基于历史文献资料的17世纪以来东北亚台风信息挖掘

西北太平洋地区,尤其是东北亚地区,台风灾害多发,这些地区的台风的运动轨迹变化会对社会经济发展带来深刻的影响。台风活动跨海而行,因此将东北亚几个国家的历史台风信息结合起来,才能看出其全貌。中日两国,最早通过仪器观测描述的台风路径分别为1879年和1878年,历史时期的东北亚地区台风事件只能靠历史文献来推测。以在台风路径的推测上具有问题（台风影响范围评估、详细记录时间的利用、2次相近台风的辨别等）的4次台风事件为例,讨论17世纪以来东北亚台风路径的推测方法。通过对台风个案的讨论,指出将致灾记录和感应记录相结合的可行性;利用仪器观测时期台风记录验证历史文献记载的有效性。相当一部分日记资料在古风暴研究中仍处于未被发掘状态。历史上流传至今的公用日记和各名家的家记,拥有较长的写作时间和较为均质的写作内容,可提高跨国界古风暴研究的时空分辨率。

Search of Northeast Asia typhoon information based on historical documents since the 17th century

The Pacific Northwest, especially Northeast Asia, is a typhoon-prone area. Typhoon track changes in these regions will have a profound impact for social and economic development. Typhoons generally go across the land and sea. Therefore, it is possible to see the whole picture of the historical typhoon combined with the typhoon information of the Northeast Asia. In China and Japan, the first typhoon track information based on the instrumental observations are 1879 AD and 1878 AD; estimating historical typhoon events in Northeast Asia only rely on historical documents. In this paper, taking the 4 typhoon events (typhoons that affected Japan on 11-12 September 1650 AD; 15-17 September 1674 AD and typhoons that affected China on 7-8 and 13-16 August 1823 AD), which have typical features (evaluation of the typhoon-affected area, using the recorded detailed time, discrimination of the two typhoons, etc.) as examples, we discuss typhoon track estimation method in Northeast Asia since the 17th century. By discussing typhoon cases, the paper points out feasibility of combining the hazard records and meteorological records and effectiveness of instrumental typhoon records used to verify the historical documents. In the study of Paleotem pestology, quite a part of diary has not been utilized yet. The diary of the governing body or a distinguished family has a longer writing time and a homogeneous content writing, we can improve spatial and temporal resolution of cross-border study of Paleotem pestology.