海堤安全风险评估技术研究

我国现行规范体系中,关于堤防工程安全标准的确定,主要根据工程级别确定设计重现期,从而选定工程设计参数。文中提出了依据安全风险评估的结果确定海堤安全风险等级方法。首先,通过对海堤灾害进行风险识别和分析,将洪水灾害和海堤结构自身安全失效作为海堤灾害两种主要形式,建立了海堤灾害故障树。然后,将水文动力条件作为随机变量,从频率分布角度定量计算海堤洪水灾害风险程度和结构安全失效风险,提出了海堤安全风险评价方法。最后,依据规范中关于海堤等级和重现期标准的规定,结合海堤洪灾安全风险和结构自身安全风险的评价结果,确定海堤安全风险等级。文中提出的海堤安全评价技术依据海堤风险定量计算结果,从海堤现状条件满足其设计功能目标有效程度,判定海堤安全等级的级别,是一种相对较新且更科学的方法。该海堤安全风险评估技术为海堤管理和建设提供科学支撑。

Research on seawall safety risk level assessment technology

In China''s current standard system, the determination of safety standards for seawall projects is mainly based on the engineering level to determine the design return period, so as to select the engineering design parameters. This paper proposes a method to determine the safety failure risk level of seawalls based on the results of safety risk assessment. First of all, through the risk identification and analysis of seawall disasters, the flood disaster and the safety of the seawall structure are regarded as the two main forms of seawall disasters, and the seawall disaster fault tree is established. Then, using dynamic conditions as random variables, the degree of seawall flood disaster risk and structural safety failure risk are quantitatively calculated from the perspective of frequency distribution, and a seawall safety risk assessment method is proposed. Finally, according to the regulations on seawall level and return period standards in the specification, and based on the evaluation results of seawall flood safety risk and the structure''s own safety risk, the seawall safety risk level is determined. The seawall safety evaluation technique proposed in this paper is a relatively new and scientific method to determine the safety level of seawall from the effective degree that the current conditions of seawall meet the design function objective according to the quantitative calculation results of seawall risk. The seawall safety risk assessment technology provides scientific support for seawall management and construction.