碳公平的测度:基于人均历史累计排放的碳基尼系数

以人均历史累计排放为基础,借用了收入分配公平的研究思路,以洛仑兹曲线和基尼系数为指标,尝试以一个综合性的指标测度排放空间中的分配公平问题。对碳基尼系数的分析表明,目前70%的排放空间被用于不公平分配,其分配差异同目前收入差异最悬殊的国家在同一水平上,解决碳公平问题迫在眉睫。基于人均累计排放的碳基尼系数可以用以度量碳排放空间的不平等,并为国际社会对碳公平的讨论提供一个量化的指标。     

气候变化与碳排放权分配

气候变化的科学事实表明,人类活动导致了大气温室气体浓度增加,解决气候变化问题的根本措施就是减少或消除温室气体人为的过多排放。 碳排放权的分配问题是关系到各国的社会经济发展,以及人民生活、生存权的问题。以气候变化的实质问题为基础,分析了气候资源和碳排放权的基本属性;进一步探讨了碳排放权的分配方案,并对国外的碳排放权分配方案进行了对比评估。另外,还提出了影响碳排放权分配的重要因素。     

全国碳排放权交易市场下电解铝行业基准线法研究

2011年以来,我国碳排放权交易市场建设不断加快,碳排放权交易机制不断健全完善,其中基准线法被确定为全国碳交易初始配额分配的主要方法。电解铝行业是我国能源消耗和碳排放的重点部门,尽早将该行业纳入碳市场对于行业减排、纵深推进全国碳市场交易以及应对国际碳边境调节机制政策均有重要意义。基于2018年电解铝行业直报的碳排放相关数据,确定了我国电解铝行业开展全国碳交易的基准线方案。结果显示,电解铝行业宜选取8.12~8.15 t CO₂/t铝作为基准线取值,不需设置区域差异调整系数。同时为保证电解铝行业碳交易的顺利开展,还需尽快确定行业配额方案,进一步完善企业排放量的监测、报告和核查以提高核查填报数据质量,以及进一步研究电解铝行业碳排放核算的范围。     

中国碳总量控制新进展：省域碳配额分配研究综述

为加快碳达峰、碳中和进程,中国正探索碳总量控制制度,而省域碳配额分配是落实总量控制目标的重要抓手。从分配准则、分配方法和分配结果3个环节对关于中国省域碳配额分配的研究开展综述。结果表明,兼顾公平和效率原则是各方研究共识,但对于公平原则的解读和测度尚存争议。指标法和优化法在省域碳配额分配中被广泛采用,前者能兼顾多方利益,后者能提升分配效率;混合法因具备多方法优势而具有较大发展潜力;博弈法因缺乏透明度而较为罕见。既有分配结果对各省分配的减排责任与各省实情间尚有差距,并仅关注某一特定年份当期或者某一时间区间内累计的碳配额分配,缺乏对逐年碳配额分配的关注。建议后续研究进一步关注兼顾公平与效率、考虑区域异质性与消费端排放责任、采用多方法组合、兼容个案特殊性的跨期动态分配方法学的构建过程。     

全国碳交易下中国钢铁行业的基准线法研究

自2011年来,中国碳排放权交易机制不断健全完善,其中基准线法被确定为全国碳交易初始配额分配的主要方法。钢铁行业作为仅次于电力行业的第二大碳排放部门,加快对其开展基准线法碳交易的测算、设计和评价,对纵深推进全国碳交易市场建设具有重要意义。文中基于2018年钢铁企业直报的温室气体排放数据和单位产品碳强度这一关键指标,确定了中国钢铁行业开展全国碳交易的基准线方案。结果显示,钢铁行业碳交易基准线应包括炼钢及之前的6个工序,基准值宜采用效率较高的前70%至80%范围内的企业碳强度均值,在配额确定时无需考虑行业区域差异,但针对企业间碳强度差异较大的工序应设立从历史法到基准线法的过渡期。     

