1960—2020年千岛湖流域蒸散发演变特征及驱动因素解析

为探究淡水湖库及其所属流域蒸散发演变特征,以及气象因子对蒸散发的影响规律。以长三角地区最大的淡水人工湖和重要的水源地——千岛湖为研究对象,采用Penman-Monteith等方法与WEP-L分布式水文模型,分别计算千岛湖流域1960—2020年潜在蒸散发(ET₀)与实际蒸散发(ET_a),分析二者年际变化趋势及突变年份;采用偏微分方法分析气象因子对ET₀的敏感性和贡献度;采用归因分析法分析突变前后气象因子对ET_a变化的贡献度,并利用蒸发表面水分指数(E_MI)解析流域蒸发互补关系。结果表明:ET₀与ET_a多年平均值分别为1021.7和857.5 mm,整体皆呈减少趋势,倾向率分别为-0.77和-1.03 mm/a,二者均在1980和2000年左右发生突变;ET₀对相对湿度变化最为敏感,ET₀增加的月份主要是由于相对湿度、平均气温的正贡献,风速呈负贡献但相对较小,ET₀减少的月份主要是由于日照时数和风速的负贡献,平均气温呈正贡献但相对较小;ET_a空间分布呈现东高西低格局,驱动因素按贡献率大小为相对湿度>风速>日照时数>气温;流域整体存在“蒸发悖论”现象,日照时数和风速的减小是引起ET₀近年来下降的主要原因;E_MI愈趋近于1时,反映流域ET₀和ET_a取值愈加接近,蒸散发互补理论在千岛湖流域适用。     

调水前后南四湖藻密度及水环境要素变化特征

为探究大规模调水输入背景下南四湖生态环境演变特征,采用多种非参数统计方法综合分析2010—2020年南四湖藻密度、总氮（TN）、总磷（TP）、氨氮、叶绿素a（Chl.a）、五日生化需氧量（BOD₅）、高锰酸盐指数（COD_Mn）年际年内变化规律和影响因素.结果表明：2010—2020年南四湖上、下级湖水质综合污染指数年均值范围分别为0.759~0.945、0.719~0.926,水质总体逐渐改善,但TN单项污染指数存在超标现象,主要可能与入湖河流中高浓度氮输入有关.受南水北调东线工程运行初期与严峻旱情的影响,南四湖藻密度、TP、氨氮、Chl.a在2013—2015年发生突变,随后均呈增加趋势.南水北调东线工程的运行对南四湖藻密度的年内波动影响强烈,调水工程运行后每年10月份出现峰值,其中2016年上级湖藻密度高达520.0×10⁴ cells/L.湖区藻密度不仅与氮磷质量比（TN/TP）、TP、COD_Mn、Chl.a呈显著相关,还与降雨、水温密切相关.在南四湖生态环境保护治理过程中,应强化关键水质指标的污染监管与治理,完善调水方案和水生态危机应急管理办法.     

高原湖泊水质变化趋势及驱动因素研究:以四川邛海为例

邛海是四川第二大湖泊,地处高原,距离西昌市城区不足5 km,生态位置重要。本文以近20年邛海湖区主要水质监测数据为依据,采用M-K检验定量解析了水生态环境历史变化特征,建立邛海污染物浓度、营养状态指标的时空对应关系,分析其驱动因素,识别风险并提出对策建议。结果表明:(1)1980s-2000年是有记录以来邛海水质最差的时期,总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)浓度远超地表水Ⅲ类标准;(2)2003—2020年,邛海氨氮(NH₃-N)、高锰酸盐指数(COD_Mn)年际变化总体呈下降趋势,TN、TP、透明度、溶解氧浓度年际变化趋势总体不明显,COD_Mn、TN、TP浓度在研究期间出现多个显著变化过程;(3) 2003—2020年,邛海营养状态整体为中营养水平,综合营养状态指数TLI(Σ)为33.82±6.88,叶绿素a(Chl.a)浓度为(4.234±3.903) μg/L,TLI(Σ)和Chl.a浓度年际变化没有显著趋势;(4)多年数据统计表明,邛海宾馆所在区域水质最差,邛海湖心水质最好,2003—2020年COD_Mn、TP等指标最大单月浓度均出现在邛海宾馆所在水域;(5)COD_Mn浓度在枯水期低于丰水期,NH₃-N浓度在枯水期高于丰水期,TP浓度高值和低值集中出现在枯水期,TN各月浓度没有显著差异,Chl.a浓度与COD_Mn、TP、NH₃-N浓度呈显著正相关,从水体中氮磷比来看,磷是邛海藻类生长限制性元素;(6)面源污染主要通过邛海大小支流入湖,环湖湿地对邛海面源污染削减效果总体有限,未来邛海发生水华的风险较大,建议以小流域为单元推进陆源污染控制,按照“游在邛海,吃、住在城区”的理念布局旅游发展,探索用“物理+生态”方式调控和预防邛海水生态系统失衡的问题。     

