THE IMPACT OF INITIAL FORCED WIND ON THE PREDICTABILITY OF THE ZEBIAK-CANE COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL

With simultaneous observed sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), the difference between NCEP/NCAR 925hPa reanalysis wind stress anomaly (NCEPWSA) and FSU wind stress anomaly (FSUWSA) is analyzed, and the prediction abilities of Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model (ZC coupled model) with NCEPWSA and FSUWSA serving respectively as initialization wind are compared. The results are as follows. The distribution feature of NCEPWSA matches better with that of the observed SSTA than counterpart of FSUWSA both in 1980s and in 1990s; The ZC ocean model has a better skill under the forcing of NCEPWSA than that of FSUWSA, especially in 1990s. Meanwhile, the forecast abilities of the ZC coupled model in 1990s as well as in 1980s have been improved employing NCEPWSA as initialization wind instead of FSUWSA. Particularly, it succeeded in predicting 1997/1998 El Ni?o 6 to 8 months ahead; further analysis shows that on the antecedent and onset stages of the 1997/1998 El Ni?o event, the horizontal cold and warm distribution characteristics of the simulated SSTA from ZC ocean model, with NCEPWSA forcing compared to FSUWSA forcing, match better with counterparts of the corresponding observed SSTA, whereby providing better predication initialization conditions for ZC coupled model, which, in turn, is favorable to improve the forecast ability of the coupled model.     

论空间信息与移动通信的集成应用

分析了空间信息技术与移动通信集成的必要性和可行性，讨论了技术集成所面临的关键技术，提出了空间信息与移动通信集成的体系结构，归纳总结了其应用领域和市场前景。     

EXTRA-SEASONAL PREDICTIONS OF SUMMER RAINFALL IN CHINA AND ENSO IN 2001 BY CLIMATE MODELS

China is a monsoon country.The most rainfalls in China concentrate on the summer seasons.More frequent floods or droughts occur in some parts of China.Therefore,the prediction ofsummer rainfall in China is a significant issue.As we know,the obvious impacts of the sea surfacetemperature anomalies(SSTA)on the summer rainfall over China have been noticed.Thepredictions of the SSTA have been involved in the research.The key project on short-term climate modeling prediction system has been finished in 2000.The system included an atmospheric general circulation model named AGCM95,a coupledatmospheric-oceanic general circulation model named AOGCM95,a regional climate model overChina named RegCM95,a high-resolution Indian-Pacific OGCM named IPOGCM95,and asimplified atmosphere-ocean dynamic model system named SAOMS95.They became theoperational prediction models of National Climate Center(NCC).Extra-seasonal predictions in 2001 have been conducted by several climate models,which werethe AGCM95,AOGCM95,RegCM95,IPOGCM95,AIPOGCM95,OSU/NCC,SAOMS95,IAPAPOGCM and CAMS/ZS.All of those models predicted the summer precipitation over China and/or the annual SSTA over the tropical Pacific Ocean in the Modeling Prediction Workshop held inMarch 2001.The assessments have shown that the most models predicted the distributions of main rain beltover Huanan and parts of Jiangnan and droughts over Huabei-Hetao and Huaihe River Valleyreasonably.The most models predicted successfully that a weaker cold phase of the SSTA over thecentral and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean would continue in 2001.The evaluations of extra-seasonal predictions have also indicated that the models had a certaincapability of predicting the SSTA over the tropical Pacific Ocean and the summer rainfall overChina.The assessment also showed that multi-model ensemble(super ensembles)predictionsprovided the better forecasts for both SSTA and summer rainfall in 2001,compared with the singlemodel.It is a preliminary assessment for the extra-seasonal predictions by the climate models.Thefurther investigations will be carried out.The model system should be developed and improved.     

融合多源测量数据的桥梁挠度异常探测方法

桥梁是一种重要的交通基础设施,保障了人员和物资的流动运输,桥梁安全状态监测至关重要。受桥梁自身承重、桥面移动荷载和环境温度等因素的影响,桥梁挠度不断发生变化,而挠度异常可能会引起桥梁的结构性损伤而产生安全隐患。针对目前挠度异常探测方法没有综合考虑其外部环境和挠度自身变化特征的不足,本文提出了一种融合多源测量数据的桥梁挠度异常探测方法。利用环境温度、桥面移动荷载及桥梁挠度计算多源测量数据特征并融合,通过随机森林分类模型识别异常挠度。试验结果表明,本文方法的异常探测精度达到88.18%,效果良好,并且优于其他典型机器学习模型,能够帮助桥梁管理部门及时发现桥梁挠度异常情况,从而提高桥梁维护管理水平。     