主要发达经济体从碳达峰到碳中和的路径及启示

随着气候变化影响加剧,全球气候治理进程加速,实现碳达峰已经成为全球气候行动的核心,各国也相继制定碳中和目标并开展行动。中国在第75届联合国大会一般性辩论上提出了碳达峰碳中和目标,部分已实现碳达峰的发达经济体也提出了各自的碳中和承诺。文中从“整体-阶段”及“焦点-公平”视角分析了欧盟和美国等主要发达经济体碳达峰的历程和特点,以及其碳中和目标和规划。研究发现,发达经济体在碳达峰过程中普遍经历了较长的爬坡期（58~136年）和平台期（4~20年),在碳达峰时,发达经济体的能源结构以油气为主,油气占一次能源消费比重为57%~77%,其人均排放量、历史累计排放以及人均GDP也都处于较高水平,在碳达峰前后总体处于经济与碳排放脱钩状态。各发达经济体的碳中和路径均以能源转型为重点,采用了多元化的政策工具,并且注重低碳和负碳技术的革新。根据发达经济体的政策展望,在实现碳中和时,均难以将绝对排放量降为零,都需要通过碳移除手段进行抵消。通过对比分析,发现中国的碳达峰和碳中和目标是具有雄心的气候承诺,相较其他发达经济体需要付出更大努力。建议运用全面综合的政策工具支撑碳中和目标的有效落实,加快中国的气候立法,在兼顾公正转型的同时推动能源结构调整,注重可再生能源和能效方面的新技术开发应用。     

人均历史累积排放权概念的操作性定义及分配方案研究

全球长期减排目标问题引发了各国对今后稀缺的大气温室气体容量资源如何进行公平分配的博弈,其中发展中国家提出了均等的人均历史累积排放权分配理念。该理念由于人口动态变化的因素存在4种可能的操作性定义,运用数学表达式推算出4种潜在的排放权分配方案。对4种方案的简单模拟和结果进行比较进一步揭示了各方案的优劣和特点。     

碳成本传递原理、影响因素及对中国碳市场的启示——以电力部门为例

以欧盟碳市场的实践以及中国碳市场的发展现状为背景,调研分析了碳成本传递原理,重点以电力行业为例分析碳成本传递率的主要影响因素。结果显示影响电力行业碳成本传递率的主要因素包括碳排放权交易的配额分配方式以及电力市场结构。分配方式对传递率的影响主要包括配额是否免费发放、是否实时更新免费配额的发放额度、关闭的发电设备是否获得免费配额和新进入者是否发放免费配额等因素。电力市场结构对传递率的影响主要体现在市场竞争程度、市场需求与供给条件。最后,基于当前国内碳市场试点的碳配额分配方式,给出了循序渐进地改变碳排放额初始分配的方法、减少一次性发放未来相对长时期的免费配额、选择基于发电量发放免费配额而非装机容量发放免费配额等相关政策建议。     

基于高质量发展视角的中国碳配额省级分配方案评价

碳配额分配是碳排放控制的关键,在实现国家“双碳”目标下探寻更利于高质量发展的省级分配方案具有重要意义。基于平等主义、历史责任、支付能力、排放效率和可行性分配准则,使用综合指标法设计了10种分配方案,并以高质量发展为标准,使用Malmquist指数模型对这些方案进行评价。结果表明：我国各省份在不同分配方案下拥有多样化的碳配额,多数地区根据排放效率准则、支付能力准则、历史责任准则和可行性准则（方案F）获得最大配额。从国家层面看,方案F具有最佳的经济高质量发展性能,是相对最优的选择。从区域层面看,各省在不同分配方案下有不同的经济高质量发展表现,多数地区根据平等主义准则、排放效率准则和可行性准则（方案G）实现最优发展。排放效率指标的选取对分配方案的结果具有稳健性。     