2004年12月26日印度尼西亚MW9.0大震前后震源机制一致性变化特征研究

本文选取2004年12月26日发生在印度尼西亚西北近海、震中位于巽他海沟的东侧的M_W9.0地震的余震分布空间范围为研究区域,分析了该区域震源机制,并利用震源机制和构造应力场的一致性参数a进行了地震检验。研究结果表明,M_W≥7.5地震之前,都有参数a降低的现象,M_W9.0地震前,a值都有动荡起伏的情况。该研究区长达数千千米,而连续发生的M_W≥5.0地震的震源机制与构造应力场一致,应当不是随机现象,似可视为具某种前兆意义的现象。     

基于通径分析法的太湖蓝藻水华定量气象评估模型

利用2005-2017年太湖周边区域气象观测资料和基于遥感解译的蓝藻水华信息,基于信息量权数法构建太湖蓝藻水华影响程度指数（简称为蓝藻指数）,应用通径分析法,分析年平均气温（T_y）、1-3月平均气温（T_1-3）、年降水量（R_y）、6-7月降水量（R_6-7）和年高温日数（D_Tmax）5个气象因子对蓝藻水华影响的直接效应和间接效应,在此基础上构建太湖蓝藻水华气象评估模型.结果表明,2007年蓝藻指数值最大,为0.759,2017年其次,为0.709,2009年最小,仅为0.113,蓝藻指数与实际情况基本相符;直接通径系数中T_y和T_1-3为正值,其余为负值,表明T_y和T_1-3对蓝藻水华的发生发展具有正效应,而R_y、R_6-7和D_Tmax具有负效应,总通径系数绝对值排序为：T_y > T_1-3 > R_y > R_6-7 > D_Tmax,由此可以反映各气象因子对蓝藻水华影响程度的权重.根据模型计算的综合气象指数与蓝藻指数之间的相关系数达0.826,通过0.01显著性检验,根据百分位法将蓝藻指数和气象指数进行等级划分,分类总精度为84.6%,其中中度以上达90.9%,表明模型能够较好地反映综合气象因子与蓝藻水华发生发展程度的关系,在水体富营养化程度没有明显改善的情况下,可用于太湖蓝藻水华定量气象评估.上述研究结果有助于更好地理解环境因子、尤其是气象因子在蓝藻生长和水华形成机制中所起的作用,从而为太湖蓝藻水华的监测、预测预警和精细化防控提供理论依据.     

2017年精河MS6.6地震前地磁异常特征分析

2017年8月9精河发生M_S6.6地震,距震中300km范围内的温泉台、克拉玛依台、乌鲁木齐台捕捉到此次地震前的地磁异常信息,本文对此进行了分析和总结,结论如下：①地磁谐波振幅比反应了观测点深部电阻率变化,2016年呼图壁M_S6.2、此次精河M_S6.6地震均发生在克拉玛依台地磁谐波振幅比异常下降之后的转折和恢复阶段;②震前83天、21天沿北天山断裂带分布的地磁台站逐日比和加卸载响应比均成组出现超限的高值,且异常高值的空间分布与震中位置有一定关联;③全国大陆地磁台站震前34天出现低点位移突变分界线,且异常集中于震中附近。     

