基于CGE模型的碳税政策模拟——以广东省为例

科学设置碳税政策是控制二氧化碳排放量和推动能源结构优化的重要基础,文中以广东省为例,利用2012年的广东省投入产出表、广东统计年鉴、广东财政年鉴、中国统计年鉴等数据构建社会核算矩阵,通过构建静态的可计算一般均衡模型（CGE),进行区域的碳税政策模拟,分析不同程度的碳税税率对化石能源消费量及各宏观经济变量的影响。结果表明：征收碳税对减排效果有明显的正向作用,当碳税水平为60元/t时,广东省减排效果为3.90%;在碳税定价上,60元/t较为合适;减排贡献率最高的化石能源为煤炭,其次为石油,最低为天然气;碳税冲击下能源消费量下降,最明显的为煤炭,其次是火电;碳税冲击也能显著减少各部门对煤炭的消费量;碳税政策对广东省GDP和社会福利有负向作用,但对总体碳排放强度有正向作用。未来广东省应严格控制煤炭消费量,同时对火电部门进行低碳改造。     

全球实施碳税政策对碳减排及世界经济的影响评估

该研究模拟了全球各区域2008-2050年的经济发展和碳排放状况,并将该模拟结果设定为基准情景。在基准情景中全球GDP随时间增长,而全球的碳排放同样表现出增长趋势。为了模拟碳税政策的减排效应及其对经济的影响,本文构建了其他3种碳税政策情景。情景1,将碳税收入作为一般性财政收入,此时全球升温减缓,世界碳排放下降显著,但中国、印度、俄罗斯、马来西亚和印度尼西亚等发展中国家经济发展严重受创,世界经济不均衡加剧。情景2,将各区域的碳税收入汇总之后按照比例统一分配,该情景下,世界碳减排规模较情景1略有下降,但世界各区域的经济较基准情景得到更好的发展。情景3,碳税税率随时间阶段性增长,此时,碳税政策对全球升温的控制更显著;世界各区域,尤其是发展中国家（地区）,经济增长更迅速。另外,碳税收入用来提升区域技术进步,在一定程度上促进了产业的优化升级。碳税政策与技术进步的协同减排政策,考虑了区域经济发展的不均衡性,兼顾了气候治理的公平性,是一种有效、可行的全球气候治理政策。     

转变思想 开拓进取 提高航空气象服务质量

西南地区航空气象工作者几十年来兢兢业业,为保障飞行安全、正常做出了可喜的贡献.特别是近几年来,依靠科技进步,推动了航空气象事业的发展,整个业务运行程序和标准化工作,基本上已与国际接轨.但同时,我们应该看到我们面临的挑战,我国加入世界贸易组织,国外的气象服务公司必然进入我国,必然和我们争夺航空气象服务的市场.所以,我们现在必须树立全心全意为航空公司服务的思想,开拓进取,提高航空气象服务质量.我们必须明确,我们的服务对象是航空公司,是飞行机组,我们的服务宗旨就是确保航空的安全、正常和效率.因此,我们必须作好以下几个方面的工作:     

碳税和碳交易机制的行业减排成本比较优势研究

碳税和碳交易机制是控制温室气体排放的环境管理工具,对工业行业的减排成本造成不同的影响。以污染控制政策的稳态总期望社会成本函数为基础构建碳减排成本函数,比较碳税和碳交易机制下水泥行业减排成本,发现影响两种环境管理工具成本的要素。以广东和山东水泥行业的实证数据进行模拟分析,得到如下结论：当碳价和碳税税率差距不大时,由于碳交易机制需要较高的建设成本,碳税更具成本优势;短期内,由于减排技术投入成本较高,与强制性的行政管理手段相比,碳交易机制更具成本效益;碳价、碳税税率、最佳可获得技术的价格、企业预期、碳交易建设与管理成本都会影响碳交易机制和碳税在减排成本上的比较优势。建议设计互补型碳排放管理政策组合,使碳税和碳交易机制发挥各自的制度优势。     

