漠河地区臭氧的观测和计算

1997年3月上旬,在黑龙江漠河地区对地面和整层臭氧、太阳辐射等进行了短期观测,以初步了解该地区臭氧和辐射的变化规律以及它们之间的相互关系.研究发现,漠河地区近地面臭氧日变化明显,其峰值出现在每日10:00(北京时间)左右,并早于紫外辐射(UV)峰值出现时间.整层大气臭氧总量的日变化特征不明显.基于UV能量守恒,建立了臭氧与其影响因子-光化学、散射、UV等因子之间较好的定量关系和经验模式,并将其用于计算地面、整层大气臭氧小时值和日平均值.结果表明,计算值与观测值吻合的都比较好,它们相对偏差的平均值分别为:地面臭氧小时值(11.9%)和日平均值(9.0%);整层大气臭氧小时值和日平均值-7.4%、1.8%.因此,地面和整层臭氧的经验算法是合理和可行的.利用散射辐射/直接辐射(D/S)和散射辐射/总辐射(D/Q)可以描述大气中的物质如气溶胶、云等的散射作用.采用D/Q表示散射作用可以提高地面臭氧和整层大气臭氧计算的准确度,特别是对云量较大的情况.       

火山气溶胶对北京地区臭氧总量变化趋势的影响

分析了1979～1995年北京地区臭氧总量的变化趋势、1980～1994年整层气溶胶光学厚度和1981～1985、1990～1994年平流层气溶胶光学厚度。分析依据的数据资料来自Dobson仪器所观测的臭氧总量资料和太阳辐射表提供的气溶胶光学厚度资料。结果表明,1979～1995年期间北京地区臭氧总量年变化率为-0.269%,1982～1985、1991～1994年间臭氧总量年变化率分别高达-0.954%和-1.439%。这说明厄尔奇琼火山和皮纳图博火山爆发对臭氧总量减少可能起到重要作用。     

1990～2002年北京地区大气臭氧垂直分布Umkehr观测反演研究

基于标准Umkehr反演算法, 利用北京地区Dobson仪器逆转观测资料, 反演计算出臭氧垂直分布.在反演过程中加入气溶胶订正因子, 使反演结果更加合理.利用臭氧垂直分布反演结果, 研究1990～2002年北京地区臭氧垂直分布特征和变化情况.结果表明在1992年秋季和1993年春季期间, 在10.3～23.5 km范围内臭氧浓度有较大幅度降低, 造成了这个期间月平均臭氧总量的明显偏低; 1990年到2002年期间, 臭氧总量的变化呈现出缓慢下降趋势, 但不同高度臭氧含量的变化趋势有所不同.     

近20年北京晴天紫外辐射的变化趋势

在对北京晴天1990年1月～1991年12月太阳辐射观测资料进行了详细分析的基础上,得到了计算晴天紫外辐射的计算公式,结果表明,计算值与观测值吻合得比较好,计算值与观测值的最大相对偏差为6.2%,24个月相对偏差的平均值为1.9%.利用此公式计算了北京晴天1979～1998年的紫外辐射,并给出了1979～1998年紫外辐射的变化趋势,发现近20年北京地区晴天的紫外辐射呈下降趋势,并对其产生原因以及影响紫外辐射的各个因子进行了详细分析.     

北京地区太阳紫外辐射的观测与分析研究

利用北京地区太阳辐射和其它常规气象观测资料，得到了到达地面的太阳紫外辐射的计算公式，并将计算值与观测值进行了比较，两者吻合得比较好。最后给出了北京地区地面太阳紫外总辐射的变化趋势，计算结果表明，地面太阳紫外总辐射对大气浑浊度的变化比对大气臭氧总量的变化敏感得多。     

利用太阳直射光谱计算平川上空水汽和臭氧总量

本文利用“HEIFE”1991年10月加强观测期在平川荒漠地区观测的太阳光谱资料．对平川上空大气中水汽总量和臭氧总量进行了计算。计算指出利用多渡段太阳光谱资料拟合Angstroem参数,并引入1hλ的三次多项式．大大地提高了气溶胶光学厚度的计算精度．在上述基础上计算出平川上空10月份臭氧总量平均为0．323cm-atm,水汽的光学厚度为0．238．分析发现该地区水汽总量与地面相对湿度有较好的相关．其相关系数达0．825。文中对水汽计算的几种方法还进行了比较与讨论。     

