河北省输电线路舞动特点及气象因素分析

利用2007—2010年河北省发生的9次输电线路舞动故障资料和代表气象站的观测资料,分析了输电线路舞动的时空分布特点;从降水、气温、平均相对湿度、风速等方面研究了影响输电线路舞动的气象条件;对导致输电线路舞动的天气过程、环流背景和冷空气路径进行了详细的分析。结果表明:河北省有2个输电线路舞动高发区,分别在蔚县和沽源;输电线路舞动出现在雨、雨夹雪或雨转雪的天气条件下,气温经历(或接近)0 ℃(最高气温≥0 ℃、最低气温≤0 ℃),平均相对湿度≥70%;在平原地区,平均风速≥4 m/s,最大风速≥7 m/s,在山区风速条件较平原低;输电线路舞动前后风速存在短周期的高频变化;输电线路舞动产生在地面等压线密集的区域,舞动区域与冷空气路径有关。      

西安咸阳国际机场专用高速公路雾的特征及影响因子

利用西安咸阳国际机场专用高速公路(以下简称西咸机场高速公路)段交通气象站及其10km范围内区(县)气象站的观测资料,以及MICAPS高空和地面资料,研究了西咸机场高速公路雾的变化特征、典型环流形势和气象影响因子。结果表明:雾主要发生在夜间至清晨,能见度越小的雾生成的时间越集中,2月、4月和10—12月出现的雾可持续较长的时间;典型雾日,500hPa陕西关中地区为一致的西北或偏西气流,850hPa陕西关中及其以南地区受弱暖脊控制且处于反气旋环流的底部,西咸机场高速公路及其周边地区近地面层有逆温形成,且风速小,湿度大;有利于雾发生的气象条件包括相对湿度≥80%、地面风速≤3m/s和地表温度与气温之差≥-3℃等,14时相对湿度、14时气温与未来时刻气温的差都与相应时刻能见度密切相关。     

天山天池雾凇景观旅游气象等级指数分析

利用天池气象站1981—2018年的雾凇天气现象资料分析天山天池的雾凇特征。用2004—2018年雾凇天气现象出现时的逐小时气温、温度露点差、相对湿度、风等数据，分析雾凇与气象要素的关系。结果表明：天山天池年平均雾凇27.8 d，冬季最多，春季次之；每年11月—翌年3月是雾凇的多发时段，其中3月最多；雾凇出现的开始时间多在夜间，结束时间多在12—17时。年雾凇日数以9.8 d/10 a的速率呈波动减少趋势，冬季减少速率为4.4 d/10 a。天山天池出现雾凇最有利的气象条件是，气温在-4～-10℃，温度露点差≤2.0℃，相对湿度>90%，风速≤3.0 m/s。选取气温、温度露点差、相对湿度、2 min平均风速、雾等对雾凇形成影响较大的气象因子，建立天山天池雾凇气象等级指数并进行典型年份检验，该指数可以作为旅游气象服务业务的一项参考指标。     

天山中段雪岭云杉森林冬春季小气候变化特征分析

利用天山中段雪岭云杉林区连续气象观测资料,初步分析了林内外冬、春季小气候特征的变化规律。结果表明,雪岭云杉林对小气候特征存在明显影响,冬、春季林内平均气温、地表温度相对林外均明显偏低,相对湿度均显著大于林外;林内同林外比,冬季、春季气温偏低分别在1.3~1.7℃、0.5~1.2℃之间,且林内气温日较差和相对湿度变化幅度明显小于林外。林内风速小,日变化不明显,静风的频率最大;冬、春季林外平均风速分别为2.0 m/s、2.5 m/s,而林内分别为0.2、0.3 m/s。     

盘县近50a来雨凇天气过程气候特征分析

利用盘县国家基本气象站1960—2008年的雨凇观测资料,对盘县近50 a来的雨凇天气过程的时空分布特征作了较为全面的分析,结果表明:①盘县年平均雨凇日数为5.7d,雨凇最早出现时间为12-10,最晚结束时间为次年的03-05,过程最长持续时间20d,年最多雨凇日数高达31d。②盘县以20世纪60年代出现雨凇最为频繁,20世纪80年代和21世纪初次之,20世纪90年代出现最少。③盘县雨凇均发生在12月—次年的3月,以1月出现最多。④雨凇存在的特点与冬季气温有关,相对冷冬年份的雨凇日数比相对暖冬或正常年份的雨凇日数偏多。⑤当雨凇天气发生时,气象条件基本满足气温≤0℃,日降水量为0.6mm左右,相对湿度≥85%,风速在0~3m/s之间。     

长白山景区冰雪旅游人数与气象条件的关系研究

以长白山景区东岗气象站1957-2014年11月至次年3月气温、降雪、风速资料,长白山景区2009-2013年逐日旅游人数资料为基础数据,利用气候倾向值、相关系数、显示性检验等方法,分析了长白山景区冬季降雪、最低气温、最高气温变化特征及旅游人数与气象要素的关系。结果表明:景区降雪量呈增加趋势,趋势值为0.88mm/10a,最低气温、最高气温同样呈上升趋势,最低气温升温趋势高于最高气温;进入21世纪以来,最低、最高气温呈下降趋势,下降幅度分别达到-0.70℃/10a和-0.67℃/10a;降雪的变化幅度比较大;旅游人数与降雪存在负相关,特别是中雪以上量级的降雪,相关性更好,通过0.05的显著性检验;最高气温小于等于-11℃是旅游人数的高值区,当最高气温达到-18℃以下,旅游人数达到最低值。在最低气温大于等于-20℃是旅游人数相对的高值,-20℃以下旅游人数随着最低气温的下降,旅游的人数减少。平均气温与旅游人数的相关性不明显。旅游人数与平均风速、最大风速都呈负相关。在工作日期间风速在2m/s-7m/s之间是旅游人数的相对最大值,从7m/s以上随着风速的增大,旅游人数呈下降趋势,当风速在11m/s以上时人数达到最少。在公休日期间风速≤2m/s是旅游人数相对最大值,次大值出现在8m/s,从8m/s开始随着风速的增大,旅游人数呈下降趋势,在12m/s以上时人数达到最少。     

