人工鱼礁工程的风险评估

对台风暴潮影响下的嵊泗海域人工鱼礁工程做了风险评估,考虑了台风暴潮中出现的大浪和风暴潮减水对鱼礁联合作用的危害。风险评估分为危险灾害识别、失效概率计算、失效后果评估、风险准则评定和风险管理决策几个主要的步骤。在失效概率的计算中采用基于应用设计点的重点抽样法随机模拟的技术,这一随机模拟技术可以广泛的应用与海洋工程结构的风险评估当中。     

基于重点抽样法的固定式平台结构风险评价研究

在建立海上油气设施的风险分析系统时,对由台风引发的极端海况造成的结构失效进行风险评估是1个十分重要的问题。为了建立实用可靠的风险评价方法,本文使用基于重点抽样法的随机模拟技术,对渤海海域CB12-C井组平台结构进行了全概率法失效概率计算,并在此基础上进行了平台结构的风险评价。该方法是1种适用于固定式海洋平台的定量风险评价方法,充分考虑了平台结构风险分析过程中各种不确定性的影响,极大提高了定量风险评价结果的可靠性。     

三向载荷联合作用下的大型集装箱船结构可靠性研究

大型集装箱船（LCS）具有较大的甲板开口,抗扭刚度非常低。在恶劣海况下航行时,大型集装箱船可能会遭遇斜浪的作用,此时船体将受到三向载荷的联合作用,水平波浪弯矩和扭转波浪弯矩可能会接近甚至超过垂向波浪弯矩,船体可能因发生组合变形而破坏。因此有必要研究大型集装箱船在三向载荷联合作用下的结构可靠性。在研究三向载荷联合作用下各维度极限强度的相互关系的基础上,提出了大型集装箱船的极限承载能力的可靠性评估方法,并对目标船在各浪向角下的结构可靠性进行评估。结果表明：目标船在0°浪向角下的失效概率最高;考虑水平波浪弯矩影响后目标船的结构可靠性有所降低;扭转波浪弯矩对目标船船中剖面的结构可靠性影响较小。     

System Reliability Analysis of Offshore Strctures and Component Safety Rank Assessment

Offshore structures will encounter serious environmental load,so it is important to study thestructural system reliability and to evaluate the structural component safety rank.In this paper,thebracnch-and-bound method is adopted to search the main failure path,and the Ditlevsen bound method isused to calculate the system failure probability.The structure is then assessed by the fuzzy comprehensiveassessment method,which evaluates the structural component safety rank.The ultimate equation of the tu-bular cross-section is analyzed on the basis of ultimate stregnth analysis.The influence of effectcoefficients on the structural system failure probability is investigated,and basic results are obtained.Ageneral program for spatial frame structures by means of the above method is developed,and verified bythe numerical examples.     

Risk Analysis of Breakwater Caisson Under Wave Attack Using Load Surface Approximation

A new load surface based approach to the reliability analysis of caisson-type breakwater is proposed. Uncertainties of the horizontal and vertical wave loads acting on breakwater are considered by using the so-called load surfaces, which can be estimated as functions of wave height, water level, and so on. Then, the first-order reliability method（FORM） can be applied to determine the probability of failure under the wave action. In this way, the reliability analysis of breakwaters with uncertainties both in wave height and in water level is possible. Moreover, the uncertainty in wave breaking can be taken into account by considering a random variable for wave height ratio which relates the significant wave height to the maximum wave height. The proposed approach is applied numerically to the reliability analysis of caisson breakwater under wave attack that may undergo partial or full wave breaking.     

Compliant vertical access riser assessment: DOE analysis and dynamic response optimization

As a contribution to the deepwater oil and gas industry, this paper addresses the use of optimization techniques together with a design of experiments (DOE) assessment, as a way of automating the design of compliant vertical access risers (CVARs) while also leading to an optimal riser configuration based on some desired efficiency parameters. The CVAR is a new riser concept that can improve the structural performance of the production system and also provide several operational benefits. The DOE is a statistical technique that provides an objective measure of how design parameters are correlated and the effective contribution of each one at the riser performance. Based on such a study some general conclusive remarks on the global behavior of CVAR will be presented. Such results also play an important role for the optimization process, as it can highlight significant design parameters, enabling design simplifications and efficiency improvement. For optimization assessment, geometric parameters are taken as the design variables and the design constraints consider both structural integrity and operational criteria. A multi-objective approach is considered taking into account the structural performance and geometric criteria. Optimal solution is obtained by NSGA-II method. Extreme and operational environmental conditions of a Brazilian offshore field are used as the base case.     

