海洋对人为CO2吸收的三维模式研究

文中用包含海洋化学过程和一个简单生物过程的三维碳循环模式模拟了海洋对大气CO₂的吸收,并分析了碳吸收的纬度分布。模拟工业革命以来海洋对大气CO₂的吸收表明:海洋碳吸收再加上大气CO₂的增加只占由化石燃料燃烧、森林砍伐和土地利用的变化而释放到大气中的CO₂的2/3。1980～1989年期间海洋年平均吸收2.05GtC。海洋人为CO₂的吸收有明显的纬度特征。模式计算的海洋CO₂的吸收在总量与纬度分布上与观测结果比较相符。     

Anthropogenic heat in the city of S?o Paulo, Brazil

The main goal of this work is to describe the anthropogenic energy flux (Q _F) in the city of S?o Paulo, Brazil. The hourly, monthly, and annual values of the anthropogenic energy flux are estimated using the inventory method, and the contributions of vehicular, stationary, and human metabolism sources from 2004 to 2007 are considered. The vehicular and stationary sources are evaluated using the primary consumption of energy based on fossil fuel, bio fuel, and electricity usage by the population. The diurnal evolution of the anthropogenic energy flux shows three relative maxima, with the largest maxima occurring early in the morning (??19.9 Wm^?2) and in the late afternoon (??20.3 Wm^?2). The relative maximum that occurs around noontime (??19.6 Wm^?2) reflects the diurnal pattern of vehicle traffic that seems to be specific to S?o Paulo. With respect to diurnal evolution, the energy flux released by vehicular sources (Q _FV) contributes approximately 50% of the total anthropogenic energy flux. Stationary sources (Q _FS) and human metabolism (Q _FM) represent about 41% and 9% of the anthropogenic energy flux, respectively. For 2007, the monthly values of Q _FV, Q _FS, Q _FM, and Q _F are, respectively, 16.8?±?0.25, 14.3?±?0.16, 3.5?±?0.03, and 34.6?±?0.41?MJ?m^?2?month^?1. The seasonal evolution monthly values of Q _FV, Q _FS, Q _FM, and Q _F show a relative minimum during the summer and winter vacations and a systematic and progressive increase associated with the seasonal evolution of the economic activity in S?o Paulo. The annual evolution of Q _F indicates that the city of S?o Paulo released 355.2?MJ?m^?2?year^?1 in 2004 and 415.5?MJ?m^?2?year^?1 in 2007 in association with an annual rate of increase of 19.6?MJ?m^?2?year^?1 (from 2004 to 2006) and 30.5?MJ?m^?2?year^?1 (from 2006 to 2007). The anthropogenic energy flux corresponds to about 9% of the net radiation at the surface in the summer and 15% in the winter. The amplitude of seasonal variation of the maximum hourly value of the diurnal variation increases exponentially with latitude.     

A SIMULATION OF CO2 UPTAKE IN A THREE DIMENSIONAL OCEAN CARBON CYCLE MODEL*

A three-dimensional ocean carbon cycle model which is a general circulation model coupled with simple biogeochemical processes is used to simulate CO₂ uptake by the ocean.The OGCM used is a modified version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory modular ocean model(MOM2).The ocean chemistry and a simple ocean biota model are included.Principal variablesare total CO₂,alkalinity and phosphate.The vertical profile of POC flux observed by sediment traps is adopted,the rain ratio,a ratio of production rate of calcite against that of POC,and the bio-production efficiency should be 0.06 and 2 per year,separately.The uptake of anthropogenic CO₂ by the ocean is studied.Calculated oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO₂ during the 1980s is 2.05×10¹⁵g(Pg)per year.The regional distributions of global oceanic CO₂ are discussed.     

