Estimates of anthropogenic CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> uptake in a global ocean model

A global ocean general circulation model (L30T63) is employed to study the uptake and distribution of anthropogenic CO₂ in the ocean. A subgrid-scale mixing scheme called GM90 is used in the model. There are two main GM90 parameters including isopycnal diffusivity and skew (thickness) diffusivity. Sensitivities of the ocean circulation and the redistribution of dissolved anthropogenic CO₂ to these two parameters are examined. Two runs estimate the global oceanic anthropogenic CO₂ uptake to be 1.64 and 1.73 Pg C yr^-1 for the 1990s, and that the global ocean contained 86.8 and 92.7 Pg C of anthropogenic CO₂ at the end of 1994, respectively. Both the total inventory and uptake from our model are smaller than the data-based estimates. In this presentation, the vertical distributions of anthropogenic CO₂ at three meridional sections are discussed and compared with the available data-based estimates. The inventory in the individual basins is also calculated. Use of large isopycnal diffusivity can generally improve the simulated results, including the exchange flux, the vertical distribution patterns, inventory, storage, etc. In terms of comparison of the vertical distributions and column inventory, we find that the total inventory in the Pacific Ocean obtained from our model is in good agreement with the data-based estimate, but a large difference exists in the Atlantic Ocean, particularly in the South Atlantic. The main reasons are weak vertical mixing and that our model generates small exchange fluxes of anthropogenic CO₂ in the Southern Ocean. Improvement in the simulation of the vertical transport and sea ice in the Southern Ocean is important in future work.     

Factors influencing anthropogenic carbon dioxide uptake in the North Atlantic in models of the ocean carbon cycle

The uptake and storage of anthropogenic carbon in the North Atlantic is investigated using different configurations of ocean general circulation/carbon cycle models. We investigate how different representations of the ocean physics in the models, which represent the range of models currently in use, affect the evolution of CO₂ uptake in the North Atlantic. The buffer effect of the ocean carbon system would be expected to reduce ocean CO₂ uptake as the ocean absorbs increasing amounts of CO₂. We find that the strength of the buffer effect is very dependent on the model ocean state, as it affects both the magnitude and timing of the changes in uptake. The timescale over which uptake of CO₂ in the North Atlantic drops to below preindustrial levels is particularly sensitive to the ocean state which sets the degree of buffering; it is less sensitive to the choice of atmospheric CO₂ forcing scenario. Neglecting physical climate change effects, North Atlantic CO₂ uptake drops below preindustrial levels between 50 and 300 years after stabilisation of atmospheric CO₂ in different model configurations. Storage of anthropogenic carbon in the North Atlantic varies much less among the different model configurations, as differences in ocean transport of dissolved inorganic carbon and uptake of CO₂ compensate each other. This supports the idea that measured inventories of anthropogenic carbon in the real ocean cannot be used to constrain the surface uptake. Including physical climate change effects reduces anthropogenic CO₂ uptake and storage in the North Atlantic further, due to the combined effects of surface warming, increased freshwater input, and a slowdown of the meridional overturning circulation. The timescale over which North Atlantic CO₂ uptake drops to below preindustrial levels is reduced by about one-third, leading to an estimate of this timescale for the real world of about 50 years after the stabilisation of atmospheric CO₂. In the climate change experiment, a shallowing of the mixed layer depths in the North Atlantic results in a significant reduction in primary production, reducing the potential role for biology in drawing down anthropogenic CO₂.     