太湖有色溶解有机物对水体总吸收贡献的遥感估算

有色溶解有机物(CDOM)是决定自然水体水色的主要溶解物质,其吸光能力和光化降解产物对水体初级生产力和碳循环过程具有重要影响.以太湖为研究区,2004年10月、2008年10月、2010年4月和2011年1月和3月共5期实测数据,采集了333个有效样点,分析不同时期CDOM对水体总吸收的贡献,并利用遥感技术估算[a_CDOM/a_t](412).结果表明:不同时期[a_CDOM/a_t](412)均值变化明显,2011年[a_CDOM/a_t](412)的均值最大(0.369),高于所有样点[a_CDOM/a_t](412)均值(0.295±0.139);201004期的[a_CDOM/a_t](412)在0.046~0.455之间变化,其均值最小(0.236±0.108);200410和200810两期数据[a_CDOM/a_t](412)均值相差不大.竺山湾、梅梁湾与整个太湖相比,竺山湾[a_CDOM/a_t](412)均值较高,对太湖[a_CDOM/a_t](412)的贡献较大,而梅梁湾[a_CDOM/a_t](412)均值与整个太湖相差较小.利用多元线性模型估算[a_CDOM/a_t](412)精度较高(n=333,RMSE=34.60%).悬浮泥沙和浮游色素是影响[a_CDOM/a_t](412)遥感估算精度的主要原因,浮游色素的吸收造成[a_CDOM/a_t](412)的值被低估,而悬浮泥沙的吸收使得[a_CDOM/a_t](412)的值被高估,并且悬浮泥沙是影响CDOM吸收的主要原因.     

近40年来南四湖湿地NDVI变化特征及其控制因子分析

利用Landsat系列卫星的MSS、TM和ETM+遥感数据,计算了研究区的归一化植被指数(NDVI),并以此为湿地植被活动的指标,研究1973 2011年间该湿地植被变化特征及年内季节变化特征,揭示植被活动在年内和年际变化的控制因子以及湿地植被对于气候变化、人类活动和极端干旱事件的响应特征.结果表明:(1)近40年来南四湖湿地植被各个季节的变化特征不尽相同.春季NDVI呈现先降低后增加的特征,主要先后受到研究区围垦、渔业养殖等人为活动和气候变化(增温)的影响;夏季和冬季的NDVI呈现显著降低趋势,主要受到围垦、渔业养殖等人类活动的影响;秋季NDVI的变化不显著.(2)年内季节变化方面,湿地植被面积和NDVI都呈现单峰的变化特征,从春季开始增加,在夏季末(全年的第202和205 d)达到最大值,然后开始下降,到冬季降至最低.植被的年内季节变化特征主要受到月均温度的控制.(3)干旱在一定程度上不是湖泊湿地NDVI增加的限制因子.干旱导致湖泊水位下降,滨湖滩地及湖底露出,可能会促进湿地植被生长和植被面积的扩大,使得湿地NDVI增加.     

长江中下游大型湖泊水体固有光学特性:Ⅰ.吸收

吸收系数是水体固有光学特性的重要组成部分,也是构建水色参数高精度遥感模型的基础,具有重要的研究意义.本文针对长江中下游三大淡水湖——鄱阳湖(2010 10、2011 08)、太湖(2008 10、2011 08)和巢湖(2009 10)进行5次野外实验,以International Ocean Colour Coordinating Group(IOCCG)2000年报告"Remote Sensing of Ocean Colour in Coastal,and Other Optically-Complex,Waters"为基础,对水体不同光学主导类型进行分类;并根据a_d(非色素颗粒物吸收)、a_ph(浮游植物色素吸收)、a_g(有色可溶性有机物吸收)等不同主导类型光谱曲线特征差异,引入a_d-g(主导类型a_d、a_g、a_d-a_g的合并类型)和a_ph-related(主导类型a_d-a_ph、a_d-a_ph-a_g的合并类型)类型,对主导类型进行归纳合并.结果显示:秋季,鄱阳湖、太湖、巢湖的主导类型较为单一,分别为a_d、a_d-a_g、a_d-a_ph-a_g;夏季,鄱阳湖和太湖同为两种类型共同主导,分别为a_d、a_d-a_g,a_d-a_ph-a_g、a_d-a_ph.总体来说,鄱阳湖夏、秋季和太湖秋季主导类型都属于a_d-g类型,而太湖夏季和巢湖秋季则属于a_ph-related类型.另外,分别针对Gons和Gitelson叶绿素a模型假设条件进行验证,发现不同湖泊水体及不同主导类型下其适用性程度不一致.     