Natural reduction of CO2 observed in the pre-monsoon period at the coastal station, Goa

Measurements of carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration were made at a coastal land station, Goa, on the west coast of India from March to June 2003 as part of the ARMEX (ARabian sea Monsoon Experiment) campaign. The observations show a systematic reduction (~120?mg?m^?3) of CO₂ concentration during the pre-monsoon months, March–May, during which no significant change in anthropogenic emissions takes place. CO₂ shoots up from 520 to 635?mg?m^?3 in June with the onset of the South West monsoon. Back trajectories show that the source of air mass gradually shifts from the coastal land mass to the open southern Arabian Sea during the pre-monsoon period. The observed reduction in CO₂ is explained in terms of earlier measurements in the Arabian Sea indicating maximum chlorophyll a (Sarupria and Bhargava in J Mar Sci 27:292–297, 1998) and minimum partial pressure of CO₂ (Sarma in J Geophys Res 108:3225, 2003) in the sea waters off the west coast of India during the pre-monsoon period, cleaner marine air mass advection from the open sea, and negligible local vertical CO₂ flux.     

Trace gases and PM2.5-bound metal abundance over a tropical urban environment,South India

Pre and Post-Monsoon levels of ambient SO₂, NO₂, PM_2.5 and the trace metals Fe, Cu, etc. were measured at industrial and residential regions of the Kochi urban area in South India for a period of two years. The mean PM_2.5, SO₂ and NO₂ concentrations across all sites were 38.98?±?1.38 µg/m³, 2.78?±?0.85 µg/m³ and 11.90?±?4.68 µg/m³ respectively, which is lower than many other Indian cities. There was little difference in any on the measured species between the seasons. A few sites exceeded the NAAQS (define acronym and state standard) and most of the sites exceeded WHO (define acronym and state standard) standard for PM_2.5. The average trace metal concentrations (ng/m³) were found to be Fe (32.58)?>?Zn (31.93)?>?Ni (10.13)?>?Cr (5.48)?>?Pb (5.37)?>?Cu (3.24). The maximum concentration of trace metals except Pb were reported in industrial areas. The enrichment factor, of metals relative to crustal material, indicated anthropogenic dominance over natural sources for the trace metal concentration in Kochi’s atmosphere. This work demonstrates the importance of air quality monitoring in this area.

     

Size distributions and dry deposition fluxes of water-soluble inorganic nitrogen in atmospheric aerosols in Xiamen Bay,China

Size-segregated aerosol particles were collected using a high volume MOUDI sampler at a coastal urban site in Xiamen Bay, China, from March 2018 to June 2020 to examine the seasonal characteristics of aerosol and water-soluble inorganic ions (WSIIs) and the dry deposition of nitrogen species. During the study period, the annual average concentrations of PM₁, PM_2.5, PM₁₀, and TSP were 14.8?±?5.6, 21.1?±?9.0, 35.4?±?14.2 μg m^?3, and 45.2?±?21.3 μg m^?3, respectively. The seasonal variations of aerosol concentrations were impacted by the monsoon with the lowest value in summer and the higher values in other seasons. For WSIIs, the annual average concentrations were 6.3?±?3.3, 2.1?±?1.2, 3.3?±?1.5, and 1.6?±?0.8 μg m^?3 in PM₁, PM_1-2.5, PM_2.5–10, and PM_>10, respectively. In addition, pronounced seasonal variations of WSIIs in PM₁ and PM_1-2.5 were observed, with the highest concentration in spring-winter and the lowest in summer. The size distribution showed that SO₄^2?, NH₄⁺ and K⁺ were consistently present in the submicron particles while Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Na⁺ and Cl^? mainly accumulated in the size range of 2.5–10 μm, reflecting their different dominant sources. In spring, fall and winter, a bimodal distribution of NO₃^? was observed with one peak at 2.5–10 μm and another peak at 0.44–1 μm. In summer, however, the fine mode peak disappeared, likely due to the unfavorable conditions for the formation of NH₄NO₃. For NH₄⁺ and SO₄^2?, their dominant peak at 0.25–0.44 μm in summer and fall shifted to 0.44–1 μm in spring and winter. Although the concentration of NO₃–N was lower than NH₄–N, the dry deposition flux of NO₃–N (35.77?±?24.49 μmol N m^?2 d^?1) was much higher than that of NH₄–N (10.95?±?11.89 μmol N m^?2 d^?1), mainly due to the larger deposition velocities of NO₃–N. The contribution of sea-salt particles to the total particulate inorganic N deposition was estimated to be 23.9—52.8%. Dry deposition of particulate inorganic N accounted for 0.95% of other terrestrial N influxes. The annual total N deposition can create a new productivity of 3.55 mgC m^?2 d^?1, accounting for 1.3–4.7% of the primary productivity in Xiamen Bay. In light of these results, atmospheric N deposition could have a significant influence on biogeochemistry cycle of nutrients with respect to projected increase of anthropogenic emissions from mobile sources in coastal region.

