation of frequency is established, and the concept of recurrence interval of typhoons is put forward, which is of actual significance for typhoon disaster reduction along the coastal area.     

1711-1982年云南雨季早晚序列的重建与夏季风变迁

According to the textual research into the historical documents dominated by archives yearly, as well as the verification with several other kinds of data, the later or earlier starting time of the rainy seasons in Yunnan during 1711-1982 has been reconstructed. The analysis indicates that there are obvious fluctuations in the starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan in a year or years, and long fluctuation on the decadal scale. The rainy season comes earlier in the early 18th century, later in the 19th century and earlier again in the 20th century. This reflects to a certain degree the gradual change of the summer monsoon in Yunnan. There exists an obvious quasi-3 years cycle, which is related to EI-Nino＇s quasi-3 years cycle, and a 11.3-year cycle which is notably related to the 11-year cycle of the solar activity of starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan. Meanwhile, the dissertation finds that the EI-Nino is very important to the starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan. The starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan often comes later or normally in the year of EI-Nino. However, there is an obvious imperfect period in such influence, which in turn may mean that there is a certain fluctuation in the effect of ENSO on Asian summer monsoon.     

Multi-scale temperature variations and their regional differences in China during the Medieval Climate Anomaly

The Medieval Climate Anomaly(MCA, AD950–1250) is the most recent warm period lasting for several hundred years and is regarded as a reference scenario when studying the impact of and adaptation to global and regional warming. In this study, we investigated the characteristics of temperature variations on decadal–centennial scales during the MCA for four regions(Northeast, Northwest, Central-east, and Tibetan Plateau) in China, based on high-resolution temperature reconstructions and related warm–cold records from historical documents. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition method is used to analyze the time series. The results showed that for China as a whole, the longest warm period during the last 2000 years occurred in the 10 th–13 th centuries, although there were multi-decadal cold intervals in the middle to late 12 th century. However, in the beginning and ending decades, warm peaks and phases on the decadal scale of the MCA for different regions were not consistent with each other. On the inter-decadal scale, regional temperature variations were similar from 950 to 1130; moreover, their amplitudes became smaller, and the phases did not agree well from 1130 to 1250. On the multi-decadal to centennial scale, all four regions began to warm in the early 10 th century and experienced two cold intervals during the MCA. However, the Northwest and Central-east China were in step with each other while the warm periods in the Northeast China and Tibetan Plateau ended about 40-50 years earlier. On the multi-centennial scale, the mean temperature difference between the MCA and Little Ice Age was significant in Northeast and Central-east China but not in the Northwest China and Tibetan Plateau. Compared to the mean temperature of the 20 th century, a comparable warmth in the MCA was found in the Central-east China, but there was a little cooling in Northeast China; meanwhile, there were significantly lower temperatures in Northwest China and Tibetan Plateau.     

过去150年长江三角洲地区的春季物候变化(英文)

Based on phenological records extracted from Chinese historical dairies, spring phenological series in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) of China since 1834 is reconstructed. Together with temperature and phenological observation data, the indicating significance of spring phenological series to temperature changes is also analyzed. The results are shown as follows. (1) From 1834 to 1893, spring phenodate in the YRD was fluctuated and gradually delayed, but, advanced greatly at the end of the 19th century. From 1900 to 1990, although the decadal variations were found, no clear multi-decadal trend was detected. From 1990 to 2010, spring phenodate showed significantly advance again. Compared with the mean value for 1977-1996, the latest phenodate occurred in 1893 with 27 days delayed while the earliest phenodate occurred in 2007 with 17 days advanced. (2) The correlation coefficients between spring phenodates and temperatures from December to March and from January to March exceeded -0.75 and -0.80, respectively, indicating that our phenodate series well presents the long-term changes of winter and early spring (especially from January to March) tem-peratures. These results provide important basic data for the long-term integrated tempera-ture reconstruction over China in the future work.     

