雷达观测的渤海湾海陆风辐合线与自动站资料的对比分析

为了研究渤海西岸海陆风的演变规律,应用天津新一代天气雷达结合地面自动气象站实时资料,统计分析2007年晴空环境下,雷达监测到的由渤海湾海陆风导致的28次边界层辐合线的生消、演变规律,并研究雷达观测的海陆风辐合线与自动站观测的渤海湾海陆风的对应关系.结果表明:(1)雷达探测的沿海岸线形成的边界层辐合线对应的就是渤海湾海陆风辐合线;(2)海陆风辐合线只有在每年的5-9月才能在雷达上观测到,而且主要集中在6-9月;(3)晴空环境下,当较强的一条海陆风辐合线沿海岸线或在海上生成后移过雷达站,或直接生成在雷达站西北侧时,自动站观测显示陆风转为海风;(4)雷达探测的海陆风辐舍线强度越强,且其垂直伸展高度越高,对应的自动站观测的海风风速越大.     

台湾海峡海陆风数值模式与数值模拟试验

研制了一个包括水平及垂直扩散、牛顿冷却的二维46层非弹性运动方程组的台湾海峡海陆风数值模式,并用此模式来模拟及研究台湾海峡两岸海陆风的生成与变化特征.模式中考虑了太阳辐射、长波辐射及其日变化、地表向大气的感热与潜热输送以及向土壤层的热传导等.数值计算中采用了分解算法及隐式时间差分方案.用此模式得出的模拟结果与闽东南及台湾海陆风的观测事实比较吻合,表明了此模式能够较好地描述海峡两岸的海陆风变化规律.     

珠江口地区海陆风系的研究

选取香港、澳门、广州三站为珠江口地区的指标站，对三站多年的观测资料进行统计分析，得到了珠江口地区海陆风现象的一些特征。并用细网格Mass模式对该地区的海陆风风系作诊断研究，得到了该地区海陆风风系的细致分布特征，在指标站该诊断结果与观测资料相一致。     

华南沿海五月份海陆风温压场特征与降水

本文分析了华南沿海1978年5月份与海陆风相对应的温压场特征。结果发现,海陆风风向与温度距平和气压距平等值线近于垂直,由冷高指向暖低。在沿海地区,温压梯度最强,海陆风也最大。从海陆风温压场建立至海陆风形成时间短促。海陆风对温压梯度具有削弱作用,因而海陆风制约了海陆风本身的发展。此外,本文还发现,海陆风辐合场与华南沿海降水中心有密切的关系。     

辽东湾西部地区海陆风初探

辽东湾西部地区四奉均存在海陆风天气,且海陆风是这一地区一主要天气特征。在一定的条件下产生海陆风,不管是空中流场还是地面流场都有其规律性。本文列出我们在辽东湾研究海陆风的一些结论,这些结论反映了中纬度地区海陆风的基本特征。     

海陆风研究进展与我国沿海三地海陆风主要特征

海陆风是发生在海岸附近由于海陆热力差异引起的中尺度环流,对沿海地区天气气候和环境空气质量有重要影响,本文综述海陆风研究进展与我国华南、长三角和环渤海3个不同地区海陆风的主要特征.海陆风研究可分为观测研究、理论研究、数值模拟研究.20世纪60年代以来的观测研究表明,全球高、中、低纬沿海地区都有海陆风.海陆风理论研究已从20世纪20年代力的平衡分析发展到海陆热力平衡非线性动力学解析与数值模拟相结合研究海陆风的参数化,模拟研究已逐步成为主要手段.我国华南、长三角和环渤海3个不同地区海陆风有明显差异,海风盛行和结束时间不尽相同,低纬地区海风出现较晚,甚至可持续至午夜时分.海陆风有可能造成污染物的累积,使空气质量变差,应引起沿海地区有关部门的重视.     

鲁北沿海强对流天气多发的成因及临近预报

潍坊北部系海陆交界处，由于地理因素，经常形成海陆风锋，当海陆风锋与其他天气系统叠加，会使系统加强，天气剧烈，在夏季是鲁北强对流天气多发的重要原因。一次冷锋过程分析说明与海陆风锋叠加能形成强锋区，锋区上的D、ζ有利于上升运动，与之对应的地面高能区为系统提供了能源。通过对鲁北21个强对流天气个例研究，建立了冰雹云移动路径的临近预报方程。这些研究对鲁北多发强对流天气的成因及冰雹落区预报具有参考价值。     

辽东半岛西岸海陆风及热内边界层的观测研究

应用１９９３年在辽东半岛西岸进行的现场观测试验资料，对该地出现海陆风及热内边界层进行了分析研究，得到了该地海陆风在各个月份出现的频率、海风起止时间、海风伸向内陆的距离等，同时还得到了热内边界层的高度随离海岸距离改变的规律。     

海州湾不同走向海岸的海陆风异同分析

通过对海州湾沿岸3座梯度测风塔和19座自动气象站一年的逐日24h自记风资料的统计,得到海州湾沿岸的海陆风,在此基础上提出了海陆风“净值”的概念.结合海陆风“净值”分析海州湾沿岸的海陆风环流特征发现:海州湾沿岸南北两段的海陆风具有明显的差异,南北走向的海岸海陆风比西北一东南走向海岸的弱,且转换时间迟;并粗略地估计了海风向...     

大连金州地区海陆风特征分析

根据2005年大连金州气象站的常规风向风速资料对金州地区的海陆风特征进行了分析,并应用MM5v3模式模拟了海陆风发生时的风场变化,计算了海风和陆风延伸到内陆和海面的距离。结果表明:大连金州地区海陆风的发生主要受太阳辐射强度和海陆温差的影响,在春夏季晴朗天气条件下海陆风发生的频率较高、平均风速较大,而海陆风的延伸距离主要受风速影响。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on