An evaluation of conditioning data for solute transport prediction

The large and diverse body of subsurface characterization data generated at a field research site near Oyster, Virginia, provides a unique opportunity to test the impact of conditioning data of various types on predictions of flow and transport. Bromide breakthrough curves (BTCs) were measured during a forced-gradient local-scale injection experiment conducted in 1999. Observed BTCs are available at 140 sampling points in a three-dimensional array within the transport domain. A detailed three-dimensional numerical model is used to simulate breakthrough curves at the same locations as the observed BTCs under varying assumptions regarding the character of hydraulic conductivity spatial distributions, and variable amounts and types of conditioning data. We present comparative results of six cases ranging from simple (deterministic homogeneous models) to complex (stochastic indicator simulation conditioned to cross-borehole geophysical observations). Quantitative measures of model goodness-of-fit are presented. The results show that conditioning to a large number of small-scale measurements does not significantly improve model predictions, and may lead to biased or overly confident predictions. However, conditioning to geophysical interpretations with larger spatial support significantly improves the accuracy and precision of model predictions. In all cases, the effects of model error appear to be significant in relation to parameter uncertainty.     

A novel approach to estimate iron distribution within different pore domains of structured media

The Fe content of soils and aquifer solids is usually quantified using different extraction solutions performed with homogenized samples in a well-mixed batch experiment. For structured media where preferential flow prevails over the matrix flow, however, the Fe content determined from homogenized samples may not well represent the Fe available for biogeochemical reactions. In this study ammonium oxalate extraction was performed on a core of intact saprolite where physical structure was preserved. An unsaturated flow setup was modified with the intent of allowing the extraction under two pore tensions, 15 and 0 cm of water, although a malfunctioning vacuum regulator made this more difficult than anticipated. Approximately 85% of the oxalate-extractable Fe was contained within the finer pore domain (matrix potential larger than 15 cm). Less than 15.5% of the extracted Fe mass (an upper bound) was present in domains of pore tension less than15 cm. To the extent that Fe(III) oxides play an important role in contaminant biogeochemistry and solute transport, their distribution in structured subsurface media is critical to the understanding of these processes.     

An Analysis Platform for Multiscale Hydrogeologic Modeling with Emphasis on Hybrid Multiscale Methods

One of the most significant challenges faced by hydrogeologic modelers is the disparity between the spatial and temporal scales at which fundamental flow, transport, and reaction processes can best be understood and quantified (e.g., microscopic to pore scales and seconds to days) and at which practical model predictions are needed (e.g., plume to aquifer scales and years to centuries). While the multiscale nature of hydrogeologic problems is widely recognized, technological limitations in computation and characterization restrict most practical modeling efforts to fairly coarse representations of heterogeneous properties and processes. For some modern problems, the necessary level of simplification is such that model parameters may lose physical meaning and model predictive ability is questionable for any conditions other than those to which the model was calibrated. Recently, there has been broad interest across a wide range of scientific and engineering disciplines in simulation approaches that more rigorously account for the multiscale nature of systems of interest. In this article, we review a number of such approaches and propose a classification scheme for defining different types of multiscale simulation methods and those classes of problems to which they are most applicable. Our classification scheme is presented in terms of a flowchart (Multiscale Analysis Platform), and defines several different motifs of multiscale simulation. Within each motif, the member methods are reviewed and example applications are discussed. We focus attention on hybrid multiscale methods, in which two or more models with different physics described at fundamentally different scales are directly coupled within a single simulation. Very recently these methods have begun to be applied to groundwater flow and transport simulations, and we discuss these applications in the context of our classification scheme. As computational and characterization capabilities continue to improve, we envision that hybrid multiscale modeling will become more common and also a viable alternative to conventional single‐scale models in the near future.     

Extended Sediment Quality Rating for Trace Elements in Urban Waters – Case Study Klinke,Germany

The European Water Framework Directive (WFD) commits European Union member states to achieving good ecological status in all water bodies by 2015. For sediments the definition of good chemical status is based on numerical sediment quality guidelines. The aqua regia fraction is thus used for the evaluation of heavy metal concentrations in sediments. The chemical constituents in sediments responsible for mobility and toxicity are not considered generally. This article presents the combining of the sequential BCR procedure, for determining the chemical species of relevant elements, with the geoaccumulation index principle a numerical classification method for sediment quality guidelines. Using the BCR method it can be demonstrated that changes in element speciation can lead to more highly mobile species of trace elements which may affect the hazardous potential of sediments despite the “good chemical status” classification for aqua regia digestions. The Klinke stream is an urban surface water body located in Magdeburg, the state capital of Saxony‐Anhalt, Germany. Using this stream as an example it is shown that this additional information helps to describe the dynamics and discharge of the trace elements Al, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Rb, Sr, Mo, Pd, Cd, Sb, Ba, Pb, Bi, and U into the Elbe River from urban water bodies.     

Active and break phases of the South American summer monsoon: MJO influence and subseasonal prediction

The role of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) in producing active and break periods of the South American (SA) monsoon and the performance of the ECMWF and NCEP models in predicting these periods at multiweek lead times are assessed. Two monsoon indices, based on precipitation and wind, are proposed to characterize these periods. The models represent well the observed association of active and break monsoon days with large scale convection and circulation anomalies. Although reproducing approximately the distribution of active and break days proportions in each phase of the MJO cycle, models produce a phase shift between observed and simulated distributions because they establish the teleconnection between Central Pacific and South America, as well as its impacts, sooner than in observations. The predictive skill of both rainfall and wind anomalies is limited to about 2 weeks, with the monsoon wind index displaying higher correlation score till week 3. The forecast performance is apparently not affected by initialization on active or break monsoon days. However, it is higher for prediction of lower precipitation in break days than heavier rainfall in active days. Wind is much better predicted than rainfall for active days, which could be used for extreme rainfall events forecast. Although relatively small at shorter lead times, the MJO contribution is the major source of rainfall predictability after week 3. To improve the multiweek prediction of SA monsoon, models need not only to predict correctly the MJO phase, but also to reproduce in the right phase the MJO-related SA rainfall anomalies.

     

Identification and mapping of riverbed sediment facies in the Columbia River through integration of field observations and numerical simulations

In the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River, a thin layer of recent alluvium overlies the sedimentary formations that comprise the unconfined groundwater aquifer. Experimental and modelling studies have demonstrated that this alluvial layer exerts significant control on the exchange of groundwater and surface water (hydrologic exchange flux), and is associated with elevated levels of biogeochemical activity. This layer is also observed to be strongly heterogeneous, and quantifying the spatial distribution of properties over the range of scales of interest is challenging. Facies are elements of a sediment classification scheme that groups complex geologic materials into a set of discrete classes according to distinguishing features. Facies classifications have been used as a framework for assigning heterogeneous material properties to grid cells of numerical models of flow and reactive transport in subsurface media. The usefulness of such an approach hinges on being able to relate facies to quantitative properties needed for flow and reactive transport modelling, and on being able to map facies over the domain of interest using readily available information. Although aquifer facies have been used in various modelling contexts, application of this concept to riverbed sediments is relatively new. Here, we describe an approach for categorizing and mapping recent alluvial (riverbed) sediments based on the integration of diverse observations with numerical simulations of river hydrodynamics. The facies have distinct distributions of sediment texture that correspond to variations in hydraulic properties, and therefore provide a useful framework for assigning heterogeneous properties in numerical simulations of hydrologic exchange flows and biogeochemical processes.