岷县漳县Ms6.6地震前武都、天水钻孔应变异常变化分析

2013年7月22日岷县漳县M_s6.6地震前2~3月内,武都、天水应变资料出现了不同程度的异常变化,其中两台的NW道异常都非常显著,与2003年、2004年2次岷县地震前武都应变出现的异常很相似,都有β₁、β₂、γ₁三阶段前兆异常特征。     

Trend,periodicity and abrupt change in streamflow of the East River,the Pearl River basin

The East River in the Pearl River basin, China, plays a vital role in the water supply for mega‐cities within and in the vicinity of the Pearl River Delta. Knowledge of statistical variability of streamflow is therefore important for water resources management in the basin. This study analyzed streamflow from four hydrological stations on the East River for a period of 1951–2009, using ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), continuous wavelet transform (CWT) technique, scanning t and F tests. Results indicated increasing/decreasing streamflow in the East River basin before/after the 1980s. After the early 1970s, the high/low flow components were decreasing/increasing. CWT‐based analysis demonstrates a significant impact of water reservoirs on the periodicity of streamflow. Scanning t and F test indicates that significantly abrupt changes in streamflow are largely influenced by both water reservoirs construction and precipitation changes. Thus, changes of streamflow, which are reflected by variations of trend, periodicity and abrupt change, are due to both water reservoir construction and precipitation changes. Further, the changes of volume of streamflow in the East River are in good agreement with precipitation changes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multiscale variability of streamflow changes in the Pearl River basin,China

The Pearl River basin bears the heavy responsibility for the water supply for the neighboring cities such as Macau, Hong Kong and others. Therefore, effective water resource management is crucial for sustainable use of water resource. However, good knowledge of changing properties of streamflow changes is the first step into the effective water resource management. With this in mind, stability and variability of streamflow changes in the Pearl River basin is thoroughly analyzed based on monthly streamflow data covering last half century using Mann–Kendall trend test and scanning t- and F-test techniques. The results indicate: (1) significant increasing monthly streamflow is observed mainly in January–April, June and October–December. Monthly streamflow during May–September is in not significant changes. Besides, stations characterized by significant monthly streamflow changes are located in the middle and the lower Pearl River basin; (2) changing points of monthly streamflow series are detected mainly during mid-1960s, early 1970s, mid-1970s, early 1980s and early 1990s and these periods are roughly in good agreement with those of annual, winter and summer precipitation across the Pearl River basin, implying tremendous influences of precipitation changes on streamflow variations; (3) abrupt behaviors tend to be ambiguous from the upper to the lower Pearl River basin, which should be due to enhancing combined effects of abrupt changes of precipitation. The streamflow comes to be lower stability in recent decades. However, high stability of streamflow changes are observed at hydrological stations in the lower Pearl River basin. The results of this study will be of great scientific and practical merits in terms of effective water resource management in the Pearl River basin under the influences of climate changes and human activities.     

Effect of reservoir construction on suspended sediment load in a large river system: thresholds and complex response

Dam construction greatly alters the channel boundary of rivers, making the dammed river system a human‐controlled system. Based on hydrometric data in the upper Changjiang River basin, the change in behaviour of sediment transport of some dammed rivers was studied. As a result, some phenomena of threshold and complex response were found. When the coefficient (C_r,a) of actual runoff regulation by reservoirs, defined as the ratio of total capacity of reservoirs to annual runoff input, is smaller than 10%, suspended sediment load at Yichang station, the control station of the Changjiang River, shows a mild decreasing trend. When this coefficient becomes larger than 10%, suspended sediment load decreases sharply. The coefficient of 10% can be regarded as a threshold. The C_r,a of 10% is also a threshold, when the variation of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) with C_r,a at Yichang station is considered. The impacts of reservoir construction can be divided into several stages, including road construction, dam building and closure, water storage and sediment trapping. During these stages, some complex response was identified. At the station below the dam, SSC increases and reaches a maximum, and then declines sharply. This phenomenon was found on the main‐stem and several major tributaries of the upper Changjiang River. In the Minjiang River, where a series of dams were built successively, the response of SSC is more complicated. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A model to predict stream water temperature across the conterminous USA