Probabilistic Assessment of Wave Overtopping of Nampo Dike in the West Coast of Korea

The Nampo dike, which is located at the west coast of Korea, was destroyed by wave overtopping during the storms on 30 August and 17 September in 1959. In this paper, is performed the probabilistic assessment of wave overtopping of Nampo dike by use of Owen model, Van der Meer ＆ Janssen model and Hedges ＆ Reis model for wave overtopping of seawall. Based on the available tidal and wave data for storm surges in 1989, the risk assessment of wave overtopping of the Nampo dike has been carried out by both Level Ⅱ and Level Ⅲ reliability methods. The calculated resuhs show the general agreement of failure probability between the two methods. By utilizing the rehabilitated cross section of Nampo dike, the failure probability of wave overtopping for the Nampo dike after rehabilitation will be rapidly reduced to that of initial design at crest level of 9.0 m with the improved slope from 1 ： 2 to 1 ： 4 at seaside. Since the sea level may only rise 1.0 m in the next few decades, the failure probability of Nampo dike will be still in the safe range.     

复合加载模式作用下地基承载性能数值分析

确定竖向荷载(V)、水平荷载(H)和力矩(M)共同作用下建筑物地基的破坏模式及在荷载空间(H,V,M)中的破坏包络面是地基设计中的关键问题。为提高Swipe试验方法计算精度,提出了改进方案,进而利用有限元方法分析了复合加载模式作用下均质粘性土地基上条形基础的破坏包络面。计算表明,基于改进Swipe试验方法的数值模拟结果明显好于常规Swipe试验方法。针对海洋工程中实际复合加载模式的特点,探讨了竖向荷载分量V对地基破坏模式和H-M荷载平面上的破坏包络线的影响,结果表明竖向荷载分量显著地改变了地基的破坏模式及包络线的形状。     

防波堤风险分析研究框架

介绍了防波堤风险分析研究的内容、方法和目前的研究进展。防波堤风险分析包涵四个主要方面:防波堤风险辨识、防波堤风险估计、防波堤风险评价和防波堤风险控制。具体内容包括:防波堤系统正常使用极限状态和承载力极限状态的界定,波浪不确定性的识别和描述,防波堤失效模式的探讨,单一模式失效概率和系统失效概率的计算,两种极限状态失效后果的量化,成本-获益分析,效用分析,可接受风险准则和降低风险的措施。防波堤风险分析的目的在于为决策者明确工程中存在的诸多不确定性因素,提供充足信息,实现项目的决策优化。     

Risk Assessment for Tuzla Naval Base Breakwater

1 .IntroductionTurkeywasstruckbytwomajorearthquakeeventsonAugust 1 7thandNovember 1 2th ,1 999,namedIzmit (Mw=7.4 )andD櫣ｚｃｅ (Mw=7.2 )earthquakes,respectively .ThestationsoperatedbytheGeneralDirectorateofDisasterAffairs,theKandilliObservatoryandEarthquakeResearchInstituteofIstanbulTechnicalUniversitymeasuredatleast 2 7stronggroundmotionsfortheIzmitearthquakewithin 2 0 0kmofthefault.AsignificantsegmentofthefaultrupturedintheareabetweenthewestofGolcukandtheeastofLakeSapanca .Inthesou…     

A Global Refiability Assessment Method on Aging Offshore Platforms with Corrosion and Cracks

Corrosion and fatigue cracks are major threats to the structural integrity of aging offshore platforms.For the rational estimation of the safety levels of aging platforms,a global reliability assessment approach for aging offshore platforms with corrosion and fatigue cracks is presented in this paper.The base shear capacity is taken as the global ultimate strength of the offshore plaffoms,it is modeled as a random process that decreases with time in the presence of corrosion and fatigue crack propagation.And the corrosion and fatigue crack growth rates in the main members and key joints are modeled as random variables.A simulation method of the extreme wave loads which are applied to the structures of offshore platforms is proposed too.Furthermore,the statistics of global base shear capacity and extreme wave loads are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation method.On the basis of the limit state equation of global failure mode,the instantaneous reliability and time dependent reliability assessment methods are both presented in this paper.Finally the instantaueous reliability index and time dependent failure probability of a jacket platform are estimated with different ages in the demonstration example.     

落物撞击作用下海底管道风险评估

海洋平台吊机起吊货物频繁,落物事故偶有发生,对平台附近的海底管道造成危害。在DNV推荐方法的基础上,改进了碰撞概率的计算方法。运用概率统计的方法以及失效概率理论编制Matlab程序,充分考虑各因素不确定性基础上,对落物撞击作用下海底管道进行了风险评估及敏感性分析。为减少落物对海底管线的损伤,及如何配置合理的防护措施提供了科学依据。     

