A spatial analysis of hydro‐climatic and vegetation condition trends in the Yellow River basin

Stream‐gauge data indicate that the flow of the Yellow River has declined during the past several decades. Zero flow in sections of the river channel, i.e. the Yellow River drying‐up phenomenon, has occurred since the 1970s. In this paper we present an analysis of changes in the spatial patterns of climatic and vegetation condition data in the Yellow River basin based on data from meteorological stations and satellites. The climatic data are from 1960 to 2000 and the vegetation condition data are from 1982 to 2000. The angular‐distance‐weighted interpolation method is used to get climatic data coverage from station observations. The spatial distribution of tendency is detected with Student's t‐test. The spatial patterns of climatic and vegetation condition change was analysed together with the statistical data on human activities. The analysis indicates that the precipitation decreases and temperature increases in most parts of the Yellow River basin, the evaporative demand of the atmosphere decreases in the upper reaches and increases in the lower reaches, and human activities have improved the vegetation condition in the irrigation districts. The Loess Plateau, the Tibetan Plateau, and the irrigation districts are respectively suggested as precipitation, temperature, and human activity hot spots of the Yellow River drying‐up phenomenon. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

近1200 a来黄河下游梁山泊沉积记录的环境变迁

利用梁山泊670 cm柱状岩芯沉积物,基于精确的AMS-~(14)C年代测定,通过高分辨率的粒度、磁化率、总有机碳、C/N比值等环境代用指标的综合分析,并结合历史文献记载,初步揭示了1200 a来黄河下游地区平原湖泊沉积特征及环境演化历史.结果表明,梁山泊环境演化大致分为5个阶段:790-940 AD期间,为低湖面的沼泽沉积环境,气候冷干;940-1215 AD期间,屡次受到黄河决溢洪水影响,湖盆扩张,湖泊水位上升,为梁山泊极盛期,气候暖湿;1215-1310 AD期间,黄河夺淮入黄海,湖区淤积严重,湖泊萎缩减小;1310-1470 AD期间,再次受到黄河决溢洪水影响,水位上升,面积扩张,但逊于极盛期;1470 AD至现代,黄河河道进一步南移,远离梁山泊,湖盆淤积抬高,梁山泊最终消失,直到1855AD,黄河第6次大改道北移,湖泊再次受到黄河洪水影响,由于前期受到泥沙淤积抬高,该地区仅作为黄河泥沙承载区.在气候变化大背景下,黄河改道决溢是梁山泊演化的主因.     

Assessing climate change impacts on the ecohydrology of the Jinghe River basin in the Loess Plateau,China

Abstract

Quantifying the impacts of climate change on the hydrology and ecosystem is important in the study of the Loess Plateau, China, which is well known for its high erosion rates and ecosystem sensitivity to global change. A distributed ecohydrological model was developed and applied in the Jinghe River basin of the Loess Plateau. This model couples the vegetation model, BIOME BioGeochemicalCycles (BIOME-BGC) and the distributed hydrological model, Water and Energy transfer Process in Large river basins (WEP-L). The WEP-L model provided hydro-meteorological data to BIOME-BGC, and the vegetation parameters of WEP-L were updated at a daily time step by BIOME-BGC. The model validation results show good agreement with field observation data and literature values of leaf area index (LAI), net primary productivity (NPP) and river discharge. Average climate projections of 23 global climate models (GCMs), based on three emissions scenarios, were used in simulations to assess future ecohydrological responses in the Jinghe River basin. The results show that global warming impacts would decrease annual discharge and flood season discharge, increase annual NPP and decrease annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP). Increasing evapotranspiration (ET) due to air temperature increase, as well as increases in precipitation and LAI, are the main reasons for the decreasing discharge. The increase in annual NPP is caused by a greater increase in gross primary productivity (GPP) than in plant respiration, whilst the decrease in NEP is caused by a larger increase in heterotrophic respiration than in NPP. Both the air temperature increase and the precipitation increase may affect the changes in NPP and NEP. These results present a serious challenge for water and land management in the basin, where mitigation/adaption measures for climate change are desired.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Yang

Citation Peng, H., Jia, Y.W., Qiu, Y.Q., and Niu, C.W., 2013. Assessing climate change impacts on the ecohydrology of the Jinghe River basin in the Loess Plateau, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (3), 651–670.     