Environmental changes during modern period from the record of Gaoyou Lake sediments,Jiangsu

Based on analysis of parameters of cores taken from Gaoyou Lake, including magnetic susceptibility, grain-size characteristics and sedimentary rate, environmental changes during the modern period were examined with the assistance of historical records and Gaoyou Lake water level materials. It is concluded that during the modern period a higher value of magnetic susceptibility and a lower sediment grain size coincided with a wet climate, while a lower value of magnetic susceptibility and a higher grain size were related with a dry climate. The results indicate that the climate in the 123 years period from 1880 to 2003AD can be divided into four stages： two low water level stages （1880-1915AD, 1948-1981AD） and two high water level stages （1915-1948AD, 1981-2003AD）. It appears that the regional climate generally underwent a dry-wet-dry-wet pattern in 30-year cycles. At present, it is at the end of a wet period, so the regional climate is expected to become dry in the near future. This conclusion corresponds with the climate records in the historical literature of the Gaoyou area, and it also matches with the climatic changes in North Jiangsu area.     

过去百年青藏高原耕地时空变化及其对土壤保持功能的影响（英文）

Geographically explicit historical land use and land cover datasets are increasingly required in studies of climatic and ecological effects of human activities. In this study, using historical population data as a proxy, the provincial cropland areas of Qinghai province and the Tibet Autonomous Region(TAR) for 1900, 1930, and 1950 were estimated. The cropland areas of Qinghai and the TAR for 1980 and 2000 were obtained from published statistical data with revisions. Using a land suitability for cultivation model, the provincial cropland areas for the 20 th century were converted into crop cover datasets with a resolution of 1 × 1 km. Finally, changes of sediment retention due to crop cover change were assessed using the sediment delivery ratio module of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST) model(version 3.3.1). There were two main results.(1) For 1950–1980 the fractional cropland area increased from 0.32% to 0.48% and land use clearly intensified in the Tibetan Plateau(TP), especially in the Yellow River–Huangshui River Valley(YHRV) and the midstream of the Yarlung Zangbo River and its two tributaries valley(YRTT). For other periods of the 20 th century, stability was the main trend.(2) For 1950–1980, sediment export increased rapidly in the Minhe autonomous county of the YHRV, and in the Nianchu River and Lhasa River basins of the YRTT, which means that sediment retention clearly decreased in these regions over this period. The results of this assessment provide scientific support for conservation planning, development planning, or restoration activities.     

Variations in the starting date of the pre-summer rainy season in South China, 1736–2010

The starting dates of the pre-summer rainy season during historical times （1736- 1911） in Fuzhou and Guangzhou of South China, were determined and reconstructed on the basis of historical documents in the Yu-Xue-Fen-Cun archive, together with observed features of precipitation during the pre-summer rainy season. In addition, starting dates of the pre-summer rainy season from 1953 in Fuzhou and from 1952 in Guangzhou were reconstructed for the instrumental period. These data allowed for analyses of inter-annual and inter-decadal changes in the starting dates of the pre-summer rainy season in South China over the past 300 years. Results show that the mean starting date of the pre-summer rainy season in South China was the first pentad of May; in addition, periodicities in the starting dates of 2-3 years, 10 years, and 40 years were detected during the period 1736-1911, and of 2-3 years, 10 years, and 22 years during the instrumental period. From 1736 to 1911, the earliest starting dates at Fuzhou and Guangzhou both occurred at the fourth pentad of April, while the latest starting dates were at the sixth pentad of May in Fuzhou and the first pentad of June in Guangzhou. During the instrumental period, the earliest and latest starting dates were at the fourth pentad of April and the first pentad of June, respectively, in both Fuzhou during 1953-2010 and Guangzhou during 1952-2010. The maximum difference between neighboring decades during 1736-1911 was 2.2 and 1.6 pentads in Fuzhou and Guangzhou, respectively, and during the instrumental period it was 2.5 and 2.4 pentads in Fuzhou and Guangzhou, respectively.     