热带太平洋表面水中CO2对El Niño事件响应的数值模拟

文中用一个带生物泵的三维全球海洋碳循环模式模拟了热带太平洋表面水中CO2总量(TCO2)在ElNi     

Ocean dynamics determine the response of oceanic CO2 uptake to climate change

The increase of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations due to anthropogenic activities is substantially damped by the ocean, whose CO₂ uptake is determined by the state of the ocean, which in turn is influenced by climate change. We investigate the mechanisms of the ocean’s carbon uptake within the feedback loop of atmospheric CO₂ concentration, climate change and atmosphere/ocean CO₂ flux. We evaluate two transient simulations from 1860 until 2100, performed with a version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) with the carbon cycle included. In both experiments observed anthropogenic CO₂ emissions were prescribed until 2000, followed by the emissions according to the IPCC Scenario A2. In one simulation the radiative forcing of changing atmospheric CO₂ is taken into account (coupled), in the other it is suppressed (uncoupled). In both simulations, the oceanic carbon uptake increases from 1 GT C/year in 1960 to 4.5 GT C/year in 2070. Afterwards, this trend weakens in the coupled simulation, leading to a reduced uptake rate of 10% in 2100 compared to the uncoupled simulation. This includes a partial offset due to higher atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in the coupled simulation owing to reduced carbon uptake by the terrestrial biosphere. The difference of the oceanic carbon uptake between both simulations is primarily due to partial pressure difference and secondary to solubility changes. These contributions are widely offset by changes of gas transfer velocity due to sea ice melting and wind changes. The major differences appear in the Southern Ocean (?45%) and in the North Atlantic (?30%), related to reduced vertical mixing and North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, respectively. In the polar areas, sea ice melting induces additional CO₂ uptake (+20%).     

Acidification of Lower St. Lawrence Estuary Bottom Waters

Accumulation of metabolic CO₂ can acidify marine waters above and beyond the ongoing acidification of the ocean by anthropogenic CO₂. The impact of respiration on carbonate chemistry and pH is most acute in hypoxic and anoxic basins, where metabolic CO₂ accumulates to high concentrations. The bottom waters of the Lower St. Lawrence Estuary (LSLE), where persistently severe hypoxia has developed over the last 80 years, is one such case. We have reconstructed the evolution of pH in the bottom waters from historical and recent data, and from first principles relating the stoichiometry of CO₂ produced to oxygen consumed during microbial degradation of organic matter. Based on the value of the atmospheric partial pressure of CO₂ that best reproduces the preformed dissolved inorganic carbon concentration in the bottom waters, we estimate the average ventilation age of the bottom waters to be 16?±?3 years. The pH of the bottom waters has decreased by 0.2 to 0.3 over the last 75 years, which is four to six times greater than can be attributed to the uptake of anthropogenic CO₂. The pH decrease is accompanied by a decline in the saturation state with respect to both calcite and aragonite. As of 2007, bottom waters in the LSLE are slightly supersaturated with respect to calcite (Ω_c?≈?1.06?±?0.04) but are strongly undersaturated with respect to aragonite (Ω_a?≈?0.67?±?0.03).

     

海洋对人为CO2吸收的三维模式研究

文中用包含海洋化学过程和一个简单生物过程的三维碳循环模式模拟了海洋对大气CO₂的吸收,并分析了碳吸收的纬度分布。模拟工业革命以来海洋对大气CO₂的吸收表明:海洋碳吸收再加上大气CO₂的增加只占由化石燃料燃烧、森林砍伐和土地利用的变化而释放到大气中的CO₂的2/3。1980～1989年期间海洋年平均吸收2.05GtC。海洋人为CO₂的吸收有明显的纬度特征。模式计算的海洋CO₂的吸收在总量与纬度分布上与观测结果比较相符。     

太平洋海气CO2通量对气候事件的响应

应用一个嵌套了海洋生物地球化学循环的太平洋环流碳循环模式,分析了1960～2000年太平洋不同海区海气碳通量随时间的变化。模拟结果显示,赤道太平洋为大气CO₂的排放区,南、北太平洋(南、北纬15°至模式计算区域南、北边界)为吸收区。3个海区海气碳通量随时间均存在显著的波动,其中赤道太平洋海气碳通量年际波动最显著。3个海区海气碳通量年际波动对气候事件的响应并不一致,在El Niño年赤道太平洋冷舌的强度和总溶解无机碳(DIC)的浓度以及输出生产力均会受到上升流减弱的影响而降低,La Niña年这些海气碳通量控制要素的分布情况则正好相反,但在南北太平洋副热带以及高纬度海区,El Niño和La Niña对这些要素带来的影响却并不一定相反,对输出生产力的影响甚至是一致的。以海表温度(SST)为例考察海气碳通量与物理场之间的关系表明,在赤道太平洋上升流对DIC的影响是控制海气碳通量变化的主要因素,而在其他海区,尤其是副热带海区,由于垂直运动的年际变化较小,且生物生产力水平较低,SST的波动对海气碳通量年际变化的影响更加重要。     

