我国能源消费结构变化与气候特征

文章利用多项式法将气候耗能量从能源消费总量中分离出来，用统计分析的方法探讨了气候耗能量与气候因子之间的关系及其变化。研究表明：从20世纪50年代到80年代初期，旱涝灾害是影响我国气候耗能量的主要气候因子，它们之间存在显著的线性相关关系，随着经济的发展和人民生活水平的提高，旱涝灾害对气候耗能量的影响逐渐减弱，气温对气候耗能量的影响日趋显著，目前正处于过渡时期。     

山东省耕地资源安全问题研究

构建耕地资源安全概念模型,通过对人口资源压力极值状态下的耕地资源安全需求与可能供给之间的综合平衡,分析山东省耕地资源安全态势。2004年山东省耕地总量为754万hm2,预测2020年全省耕地资源的安全需求量为747万hm2,同期各种原因将减少耕地42.5万hm2,后备耕地潜力为50万hm2。理论上可保障耕地资源安全,但实践操作难度较大,据此提出保障山东省耕地资源安全的相应对策。     

中国能源消费与气候变化的关系

Energy consumption has an inevitable connection with economic level and climate. Based on selected data covering annual total energy consumption and its composition and that of all kinds of energy in 1953-1999, the annual residential energy consumption and the coal and electricity consumption in 1980-1999 in China, the acreage of crops under cultivation suffered from drought and flood annually and gross domestic product (GDP) in 1953-1999 in the whole country, and mean daily temperature data from 29 provincial meteorological stations in the whole country from 1970 to 1999, this paper divides energy consumption into socio-economic energy consumption and climatic energy consumption in the way of multinomial. Itchanges between the climate energy consumption andalso goes further into the relations and their changes between the climate energy consumptionenergy consumption and the economic level inand climate factor and between the socio-economic energy between the climate energy level in China with the method of statistical analysis. At present, there are obvious transitions in the changing relationships of the energy consumption to economy and climate, which comprises the transition of economic system from resource-intensive industry to technology-intensive industry and the transition of climatic driving factors of the energy consumption from driven by the disasters of drought and flood to driven by temperature.     

能源消费与气候关系的中美比较研究

应用多项式模型把气候耗能量从能源消费总量中分离出来,用统计分析的方法探讨了中国和美国气候耗能量与气候因子之间的关系及其变化。研究表明:温度是美国近50年来影响气候耗能量的主要气候因子,中国从20世纪50年代到80年代初,旱涝灾害一直是影响中国气候耗能量的主要气候因子,它们之间存在有明显的线性相关关系,自20世纪80年代初以来,随着经济的发展和人民生活水平的提高,旱涝灾害对气候耗能量的影响明显减弱,温度对气候耗能量的影响逐渐增强,如果仅考虑气候耗能量,目前中国的能源消费变化正处于由气象灾害驱动型向温度驱动型的过渡时期。