长江中游江汉-洞庭盆地全新世以来水文环境演变与人类活动

Based on the comprehensive analyses of 18 core profiles’sedimentary sequences and lithological characteristics in Jianghan-Dongting Basin of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the spatial-temporal distribution of archeological sites in this area,we reconstructed the Holocene hydro-environmental evolution,and its relationship with human occupation.The comparison reveals:11.5–5.5 ka BP,the water level of rivers and lakes in the middle Yangtze River appeared a rising trend,concurrently,under the development of Neolithic culture and rice agricultural activities,human occupation extended from piedmont plain to inner basin plain in the study area.The water level fell in 5.5–4.0 ka BP,meanwhile,the number of human settlements of Qujialing-Shijiahe culture rapidly increased,especially in the inner basin plain.The water level rose again around 4.0 ka BP,floods spread massively in this period,which led to the decline of Shijiahe culture.The main causes for hydro-environmental evolution in the study area are the fluctuation of sea level and the aggradation of fluvio-lacustrine sediments.     

清代长江三角洲地区重大台风的对比分析

文章从清代的地方志、档案等文献史料中提取台风灾害信息并整理分类,根据台风及其次数的判断依据识别出清前期长江三角洲地区存在7次重大台风灾害,对这7次台风事件从台风过程、灾害分布与路径等方面进行了重建和对比分析。研究结果表明：清前期长三角地区的7次重大台风都发生于农历的六月、七月和八月,正值潮汛期,危害极大;台风过程持续时间短,一般在2~3 d左右。7次重大台风集中分布在浙江的杭州湾附近和长江下游流域两岸,主要在上海市的崇明、奉贤,浙江的余姚、嘉善等沿海地区登陆,然后沿岸向西北方向路径移动,与现代台风路径相比,接近于西北路径型或向北路径。在不同时空背景下台风对区域社会影响存在一定的差异性。     

基于历史文献资料的17世纪以来东北亚台风信息挖掘

西北太平洋地区,尤其是东北亚地区,台风灾害多发,这些地区的台风的运动轨迹变化会对社会经济发展带来深刻的影响。台风活动跨海而行,因此将东北亚几个国家的历史台风信息结合起来,才能看出其全貌。中日两国,最早通过仪器观测描述的台风路径分别为1879年和1878年,历史时期的东北亚地区台风事件只能靠历史文献来推测。以在台风路径的推测上具有问题（台风影响范围评估、详细记录时间的利用、2次相近台风的辨别等）的4次台风事件为例,讨论17世纪以来东北亚台风路径的推测方法。通过对台风个案的讨论,指出将致灾记录和感应记录相结合的可行性;利用仪器观测时期台风记录验证历史文献记载的有效性。相当一部分日记资料在古风暴研究中仍处于未被发掘状态。历史上流传至今的公用日记和各名家的家记,拥有较长的写作时间和较为均质的写作内容,可提高跨国界古风暴研究的时空分辨率。     

Statistic forecast of typhoons going over the Chinese coasts

According to the measured data of typhoons going over the Chinese coasts in 1949-2002, a statistic relative equation showing the relation between the central atmospheric pressure of typhoons in a certain region at a certain period of time and their accumulation of frequency is established, and the concept of recurrence interval of typhoons is put forward, which is of actual significance for typhoon disaster reduction along the coastal area.     

清代东蒙农业开发的消长及其气候变化背景

利用档案史料、建置沿革史研究成果等提取信息,建立历史代用指标序列,对清代（1644～1911）内蒙古东部地区农业开发的时空进程进行描述,结合当地农业气候资源条件（温度、降水）及清代气候变化（温度）探讨其中的气候因素。结果显示：（1）清代东蒙农业开发集中在现代年均≥10℃积温2500℃、降水量400mm以上区域之内;（2...     

Coincidence of abandoned settlements and climate change in the Xinjiang oases zone during the last 2000 years

The study on the relationship of abandoned settlements and climate change in the oases could provide a historical reference for understanding human responses to present and future global warming in the arid zone. A total of 554 abandoned historical settlements in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, were used to examine the relationship between abandoned settlements and temperature change over the past 2000 years. The analysis covered dynastic epochs from the Han Dynasty (206BC–220AD) to the Qing Dynasty (1644AD–1911AD) in the oases of Xinjiang. Greater density of settlements was found at the oases larger than 2000 km², which were more stable and less sensitive to climate change compared to smaller oases. Settlements flourished at small oases and the middle and lower reaches of rivers during warm periods and shrank back to piedmont basins and upstream alluvial fans during cold periods. These results demonstrated responses of oasis agriculture to climate change.     