海堤安全风险评估技术研究

我国现行规范体系中,关于堤防工程安全标准的确定,主要根据工程级别确定设计重现期,从而选定工程设计参数。文中提出了依据安全风险评估的结果确定海堤安全风险等级方法。首先,通过对海堤灾害进行风险识别和分析,将洪水灾害和海堤结构自身安全失效作为海堤灾害两种主要形式,建立了海堤灾害故障树。然后,将水文动力条件作为随机变量,从频率分布角度定量计算海堤洪水灾害风险程度和结构安全失效风险,提出了海堤安全风险评价方法。最后,依据规范中关于海堤等级和重现期标准的规定,结合海堤洪灾安全风险和结构自身安全风险的评价结果,确定海堤安全风险等级。文中提出的海堤安全评价技术依据海堤风险定量计算结果,从海堤现状条件满足其设计功能目标有效程度,判定海堤安全等级的级别,是一种相对较新且更科学的方法。该海堤安全风险评估技术为海堤管理和建设提供科学支撑。     

瘫船稳性第二层薄弱性衡准研究

基于IMO第二代完整稳性草案中瘫船稳性第二层薄弱性衡准的有关研究,分析草案提出的简化计算方法,采用一个单自由度船舶横摇运动微分方程,利用例船CEHIPAR2792数据,编译相应程序,求得不规则横风横浪作用下瘫船横摇运动相应特征,进而计算特定海况下的倾覆概率及特定海区的平均倾覆指数,并与草案值进行对比。分析不同拟合扶正力臂曲线方法和剩余稳性高对计算结果的影响,并对瘫船稳性第二层薄弱性衡准方法进行修改。     

Risk assessment of a vertical breakwater using possibility and evidence theories

This paper proposes a preliminary investigation of possibility and evidence theories in a risk analysis of a vertical breakwater. The results obtained from both theories are presented and compared to the Monte Carlo simulations. This study indicates that the evidence theory approach is more flexible than the possibility theory approach and may provide a useful tool for a joint handling of variability and imprecision in the computation of risk. On the other hand, the possibility theory approach may have a good potential to be used for risk assessment of coastal structures, when sufficient data are not available.     

Information structuring and risk-based inspection for the marine oil pipelines

The proposed work is incorporated into the research theme concerning the maintenance and inspection of sensitive facilities in production systems. It is essential to promote the methodological deployment of inspection techniques to ensure the good functioning of services provided by complex production systems as well as their different components. We use a risk-based inspection methodology offering an organized analysis with knowledge sharing for collaborative possibilities in a multidisciplinary context and it consists of the following steps: data acquisition and information collection, failure analysis (probability and consequences), risk assessment, inspection plan, mitigation and revaluation. The application of this methodology can improve the maintenance management strategies of industrial companies. The inspection department is able to forecast its potential failure, root causes and impacts on the safe operation of the considered production system, based on a reliable inventory of existing situations and review options for continuous improvement in maintenance management. In particular, we addressed the application of a Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) methodology in the French petroleum company with operations on the west coast of central and southern Africa. The incorporation of expert knowledge into risk assessment is helping to find the best preventive plan for pipeline inspection in the case study.     

第三方活动冲击荷载作用下近海管道损伤机理及风险评估研究现状

平台坠物、船舶抛锚等第三方活动引起的冲击损伤是近海管道失效的主要原因,时刻威胁中国海洋油气开发系统的安全性。为保障近海油气管道安全运行,围绕冲击荷载作用下管道损伤及失效评估这一中心问题,从管道损伤机理研究、含冲击损伤管道安全评估、管道工程项目风险评估3个方面总结了国内外研究发展现状,明确了影响结构安全的关键问题,并对未来研究工作提出建议。挖沟埋深为管道防护冲击损伤的有效手段,土体强度是防护效果关键因素,应重点关注土体强度空间变异性问题;管道冲击损伤主要为平滑凹陷和弯折凹陷,对于后者应进一步确定其在内压荷载下的剩余强度及疲劳强度;风险评估中失效判据对于结果有显著影响,需构建考虑多种安全性评估准则的失效判据体系。     

基于模糊影响图的海洋结构风险分析方法研究

基于模糊影响图(FPID)和失效模式与效果分析(FMEA)建立了一种海洋结构风险分析方法。鉴于风险分析中某些事件发生概率和关系概率两个重要参数确定时需借助专家主观判断,本文将模糊概率的概念引入海洋结构影响图评估方法中。该方法成功地应用到海洋平台人员伤害分析中。虽然这里仅给出了该方法在海洋平台风险评估中的应用,但其具有更广泛应用价值。     

渤海抗冰导管架平台失效模式分析

基于多个现役结构的监测数据,对渤海抗冰导管架平台的动力失效进行了分析。结果显示,渤海抗冰导管架平台属于典型的柔性抗冰结构,存在比较显著的冰激振动现象,冰振不仅能引起显著的导管架管结点疲劳应力,还会激起较大的甲板加速度响应,引起作业人员与上部设施的疲劳问题。