实现国家自主贡献目标背景下我国碳交易机制研究

以实现国家自主贡献目标为背景,运用电力行业细分的递推动态可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型,模拟我国统一碳市场下不同碳交易机制的实施效果及其经济影响。研究表明,全国统一碳市场有助于我国实现国家自主贡献目标,并且可以缓解碳减排对经济增长造成的负面影响;相比基于碳排放量免费分配初始碳配额的“祖父法则”,基于碳强度基准免费分配初始碳配额的“标杆法则”可以降低碳交易价格、增加碳配额交易量并扩大碳市场规模;采取拍卖方式有偿分配初始碳配额时碳市场中各行业面临更大的减排成本,但有利于增加政府收入;对碳市场未覆盖的行业和居民户征收碳税能有效控制其碳排放、增加政府财政收入、降低碳交易价格并促进我国国家自主贡献目标的实现;全国统一碳市场在抑制火电行业发展的同时将不同程度地促进清洁能源发电部门的发展。     

欧盟航空碳税及其国际影响

根据当前欧盟征收国际航空碳税政策的国际环境,介绍欧盟航空碳税的历史沿革、具体政策、二氧化碳排放监测方法,就各国反应及其国际影响进行分析.欧盟航空碳税可能会导致全球航空业成本增加,并最终转嫁给消费者;欧盟航空碳税对发达国家航空公司影响较小,而对发展中国家的航空公司影响较大.鉴于欧盟航空碳税对中国航空业的影响,建议尽早制定相关的碳排放标准,维护中国应有的发展权与话语权.     

International and national climate policies for aviation: a review

Aviation constitutes about 2.5% of all energy-related CO₂ emissions and in addition there are non-CO₂ effects. In 2016, the ICAO decided to implement a Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) and in 2017 the EU decided on faster emission reductions in its Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), which since 2012 includes the aviation sector. The effects of these policies on the expected development of air travel emissions from 2017 to 2030 have been analyzed. For the sample country Sweden, the analysis shows that when emissions reductions in other sectors are attributed to the aviation sector as a result of the EU ETS and CORSIA, carbon emissions are expected to reduce by ?0.8% per year (however if non-CO₂ emissions are included in the analysis, then emissions will increase). This is much less than what is needed to achieve the 2°C target. Our analysis of potential national aviation policy instruments shows that there are legally feasible options that could mitigate emissions in addition to the EU ETS and CORSIA. Distance-based air passenger taxes are common among EU Member States and through increased ticket prices these taxes can reduce demand for air travel and thus reduce emissions. Tax on jet fuel is an option for domestic aviation and for international aviation if bilateral agreements are concluded. A quota obligation for biofuels is a third option.

Key policy insights

• Existing international climate policies for aviation will not deliver any major emission reductions.

• Policymakers who want to significantly push the aviation sector to contribute to meeting the 2°C target need to work towards putting in place tougher international policy instruments in the long term, and simultaneously implement temporary national policy instruments in the near-term.

• Distance-based air passenger taxes, carbon taxes on jet fuel and quota obligations for biofuels are available national policy options; if they are gradually increased, and harmonized with other countries, they can help to significantly reduce emissions.

     

国际碳排放特征演进及中国应对建议

通过系统地比较各主要国家CO₂排放总量、人均排放量及排放强度等,总结发达国家碳排放特点,分析中国碳排放历程及各阶段出现的原因。比较分析发达国家和发展中国家应对气候变化的相关政策,结合中外碳排放特征,总结中国碳排放及应对气候变化面临的主要问题。提出中国新常态下应对气候变化的建议,包括在国际层面上,积极参与气候谈判,推动国际社会低碳化发展,在中国层面上,切实改变经济增长方式,引领经济低碳发展等。     

Assessment of greenhouse gases emission from civil aviation in Russia

The greenhouse gases emission (CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O) from domestic and international aviation in the Russian Federation is assessed. In 2007, the total emission of CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O amounted to 18.4 million tons of CO₂-equivalent, which is 21% below the 1990 level. Carbon dioxide dominates in the component composition of the emissions, its part in 2007 accounted for 99.1% of the emission. Taking into account the tendency towards increasing fuel consumption due to intense aircraft traffic it can be expected that compared to the present level the greenhouse gases emissions in 2012 and 2020 will increase by 15 and 45%, respectively. Accounting for the increased aircraft emissions as well as plans of foreign countries to include the international aviation into the scheme of greenhouse gases emission allowance (trade credits) it is expedient to make more precise the greenhouse gases emissions from the Russian aviation based on the detailed flight data for all types of the aircraft.     