     

Decadal Trends in Oxygen Concentration in Subsurface Waters of the Northeast Pacific Ocean

Previous studies have shown decreasing oxygen concentration (O₂) in subsurface waters of the continental slope from California to Canada since about 1980. With longer time series we show that from southern California to northern Canada increasing O₂ preceded these decreases from 1950 to about 1980. Because there has been no clear trend since 1950, we cannot yet conclude that anthropogenic climate change is the cause of these decreasing trends after 1980. These findings are based mainly on O₂ on the 26.7 potential density (σ_θ) surface in the region north of 30°N and east of 170°W, covering both the continental margin and deep-sea regions. On the continental slope, O₂ increased at most locations by 10 to 20?µmol?kg^?1 to about 1980, followed by declines of similar magnitude in recent years. Changes in O₂ were associated with changes in temperature of the opposite sign south of 37°N, but correlation of temperature and O₂ is irregular in more northerly locations. At all locations, temperature-related solubility change was a minor cause of these O₂ trends. In deep-sea waters, O₂ decreased with time with a more rapid decrease from about 1995 to about 2003. At Ocean Station P (OSP; 50°N, 145°W), which has the longest uninterrupted record of observations, significant linear trends of ?0.4 to ?0.5?µmol?kg^?1?y^?1 were found on the 26.5, 26.7, and 26.9 σ_θ surfaces. In addition, a significant sinusoidal oscillation of period 18.61 years and amplitude of 18?µmol?kg^?1 was found on the 26.9 σ_θ surface at OSP and a station 400?km to the east, which fits reasonably well with the lunar nodal cycle. The phase of this oscillation was identical at both locations. Clear evidence of similar variability did not emerge at other open-ocean locations or along the continental slope.     

Study of variation of aerosol optical properties over a high altitude station in Indian Western Himalayan region,palampur using raman lidar system

A Raman lidar system was operated along with the Microtops sunphotometer measurements to carry out the study of the variation of the optical properties of aerosols over Palampur (32.11° N and 76.53° E), India from 17th April to 11th May 2019. The lidar system is furnished with Raman (N₂) channel and depolarization channel allowing independent measurement of Lidar Ratio (LR) and linear depolarization ratio. The study reveals that the majority of the aerosols approximately were restricted within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and very less loading was present in the free troposphere over the study location. The particle loading over the study period was found to be very less with aerosol backscatter coefficient (at 355 nm) ranging from ～0.13 Mm^?1sr^?1 to ～7.25 Mm^?1sr^?1 with mean value of 2.67?±?0.82 Mm^?1sr^?1 and it is well supplemented by the mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) of 0.37?±?0.13 obtained from Microtops Sunphotometer. The average lidar ratio values for 0-1 km altitude (L1) 72?±?13sr, for 1-2 km (L2) altitude 55?±?8sr, for 2-3 km (L3) 54?±?15sr were observed as suggesting dominance of the biomass burning aerosols and anthropogenic aerosols. The particle depolarization ratio (355 nm) values were found from approximately 4.8?±?2.7% to 11.5?±?1.9% with the mean value of 7?±?1.3% suggesting the presence of non-spherical particles. To trace the sources of the pollution, we derived the HYSPLIT trajectory which shows the majority of the movement was from local sources.

     

Study on water-soluble ionic composition of PM10 and related trace gases over Bay of Bengal during W_ICARB campaign