Sediment transferring function of the lower reaches of the Yellow River influenced by drainage basin factors and human activities

Since 1986, with a sharp decrease in water dis-charges, the Yellow River has entered a period charac-terized by low discharges and seasonally occurring dry-ups[1,2]. Since 1999, more strict management of water diversion has been imposed, and therefore the dry-ups have been well under control. However, the lower reaches of the Yellow River is still predominated by low-discharges, and has become a man-induced shrinking river. In the past 40 years, significant effect of soil and water conservat…     

Wide river or narrow river: Future river training strategy for Lower Yellow River under global change

The choice of a river training strategy is extremely important for the Lower Yellow River (LYR). Currently, the wide-river training strategy applies in the training of the LYR. However, remarkable changes in the hydrological processes in the Yellow River basin, as well as immediate pressure from socio-economic development in the Yellow River basin, make it necessary to consider if there is a possibility to change the river training strategy from wide-river training to narrow-river training. This research investigates the impacts of different river training strategies on the LYR through numerical simulations. A one-dimensional (1-D) model was used to simulate the fluvial processes for the future 50 years and a three-dimensional (3-D) model was applied to study typical floods. The study focused on river morphology, the results show that if the present decreasing trend in both water discharge and sediment load persists, the deposition rate in the LYR will further decrease no matter what strategy is applied. Especially, narrow-river training can achieve the aim to increase the sediment transport capacity in the LYR compared with wide-river training. However, if the incoming water and sediment load recovers to the mean level of the last century, main channel shrinkage due to sedimentation inevitably occurs for both wide-river and narrow-river training. Most importantly, this study shows that narrow-river training reduces the deposition amount over the whole LYR, but it provides little help in alleviating the development of the “suspended river”. Instead, narrow-river training can cause aggradation in the transitional reach where the river pattern changes from highly wandering to meandering, further worsening the “hump deposition” there. Because of uncertainty regarding future changes in hydrological processes in the Yellow River basin, and the lack of feasible engineering measures to mitigate “suspended river” and “hump deposition” problems in the LYR, caution should be exercised with respect to changes in the river training strategy for the LYR.     

Temporal trends of hydro‐climatic variables and runoff response to climatic variability and vegetation changes in the Yiluo River basin,China

The Yiluo River is the largest tributary for the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River below Sanmenxia Dam. Changes of the hydrological processes in the Yiluo River basin, influenced by the climatic variability and human activities, can directly affect ecological integrity in the lower reach of the Yellow River. Understanding the impact of the climatic variability and human activities on the hydrological processes in the Yiluo River basin is especially important to maintain the ecosystem integrity and sustain the society development in the lower reach of the Yellow River basin. In this study, the temporal trends of annual precipitation, air temperature, reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) and runoff during 1961–2000 in the Yiluo River basin were explored by the Mann‐Kendall method (M‐K method), Yamamoto method and linear fitted model. The impacts of the climatic variability and vegetation changes on the annual runoff were discussed by the empirical model and simple water balance model and their contribution to change of annual runoff have been estimated. Results indicated that (i) significant upwards trend for air temperature and significant downwards trend both for precipitation and ET₀ were detected by the M‐K method at 95% confidence level. And the consistent trends were obtained by the linear fitted model; (ii) the abrupt change started from 1987 detected by the M‐K method and Yamamoto method, and so the annual runoff during 1961–2000 was divided into two periods: baseline period (1961–1986) and changeable period (1987–2000); and (iii) the vegetation changes were the main cause for change of annual runoff from baseline period to changeable period, and climatic variability contributed a little to the change of annual runoff of the Yiluo River. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中昆仑山区封闭湖泊湖面波动及其气候意义