国际碳税格局及其对中国的启示

本文在总结分析全球已经实施碳税的国家碳税实施情况及其效果,评价分析国内外学者对中国征收碳税的相关研究和科学观点的基础上,针对中国碳税设计提出如下建议：目前实施碳税的大多是发达国家,国际上征收碳税的舆论日益高涨,但国内对碳税征收要素研究还不透彻,依据中国的国情开征碳税环境尚不成熟,未来需要进一步加强对碳税开征各要素的调研。     

欧盟《气候与能源2030政策框架》要点分析与启示

通过分析《气候与能源2030政策框架》（以下简称《框架》）方案要点,认为欧盟2030年的减排目标相对2020年承诺目标更为积极,可再生能源目标略高于之前官方预期。由于东欧国家的参与,欧盟一方面获得了这些国家盈余的排放配额,帮助欧盟作为一个整体实现减排目标;另一方面,成员国经济发展水平差异增大,导致欧盟施行相对积极的环境政策阻力加大,未来大幅调整减排目标的可能性不大。《框架》目标将可能对2020年后国际碳市场需求预估产生影响,未来国际碳市场的健康运行,将不仅需要欧盟外的发达国家提出具有雄心的减排目标,也需要欧盟提高减排目标,增加其对于国际减排配额的需求;此外,欧盟辅助实现40%减排目标的相关生产标准和措施,可能对未来全球自由贸易产生影响,其他国家尤其是对外贸易依存度较高的发展中国家需要密切关注相关动向。《框架》方案所提出的以应对气候变化引领和促进经济发展、采用组合目标且针对不同目标采取不同实现形式、展现制定目标的透明度、充分考虑成员国差异等提法和操作方式值得中国借鉴。     

转变思想 开拓进取 提高航空气象服务质量

西南地区航空气象工作者几十年来兢兢业业 ,为保障飞行安全、正常做出了可喜的贡献。特别是近几年来 ,依靠科技进步 ,推动了航空气象事业的发展 ,整个业务运行程序和标准化工作 ,基本上已与国际接轨。但同时 ,我们应该看到我们面临的挑战 ,我国加入世界贸易组织 ,国外的气象服务公司必然进入我国 ,必然和我们争夺航空气象服务的市场。所以 ,我们现在必须树立全心全意为航空公司服务的思想 ,开拓进取 ,提高航空气象服务质量。我们必须明确 ,我们的服务对象是航空公司 ,是飞行机组 ,我们的服务宗旨就是确保航空的安全、正常和效率。因此 ,我们…     

国际适应气候变化政策保障体系建设

适应气候变化政策体系由适应气候变化行动方案、保障体制、保障机制和保障法制4个部分组成,是为了提高国家或地区的适应能力以及达成适应目标而形成的政策体系。在对国家气候变化适应政策进行调研的基础上,系统梳理了欧盟、美国、日本、俄罗斯及印度等主要国家和组织所采取的适应气候变化政策保障体系,总结了国际适应气候变化政策保障体系对中国的经验启示。     

航线五维可视化气象信息研究

航空气象服务面对的主要群体为各航空公司的飞行机组、飞行签派人员、空中交通管制人员、机场地面运行人员以及上级各主管决策部门等.     

气象消息

民国二十四年十一月份国内航空气象会议纪略我国航空事业,日渐发达,而飞行安全,全恃有详密之气象报告,故航空与气象,实有密切联络之必要。本月三十日国立中央研究院气象研究所,应交通部与航空委员会之请,召集航空气象会议,出席代表,除该部会外,尚有欧亚中国两航空公司。公推竺可桢所长为主席。议决要案如下:     