动力传输和地表排放对北京地区对流层臭氧长期变化的影响

利用2003—2013年北京地区臭氧探空资料和多种再分析资料,结合CAM-chem模式模拟分析了北京地区对流层臭氧的长期变化趋势及影响因子。结果表明:近11 a来,北京地区对流层臭氧整体呈明显增加趋势,对流层臭氧总量每年增加约0.98 DU,且地表排放对该地区对流层臭氧增加的贡献相比动力过程更大。其中,由平流层向下输送造成的对流层臭氧总量每年增加约为0.13×10~(-3)~0.17×10~(-3)Tg,对北京地区对流层臭氧总量的增加贡献约20%;由水平输送造成的臭氧增加每年约为0.06×10~(-3)Tg,对臭氧总量增加贡献约10%;而由地表排放造成的对流层臭氧增加约占该地区对流层臭氧总增加量的60%。     

中国西北地区大气气溶胶散射光学厚度分析

提出一种利用地方气象台站测得的地表宽谱 ( 0 .3～ 4 μm)逐日太阳辐射日总量资料 (包括太阳总辐射和漫射太阳辐射 )来估算晴空无云天气条件下背景大气中大气气溶胶散射光学厚度的方法 ,这主要是基于地表的太阳总辐射和漫射太阳辐射对大气气溶胶散射光学特性的敏感性。该方法建立在观测数据和模式计算结果相互比较的基础上 ,而不需要知道某地相关的云、臭氧或水汽的探空资料。利用此方法 ,我们使用来自我国西北干旱地区 6个地方气象台站 (兰州、敦煌、民勤、格尔木、乌鲁木齐、喀什 ) 1986— 1992年的逐日太阳总辐射和漫射太阳辐射日总量资料 ,得到了大气气溶胶散射光学厚度在年际和月际间的时空变化特征     

Comparison between ozonesonde measurements and satellite retrievals over Beijing,China

从2013年开始,作者团队使用自主研发电化学原理臭氧探空仪在华北平原北京地区进行每周一次观测.本研究首次使用2013-2019年期间北京地区臭氧探空数据评估Aqua卫星搭载大气红外探测仪(AIRS)和Aura卫星搭载微波临边探测器(MLS)反演垂直臭氧廓线,并对比臭氧探空,AIRS和Aura卫星搭载臭氧监测仪(OMI)臭氧柱总量结果.尽管臭氧探空与卫星反演垂直臭氧廓线在局部高度处差异较大,但整体来说两者较为接近(相对偏差大多<10%).臭氧探空,AIRS和OMI三种仪器测量臭氧柱总量的年变化特征较为一致,其年均臭氧柱总量分别为351.8±18.4 DU,348.8±19.5 DU和336.9±14.2 DU.后续对国内多站点观测数据分析将有助于进一步理解臭氧探空与卫星反演臭氧资料在不同区域的一致性.     

利用多波段分光仪观测生物有效UV辐射、臭氧总量和云的影响

该文介绍了一种利用紫外分光仪进行辐照度观测获取生物有效UV辐射、臭氧总量和云的光学厚度的方法。这些量是观测的辐照度与辐射传输计算相结合后测定的。该方法被用于具有 4个中心波长为 30 5、32 0、340和 380nm ,宽度为 10nm的 4波段分光仪。将这种仪器与高精度分光光度计在美国圣迭戈不同天气条件下进行了为期 1周的对比观测。当太阳天顶角 (SZA) <80°时 ,CIE 权重UV辐射剂量率的相对误差为 1.4± 3.2 %。晴天条件下 ,当SZA <80°时 ,相对误差为 0 .6± 1.5%。该仪器观测的辐照度推算的臭氧总量对云并不敏感。这种仪器还与Dobson和Brewer仪器在挪威奥斯陆进行了一年多的对比观测。整个观测期间 (包括有云的情况 )获得的臭氧总量相对误差为 0 .3± 2 .9%。当晴天和SZA <6 0°时 ,标准差减小到 1.9%。将仪器观测中所获得的臭氧总量和云的光学厚度输入到辐射传输模式 ,可以计算从 2 90～ 4 0 0nm分辨率为 1nm的整个光谱。这样计算的光谱与同时用高精度分光光度计观测的光谱在晴天及有云的条件下非常一致 ,所以 ,这种光谱可以用于测定任何作用光谱的辐射剂量率。而计算这种光谱只需要一个UV B通道和一个UV A通道     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Retrieval of outgoing longwave radiation from COMS narrowband infrared imagery