长江三角洲地区净生态系统二氧化碳通量及浓度的数值模拟

净生态系统碳通量(NEE)的计算对于准确模拟区域碳通量和大气CO₂浓度的时空变化至关重要。本文利用中尺度大气-温室气体耦合模式WRF-GHG(Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Greenhouse Gases Module),对2010年7月28日至2010年8月2日期间影响长江三角洲地区大气CO₂浓度及时空分布的各种过程进行了详尽模拟。结果表明,植被光合呼吸模型(VPRM)能模拟不同植被下垫面NEE的日变化;WRF-GHG模拟的大气CO₂浓度日变化与观测相吻合,但低估了大气CO₂浓度5~15 ppm(ppm表示10-6),这可能与人为排放源的低估、VPRM参数的不确定性以及气象场模拟的不准确性有关。太湖和植被覆盖较好的地区如浙江北部山区是该地区的主要碳汇,而城市为CO₂的主要排放源。太湖和陆地生态系统对区域内碳循环起到一定的调节作用,减缓区域大气CO₂浓度的升高。此外,局地气象条件如湖陆风对太湖周边地区大气CO₂浓度有显著影响。     

A SIMULATION OF CO2 UPTAKE IN A THREE DIMENSIONAL OCEAN CARBON CYCLE MODEL*

A three-dimensional ocean carbon cycle model which is a general circulation model coupled with simple biogeochemical processes is used to simulate CO₂ uptake by the ocean.The OGCM used is a modified version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory modular ocean model(MOM2).The ocean chemistry and a simple ocean biota model are included.Principal variablesare total CO₂,alkalinity and phosphate.The vertical profile of POC flux observed by sediment traps is adopted,the rain ratio,a ratio of production rate of calcite against that of POC,and the bio-production efficiency should be 0.06 and 2 per year,separately.The uptake of anthropogenic CO₂ by the ocean is studied.Calculated oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO₂ during the 1980s is 2.05×10¹⁵g(Pg)per year.The regional distributions of global oceanic CO₂ are discussed.     

Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario

Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric ??target?? concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the projected concentration pathways of aerosol in the next decades control the evolution of surface ocean biogeochemistry in the second half of this century more than the specific pathways of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations.     

基于WRF模式的京津冀地区地表大气CO2浓度的模拟研究

在“双碳”目标背景下，从国家层面到地方层面，区域、城市、行业企业都在制定和实施双碳目标行动计划。CO₂模拟因其客观性和高时空分辨率等优势，在城市碳排放研究中深受重视。本研究以京津冀地区为研究区域，采用Picarro仪器高精度观测的2019—2020年CO₂数据，利用WRF模式进行CO₂传输模拟，分析了CO₂浓度变化的季节特征，评估了模式在城区中心、城郊及背景3个观测站点的模拟效果，并对边界层高度及化石燃料碳排放等可能影响CO₂浓度的因素进行了研究。3个观测站点分别为北京中国科学院大气物理研究所325 m气象塔观测站（北京站）、河北香河观测站（香河站）和上甸子区域本底观测站（上甸子站）。模拟结果表明：上甸子站优于香河站，香河站优于北京站，在冬季尤其明显；CO₂浓度的高值区主要分布在城区、电厂和工业区，尤其是唐山、石家庄和邯郸地区，大量交通、工业排放导致CO₂浓度明显上升，且高值区的范围在冬季最大；就日平均变化和日变化而言，边界层高度与CO₂浓度存在相反变化趋势；3个站点的化石燃料碳排放（FFECO2）与近地面总CO₂浓度存在正相关关系，冬春季的相关性高于夏秋季，且FFECO2的占比从大到小依次为北京站、香河站、上甸子站；CO₂传输模拟的不确定性存在空间差异和季节变化。     

Can ocean iron fertilization mitigate ocean acidification?