International and national climate policies for aviation: a review

Aviation constitutes about 2.5% of all energy-related CO₂ emissions and in addition there are non-CO₂ effects. In 2016, the ICAO decided to implement a Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) and in 2017 the EU decided on faster emission reductions in its Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), which since 2012 includes the aviation sector. The effects of these policies on the expected development of air travel emissions from 2017 to 2030 have been analyzed. For the sample country Sweden, the analysis shows that when emissions reductions in other sectors are attributed to the aviation sector as a result of the EU ETS and CORSIA, carbon emissions are expected to reduce by ?0.8% per year (however if non-CO₂ emissions are included in the analysis, then emissions will increase). This is much less than what is needed to achieve the 2°C target. Our analysis of potential national aviation policy instruments shows that there are legally feasible options that could mitigate emissions in addition to the EU ETS and CORSIA. Distance-based air passenger taxes are common among EU Member States and through increased ticket prices these taxes can reduce demand for air travel and thus reduce emissions. Tax on jet fuel is an option for domestic aviation and for international aviation if bilateral agreements are concluded. A quota obligation for biofuels is a third option.

Key policy insights

• Existing international climate policies for aviation will not deliver any major emission reductions.

• Policymakers who want to significantly push the aviation sector to contribute to meeting the 2°C target need to work towards putting in place tougher international policy instruments in the long term, and simultaneously implement temporary national policy instruments in the near-term.

• Distance-based air passenger taxes, carbon taxes on jet fuel and quota obligations for biofuels are available national policy options; if they are gradually increased, and harmonized with other countries, they can help to significantly reduce emissions.

     

国际航空碳排放权分配公平性研究

以人均国际航空CO₂历史累计排放为基础,借用收入分配公平的研究思路,构造了碳洛伦兹曲线和碳基尼系数,以此来测度各国历史上国际航空碳排放权的不公平使用。对碳基尼系数计算分析表明,历史上国际航空碳排放存在巨大的不公平性,但随累计起始年的延后,不公平性被部分掩盖。国际航空碳排放权公平分配是构建国际航空全球减排机制的关键问题,本文提出的以责任-能力指数为基础构建的国际航空碳排放权分配方案,体现了公平原则。以实现“2020年碳中性”目标为例,运用本文构建的分配方案,计算出了各国2021年分配的碳减排量。     

Combining price and quantity instruments: insights from South Africa

A carbon tax will form the central carbon pricing instrument in South Africa. The country, however, is also in the process of setting specific short-term emissions limits at a subnational level. Additional mitigation policy instruments will thus be required to meet these targets. Although it is possible to combine sector-level quantity targets with a broad-based carbon tax, this article finds that this greatly complicates mitigation policy design, increasing both the information requirements and the likelihood of unintended consequences. The trade-offs between economic efficiency (optimized by the use of a broad-based price set by a carbon tax) and environmental effectiveness (optimized by using instruments that ensure emissions reduction targets are met) are ever present. A clear understanding of subnational quantity targets and an appreciation of the characteristics of the instruments to achieve such targets (quantity-based instruments, QBIs), the framework through which the instruments are combined, and their possible interactions, are required for effective policy making. Three possible frameworks for combining instruments are identified in the article, and some specific implications of interaction between particular QBIs and a carbon tax are suggested.

Policy relevance

This article explores the interaction of a carbon tax with mitigation policy instruments to meet subnational emissions targets in the South African context (where both a carbon tax and subnational emissions targets are currently being developed). As international negotiations progress towards countries accepting binding GHG emissions restrictions, quantity-based mitigation policy approaches become more important. In countries where a broad-based emissions trading scheme (ETS) is not feasible in the short to medium term, combining a broad-based carbon tax with subnational emission targets provides an alternative mechanism for achieving the economic efficiency and emissions certainty benefits derived from an ETS. This paper considers the mechanisms through which such a combination of instruments can be achieved. Three possible frameworks for combining instruments are identified, some specific implications of interaction between particular QBIs and a carbon tax are suggested, and guidelines and concept tools are presented to assist policy-makers in designing efficient and coherent mitigation policy.     