封闭湖泊湖面波动是气候变化很敏感的指示器,其水量平衡特征对此可给予理论证明,进而可将这种灵敏度表示为Z=A_l/A_b=(P_b-E_b)/(E_l—P_l)。中昆仑山区的封闭湖泊自17000a B.P.以来曾经历了三次高湖面,即17000a B.P.前后、12000a B.P.前后及8000—6000a B.P.。其中第一期的高湖面与高山区冰体消融、西风带位置的变动及土壤湿度、太阳辐射值的变化有关,第二次的高湖面是湖泊总体收缩下降过程中出现的相对稳定或短暂回升,第三期的高湖面是全球性温湿气候的产物。理论探讨与实例分析均说明,封闭湖泊湖面波动不仅对无人类观测记录的地质历史时期的气候变化有着重要的指示性,而且可以弥补人类观测资料的不足,是研究气候变化的理想场所。     

Decreasing trend of sediment transfer function of the Upper Yellow River,China, in response to human activity and climate change

Abstract

An index (F_s) for sediment transfer function is introduced, based on the sediment budget at the channel scale. The purpose of this study is two-fold: to gain a deeper insight into how F_s is influenced by natural and human factors, and to provide some new knowledge for decision making in the management of the Upper Yellow River, China. Since 1960, the F_s of the Lanzhou to Toudaoguai reach of the Upper Yellow River shows a decreasing trend. At the drainage basin level, the decreased F_s can be explained by changes in precipitation and air temperature, as well as by a number of variables describing human activity, such as reservoir regulation, water diversion, and soil and water conservation. The higher temperature reduces the transfer function, while the larger runoff coefficient increases it. At the channel level, the decreased F_s can be explained by a number of variables of flow and sediment input. Three countermeasures for restoration of the F_s are suggested.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz     

Run-off affected by climate and anthropogenic changes in a large semi-arid river basin

A rapid reduction in run-off has been observed in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin in recent decades. Understanding the contributions of climate change and human activities, such as vegetation restoration and water consumption, to surface water resource reduction has become urgent and very important for future regional planning. Here, we use attribution approaches to explore the effects of climate change and human activities on run-off over the past six decades. The results showed that the observed annual run-off at Tongguan station, which is located within the mainstream of the Yellow River, exhibited a significant decreasing trend of −0.69 mm year⁻¹ (p < .01) and varied from −0.28 to −1.46 mm year⁻¹ (p < .01) in the eight selected tributaries from 1960 to 2015. Two relatively abrupt changes in the double mass curves occurred around 1979 and 1999; compared with Period 1 (P1; 1960–1979), the average catchment run-off decreased 32% during Period 2 (P2; 1980–1999) and up to 49% during Period 3 (P3; 2000–2015). We calculated that approximately 29% of the reduction in the run-off during P2 and 18% during P3 were attributed to climate change. Increased surface water consumption resulted in effective run-off reduction, with relative contributions of approximately 27% and 28% during P2 and P3, respectively. With the implementation of the “Grain-for-Green” project, the vegetation coverage rapidly increased from 36% in P1 to 52% in P3 and reduced run-off by 35% during P3. These findings explain the run-off reduction and benefit water resource management in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin.     

Sensitivity of hydrological variables to climate change in the Haihe River basin,China

Using the defined sensitivity index, the sensitivity of streamflow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture to climate change was investigated in four catchments in the Haihe River basin. Climate change contained three parts: annual precipitation and temperature change and the change of the percentage of precipitation in the flood season (P_f). With satisfying monthly streamflow simulation using the variable infiltration capacity model, the sensitivity was estimated by the change of simulated hydrological variables with hypothetical climatic scenarios and observed climatic data. The results indicated that (i) the sensitivity of streamflow would increase as precipitation or P_f increased but would decrease as temperature increased; (ii) the sensitivity of evapotranspiration and soil moisture would decrease as precipitation or temperature increased, but it to P_f varied in different catchments; and (iii) hydrological variables were more sensitive to precipitation, followed by P_f, and then temperature. The nonlinear response of streamflow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture to climate change could provide a reference for water resources planning and management under future climate change scenarios in the Haihe River basin. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A multi-model ensemble approach for the assessment of climatic and anthropogenic impacts on river flow change