Carbon leakage in aviation policy

ABSTRACT

The inherently global, connected nature of aviation means that carbon leakage from aviation policy does not necessarily behave similarly to leakage from other sectors. We model carbon leakage from a range of aviation policy test cases applied to a specific country (the United Kingdom), motivated by a desire to reduce aviation CO₂ faster than achievable by currently-planned global mitigation efforts in pursuit of a year-2050 net zero CO₂ target. We find that there are two main components to leakage: one related to passenger behaviour, which tends to result in emissions reductions outside the policy area (negative leakage), and one related to airline behaviour, which tends to result in emissions increases outside the policy area (positive leakage). The overall leakage impact of a policy, and whether it is positive or negative, depends on the balance of these two components and the geographic scope used, and varies for different policy types. In our simulations, carbon pricing-type policies were associated with leakage of between +50 and ?150% depending on what is assumed about scope and the values of uncertain parameters. Mandatory biofuel use was associated with positive leakage of around 0–40%, and changes in airport landing costs to promote more fuel-efficient aircraft were associated with positive leakage of 50–150%.

Key policy insights

• Carbon leakage in aviation policy arises from airline responses (typically positive leakage) and passenger responses (typically negative leakage).

• Depending on the geographical scope, policy type and values for uncertain parameters, leakage may be between around ?150 to +150%.

• Of the policies investigated in this study, leakage was typically most negative for carbon pricing and most positive for environmental landing charges.

• Absolute values of leakage are smallest where policies are considered on the basis of all arriving and departing flights.

     

Estimates of UK CO2 emissions from aviation using air traffic data

The allocation of CO₂ emissions to specific sources is a major policy issue for international aviation, especially for determining allocations for emissions trading schemes. This paper addresses the problem by recommending a possible methodology to allocate emissions to specific sources using detailed air traffic data. The basis for the calculations is an air traffic sample for one full-day of traffic from the UK. In order to analyse aircraft fuel burn use and hence CO₂ emissions, the Reorganized Air Traffic Control Mathematical Simulator (RAMS Plus) and the Advanced Emission Model (AEM III) are used. The results from these detailed simulations are compared with two of the most widely-used aviation CO₂ emission estimates to have been made for the UK: the SERAS study and NETCEN estimate. Their estimates for the year 2000 are 26.1 and 31.4 Mt, respectively. In addition, the most recent NETCEN estimate for the year 2003 is 34.1 Mt of CO₂. Our estimate of total aviation CO₂ emissions, using detailed simulations and real air traffic data, is 34.7 Mt for the year 2004. In addition, emission estimates are compared with two global aviation emission inventories: AERO2K and SAGE. Contributions of the highest-emitting flights and aircraft types are identified. International departures dominate; 6% of flights account for 50% of total emissions. The largest aircraft emit the most per flight-km, although not per passenger-km. Different methodologies and their implications are also discussed.     

Reaching a climate agreement: compensating for energy market effects of climate policy

Because of large economic and environmental asymmetries among world regions and the incentive to free ride, an international climate regime with broad participation is hard to reach. Most of the proposed regimes are based on an allocation of emissions rights that is perceived as fair. Yet, there are also arguments to focus more on the actual welfare implications of different regimes and to focus on a ‘fair’ distribution of resulting costs. In this article, the computable general equilibrium model DART is used to analyse the driving forces of welfare implications in different scenarios in line with the 2?°C target. These include two regimes that are often presumed to be ‘fair’, namely a harmonized international carbon tax and a cap and trade system based on the convergence of per capita emissions rights, and also an ‘equal loss’ scenario where welfare losses relative to a business-as-usual scenario are equal for all major world regions. The main finding is that indirect energy market effects are a major driver of welfare effects and that the ‘equal loss’ scenario would thus require large transfer payments to energy exporters to compensate for welfare losses from lower world energy demand and prices.