欧盟将民航运输纳入欧盟排放交易体系问题探析

按照欧盟法律,自2012年1月1日起在欧盟境内起降的航班排放将被纳入欧盟排放交易系统。通过详细解读欧盟这一法律,指出欧盟排放交易体系是典型的"上限-交易"系统,即通过规定排放上限与进行配额交易实现减排目标。欧盟此举本质目的是强化气候变化主导权,最终为经济谋利,加快完善欧盟碳交易市场以建设欧元货币权力体系。其结果可能引发其与《联合国气候变化框架公约》及《京都议定书》等国际法之间的法律冲突,购买配额将对民航运输发展造成制约,"可测量、可报告和可核实"将对发展中国家能力建设提出挑战,并将一定程度影响《联合国气候变化框架公约》下的行业减排谈判走向。     

Foreign policy ‘trilemmas’: understanding China's stance on international cap-and-trade

This article uses a policy analogy approach to explore China's attitude toward the possibility of global carbon market integration, including the development of a common cap-and-trade market for the global civil aviation industry. Like in other foreign policy domains, in international cap-and-trade, China faces a ‘trilemma’ between carbon market integration, state sovereignty and policy flexibility. By referring to how China has approached a comparable trilemma in foreign exchange policy making, we analyse China's possible stance on international cap-and-trade. We argue that China will prefer to gradually establish and strengthen, to a limited extent, intergovernmental governance mechanisms, which allow nation-states to prioritize sovereignty and policy flexibility in carbon trading policy making. In the conclusion we use this argument to explain China's responses to the carbon-trading initiatives of Australia, the EU, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), and the World Bank.

Policy relevance

The international community has reached a consensus on the use of market mechanisms for mitigating climate change. While opposing the EU's plan to include Chinese airlines in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, China has started to co-explore with Australia the possibility of linking their carbon markets, and has adopted a supportive attitude toward the carbon trading initiatives led by the ICAO and the World Bank. Considering China's status as the largest emitting country of GHGs and its interdependence with major developed and developing countries, China's substantial participation would be crucial to the success of the global market-based efforts to reduce GHG emissions. This article presents an initial attempt to develop a better understanding of China's stance on international cap-and-trade.     

Coal taxes as supply-side climate policy: a rationale for major exporters?

The shift away from coal is at the heart of the global low-carbon transition. Can governments of coal-producing countries help facilitate this transition and benefit from it? This paper analyses the case for coal taxes as supply-side climate policy implemented by large coal exporting countries. Coal taxes can reduce global carbon dioxide emissions and benefit coal-rich countries through improved terms-of-trade and tax revenue. We employ a multi-period equilibrium model of the international steam coal market to study a tax on steam coal levied by Australia alone, by a coalition of major exporting countries, by all exporters, and by all producers. A unilateral export tax has little impact on global emissions and global coal prices as other countries compensate for reduced export volumes from the taxing country. By contrast, a tax jointly levied by a coalition of major coal exporters would significantly reduce global emissions from steam coal and leave them with a net sector level welfare gain, approximated by the sum of producer surplus, consumer surplus, and tax revenue. Production taxes consistently yield higher tax revenues and have greater effects on global coal consumption with smaller rates of carbon leakages. Questions remain whether coal taxes by major suppliers would be politically feasible, even if they could yield economic benefits.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Carbon taxes: a review of experience and policy design considerations

State and local governments in the USA are evaluating a wide range of policies to reduce carbon emissions, including carbon taxes, which have existed internationally for nearly 20 years. In this article, existing carbon tax policies, both internationally and in the USA, are reviewed, and carbon policy design and effectiveness are analysed. Design considerations include which sectors to tax, where to set the tax rate, how to use tax revenues, what the impact will be on consumers, and how to ensure that emissions reduction goals are achieved. Emissions reductions that are due to carbon taxes can be difficult to measure, although some jurisdictions quantify reductions in overall emissions, others examine impacts that are due to programmes funded by carbon tax revenues.