Aerosol (PM₁₀) samples were collected and its precursor gases, i.e., NH₃, NO, NO₂, and SO₂ measured over Bay of Bengal (BoB) during winter months of December 2008 to January 2009 to understand the relationship between particular matter (PM) and precursor gases. The observations were done under the winter phase of Integrated Campaign on Aerosols, gases and Radiation Budget (W_ICARB). The distribution of water-soluble inorganic ionic composition (WSIC) and its interaction with precursor gases over BoB are reported in present case. Average atmospheric concentration of NH₃, NO, NO_2, and SO₂ were recorded as 4.78?±?1.68, 1.89?±?1.26, 0.31?±?0.14, and 0.80?±?0.30?μg?m^?3, whereas WSIC component of PM₁₀, i.e., NH₄ ⁺, SO₄ ^2?, NO₃ ^?, and Cl^? were recorded as 1.96?±?1.66, 8.68?±?3.75, 1.92?±?1.75, and 2.48?±?0.78?μg?m^?3, respectively. In the present case, abundance of nss-SO₄ ^2? in the particulate matter is recorded as 18?%. It suggests the possibility of long-range transport as well as marine biogenic origin. Higher SO₄ ^2?/(SO₂?+?SO₄ ^2?) equivalent molar ratio during the campaign indicates the gas-to-particle conversion with great efficiency over the study region.     

Estimation of Nocturnal Area Fluxes of Carbon Cycle Gases in Saint Petersburg Suburbs

Carbon dioxide, methane, and carbon monoxide are the carbon cycle gases, the data on their emissions are needed when monitoring air pollution and developing methods for reducing anthropogenic emissions to the atmosphere and for climate forecasting. The estimates of nocturnal area fluxes for CO₂, CH₄, and CO presented for a suburb of Saint Petersburg (Peterhof) are obtained using the box model and continuous observations of concentration of these gases. The mean values of CH₄, CO₂, and CO fluxes estimated for Peterhof for 2014–2015 are 44 ± 27, 6100 ± 4000, and 90 ± 100 t/(km² year), respectively. The intensity of the CO area flux has pronounced seasonal variations characterized by the maximum of ~(160 ± 120) t/(km² year) in November—February and by the minimum of ~(30 ± 20) t/(km² year) in June-July. The analysis of the ratio of CO/CO₂ fluxes identified the main types of anthropogenic sources typical of Peterhof: motor transport, natural gas combustion, and the use of wood stoves for the heating of private low-rise buildings (in the cold season).     

The assessment of aerosol optical properties over Mohal in the northwestern Indian Himalayas using satellite and ground-based measurements and an influence of aerosol transport on aerosol radiative forcing

The present study deals with the aerosol optical properties which are assessed during the period 2007 to 2009 over Mohal (31.9oN, 77.12oE) in the northwestern Indian Himalaya, using ground-based measurements and multi-satellite data. The daily average value of aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 500?nm, ?ngstr?m exponent and turbidity coefficient are 0.24?±?0.08, 1.02?±?0.34 and 0.13?±?0.05, respectively. The comparative study of satellite and ground-based measurements reveals that the percentage retrieval for daily AOD at 550?nm over Mohal within the expected accuracy (???? _p?? ?=?±0.05?±?0.15?? _p?? ) is around 87%, with a significant correlation coefficient of 0.76. The present study suggests that the retrieval of AOD through satellite data is able to characterise the distribution of AOD over Mohal. However, further efforts are needed in order to eliminate systematic errors in the existing Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) algorithm. The transport of desert dust and anthropogenic aerosol during high aerosol loading days caused a significant reduction in surface-reaching solar radiation by 149 and 117%, respectively. This large reduction in surface-reaching solar radiation increased the atmospheric heating rate by 0.93 and 0.72?K?day^?1, respectively. This study indicates significant climatic implications due to the transport of aerosols in the northwestern Indian Himalaya.     

Atmospheric ionic species in PM2.5 and PM1 aerosols in the ambient air of eastern central India