Ocean iron fertilization has been proposed as a method to mitigate anthropogenic climate change, and there is continued commercial interest in using iron fertilization to generate carbon credits. It has been further speculated that ocean iron fertilization could help mitigate ocean acidification. Here, using a global ocean carbon cycle model, we performed idealized ocean iron fertilization simulations to place an upper bound on the effect of iron fertilization on atmospheric CO₂ and ocean acidification. Under the IPCC A2 CO₂ emission scenario, at year 2100 the model simulates an atmospheric CO₂ concentration of 965 ppm with the mean surface ocean pH 0.44 units less than its pre-industrial value of 8.18. A globally sustained ocean iron fertilization could not diminish CO₂ concentrations below 833 ppm or reduce the mean surface ocean pH change to less than 0.38 units. This maximum of 0.06 unit mitigation in surface pH change by the end of this century is achieved at the cost of storing more anthropogenic CO₂ in the ocean interior, furthering acidifying the deep-ocean. If the amount of net carbon storage in the deep ocean by iron fertilization produces an equivalent amount of emission credits, ocean iron fertilization further acidifies the deep ocean without conferring any chemical benefit to the surface ocean.     

A Model Evaluation of Biological Effects on Seasonal Variation of Air–Sea CO2 Flux in the Yellow and East China Seas

Based on a coupled physical-biogeochemical model of the Yellow and East China Seas (YECS), the influence of biological activity on the seasonal variation of the air–sea CO₂ flux is evaluated. The solution of a sensitivity experiment that excludes biological activity is compared with that of a reference experiment that includes the full processes. The comparison reveals that biological activity results in a much stronger seasonal variation of surface dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and, hence, the ratio of total alkalinity to DIC in the northern parts of the YECS. The increased ratio resulting from biological DIC consumption contributes to the undersaturated partial pressure of CO₂ at the sea surface with respect to the atmosphere, causing the central Yellow Sea in summer and autumn to shift from being a CO₂ source to a sink; this same shift also occurs over the Changjiang Bank in summer. In the southern YECS, the biological effect is relatively weak. The comparison further reveals that low water temperature, instead of biological activity, is the dominant factor causing the YECS to become a carbon sink in spring. The biological effect on the variation of DIC (both at the surface and in the water column) differs greatly among the three representative regions of the YECS because of differences in primary production and hydrodynamic conditions. Particle-tracking simulations quantify the regional difference in horizontal advection. In the northern region, weaker horizontal advection causes the longer residence time of low DIC water induced by biological consumption. Over the entire YECS, biological activity contributes to about one-third of the total annual absorption of atmospheric CO₂.     

北半球近地层典型区CO_2体积分数时空分布及成因

利用GEOS-Chem全球三维大气化学传输模式,分析了北半球近地层CO2体积分数的时空变化特征及其成因。2006—2010年的5 a的模拟结果表明:北半球中纬度近地层CO2体积分数存在着两个高值中心,即亚洲东部和北美东北部。在季节尺度上,亚洲东部CO2体积分数最大值出现在春季,而北美东北区域CO2体积分数最大值出现在冬季;而两个地区的CO2体积分数最低值都出现在夏季。在年际尺度上,两个区域CO2体积分数的年际变率增幅明显高于北半球其它区域,且CO2体积分数高值出现时间的年际差异较大。另外,模拟分析发现北半球森林、农田、草原典型区域,所对应的CO2体积分数具有不同的季节变化特点,它们的CO2季节内变幅依次减小。进一步分析发现3种不同典型区域的CO2体积分数与叶面积指数(LAI)季节变化,具有很好的负相关性。可见陆地生态系统作为碳汇,对近地层CO2体积分数的季节变化具有重要的作用。而温度和降水是影响LAI的最重要的两个气象因子,它们与CO2体积分数季节变化存在内在联系,模拟结果表明北半球大部分陆地近地层CO2体积分数与温度、降水呈现显著的负相关。     

Constraints on the temperature sensitivity of global soil respiration from the observed interannual variability in atmospheric CO2

Carbon cycle feedbacks have been shown to be very important in predicting climate change over the next century. The response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to climate change depends on the competition between increased respiration due to warmer temperatures and increased uptake due to elevated CO₂levels. Whether the terrestrial carbon cycle remains a sink for anthropogenic carbon, or switches to become a source, depends particularly on the response of soil respiration to temperature. Here we use observed global atmospheric CO₂concentration to constrain the behaviour of soil respiration in a coupled climate–carbon cycle GCM.     