ABSTRACT

Climate variability and human activities are considered to be the most likely reasons for negative trends in river inflow and the water level of some lakes and wetlands in the world. To quantify the uncertain impacts of climate variations and anthropogenic activities on Ajichay River flow in Iran, a multi-model ensemble approach based on the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method is applied. Several statistical and simulation-based methods are used to distinguish the impacts of climatic and anthropogenic factors on river flow. The results show that almost all the methods identified human activities as the dominant impact on streamflow (about 73–85% of the change). The between-model and within-model uncertainty analyses using BMA showed that the 95% uncertainty intervals of the individual approaches have relatively large deviation ranges. The BMA mean prediction could reduce the range of between-model uncertainties to 14–27% for climate impacts and 74–80% for human impacts. This approach provides a way to better understand the contributions of climatic and anthropogenic impacts on river flow change.     

Temporal variation of river flow renewability in the middle Yellow River and the influencing factors

In the past 30 years, the measured annual river flow of the Yellow River has declined significantly. After adding the diverted water back to get the ‘natural’ annual river flow, the tendency of decrease can still be seen. This indicates that the river flow renewability of the Yellow River has changed. The river flow renewability is indexed as the ratio of annual ‘natural’ river flow to annual precipitation over a river drainage basin, where the ‘natural’ river flow is the measured annual river flow plus the annual ‘net’ water diversion from the river. By using this index, based on the data from the drainage area between Hekouzhen and Longmen stations on the middle Yellow River, a study has been made of the river flow renewability of the Yellow River in the changing environment of the past 50 years. The river flow renewability index (I_rr) in the drainage area between Hekouzhen and Longmen in the middle Yellow River basin has been found to decline significantly with time. In the meantime, annual precipitation decreased, annual air temperature increased, but the area of water and soil conservation measures has been increased. It has been found that I_rr is positively correlated with the areal averaged annual precipitation, but negatively correlated with annual air temperature. There is close, negative correlation between I_rr and the area of water and soil conservation measures including land terracing, tree and grass planting and checkdam building, implying that water and soil conservation measures have reduced the river flow renewability. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of climate and land-use change on green-water variations in the Middle Yellow River,China

Abstract

Water resources management should cover both blue water and green water. For green-water management at the river drainage basin scale, the green-water coefficient (C _gw) is adopted, defined as the ratio of annual green water to annual precipitation. Based on data from the Middle Yellow River basin, China, for the period 1950 to 2007, we studied the temporal variation in C _gw in response to some influencing factors. A decreasing trend in C _gw was found. The influence of changes in land management on C _gw, reflected by an increase in the area (A _sw) of soil and water conservation measures, is emphasized. Using multiple regression analysis, the contributions of A _sw and the 5-year moving averages of annual precipitation and air temperature were estimated as 51, 37 and 12%, respectively. The results may provide useful information for better management of water resources, including green and blue water flows in the Yellow River basin.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Gerten

Citation Xu, J.-X., 2013. Effects of climate and land-use change on green-water variations in the Middle Yellow River, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1), 1–12.     

基于MODIS数据的博斯腾湖流域植被变化及其与气候因子的关系

以博斯腾湖流域为研究区,基于2001-2016年时间序列的MODIS NDVI数据分析了研究区植被的时空变化趋势,并结合流域气象站点的气温、降水、日照时数和相对湿度数据分析了植被生长季累积NDVI和16天NDVI与气候因子之间的响应特征.结果表明:(1)流域植被覆盖变化呈改善趋势,生长季累积NDVI年变化率为0.014 a-1,16天NDVI变化率均为正值,植被改善趋势显著区域主要分布在高山草原湿地和农业灌溉区边缘的新增农田.(2)植被生长季累积NDVI主要受降水和相对湿度影响,植被总体生产力与水分条件关系最密切,生长季逐16天NDVI与同期气温和日照时数在植被生长初期和末期关系显著,而与降水没有显著的相关性,说明植被短期瞬时长势对热量条件更为敏感.(3)在植被生长不同阶段对气候变化具有不同的滞后效应,其中植被生长初期和末期对气温有0.5~1个月的滞后,生长盛期对降水有0.5~3个月的滞后、日照时数有1.5~2.5个月的滞后、相对湿度有0.5~2.5个月的滞后,揭示了植被不同生长阶段水热条件对其生长韵律的控制差异.     