This study elucidates the characteristics of ambient PM_2.5 (fine) and PM₁ (submicron) samples collected between July 2009 and June 2010 in Raipur, India, in terms of water soluble ions, i.e. Na⁺, NH ₄ ⁺ , K⁺, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺, Cl^?, NO ₃ ^? and SO ₄ ^2? . The total number of PM_2.5 and PM₁ samples collected with eight stage cascade impactor was 120. Annual mean concentrations of PM_2.5 and PM₁ were 150.9?±?78.6 μg/m³ and 72.5?±?39.0 μg/m³, respectively. The higher particulate matter (PM) mass concentrations during the winter season are essentially due to the increase of biomass burning and temperature inversion. Out of above 8 ions, the most abundant ions were SO ₄ ^2? , NO ₃ ^? and NH ₄ ⁺ for both PM_2.5 and PM₁ aerosols; their average concentrations were 7.86?±?5.86 μg/m³, 3.12?±?2.63 μg/m³ and 1.94?±?1.28 μg/m³ for PM_2.5, and 5.61?±?3.79 μg/m³, 1.81?±?1.21 μg/m³ and 1.26?±?0.88 μg/m³ for PM₁, respectively. The major secondary species SO ₄ ^2? , NO ₃ ^? and NH ₄ ⁺ accounted for 5.81%, 1.88% and 1.40% of the total mass of PM_2.5 and 11.10%, 2.68%, and 2.48% of the total mass of PM₁, respectively. The source identification was conducted for the ionic species in PM_2.5 and PM₁ aerosols. The results are discussed by the way of correlations and principal component analysis. Spearman correlation indicated that Cl^? and K⁺ in PM_2.5 and PM₁ can be originated from similar type of sources. Principal component analysis reveals that there are two major sources (anthropogenic and natural such as soil derived particles) for PM_2.5 and PM₁ fractions.     

Measurements of CO,HCN, and C2H6 Total Columns in Smoke Plumes Transported from the 2010 Russian Boreal Forest Fires to the Canadian High Arctic

In August 2010, simultaneous enhancements of aerosol optical depth and total columns of carbon monoxide (CO), hydrogen cyanide (HCN), and ethane (C₂H₆) were observed at the Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL, 80.05°N, ?86.42°W, 0.61 km above sea level, Eureka, Nunavut, Canada). Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) hot spots, Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aerosol index maps, and Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) back-trajectories were used to attribute these enhancements to an intense boreal fire event occurring in Russia. A ground-based Fourier Transform InfraRed (FTIR) spectrometer at PEARL provided vertically integrated measurements of trace gases transported in smoke plumes. We derived HCN and C₂H₆ equivalent emission ratios with respect to CO of 0.0054?±?0.0022 and 0.0108?±?0.0036, respectively, and converted them into equivalent emission factors of 0.66?±?0.27 g kg^?1 and 1.47?±?0.50 g kg^?1 (in grams of gas per kilogram of dry biomass burnt, with one-sigma uncertainties). These emission factors add new observations to the relatively sparse datasets available and can be used to improve the simulation of biomass burning fire emissions in chemical transport models. These emission factors for the boreal forest are in agreement with the mean values recently reported in a compilation study.     

Uptake and Storage of Anthropogenic CO2 in the Pacific Ocean Estimated Using Two Modeling Approaches

A basin-wide ocean general circulation model(OGCM) of the Pacific Ocean is employed to estimate the uptake and storage of anthropogenic CO 2 using two different simulation approaches.The simulation(named BIO) makes use of a carbon model with biological processes and full thermodynamic equations to calculate surface water partial pressure of CO 2,whereas the other simulation(named PTB) makes use of a perturbation approach to calculate surface water partial pressure of anthropogenic CO 2.The results from the two simulations agree well with the estimates based on observation data in most important aspects of the vertical distribution as well as the total inventory of anthropogenic carbon.The storage of anthropogenic carbon from BIO is closer to the observation-based estimate than that from PTB.The Revelle factor in 1994 obtained in BIO is generally larger than that obtained in PTB in the whole Pacific,except for the subtropical South Pacific.This,to large extent,leads to the difference in the surface anthropogenic CO 2 concentration between the two runs.The relative difference in the annual uptake between the two runs is almost constant during the integration processes after 1850.This is probably not caused by dissolved inorganic carbon(DIC),but rather by a factor independent of time.In both runs,the rate of change in anthropogenic CO 2 fluxes with time is consistent with the rate of change in the growth rate of atmospheric partial pressure of CO 2.     