Effects of solar radiation modification on the ocean carbon cycle: An earth system modeling study

Solar radiation modification (SRM, also termed as geoengineering) has been proposed as a potential option to counteract anthropogenic warming. The underlying idea of SRM is to reduce the amount of sunlight reaching the atmosphere and surface, thus offsetting some amount of global warming. Here, the authors use an Earth system model to investigate the impact of SRM on the global carbon cycle and ocean biogeochemistry. The authors simulate the temporal evolution of global climate and the carbon cycle from the pre-industrial period to the end of this century under three scenarios: the RCP4.5 CO₂ emission pathway, the RCP8.5 CO₂ emission pathway, and the RCP8.5 CO₂ emission pathway with the implementation of SRM to maintain the global mean surface temperature at the level of RCP4.5. The simulations show that SRM, by altering global climate, also affects the global carbon cycle. Compared to the RCP8.5 simulation without SRM, by the year 2100, SRM reduces atmospheric CO₂ by 65 ppm mainly as a result of increased CO₂ uptake by the terrestrial biosphere. However, SRM-induced change in atmospheric CO₂ and climate has a small effect in mitigating ocean acidification. By the year 2100, relative to RCP8.5, SRM causes a decrease in surface ocean hydrogen ion concentration ([H⁺]) by 6% and attenuates the seasonal amplitude of [H⁺] by about 10%. The simulations also show that SRM has a small effect on globally integrated ocean net primary productivity relative to the high-CO₂ simulation without SRM. This study contributes to a comprehensive assessment of the effects of SRM on both the physical climate and the global carbon cycle.摘要太阳辐射干预地球工程是应对气候变化的备用应急措施. 其基本思路是通过减少到达大气和地表的太阳辐射, 从一定程度上抵消温室效应引起的全球变暖. 本研究使用地球系统模式模拟理想化太阳辐射干预方法对海洋碳循环的影响. 模拟试验中, 通过直接减少太阳辐射将RCP8.5 CO₂排放情景下的全球平均温度降低到RCP4.5情景下的温度. 模拟结果表明, 到2100年, 相对于RCP8.5情景, 减少太阳辐射通过增加陆地碳汇, 使大气CO₂浓度降低了65 ppm. 减少太阳辐射对海洋酸化影响很小. 到 2100 年, 相对于RCP8.5情景, 减少太阳辐射使海表平均氢离子浓度减少6%, pH上升0.03, 同时使海表平均氢离子浓度的季节变化振幅衰减约10%. 模拟结果还表明, 减少太阳辐射对全球海洋净初级生产力的影响较小. 本研究有助于深化我们对太阳辐射干预地球工程的气候和碳循环效应的认知和综合评估.     

Long-term effects of anthropogenic CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions simulated with a complex earth system model

A new complex earth system model consisting of an atmospheric general circulation model, an ocean general circulation model, a three-dimensional ice sheet model, a marine biogeochemistry model, and a dynamic vegetation model was used to study the long-term response to anthropogenic carbon emissions. The prescribed emissions follow estimates of past emissions for the period 1751–2000 and standard IPCC emission scenarios up to the year 2100. After 2100, an exponential decrease of the emissions was assumed. For each of the scenarios, a small ensemble of simulations was carried out. The North Atlantic overturning collapsed in the high emission scenario (A2) simulations. In the low emission scenario (B1), only a temporary weakening of the deep water formation in the North Atlantic is predicted. The moderate emission scenario (A1B) brings the system close to its bifurcation point, with three out of five runs leading to a collapsed North Atlantic overturning circulation. The atmospheric moisture transport predominantly contributes to the collapse of the deep water formation. In the simulations with collapsed deep water formation in the North Atlantic a substantial cooling over parts of the North Atlantic is simulated. Anthropogenic climate change substantially reduces the ability of land and ocean to sequester anthropogenic carbon. The simulated effect of a collapse of the deep water formation in the North Atlantic on the atmospheric CO₂ concentration turned out to be relatively small. The volume of the Greenland ice sheet is reduced, but its contribution to global mean sea level is almost counterbalanced by the growth of the Antarctic ice sheet due to enhanced snowfall. The modifications of the high latitude freshwater input due to the simulated changes in mass balance of the ice sheet are one order of magnitude smaller than the changes due to atmospheric moisture transport. After the year 3000, the global mean surface temperature is predicted to be almost constant due to the compensating effects of decreasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations due to oceanic uptake and delayed response to increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations before.     