Hourly outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) from the geostationary satellite Communication Oceanography Meteorological Satellite(COMS) has been retrieved since June 2010. The COMS OLR retrieval algorithms are based on regression analyses of radiative transfer simulations for spectral functions of COMS infrared channels. This study documents the accuracies of OLRs for future climate applications by making an intercomparison of four OLRs from one single-channel algorithm(OLR12.0using the 12.0 μm channel) and three multiple-channel algorithms(OLR10.8+12.0using the 10.8 and 12.0 μm channels; OLR6.7+10.8using the 6.7 and 10.8 μm channels; and OLR All using the 6.7, 10.8, and 12.0 μm channels). The COMS OLRs from these algorithms were validated with direct measurements of OLR from a broadband radiometer of the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System(CERES) over the full COMS field of view [roughly(50°S–50°N, 70°–170°E)] during April 2011.Validation results show that the root-mean-square errors of COMS OLRs are 5–7 W m-2, which indicates good agreement with CERES OLR over the vast domain. OLR6.7+10.8and OLR All have much smaller errors(～ 6 W m-2) than OLR12.0and OLR10.8+12.0(～ 8 W m-2). Moreover, the small errors of OLR6.7+10.8and OLR All are systematic and can be readily reduced through additional mean bias correction and/or radiance calibration. These results indicate a noteworthy role of the6.7 μm water vapor absorption channel in improving the accuracy of the OLRs. The dependence of the accuracy of COMS OLRs on various surface, atmospheric, and observational conditions is also discussed.     

Information for Authors

AIMS AND SCOPE
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome.     

Our Warmest Thanks to AAS Reviewers 2014

正The editorial office of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences(AAS),on behalf of all AAS editors,would like to publicly acknowledge the people listed below who served as reviewers for the journal daring 1 September 2013 to 24 August 2014.We recognize that the time and work of the reviewers is the most important resource in academic publishing.The quality of our journal depends in a crucial way upon the reviewing process and therefore all reviewers'time and efforts taken to sustain the quality of the journal are greatly appreciated.     

Data selection using support vector regression

Geophysical data sets are growing at an ever-increasing rate, requiring computationally efficient data selection(thinning)methods to preserve essential information. Satellites, such as Wind Sat, provide large data sets for assessing the accuracy and computational efficiency of data selection techniques. A new data thinning technique, based on support vector regression(SVR), is developed and tested. To manage large on-line satellite data streams, observations from Wind Sat are formed into subsets by Voronoi tessellation and then each is thinned by SVR(TSVR). Three experiments are performed. The first confirms the viability of TSVR for a relatively small sample, comparing it to several commonly used data thinning methods(random selection, averaging and Barnes filtering), producing a 10% thinning rate(90% data reduction), low mean absolute errors(MAE) and large correlations with the original data. A second experiment, using a larger dataset, shows TSVR retrievals with MAE < 1 m s-1and correlations 0.98. TSVR was an order of magnitude faster than the commonly used thinning methods. A third experiment applies a two-stage pipeline to TSVR, to accommodate online data. The pipeline subsets reconstruct the wind field with the same accuracy as the second experiment, is an order of magnitude faster than the nonpipeline TSVR. Therefore, pipeline TSVR is two orders of magnitude faster than commonly used thinning methods that ingest the entire data set. This study demonstrates that TSVR pipeline thinning is an accurate and computationally efficient alternative to commonly used data selection techniques.     