Non-energy use of fossil fuels and resulting carbon dioxide emissions: bottom–up estimates for the world as a whole and for major developing countries

We present and apply a simple bottom–up model for estimating non-energy use of fossil fuels and resulting CO₂ (carbon dioxide) emissions. We apply this model for the year 2000: (1) to the world as a whole, (2) to the aggregate of Annex I countries and non-Annex I countries, and (3) to the ten non-Annex I countries with the highest consumption of fossil fuels for non-energy purposes. We find that worldwide non-energy use is equivalent to 1,670 ± 120 Mt (megatonnes) CO₂ and leads to 700 ± 90 Mt CO₂ emissions. Around 75% of non-energy use emissions is related to industrial processes. The remainder is attributed to the emission source categories of solvent and other product use, agriculture, and waste. Annex I countries account for 51% (360 ± 50 Mt CO₂) and non-Annex I countries for 49% (340 ± 70 Mt CO₂) of worldwide non-energy use emissions. Among non-Annex I countries, China is by far the largest emitter of non-energy use emissions (122 ± 18 Mt CO₂). Our research deepens the understanding of non-energy use and related CO₂ emissions in countries for which detailed emission inventories do not yet exist. Despite existing model uncertainties, we recommend NEAT-SIMP to inventory experts for preparing correct and complete non-energy use emission estimates for any country in the world.     

Nitrous oxide emissions from gasohol, ethanol and CNG light duty vehicles

A sample of 21 light duty vehicles powered by Otto cycle engines were tested on a chassis dynamometer to measure the exhaust emissions of nitrous oxide (N₂O). The tests were performed at the Vehicle Emission Laboratory of CETESB (Environmental Company of the State of Sao Paulo) using the US-FTP-75 (Federal Test Procedure) driving cycle. The sample tested included passenger cars running on three types of fuels used in Brazil: gasohol, ethanol and CNG. The measurement of N₂O was made using two methods: Non Dispersive InfraRed (NDIR) analyzer and Fourier Transform InfraRed spectroscopy (FTIR). Measurements of regulated pollutants were also made in order to establish correlations between N₂O and NO_x. The average N₂O emission factors obtained by the NDIR method was 78?±?41?mg.km^?1 for vehicles running with gasohol, 73?±?45?mg.km^?1 for ethanol vehicles and 171?±?69?mg.km^?1 for CNG vehicles. Seventeen results using the FTIR method were also obtained. For gasohol vehicles the results showed a good agreement between the two methods, with an average emission factor of 68?±?41?mg.km^?1. The FTIR measurement results of N₂O for ethanol and CNG vehicles were much lower than those obtained by the NDIR method. The emission factors were 17?±?10?mg.km^?1 and 33?±?17?mg.km^?1, respectively, possibly because of the interference of water vapor (present at a higher concentration in the exhaust gases of these vehicles) on measurements by the NDIR method.     

Estimates of anthropogenic CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> uptake in a global ocean model

A global ocean general circulation model (L30T63) is employed to study the uptake and distribution of anthropogenic CO₂ in the ocean. A subgrid-scale mixing scheme called GM90 is used in the model. There are two main GM90 parameters including isopycnal diffusivity and skew (thickness) diffusivity. Sensitivities of the ocean circulation and the redistribution of dissolved anthropogenic CO₂ to these two parameters are examined. Two runs estimate the global oceanic anthropogenic CO₂ uptake to be 1.64 and 1.73 Pg C yr^-1 for the 1990s, and that the global ocean contained 86.8 and 92.7 Pg C of anthropogenic CO₂ at the end of 1994, respectively. Both the total inventory and uptake from our model are smaller than the data-based estimates. In this presentation, the vertical distributions of anthropogenic CO₂ at three meridional sections are discussed and compared with the available data-based estimates. The inventory in the individual basins is also calculated. Use of large isopycnal diffusivity can generally improve the simulated results, including the exchange flux, the vertical distribution patterns, inventory, storage, etc. In terms of comparison of the vertical distributions and column inventory, we find that the total inventory in the Pacific Ocean obtained from our model is in good agreement with the data-based estimate, but a large difference exists in the Atlantic Ocean, particularly in the South Atlantic. The main reasons are weak vertical mixing and that our model generates small exchange fluxes of anthropogenic CO₂ in the Southern Ocean. Improvement in the simulation of the vertical transport and sea ice in the Southern Ocean is important in future work.     

