Numerical prediction of an intense convective system associated with the July 1987 montreal flood. part I: Gravity waves and the squall line

Abstract

In this study, a 24‐h high‐resolution numerical prediction of a prefrontal squall line associated with the 14 July 1987 Montreal flood is employed to investigate the origin and role of mesoscale gravity waves in the development of the squall system. The 24‐h integration using an improved mesoscale version of the Canadian regional finite‐element model is first validated against available observations; then non‐observable features are diagnosed to reveal the relationship between deep convection and gravity wave events. It is shown that the model reproduces well many aspects of the squall line, such as the propagation and organization of the convective system, as well as its associated precipitation. It is found that gravity waves are first excited near Lake Erie, following the initiation of early convective activity. Then, these waves propagate eastward and northeastward at speeds of 20 and 35 m s^‐1, respectively. As the waves propagate downstream, deep convection radiates rapidly behind the wave trough axis, forming a long line of squall convection. Because the squall line moves with the gravity waves in a “phase‐locked” manner, deep convection has a significant influence on the structure and amplitude of the gravity waves. The sensitivity of the wave‐squall prediction to various parameters in convective parameterization is also examined.     

Numerical prediction of an intense convective system associated with the July 1987 montreal flood. part II: A trailing stratiform rainband

Abstract

In this study, the internal circulation structures of the 14 July 1987 intense mesoscale convective system (MCS) are investigated using an improved high‐resolution version of the Canadian regional finite‐element model. It is found that although the MCS is characterized by a leading convective line followed by a trailing stratiform rainband, the associated circulation structures differ substantially from those in the classical midlatitude squall system. These include the rapid propagation and separation of the leading convection from the trailing rainband, the development of a surface‐based instead of an elevated rear‐to‐front descending flow and a shallow front‐to‐rear ascending flow associated with the stratiform precipitation, the generation of low‐ and mid‐level rather than mid‐ to upper‐level stratiform cloudiness and the development of a strong anticyclonic vorticity band at the back edge of the stratiform region. It is shown that the trailing stratiform rainband is dynamically forced by frontogenetical processes, and aided by the release of conditional symmetric instability and local orographical lifting. The intense leading and trailing circulations result from latent heat released by the convective and explicit cloud schemes, respectively. Sensitivity experiments reveal that the proper coupling of these two cloud schemes is instrumental in obtaining a realistic prediction of the above‐mentioned various mesoscale components. Vorticity budget calculations show that tilting of horizontal vorticity contributes the most to the amplification of the anticyclonic vorticity band, particularly during the squall's incipient stage. The sensitivity of the simulated squall system to other model physical parameters is also examined.     

一次华南强飑线过程的数值模拟分析

采用高分辨率中尺度数值模式WRF对2007年4月17日华南强飑线过程进行数值模拟,并利用数值模拟结果对强飑线过程进行诊断分析,探讨其触发和维持机制.结果表明,低层中尺度辐合线及切变线是本次飑线过程主要的触发系统和重要的维持机制之一,干侵入和对流性不稳定以及低空辐合高空辐散对飑线的发展和维持有着重要的作用.此外,WRF模式能成功地模拟出本次飑线过程的β中尺度结构特征,表明该模式对强对流天气系统有一定的模拟能力.     

基于雷达资料同化的飑线过程数值模拟试验研究

利用中尺度WRF模式及其3DVAR同化系统对2014年3月30日发生在我国华南地区的一次飑线过程展开多普勒天气雷达资料的同化效果试验研究。首先对雷达资料进行去地物杂波、退速度模糊等预处理,后设计了基于不同雷达观测量的同化试验及同化频次的敏感性试验。结果表明:直接循环同化雷达径向风资料和雷达反射率因子能够增加数值模式中的中小尺度信息,提供可靠的水汽分布;不同的同化频次对同化结果影响显著,每12 min同化间隔的结果略优于30 min、60 min同化间隔;同化雷达反射率因子和径向风资料分别对模式的总水场和风场有显著调整,联合同化雷达反射率因子和径向风资料比单独同化反射率因子或径向风更能改善飑线垂直结构配置,促使地面冷池和雷暴高压配合,进一步改善模式对大雨和暴雨量级降水预报效果。     