Stream water temperature (t_s) is a critical water quality parameter for aquatic ecosystems. However, t_s records are sparse or nonexistent in many river systems. In this work, we present an empirical model to predict t_s at the site scale across the USA. The model, derived using data from 171 reference sites selected from the Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow database, describes the linear relationship between monthly mean air temperature (t_a) and t_s. Multiple linear regression models are used to predict the slope (m) and intercept (b) of the t_a–t_s linear relation as a function of climatic, hydrologic and land cover characteristics. Model performance to predict t_s resulted in a mean Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.78 across all sites. Application of the model to predict t_s at additional 89 nonreference sites with a higher human alteration yielded a mean Nash–Sutcliffe value of 0.45. We also analysed seasonal thermal sensitivity (m) and found strong hysteresis in the t_a–t_s relation. Drainage area exerts a strong control on m in all seasons, whereas the cooling effect of groundwater was only evident for the spring and fall seasons. However, groundwater contributions are negatively related to mean t_s in all seasons. Finally, we found that elevation and mean basin slope are negatively related to mean t_s in all seasons, indicating that steep basins tend to stay cooler because of shorter residence times to gain heat from their surroundings. This model can potentially be used to predict climate change impacts on t_s across the USA. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sediment transferring function of the lower reaches of the Yellow River influenced by drainage basin factors and human activities

Since 1986, with a sharp decrease in water dis-charges, the Yellow River has entered a period charac-terized by low discharges and seasonally occurring dry-ups[1,2]. Since 1999, more strict management of water diversion has been imposed, and therefore the dry-ups have been well under control. However, the lower reaches of the Yellow River is still predominated by low-discharges, and has become a man-induced shrinking river. In the past 40 years, significant effect of soil and water conservat…     

Correlation of vertical electrical sounding and electrical borehole log data for groundwater exploration

We have correlated the longitudinal unit conductance CL obtained from interpreted vertical electrical sounding data with the formation resistivity R_t and the formation resistivity factor F, obtained by carrying out electrical borehole logging. Interpreted geophysical data of eleven soundings and two electrical borehole log records are used for the analysis. The geophysical data used were acquired in a sedimentary basin. The study area is called Lower Maner Basin located in the province of Andhra Pradesh, India. Vertical electrical soundings were carried out using a Schlumberger configuration with half current electrode separation varying from 600–1000 m. For logging the two boreholes, a Widco logger‐model 3200 PLS was used. True formation resistivity R_t was calculated from a resistivity log. Formation resistivity factor F was also calculated at various depths using R_t values. An appreciable inverse relation exists between the correlated parameters. The borehole resistivity R_t and the formation resistivity factor F decrease with the increase in the longitudinal unit conductance CL. We have shown the use of such a relation in computing borehole resistivity R_t and formation resistivity factor F at sites that posses only vertical electrical sounding data, with a fair degree of accuracy. Validation of the correlation is satisfactory. Scope for updating the correlation is discussed. Significance and applications of the relation for exploration of groundwater, namely to update the vertical electrical sounding data interpretation by translating the vertical electrical sounding data into electrical borehole log parameters, to facilitate correlations studies and to estimate the porosity (φ), permeability (K) and water saturation S_w of water bearing zones are discussed.     