雁荡山云海的时空变化特征及其与气象因子的关系

用北雁荡气象站1960—2012年气象要素资料,分析近50余年雁荡山云海时空变化特征以及云海与气温、降水、相对湿度、风速的关系。结果表明,雁荡山年平均云海日164.92 d,但年际差异明显,最多年份215d,最少年份58 d。年内差异也明显,春季最多,云海日(8成以上云海日)平均有50.89 d(32.77 d),秋季最少。各月云海日数与月平均气温相关不明显,但与相对湿度呈较明显的正相关关系,云海日数(8成以上云海日数)序列与月平均相对湿度序列的相关系数为0.82(0.64)。统计分析8成以上云海日与关键气象因子关系可得,云海出现当天或前一天一般都有降水,云海出现当天一般相对湿度≥80%、平均风速≤4.5 m/s。     

萧山站迁站观测资料对比评估

利用2016年(站址迁移对比期)萧山国家一般气象站新、旧址的气温、降水、相对湿度、风向、风速等气象要素逐日观测值,采用差值标准差、降水量累计相对差值、风向相符率、显著性检验等统计方法,对以上气象要素进行对比分析,结果表明:1)新址的平均气温、最高气温、最低气温的年平均值均低于旧址,差值分别为-0.4℃、-0.7℃、-0.2℃,新、旧址的最高气温差异最大;新、旧址的平均气温、最高气温、最低气温在春、夏季节比较接近,而在秋、冬季节相差较大。2)新址相对湿度大于旧址,差值年平均为3%,新、旧址相对湿度的变化趋势基本一致,其中9—12月新旧址的相对湿度差值较大。3)新址的年降水量比旧址偏多110.3 mm,雨日比旧址偏少22 d,年降水量累计相对差值为7%,4—6月和9—11月期间新旧址的降水量观测数据差异较大。4)新址平均风速、最大风速、极大风速均比旧址偏大,差值年平均分别为2.0 m/s、3.6 m/s、3.5 m/s,新、旧址在春、夏季的风速相差较小,秋、冬季相差大,新、旧址在大风日数和静风出现次数上一致性较差;全年风向相符率为42.5%,两站址风向一致性较差。5)平均气温、降水量和平均相对湿度月(年)平均值与旧址近20 a的观测数据差异不显著,平均风速差异显著。分析认为,测站环境、海拔的不同以及小气候的影响,是造成以上要素差异的主要原因。     

基于逐时资料的黄山雾凇特征及气象条件分析

利用2004—2016年黄山气象站逐日、逐时地面气象观测资料分析了雾凇的时间分布特征及气象条件。结果表明:(1)黄山年平均雾凇日61.6d,年份之间差异明显;雾凇初日主要在11月,终日主要在3—4月;连续雾凇日数多在3～4d,占40%,各年均出现了连续雾凇日数≥10d的情况。(2)雾凇出现在10月至次年4月,其中12月至次年3月雾凇日数占89.8%;月平均雾凇日数与月平均气温呈显著负相关。雾凇还存在一定的日变化,08:00—09:00最多,18:00最少。(3)逐日资料统计表明,适宜雾凇出现的气象条件是雾日且日平均气温在-8～2℃之间、平均相对湿度≥80%、平均风速2～9m/s。(4)逐时资料统计表明,雾凇的形成主要受气温影响,雾凇形成前需7h以上的累计低温(≤0℃),适宜雾凇形成的气象条件是有雾且气温在-6～1℃之间,湿度≥95%,风速2～11m/s,较好地反映了雾凇形成的临界气象条件。     

2005—2015年庐山云海时间变化特征及气象条件分析

采用经验频率分布、趋势分析等统计分析方法,分析了庐山气象站2005-2015年云海时间变化特征及其与气温、相对湿度和风向风速等气象要素的关系。结果表明：（1）庐山云海平均年日数为133.73 d,最多年份为172 d（2005年）,最少年份为106 d（2012年）,云海日数呈递减趋势。（2）庐山云海适宜的气象条件为：平均气温8.7~21.0℃,最高气温12.7~24.7℃,最低气温5.7~18.6℃,相对湿度 ≥ 82%,风速1.9~4.8 m·s^-1,风向为SSE和S。和无云海时相比,有云海时气温要素整体偏高,相对湿度条件更好,风速频率分布接近。（3）在2005-2015年的云海日中,有效探空数据共1 840时次,其中500时次出现逆温,占27.2%;平均逆温层底高度为793.1 m,平均逆温层厚度为1 054.4 m,平均逆温强度为0.25℃·（100 m）^-1,均大于无云海时的逆温参数。有云海时,逆温层底高度300~2 000 m和逆温强度大于等于0.4℃·（100 m）^-1所占百分比较无云海时更大,表明有云海时逆温层底更高,逆温层更厚,逆温强度更强。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on