江淮地区暖区飑线中尺度观测研究

本文依据地面、高空常规资料,华东中尺度天气试验加密资料,地面温、压、湿、风、降水自记及卫星、雷达资料,对1983年4月27日晚至28日晨的江淮地区暖区飑线进行分析,揭示了飑线的一些有意思的特征。分析表明,飑线经大别山东侧自西向东传播,接近低空西南风急流轴时,对流强度发生变化;飑线过境有短时增温、伴有降性阵水特征;飑线的地面气压由β尺度的飑前中低压、飑后中高压及紧随其后的对称中低压组成。由空间结构分析看到飑前有自近地层开始的暖湿入流,飑后有来自对流层中高层的下沉气流等特征。将其和热带及美国的中纬度飑线比较发现,这次暖区飑线的气压场、温度场、风场及天气分布与经典飑线有差异,与热带及美国中纬度飑线也有区别,我们认为这是副热带地区暖区飑线的特点。     

华南飑线升尺度增长过程中的多尺度能量相互作用分析

采用WRF模式对华南飑线的升尺度增长过程进行模拟,利用Barnes滤波将模式数据分解为三个尺度,分别代入相应的能量方程中进行计算,从能量角度研究飑线升尺度增长过程中动能和位能的变化,以及三个尺度系统能量的相互转化.研究表明:动能的变化与飑线过程中各尺度系统的演变有较好的对应,β中小尺度对流的发展对应β中小尺度系统动能的...     

华东飑线过程中的地面中尺度物理特征

本文利用华东中尺度天气试验资料和雷达回波,分析了9例强飑线过程中逐时地面物理量场的变化。提出中尺度散度场的配置及变化与中尺度强对流天气有十分密切的关系,而中尺度扰动辐合强度演变与锋前暖区内的中尺度扰动风场汇合线有关,这些关系往往能预示中尺度强对流天气的出现和发展。有时,在飑线发展的过程中具有中尺度重力波特征。     

启动对流的初始扰动对热带飑线模拟的影响

在中尺度数值模拟及数值预报中,正确的对流启动是模拟或预报是否取得成功的关键。作者针对一次热带海洋飑线过程,利用一个风暴尺度云分辨数值模式进行数值模拟,采用不同的初始扰动触发与启动对流发展,重点讨论这些不同启动对流的初始扰动对飑线演变、生命史及其成熟结构等模拟的影响。结果表明,初始扰动的结构、形态分布及其与环境场的不同配置对具有深对流的飑线生命史存在重要影响,而对飑线的成熟结构影响较小。     

The Effects of Strong Ageostrophic Outflows on the Formation of Surface Mesoscale Pressure Systems in Squall Lines

Based on the previous study of the streamline field triggered by singularities in a two-dimensional potential flow,the wind ficld caused by vorticity lines in an incompressible flow is deduced in this paper.The result shows an elliptic cyclonic(anticyclonic)circulation in association with a positive(negative)vorticity line.By use of the shallow-water model,the flow fields are simulated in a weak wind background under the influence of mesoscale vorticity lines.In the case of two vorticity line,one positive and the other negative,a mesoscale vortex couplet forms in the flow.When three vorticity lines are considered,three mesoscale circulations develop,and a mesohigh and two mesolows similar to the thunderstorm high,wake low and pre-squall mesolow of a mature squall line are produced.Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations show that the formation of the surface mesoscale pressure systems in squall lines may be partly attributed to the dynamical effects of the ageostrophic outflows.The strong downdrafts under the thundercloud base of the squall line lead to surface ageostrophic outflows,and produce positive-negative-positive arranged vcrtical vorticity bands(VBs)along the direction normal to the squall line,then the mesoscale circulations develop and mesoscale pressure systems form or strengthen during the geostrophic adjustment.By use of the scale separation method,this dynamic mechanism is confirmed by a case study of a severe storm passing over eastern China on 17 June 1974.     