Policy relevance

A successful future climate regime requires ‘fair’ burden sharing. Many proposed regimes start from ethical considerations to derive an allocation of emissions reduction requirements or emissions allowances within an international emissions trading scheme. Yet, countries also consider the expected economic costs of a regime that are also driven by other factors besides allowance allocation. Indeed, in simplified lab experiments, successful groups are characterized by sharing costs proportional to wealth. This article shows that the major drivers of welfare effects are reduced demand for fossil energy and reduced fossil fuel prices, which implies that (1) what is often presumed to be a fair allocation of emissions allowances within an international emissions trading scheme leads to a very uneven distribution of economic costs and (2) aiming for equal relative losses for all regions requires large compensation to fossil fuel exporters, as argued, for example, by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).     

河北省贸易隐含二氧化碳排放及其影响因素研究

针对全球气候变化而引发国家间减排责任的争吵,需要各国从生产和消费的角度来认识二氧化碳排放,国家内部区域之间减排责任的分担也应该从生产和消费两个角度加以认识。为此,本文利用投入产出分析方法和EEBT(双边贸易隐含排放)核算方法核算河北省的二氧化碳排放,发现河北省生产型二氧化碳排放远大于其消费型二氧化碳排放,其中国内流出/流入引发的二氧化碳排放量较大。在利用SDA(结构分解分析法)分析影响贸易隐含二氧化碳排放变化因素时,发现行业二氧化碳排放强度变化对隐含二氧化碳排放具有积极影响,而国民经济行业之间技术经济关系的变化对隐含二氧化碳排放具有消极影响。因此,河北省在利用技术手段降低行业二氧化碳排放强度的同时,还要筛选关键性部门加以重点管理。同时,河北省贸易隐含二氧化碳排放及其影响因素变化对国家制定区域减排责任也有较强参考价值。     

基于飞行阶段的精细化航空二氧化碳排放因子研究

航空运输是交通领域CO₂排放增长最快速的部门。文中选择中国民航使用频率较高的超大型、大型、中型和小型飞机的典型机型,基于不同飞机在起飞、爬升、巡航、接近和滑行阶段引擎油耗速率、运行时间和油耗量的变化,计算航空飞机CO₂排放因子。同时结合各机型碳排放因子、额定载客量与客座率评估旅客搭乘不同飞机时的人均CO₂排放量（即单位客运周转量CO₂排放因子)。结果显示,超大型飞机、大型飞机、中型飞机和小型飞机在其航程区间内的平均CO₂排放因子分别为49.8、31.7、16.2和8.5 kg CO₂/km;满载条件下单位客运周转量CO₂排放因子均值分别为102.6、95.2、81.7和112.4 g CO₂/(人∙km)。起飞和爬升阶段引擎油耗速率约为巡航阶段油耗速率的2.6~3.4倍和2.0~2.8倍,飞机CO₂排放因子随飞行里程的提高而降低。航空运输是高碳客运方式,相同里程条件下,航空单位客运周转量CO₂排放因子显著高于高铁、道路机动车等其他客运方式。提升燃油效率、减少短途航运、合理安排航线以提高客座率并减少中途转机是降低航空碳排放量的有效途径。     

Tax and trade: a hybrid climate policy instrument to control carbon prices and emissions

This article describes a ‘tax and trade' emission regulations system that controls both emission costs and emission quantities. Emitters are taxed at a fixed price on carbon emissions and the government uses the tax revenue to buy carbon offsets on existing emissions markets. Unlike a traditional carbon tax, regulated firms may also produce carbon credits which may be sold to the government. Thus, the government bears the compliance cost risk rather than an individual firm and has control over the number of offsets purchased and the effective emission reduction. This unusual form of hybrid has potential political advantages of creating an economic incentive on corporate choices (at the margin) substantially greater than the actual trading price, and with lower financial transfers than in most schemes.

Policy relevance

The article presents a hybrid carbon emissions system that adds to the growing discussion of hybrid policy instruments which could be implemented by policy makers, particularly in nations without current cap and trade policies.