A model to predict stream water temperature across the conterminous USA

Stream water temperature (t_s) is a critical water quality parameter for aquatic ecosystems. However, t_s records are sparse or nonexistent in many river systems. In this work, we present an empirical model to predict t_s at the site scale across the USA. The model, derived using data from 171 reference sites selected from the Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow database, describes the linear relationship between monthly mean air temperature (t_a) and t_s. Multiple linear regression models are used to predict the slope (m) and intercept (b) of the t_a–t_s linear relation as a function of climatic, hydrologic and land cover characteristics. Model performance to predict t_s resulted in a mean Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.78 across all sites. Application of the model to predict t_s at additional 89 nonreference sites with a higher human alteration yielded a mean Nash–Sutcliffe value of 0.45. We also analysed seasonal thermal sensitivity (m) and found strong hysteresis in the t_a–t_s relation. Drainage area exerts a strong control on m in all seasons, whereas the cooling effect of groundwater was only evident for the spring and fall seasons. However, groundwater contributions are negatively related to mean t_s in all seasons. Finally, we found that elevation and mean basin slope are negatively related to mean t_s in all seasons, indicating that steep basins tend to stay cooler because of shorter residence times to gain heat from their surroundings. This model can potentially be used to predict climate change impacts on t_s across the USA. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial patterns of vegetation and climate in the North China Plain during the Last Glacial Maximum and Holocene climatic optimum

Reconstructing the spatial patterns of regional climate and vegetation during specific intervals in the past is important for assessing the possible responses of the ecological environment under future global warming scenarios. In this study, we reconstructed the history of regional vegetation and climate based on six radiocarbon-dated pollen records from the North China Plain. Combining the results with existing pollen records, we reconstruct the paleoenvironment of the North China Plain during the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM) and the Holocene Climatic Optimum(HCO). The results show that changes in the regional vegetation since the LGM were primarily determined by climatic conditions, the geomorphic landscape and by human activity.During the LGM, the climate was cold and dry; mixed broadleaf-coniferous forest and deciduous-evergreen broadleaf forest developed in the southern mountains, and cold-resistant coniferous forest and mixed broadleaf-coniferous forest were present in the northern mountains. The forest cover was relatively low, with mesophytic and hygrophilous meadow occupying the southern part of the plain, and temperate grassland and desert steppe were distributed in the north; Chenopodiaceae-dominated halophytes grew on the exposed continental shelf of the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea. During the HCO, the climate was warm and wet;deciduous broadleaf forest and deciduous-evergreen broadleaf forest, with subtropical species, developed in the southern mountains, and deciduous broadleaf forest with thermophilic species was present in northern mountains. Although the degree of forest cover was greater than during the LGM, the vegetation of the plain area was still dominated by herbs, while halophytes had migrated inland due to sea level rise. In addition, the expansion of human activities, especially the intensification of cultivation,had a significant influence on the natural vegetation. Our results provide data and a scientific basis for paleoclimate modelling and regional carbon cycle assessment in north China, with implications for predicting changes in the ecological environment under future global warming scenarios.     

Tectonic and climatic control of the changes in the sedimentary record of the Karnali River section (Siwaliks of western Nepal)