THE GATE SQUALL LINE OF 9－10 AUGUST 1974

A tropical squall line that passed over the ship array of the Global Atmospheric Research Programme’s Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) on 9－10 August 1974 is analyzed. This squall line was similar to squall systems that passed over the GATE ship array on four other days. It began as a purely convective cloud line, then developed an associated stratiform cloud and precipitation area. The stratiform rain built up to a maxi-mum amount over a period of 8 h, then gradually diminished over a 6 h period. This stratiform rain is esti-mated to have accounted for 32% of the squall system’s total precipitation. As in other GATE squall lines, the upper-level cloud shield from which the stratiform rain fell, was advected slowly forward of the line during the system’s lifetime, the leading line of corrective clouds consisted of transient smaller-scale convective elements, which lent the line an irregular shape and pulsatory movement, and the stratiform portion of the system was characterized by the development of a mid-level mesoscale vortex similar to that seen in other GATE eases.     

一次长三角地区飑线过程的数值预报分析北大核心

2019年4月9日,长三角地区发生了一次罕见的长历时强飑线天气过程。在分析其天气形势背景和发展演变基础上,利用新一代华东区域数值模式对此次过程进行了预报分析,初步分析了其演变过程中的中尺度结构特征。结果表明,此次飑线发生在高空槽前、低层强烈辐合抬升天气背景下,强的垂直风切变、冷空气向南侵入与低层暖湿气流叠加建立了强的对流不稳定层结,是飑线发生发展和长时间维持的重要原因。数值模式成功模拟了飑线前部低层暖湿空气上升和后部中层干冷空气下沉这两支入流,以及飑线过境时边界层高度和大气可降水量迅速下降,地面中尺度冷池向东南方向的传播过程,冷池与对流风暴的移动速度基本一致,导致对流前部低层一直有风场的切变辐合抬升,有助于对流维持并发展。     

一次江淮气旋大暴雨的诊断分析和数值模拟

利用ERA Interim Daily的0.5°×0.5°资料对2011年6月9—10日的一次江淮气旋大暴雨天气过程进行天气学分析。结果表明:江淮气旋和低空急流是本次大暴雨过程的主要影响系统;高空200 hPa西风急流右侧的上升支和锋面的抬升作用提供了动力条件;低空西南急流提供了水汽条件,此次过程对流条件较好,具有较大的对流有效位能(Convective Available Potential Energy, CAPE);大气的对流不稳定性远大于斜压性,强降水发生在湿位涡正负值过渡的等值线密集带附近。过程最强降水时段由一次长生命史的中尺度飑线过程导致,利用WRF v3.9可以进行较好地模拟。研究飑线的环境条件和结构特征发现,环境大气具有较大的CAPE值和较小的对流抑制能(Convective Inhibition Energy,CIN),有利于对流的触发;较强的0~3 km垂直风切变,有利于飑线的维持;尽管冷池较浅薄,但冷池出流的抬升作用有利于对流的触发和飑线的维持。     

Characteristics of Radar Echo Parameters and Microphysical Structure Simulation of a Short-Time Heavy Precipitation Supercell