Deforestation in Russia and its contribution to the anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide in 1990–2013

The contribution of deforestation in Russia to the anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in 1990–2013 is estimated using the methods of computational monitoring. It is found that since 1990 the area of deforestation and forest conversion to other land-use categories is equal to 628.4 x 10³ ha. The respective CO₂ emissions from deforestation in Russia for the whole analyzed period are estimated at 142200 kt CO₂ with the average annual value of 5900 + 2270 kt CO₂/year. The largest contribution to the total losses is made by the changes in soil carbon stock (41.6%) and biomass carbon losses (28.8%). CO₂ emissions from deforestation make an insignificant contribution to the total anthropogenic CO₂ emission in the country (0.2%). Among the CO₂ sources in the land use, land-use change, and forestry sector (LULUCF), the emission from deforestation is the lowest with the average for 1990–2013 contribution of about 0.6%.     

Carbon cycle–climate feedback sensitivity to parameter changes of a zero-dimensional terrestrial carbon cycle scheme in a climate model of intermediate complexity

Summary A series of sensitivity runs have been performed with a coupled climate–carbon cycle model. The climatic component consists of the climate model of intermediate complexity IAP RAS CM. The carbon cycle component is formulated as a simple zero-dimensional model. Its terrestrial part includes gross photosynthesis, and plant and soil respirations, depending on temperature via Q ₁₀-relationships (Lenton, 2000). Oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon is formulated is a bi-linear function of tendencies of atmospheric concentration of CO₂ and globally averaged annual mean sea surface temperature. The model is forced by the historical industrial and land use emissions of carbon dioxide for the second half of the 19th and the whole of the 20th centuries, and by the emission scenario SRES A2 for the 21st century. For the standard set of the governing parameters, the model realistically captures the main features of the Earth’s observed carbon cycle. A large number of simulations have been performed, perturbing the governing parameters of the terrestrial carbon cycle model. In addition, the climate part is perturbed, either by zeroing or artificially increasing the climate model sensitivity to the doubling of the atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Performing the above mentioned perturbations, it is possible to mimic most of the range found in the C4MIP simulations. In this way, a wide range of the climate–carbon cycle feedback strengths is obtained, differing even in the sign of the feedback. If the performed simulations are subjected to the constraints of a maximum allowed deviation of the simulated atmospheric CO₂ concentration (pCO_2(a)) from the observed values and correspondence between simulated and observed terrestrial uptakes, it is possible to narrow the corresponding uncertainty range. Among these constraints, considering pCO_2(a) and uptakes are both important. However, the terrestrial uptakes constrain the simulations more effectively than the oceanic ones. These constraints, while useful, are still unable to rule out both extremely strong positive and modest negative climate–carbon cycle feedback.     

Partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the peter the great bay surface water in the autumn

During the hydrological survey from November 4 to 9, 2009, the underway measurements of pH, temperature, and salinity of the surface water in the Peter the Great Bay were carried out using the cell without the liquid junction in the running system. Using the measurement data, the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO₂) was computed which was below its atmospheric value and varied from 290 to 360μatm. Thus, during the period under study, the surface water of the bay forms the runoff for the atmospheric carbon dioxide. The minimum values of pCO₂ are associated with the warm stream entering the bay from the southwestern part of the open sea. The maximum values of pCO₂ are associated with the local upwelling of bottom waters. It is suggested that the horizontal convection caused by the nonuniform cooling of coastal water in the autumn forms the revealed mesoscale dynamic structures.