Numerical prediction of an intense convective system associated with the July 1987 montreal flood. part I: Gravity waves and the squall line

Abstract

In this study, a 24‐h high‐resolution numerical prediction of a prefrontal squall line associated with the 14 July 1987 Montreal flood is employed to investigate the origin and role of mesoscale gravity waves in the development of the squall system. The 24‐h integration using an improved mesoscale version of the Canadian regional finite‐element model is first validated against available observations; then non‐observable features are diagnosed to reveal the relationship between deep convection and gravity wave events. It is shown that the model reproduces well many aspects of the squall line, such as the propagation and organization of the convective system, as well as its associated precipitation. It is found that gravity waves are first excited near Lake Erie, following the initiation of early convective activity. Then, these waves propagate eastward and northeastward at speeds of 20 and 35 m s^‐1, respectively. As the waves propagate downstream, deep convection radiates rapidly behind the wave trough axis, forming a long line of squall convection. Because the squall line moves with the gravity waves in a “phase‐locked” manner, deep convection has a significant influence on the structure and amplitude of the gravity waves. The sensitivity of the wave‐squall prediction to various parameters in convective parameterization is also examined.