A fractal climate response function can simulate global average temperature trends of the modern era and the past millennium

A climate response function is introduced that consists of six exponential (low-pass) filters with weights depending as a power law on their e-folding times. The response of this two-parameter function to the combined forcings of solar irradiance, greenhouse gases, and SO₂-related aerosols is fitted simultaneously to reconstructed temperatures of the past millennium, the response to solar cycles, the response to the 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruption, and the modern 1850–2010 temperature trend. Assuming strong long-term modulation of solar irradiance, the quite adequate fit produces a climate response function with a millennium-scale response to doubled CO₂ concentration of 2.0 ± 0.3 °C (mean ± standard error), of which about 50 % is realized with e-folding times of 0.5 and 2 years, about 30 % with e-folding times of 8 and 32 years, and about 20 % with e-folding times of 128 and 512 years. The transient climate response (response after 70 years of 1 % yearly rise of CO₂ concentration) is 1.5 ± 0.2 °C. The temperature rise from 1820 to 1950 can be attributed for about 70 % to increased solar irradiance, while the temperature changes after 1950 are almost completely produced by the interplay of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols. The SO₂-related forcing produces a small temperature drop in the years 1950–1970 and an inflection of the temperature curve around the year 2000. Fitting with a tenfold smaller modulation of solar irradiance produces a less adequate fit with millennium-scale and transient climate responses of 2.5 ± 0.4 and 1.9 ± 0.3 °C, respectively.     

Climate change mitigation: trade-offs between delay and strength of action required

Climate change mitigation via a reduction in the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) is the principle requirement for reducing global warming, its impacts, and the degree of adaptation required. We present a simple conceptual model of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions to highlight the trade off between delay in commencing mitigation, and the strength of mitigation then required to meet specific atmospheric CO₂ stabilization targets. We calculate the effects of alternative emission profiles on atmospheric CO₂ and global temperature change over a millennial timescale using a simple coupled carbon cycle-climate model. For example, if it takes 50 years to transform the energy sector and the maximum rate at which emissions can be reduced is ?2.5% $\text{year}^{-1}$ , delaying action until 2020 would lead to stabilization at 540 ppm. A further 20 year delay would result in a stabilization level of 730 ppm, and a delay until 2060 would mean stabilising at over 1,000 ppm. If stabilization targets are met through delayed action, combined with strong rates of mitigation, the emissions profiles result in transient peaks of atmospheric CO₂ (and potentially temperature) that exceed the stabilization targets. Stabilization at 450 ppm requires maximum mitigation rates of ?3% to ?5% $\text{year}^{-1}$ , and when delay exceeds 2020, transient peaks in excess of 550 ppm occur. Consequently tipping points for certain Earth system components may be transgressed. Avoiding dangerous climate change is more easily achievable if global mitigation action commences as soon as possible. Starting mitigation earlier is also more effective than acting more aggressively once mitigation has begun.     

Impact of intensive fish farming on methane emission in a tropical hydropower reservoir

Fisheries and aquaculture are important sources of food for hundreds of millions of people around the world. World fish production is projected to increase by 15% in the next 10 years, reaching around 200 million tonnes per year. The main driver of this increase will be based on fish farming management in developing countries. In Brazil, fish farming is increasing due to the climate conditions and large supply of water resources, with the production system based on Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) farming in reservoirs. Inland waters like reservoirs are a natural source of methane (CH₄) to the atmosphere. However, knowledge of the impact from intensive fish production in net cages on CH₄ fluxes is not well known. This paper presents in situ measurements of CH₄ fluxes and dissolved CH₄ (DM) in the Furnas Hydroelectric Reservoir in order to evaluate the impact of fish farming on methane emissions. Measurements were taken in a control area without fish production and three areas with fish farming. The overall mean of diffusive methane flux (DMF) (5.9?±?4.5 mg CH₄ m^?2 day^?1) was significantly lower when compared to the overall mean of bubble methane flux (BMF) (552.9?±?1003.9 mg CH₄ m^?2 day^?1). The DMF and DM were significantly higher in the two areas with fish farming, whereas the BMF was not significantly different. The DMF and DM were correlated to depth and chlorophyll-a. However, the low production of BMF did not allow the comparison with the limnological parameters measured. This case study shows that CH₄ emissions are influenced more by reservoir characteristics than fish production. Further investigation is necessary to assess the impact of fish farming on the greenhouse gas emissions.