By using the conventional observations, radar data, NCEP/NCAR FNL 1o×1o reanalysis data and numerical simulation data and with the construction and calculation of radar echo parameters, this paper presents the structural characteristics and physical processes of a short-time heavy precipitation supercell that occurred in the squall line process in Shanxi Province on 24 June 2020. The results show that this squall line event occurred in front of a surface cold front, combined with infiltration of low-level cold air and continuous increase of near-surface humidity in the afternoon. The surface mesoscale convergence line and mesoscale dew point front contributed to the development and systemization of the squall line by a large degree. The short-time extremely heavy precipitation in Pingshun County was caused by the development of a supercell from thunderstorm cells on the front side of the squall line. The characteristics of sharp increase in vertical integral liquid water content, persistent increase in reflectivity factor and continuous rise in the echo top height appeared about 23 min earlier than the severe precipitation, which has qualitative indicating significance for the nowcasting of short-time heavy precipitation. A quantitative analysis of the radar echo parameters suggests that the “sudden drop”of FV40 was a precursor signal of cells’coalescence and rapid development to the mature stage. The areal change of the echo core at the 6 km height was highly subject to the merging and developing of cells, the rapid change of hydrometeor particles in clouds and the precipitation intensity. Changes in the cross-sectional area of convective cells at different heights can indirectly reflect the changes of liquid particles and ice particles in clouds, which is indicatively meaningful for predicting the coalescing and developing-to-maturing of cells and heavy precipitation 30-45 min earlier. A comprehensive echo parameter prediction model constructed by the random forest principle can predict the magnitude of short-time heavy precipitation 40-50 min in advance. Numerical simulation reveals that large amounts of water vapor existed in the near-surface atmosphere, and that the cells rapidly obtained moisture from the ambient atmosphere and developed rapidly through maternal feeding. The cold cloud zone was narrow, upright and had a high stretch height. The upward motion in clouds was strong and deep, and very rich in liquid water content. The graupel particles had a large vertical distribution range, the coexistence area of graupel and snow was large, the height of raindrops was close to the surface with a wide horizontal scale, and the precipitation efficiency was high. These may be the important elements responsible for the occurrence of the short-time heavy precipitation that exceeded historical extreme values. On the basis of the above analyses, a comprehensive parameter (CP) prediction model is worked out, which can estimate the developing trend of supercells and the intensity of short-time heavy precipitation about 1 h in advance.     

Retrieval of the microphysical properties in a CASP storm by integration of a numerical kinematic model

Abstract

A realistic kinematic model of cloud microphysical processes is presented. Heat and water substances in various phases are transported in the model by specific horizontal and vertical velocities using a semi‐Lagrangian numerical transport scheme. The model is applied to a CASP case study with horizontal and vertical velocities consistent with radiosondes and radar observations. The model is shown to capture the general observed features of the cloud and precipitation fields. In particular, it is shown that for the case studied stratiform clouds extend much higher than the top of detectable precipitation. This numerical model constitutes a useful tool for understanding the life cycle of hydrometeors as a function of their position within the storm system.     

浙江一次强飑线系统结构特征的数值研究

利用常规观测资料、自动气象站资料、NCEP再分析资料和高分辨率WRF模式,对2016年5月5日发生在浙江地区的一次强飑线过程进行模拟研究。结果表明,切变线是影响此次强飑线过程的主要天气系统,飑线发生在充沛的水汽,较弱的对流有效位能和中等强度垂直风切变大气环境下。WRF模式对此次飑线的演变过程和降水分布有较好的模拟能力。通过进一步分析模拟资料发现,雷暴高压和地面冷池是此次飑线风暴的重要边界层特征,边界层辐合线有利于飑线的发展和维持。飑线后侧对流层中层以下的强下沉气流,是造成此次雷暴大风的关键因素。     

梅雨锋中尺度切变线雨带的动力结构分析

利用密集的地面观测网资料以及中尺度数值预报模式输出产品 ,分析了 1 991年 7月 8～ 9日江淮地区梅雨锋中尺度切变线雨带的中尺度动力结构。发现沿切变线走向有一条中尺度涡管 ,位于对流层中低层 ,高度呈波状起伏。波峰处有较强经向环流 ,强降水位于波峰附近的经向垂直环流之下。降水强度与涡管强度密切相关 ,涡管增强时降水增强。涡管强度与中低空的条件性对称不稳定有关。     

“5.5”黑风暴中-β尺度飑线的初步数值模拟

利用改进型ＰＳＵ／ＮＣＡＲ中尺度模式,以常规观测资料作为初值,较好地模拟了“５．５”黑风暴过程的重要影响系统中－β尺度飑线的主要特征,即近地面风场切变线,与切变线相伴的风核、狭窄强对流带、强水平温度、气压梯度带以及上述特征带（线）的形成、迅速增强的时间和移动方向,模拟显示这是一条降水很小的“干”飑线,从全物理过程和不考虑水汽的干模式对比来看,云降水过程在本例飑线中没有起到决定性作用。飑线垂直结构的初步模拟揭示,飑线温度水平剧烈变化及垂直上升速度中心都在对流层低层的７００ｈＰａ（地形高度在８５０ｈＰａ）,垂直环流随高度向后倾斜。中低层短波扰动引起的槽后强冷平流在飑线后下沉是飑线发展的重要机制。     