Suitability of satellite-based hydro-climate variables and machine learning for streamflow modeling at various scale watersheds

ABSTRACT

Streamflow modeling is essential to investigate processes in the hydrologic cycle and important for water resource management application. However, in-situ hydrologic data paucity, because of various factors such as economic, political, instrument malfunctioning, and poor spatial distribution, makes the modeling process challenging. To overcome this limitation, we introduced a satellite remote sensing-based machine learning approach – boosted regression tree (BRT) – that integrates spatial land surface and climate variables that describe the sub-units, and applied it in three variable size watersheds in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB), USA. The model simulation results were tested using an independent dataset and showed Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.80, 0.76, and 0.69 for the UMRB, Illinois River Watershed, and Raccoon River Watershed, respectively. In addition, we compared the performance of the machine learning models with existing process-based modeling results. Overall performance is comparable with the process-based approaches, but with significantly less modeling effort and resources.     

Decreasing trend of sediment transfer function of the Upper Yellow River,China, in response to human activity and climate change

Abstract

An index (F_s) for sediment transfer function is introduced, based on the sediment budget at the channel scale. The purpose of this study is two-fold: to gain a deeper insight into how F_s is influenced by natural and human factors, and to provide some new knowledge for decision making in the management of the Upper Yellow River, China. Since 1960, the F_s of the Lanzhou to Toudaoguai reach of the Upper Yellow River shows a decreasing trend. At the drainage basin level, the decreased F_s can be explained by changes in precipitation and air temperature, as well as by a number of variables describing human activity, such as reservoir regulation, water diversion, and soil and water conservation. The higher temperature reduces the transfer function, while the larger runoff coefficient increases it. At the channel level, the decreased F_s can be explained by a number of variables of flow and sediment input. Three countermeasures for restoration of the F_s are suggested.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz     

长江与黄河入海活性硅输送规律及变化趋势

根据长江与黄河各一个完整水文年的调查数据,并结合历史资料分析了我国这两条大型河流活性硅((RSi,RSi=溶解硅(DSi)+生物硅(BSi))的入海通量及长时间序列的变化规律与影响因素.结果表明,长江与黄河RSi的组成存在显著的差异,二者水体中BSi/RSi的平均比值分别为0.22和0.49;黄河DSi的年平均浓度为长江的74%,而BSi年平均浓度却是长江的3倍.黄河水体中相对较高的BSi浓度反映了黄河流域水体浑浊度与土壤侵蚀程度较高,源自黄土高原高的泥沙输送量是导致黄河水体中BSi浓度较长江高的主要原因.长江与黄河下游RSi通量在丰水期、平水期与枯水期的比值分别为5.3∶3.1∶1.6与3.8∶3.4∶2.8,长江半数以上的RSi入海通量是在丰水期输出的,而黄河在3个时期的差异不明显.相比于径流的变化,1958-2014年间长江DSi通量变化主要是由DSi浓度的变化引起的,流域气候变化(如温度变化)是其浓度及其通量年代际变化的重要原因;而黄河1985-2001年间DSi通量下降是由于径流量与DSi浓度降低的双重原因引起的.气候变化,特别是温度的变化会对流域硅的风化速率与硅的产出产生重要影响,但其具体的影响有待进一步揭示.     

The 1800-year variation of the lower Yellow River bank breachings in relation to the drainage basin vegetation reconstructed using cave stalagmite records

Rivers are closely related to climate, and the hydrogeomorphic features and stability of river channels respond sensitively to climatic change. However, the history of instrumental observations of climatic, hydrological and channel changes is short, notably limiting our ability to understand the complex river responses to long-term climate change and human activity. In this study, we show that cave stalagmite records reflected the variations in precipitation and temperature in the Yellow River basin, and the net primary productivity (NPP) of vegetation over the past 1800 years can therefore be reconstructed. We found that the reconstructed annual mean precipitation (P_m) and NPP closely related to the 1800-year variation of the lower Yellow River (LYR) channel instability indexed by the frequency of the LYR levee breaching events (LBEs) (F_b) derived from historical documents. The temporal variations in P_m, NPP and F_b exhibited an anti-phase relationship (negative correlation) and in-phase relationship (positive correlation), referred to as Type I and Type II relationships, respectively. The two types alternately appeared, dividing the studied period into several sub-periods. Type I occurred when the vegetation remained in a quasi-natural condition, and Type II occurred when the vegetation had been altered by humans to some degree. These features reflect complex river behaviours in response to climate change and human activity and may be explained by the interaction between climate, vegetation and human activity on the millennial timescale. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.