长江三角洲7000年来的环境变迁

上海马桥遗址14C测年、环境地球化学、孢粉与环境磁学分析,结合搜集的研究区部分考古地层与自然地层分析,结果表明,7 200 aBP~5 300 aBP研究区经历一次海退过程,大面积土地裸露,为良渚时期人类活动提供了广阔空间。该期适宜的气候使当时人类活动频繁,文化发达,出现前所未有的玉器文化。良渚文化后期气候向干冷转化,导致一次大范围的洪泛期,使良渚文化衰落。考古地层、自然洪积层以及与建湖庆丰剖面气候曲线分析表明,研究区洪泛期与气候转型期相一致。考古地层与自然地层对比研究认为,洪水事件是研究区存在多期文化断层的重要原因。     

广东省台风灾害经济损失风险评估

广东省是我国的经济大省,频繁遭受台风侵袭,造成巨大的经济损失,进行区域台风灾害经济损失风险的定量评估在制定防灾减灾措施方面具有重要的理论意义.本文通过1954-2008年间全国台风灾情数据与台风强度等级构建直接经济损失率曲线,采用GIS空间分析方法,计算广东全省98个县域单元不同强度等级台风经济脆弱性,在计算不同强度等级台风登陆广东的频次基础上,确定不同强度等级台风发生可能性,最终采用风险评估模型,对不同强度等级台风造成的广东省经济损失风险进行定量评估.评估结果表明:广东台风灾害造成的经济损失风险在百亿元以上,微度、轻度、中度和重度分别达到104.67、144.29、77.53和135.91亿元.空间上表现为珠三角地区的广州市、东莞市、深圳市、中山市、珠海市风险最高,从珠江入海口地区向内地呈辐射状减弱,内陆远离海岸线的县市风险值最低,不足0.50亿元,随着台风强度由微度到中度增强,粤西风险高于粤东,当达到重度时,表现为粤东沿海高于粤西沿海的格局.     

全球变化与浙江洪水大势

根据历史和实测资料分析,对于全球变化下浙江近期洪水的运作大势,可得如下几点认识：（１）在未来的十几年之内,浙江省将处在枯水年占优势的阶段,但全球变化将使浙江洪水的时空变化更为剧烈,使沿海地区的洪水灾害更为严重。（２）由于浙江省的大中洪水一般都集中在太阳黑子活动的峰谷年前后,而近期的２００４年和２００９年分别是黑子活动第２３周期的峰年和谷年,因此这两年前后必须予以足够的重视。（３）浙江洪水对厄尔尼诺现象具有较好的响应,因此厄尔尼诺同年或次年也必须引起足够的重视。（４）根据浙江历史上的台风重灾年资料,利用灰色灾变预测分析,可得浙江未来第一、第二和第三个台风重灾年分别为２００１、２００４和２００８年,其中后两个台风重灾年与太阳黑子活动第２３周期的峰年和谷年是大致吻合的。（５）植被破坏、河道设障等人类活动会产生一定的增灾效应,从而使浙江未来的洪水灾害更为严重。     

清末以来开封市水域景观格局变化

借助历史资料和地理信息系统技术,对清末以来开封市水域景观格局的演变进行了分析。研究结果表明：(1) 100余年来,开封市水域景观面积和景观优势度经历了一个由小变大,然后又由大变小的过程。其中,2002年的水域面积为169.6 hm²,为1966年的35%,1898年的89%;景观优势度由1898年的14.6%增加到1966年的36.9%,到了2002年变为13.1%。(2) 从1898年到2002年开封市区水域斑块的数量在增加,最大斑块面积有减小的趋势,最小斑块面积也有减小的趋势,平均斑块面积趋于减小,但斑块密度却在增加,这充分反映了开封市水域景观破碎度的增加。(3) 从1898年到2002年开封市水域斑块的连通性指数是在不断减少的,只是近年来,才有增加的趋势;分维数也有增加的趋势。引起开封市水域景观格局变化的原因既有自然的因素,又有人为的因素。建国以前以黄河的影响为主,建国后人类活动的影响占有重要地位。