Temporal vulnerability in hazardscapes: Flood memory-networks and referentiality along the North Carolina Neuse River (USA)

Social models of population vulnerability to disasters increasingly include the notion that vulnerability has a strong temporal component. While this temporality is typically conceptualized as objective (making vulnerability “dynamic,” “multiscalar,” and/or “historical”), it consistently fails to acknowledge that among stakeholders managing hazardscapes temporality is also a social process in which subjective experience of time may play a role in creating situations of population vulnerability. This paper proposes that the temporal situatedness of a population relative to past hazard events and the quality with which stakeholders engage hazard memory-chains combine to significantly influences its vulnerability to natural hazards. It is proposed that this temporal vulnerability is characterized by shared, population level potential for surprise and can be evaluated by exploration of time-series depth and temporal reference points in historical ecological narratives and documents. Based on ethnohistoric research conducted from 2002 to 2006 in flood-prone eastern North Carolina (USA), it is illustrated how temporal vulnerability was relatively higher in the Neuse River watershed located at the City of Kinston than surrounding watersheds. Due to the combination of factors including the damming of the Neuse River in the 1980s, outdated official floodplain maps, relatively unmonitored floodplain development, the stochastic timing of flood events (placing the last major flood more than a generation away), technological optimism, and turnover of floodplain officials and residents, local stakeholders were seriously misinformed about the space-time risks involved both before and after the disaster of Hurricane Floyd (1999) happened. To deal with this inconsistency, the temporal rarity of Hurricane Floyd as a “500-year event” has been motivated and embraced by many in an effort to continue life-as-is. The paper proposes that the concept of temporal vulnerability is further explored and used as key dimension in the vulnerability sciences.     

An assessment of the predictability of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet based on TIGGE data

The predictability of the position, spatial coverage and intensity of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet(EASWJ) in the summers of 2010 to 2012 was examined for ensemble prediction systems(EPSs) from four representative TIGGE centers,including the ECMWF, the NCEP, the CMA, and the JMA. Results showed that each EPS predicted all EASWJ properties well, while the levels of skill of all EPSs declined as the lead time extended. Overall, improvements from the control to the ensemble mean forecasts for predicting the EASWJ were apparent. For the deterministic forecasts of all EPSs, the prediction of the average axis was better than the prediction of the spatial coverage and intensity of the EASWJ. ECMWF performed best, with a lead of approximately 0.5–1 day in predictability over the second-best EPS for all EASWJ properties throughout the forecast range. For probabilistic forecasts, differences in skills among the different EPSs were more evident in the earlier part of the forecast for the EASWJ axis and spatial coverage, while they departed obviously throughout the forecast range for the intensity. ECMWF led JMA by about 0.5–1 day for the EASWJ axis, and by about 1–2 days for the spatial coverage and intensity at almost all lead times. The largest lead of ECMWF over the relatively worse EPSs, such as NCEP and CMA, was approximately 3–4 days for all EASWJ properties. In summary, ECMWF showed the highest level of skill for predicting the EASWJ, followed by JMA.     

汉江流域极端水文事件时空分布特征

利用1960-2012年汉江流域15个气象站点的日降雨资料和3个水文站同时期日径流资料,分析了9个极端降雨指数的空间分布规律,运用广义极值分布（GEV）、Gamma分布两种极值统计模型对各站点的最大1 d降雨、最大3 d降雨极值样本进行拟合,遴选描述降雨极值分布规律最优概率模型,进而推算给定重现期下的降雨设计值,并分析其空间分布规律;选用Gumbel、Clayton和Frank这3种Copula函数建立降雨-洪量极值联合分布模型,优选最合适的Copula函数,由此计算给定重现期下的洪量设计值。结果表明：GEV分布模型能更好地模拟降雨极值序列,不同重现期下的降雨极值在空间上均呈西低东高的特征;3种Copula函数中,Frank Copula函数能更好地拟合降雨-洪量相关关系,由此推求的洪量设计值大于单变量拟合设计值。