冬奥会国家速滑馆超大地坪平整度快速测量

施工期平整度测量对地坪施工质量的控制与评估具有重要意义。采用靠尺或水准仪的传统地坪平整度测量方法存在测点稀疏、效率低等不足,难以适应超大地坪施工期平整度快速、精细的测量需求。提出了一种全站仪与惯性导航系统（inertial navigation system,INS）融合的平整度快速测量方法,通过卡尔曼滤波融合全站仪和INS数据,解算小车运动轨迹,根据轨迹点的高程计算平整度指标,发明研制相应的测量设备,应用于2022年北京冬奥会国家速滑馆冰面混凝土基底施工期平整度检测。实验结果表明,所提方法精度与水准仪相当,而测量效率显著提高,不仅能对地坪施工期整体平整度质量进行评估,而且可以对平整度异常进行检测和定位,为地坪的磨平工作提供指导,具有良好的工程价值。     

SIS海冰模式中两种盐度参数化方案的差异

详细介绍了Sea Ice Simulator(SIS)海冰模式中引进两种盐度参数化方案即等盐度方案和盐度廓线方案对海冰模拟所存在的差异。利用盐度廓线方案导出的表征盐度与海冰温度间关系的方程比等盐度方案多出一项,将该项定义为盐度差异项。盐度差异项对海冰厚度的热力作用表现为:在海冰厚度增长季节(11月到次年5月),盐度差异项通过升高海冰内部温度,抑制海冰增长;在消融的第一阶段(6—8月),盐度差异项通过升高海冰内部温度加快海冰消融;在消融的第二阶段(9—10月),盐度差异项通过降低海冰内部的温度抑制海冰消融。但尺度分析表明,盐度差异项要比方程中对海冰温度作用最大项小1—2个量级,如果采用一级近似,可以略去盐度差异项,因此盐度差异项对与海冰增长和消融影响很小。同时利用GFDL中心研制的冰-洋耦合模式Modular Ocean Model(MOM4),分别采用两种盐度参数化方案模拟北极海冰厚度和海冰密集度的季节性变化,模拟结果也表明两种方案模拟得到的海冰厚度和海冰密集度的季节性变化相差甚小。     

位置感知计算中定位信息的自然语言描述

讨论位置感知计算中定位信息表达存在的不足,引入自然语言描述作为补充,介绍自然语言中的空间概念,并分析了影响空间定位信息向自然语言转换的因素,归纳为尺度依赖、方向依赖和身份依赖,讨论制约因素影响下的参考框架、参考点和方位词的选择,并以地图作为空间转化媒介,给出一组人们日常使用的定位描述句式,最后以车辆监控系统和图书馆导航为测试平台,针对室外和室内两种不同应用环境进行了自然语言描述实验.     

页岩气藏数值模拟及井底压力动态分析

为研究页岩气藏生产过程中井底压力动态及影响因素,基于质量守恒定律,考虑解吸和压力敏感系数,建立页岩气藏双孔双渗数学模型,对数学模型差分离散得到数值模型并求解;分析解吸、兰氏体积、兰氏压力、吸附时间、压力敏感系数等对井底压力双对数曲线的影响.结果表明:吸附气解吸使压降速率变缓且较晚触到边界;兰氏体积或兰氏压力越大,井底压力双对数曲线的下凹部分越明显;吸附时间常数越短,扩散效果越好,越容易达到整体径向流段;压力敏感系数越大,双对数曲线上翘越明显.该研究结果对页岩气藏开发具有指导意义.     

基于T106L26全球大气环流模式的夏季集合预报

使用国家气候中心新一代大气环流模式BCC_AGCM2.0(T106L26)进行22 a夏季(6-8月)、11个成员的集合回报试验;针对500 hPa高度场、降水和气温的预测能力进行交叉检验,并计算其均方根误差.结果表明:模式对热带地区、海洋和欧亚大陆部分地区500 hPa高度场的模拟较好;对我国长江中下游、华南大部分地区降水的模拟具有一定可信度;2m温度距平在我国北方大部分地区呈现正相关且相关系数通过90％的信度检验,在南方地区则有待改善.集合预报效果好于单样本预报.模式分辨率的提高在一定程度上有助于改进预报效果.