Reliability of X-band Dual-polarization Phased Array Radars Through Comparison with an S-band Dual-polarization Doppler Radar

Based on the observations of a squall line on 11 May 2020 and stratiform precipitation on 6 June 2020 from two X-band dual-polarization phased array weather radars (DP-PAWRs) and an S-band dual-polarization Doppler weather radar (CINRAD/SA-D), the data reliability of DP-PAWR and its ability to detect the fine structures of mesoscale weather systems were assessed. After location matching, the observations of DP-PAWR and CINRAD / SA-D were compared in terms of reflectivity (ZH), radial velocity (V), differential reflectivity (ZDR), and specific differential phase (KDP). The results showed that: (1) DP-PAWR has better ability to detect mesoscale weather systems than CINRAD/SA-D; the multi-elevation-angles scanning of the RHI mode enables DP-PAWR to obtain a wider detection range in the vertical direction. (2) DP-PAWR’s ZH and V structures are acceptable, while its sensitivity is worse than that of CINRAD/SA-D. The ZH suffers from attenuation and the ZH area distribution is distorted around strong rainfall regions. (3) DP-PAWR’s ZDR is close to a normal distribution but slightly smaller than that of CINRAD/SA-D. The KDP products of DP-PAWR have much higher sensitivity, showing a better indication of precipitation. (4) DP-PAWR is capable of revealing a detailed and complete structure of the evolution of the whole storm and the characteristics of particle phase variations during the process of triggering and enhancement of a small cell in the front of a squall line, as well as the merging of the cell with the squall line, which cannot be observed by CINRAD/SA-D. With its fast volume scan feature and dual-polarization detection capability, DP-PAWR shows great potential in further understanding the development and evolution mechanisms of meso-γ-scale and microscale weather systems.     

The 15‐km version of the Canadian regional forecast system

Abstract

A new mesoscale version of the regional forecast system became operational at the Canadian Meteorological Centre on 18 May 2004. The main changes to the regional modelling system include an increase in both the horizontal and vertical resolutions (15‐km horizontal resolution and 58 vertical levels instead of 24‐km resolution and 28 levels) as well as major upgrades to the physics package. The latter consist of a new condensation package, with an improved formulation of the cloudy boundary layer, a new shallow convection scheme based on a Kuo‐type closure, and the Kain and Fritsch deep convection scheme, together with a subgrid‐scale orography parametrization scheme to represent gravity wave drag and low‐level blocking effects. The new forecast system also includes a few changes to the regional data assimilation such as additional radiance data from satellites.

Objective verifications using a series of cases and parallel runs, along with subjective evaluations by CMC meteorologists, indicate significantly improved performance using the new 15‐km resolution forecast system. We can conclude from these verifications that the model exhibits a marked reduction in errors, improved predictability by about 12 hours, better forecasts of precipitation, a significant reduction in the spin‐up time, and a different implicit‐explicit partitioning of precipitation. A number of other features include: sharper precipitation patterns, better representation of trace precipitation, and general improvements of deepening lows and hurricanes. In mountainous regions, several aspects are better represented due to combined higher‐resolution orography and the low‐level blocking term.     

一次飑线过程的雷达回波分析与数值模拟

2003年4月12日, 一条飑线袭击了江西、福建、浙江三省, 所到之处出现冰雹、大风等强烈天气, 这次过程强度强, 影响范围大, 三省交界及附近区域有二十多个测站出现冰雹、大风, 冰雹直径有的达3 cm以上, 最大风速达32 m/s。该文利用建阳新一代天气雷达探测到的回波以及中尺度非静力数值模式 (MM5) 对这次过程进行数值模拟, 分析此次强对流过程。结果表明:雷达回波显示出飑线的带状强回波, 线状回波上呈现波型特征; 在数值模拟结果中看到在系统发生的带状区域内有多个中尺度涡旋存在, 在飑线内有中尺度涡旋簇和弓形回波。