Abstract A multidisciplinary study was conducted on the section of the Siwalik Group sediments, approximately 5000 m thick, exposed along the Karnali River. Analysis of facies, clay mineralogy and neodymium isotope compositions revealed significant changes in the sedimentary record, allowing discussion of their tectonic or climatic origin. Two major changes within the sedimentary fill were detected: the change from a meandering to a braided river system at ca 9.5 Ma and the change from a deep sandy braided to a shallow sandy braided river system at ca 6.5 Ma. The 9.5‐Ma change in fluvial style is contemporaneous with an abrupt increase of ?_Nd(0) values following a ?_Nd(0) minimum. This evolution indicates a change in source material and erosion of Lesser Himalayan rocks within the Karnali catchment basin between 13 and 10 Ma. The tectonic activity along the Ramgarh thrust caused this local exhumation. By changing the proximity and morphology of relief, the forward propagation of the basal detachment to the main boundary thrust was responsible for the high gradient and sediment load required for the development of the braided river system. The change from a deep sandy braided to a shallow sandy braided river system at approximately 6.5 Ma was contemporaneous with a change in clay mineralogy towards smectite‐/kaolinite‐dominant assemblages. As no source rock change and no burial effect are detected at that time, the change in clay mineralogy is interpreted as resulting from differences in environmental conditions. The facies analysis shows abruptly and frequently increasing discharges by 6.5 Ma, and could be linked to an increase in seasonality, induced by intensification of the monsoon climate. The major fluvial changes deciphered along the Karnali section have been recognized from central to western Nepal, although they are diachronous. The change in clay mineralogy towards smectite‐/kaolinite‐rich assemblages and the slight decrease of ?_Nd(0) have also been detected in the Bengal Fan sedimentary record, showing the extent and importance of the two major events recorded along the Karnali section.     

Streamflow sensitivity analysis to climate change for a large water‐limited basin

Partitioning precipitation (P) between streamflow (Q) and actual evapotranspiration (E_a) on a basin scale is controlled by climate change in combination with catchment characteristics. Fu's formulation of the Budyko framework was used to estimate Q as a function of two meteorological variables, P and potential evaporation (E_p), and one adjustable parameter reflecting characteristics of catchment conditions (ω). Results show that ω reflects the impacts of catchment characteristics on the partitioning of P between Q and E_a for the different water yielding regions. As predicted, Q was more sensitive to P than to comparable changes in E_p for the whole of the Yellow River Basin (YRB), a water‐limited basin, while it was shown to be highly sensitive to changes in P, E_p, and ω in the low water yielding region (LWYR) of the basin, followed by YRB and the high water yielding region of the basin. The high sensitivity of Q to P, E_p, and ω in LWYR indicates that the management of catchments within these zones is critical to the management of overall basin flow, mitigating impacts of climate change on Q. The Budyko framework, incorporating the adjustable parameter ω, outlines interactions between Q, climate, and characteristics specific to different water yielding regions. It also provides a new approach in understanding hydrological process response to climate change. Due to the obscure physical attributes of ω, an explanation of the parameter using soil or vegetation characteristics will aid in the understanding of the eco‐hydrological behaviour of catchments and help to provide more detailed catchment management options for which to mitigate climate change with respect to concerns regarding agricultural water usage. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evapotranspiration in the Mekong and Yellow river basins / Evapotranspiration dans les bassins du Mekong et du Fleuve Jaune

Abstract

Estimates of potential evapotranspiration (PET) and reference evapotranspiration (RET) were compared over the Mekong and Yellow river basins, representing humid and semi-arid Asian monsoon regions. Multiple regression relationships between monthly RET, PET, LAI (leaf area index) and climatic variables were explored for different vegetation types. Over the Mekong River basin, the spatial average of RET is only 1.7% lower than PET; however, RET is 140% higher than PET over parts of the Tibetan Plateau, due to the short and sparse grassland, and 30% lower than PET in parts of the lower basin due to the tall and well-developed forests. Over the Yellow River basin, RET is estimated to be higher than PET, on average about 50% higher across the whole basin, due to the generally sparse vegetation. A close linear relationship between annual RET and PET allows the establishment of a regional regression to predict monthly PET from monthly RET, climatic variables and/or vegetation LAI. However, the large prediction errors indicate that the Shuttleworth-Wallace (S-W) model, although it is more complex, should be recommended due to its more robust physical basis and because it successfully accounts for the effect of changing land surface conditions on PET. The limited available field data suggest that the S-W estimate may be more realistic. It was also found that vegetation conditions in summer are primarily controlled by the regional antecedent precipitation in the cold and dry seasons over the Loess Plateau in the middle reaches of the Yellow River.