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1.
Annual freezing and thawing index of 7 meteorological stations along the Qing-hai-Xizang Railway were calculated based on daily maximum and minimum temperature records for 1966?2004. Trends of annual freezing and thawing index were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test and a simple linear regression method. The results show that: 1) The mean annual freezing indices range from 95 to 2300℃·d and the mean annual thawing indi-ces range from 630 to 3250℃·d. The mean annual freezing index of the 7 stations exhibited decreasing trends with decreasing rate of ?16.6– ?59.1℃·d /10a. The mean annual thawing index of these 7 stations showed increasing trends with the related decreasing rate is 19.83–45.6℃·d /10a. 2) The MK trend test indicated the significant decreasing trends (sig-nificant at < 0.05 significant level) in the annual freezing index for most stations except for Golmud. The significant increasing trends can be observed in the annual thawing index for 4 stations except Golmud and Tuotuohe. Golmud was the only station with no trends in both annual freezing and annual thawing index.  相似文献   

2.
WenWen Wang 《寒旱区科学》2013,5(2):0240-0250
Based on daily maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation records at 48 meteorological stations in Xinjiang, the spatial and temporal distributions of climate extreme indices have been analyzed during 1961-2008. Twelve temperature extreme indices and six precipitation extreme indices are studied. Temperature extremes are highly correlated to annual mean temperature, which appears to be significantly increasing by 0.08 °C per year, indicating that changes in temperature extremes reflect consistent warming. The warming tendency is clearer at stations in northern Xinjiang as reflected by mean temperature. The frequencies of cold days and nights have both decreased, respectively by 0.86 and 2.45 d/decade, but the frequencies of warm days and nights have both increased, respectively by +1.62 and +4.85 d/decade. Over the same period, the number of frost days shows a statistically significant decreasing trend of 2.54 d/decade. The growing season length and the number of summer days exhibit significant increasing trends at rates of +2.62 and +2.86 d/decade, respectively. The diurnal temperature range has decreased by 0.28 °C/decade. Both annual extreme low and high temperatures exhibit significant increasing trend, with the former clearly larger than the latter. For precipitation indices, regional annual total precipitation shows an increasing trend and most other precipitation indices are strongly correlated with annual total precipitation. Average wet day precipitation, maximum 1-day and 5-day precipitation, and heavy precipitation days show increasing trends, but only the last is statistically significant. A decreasing trend is found for consecutive dry days. For all precipitation indices, stations in northwestern Xinjiang have the largest positive trend magnitudes, while stations in northern Xinjiang have the largest negative magnitudes.  相似文献   

3.
The Yarlung Zangbo River (YR) is the highest great river in the world, and its basin is one of the centers of human economic activity in Tibet. Using 10 meteorological stations over the YR basin in 1961–2005, the spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature and precipitation as well as potential evapotranspiration are analyzed. The results are as follows. (1) The annual and four seasonal mean air temperature shows statistically significant increasing trend, the tendency is more significant in winter and fall. The warming in Lhasa river basin is most significant. (2) The precipitation is decreasing from the 1960s to the 1980s and increasing since the 1980s. From 1961 to 2005, the annual and four seasonal mean precipitation is increasing but not statistically significant, especially in fall and spring. The increasing precipitation rates are more pronounced in Niyangqu and Palong Zangbo river basins, the closer to the upper YR is, the less precipitation increasing rate would be. (3) The annual and four seasonal mean potential evapotranspiration has decreased, especially after the 1980s, and most of it happens in winter and spring. The decreasing trend is most significant in the middle YR and Nianchu river basin. (4) Compared with the Mt. Qomolangma region, Tibetan Plateau, China and global average, the magnitudes of warming trend over the YR basin since the 1970s exceed those areas in the same period, and compared with the Tibetan Plateau, the magnitudes of precipitation increasing and potential evapotranspiration decreasing are larger, suggesting that the YR basin is one of the most sensitive areas to global warming.  相似文献   

4.
Under the impacts of climate change and human activities, great uncertainties still exist in the response of climate extremes, especially in Central Asia(CA). In this study, we investigated spatial-temporal variation trends and abrupt changes in 17 indices of climate extremes, based on daily climate observations from 55 meteorological stations in CA during 1957–2005. We also speculated as to which atmospheric circulation factors had the greatest impacts on climate extremes. Our results indicated that the annual mean temperature(Tav), mean maximum and minimum temperature significantly increased at a rate of 0.32℃/10 a, 0.24℃/10 a and 0.41℃/10 a, respectively, which was far higher than the increasing rates either globally or across the Northern Hemisphere. Other temperature extremes showed widespread significant warming trends, especially for those indices derived from daily minimum temperature. All temperature extremes exhibited spatially widespread rising trends. Compared to temperature changes, precipitation extremes showed higher spatial and temporal variabilities. The annual total precipitation significantly increased at a rate of 4.76 mm/10 a, and all precipitation extremes showed rising trends except for annual maximum consecutive dry days(CDD), which significantly decreased at a rate of –3.17 days/10 a. On the whole, precipitation extremes experienced slight wetter trends in the Tianshan Mountains, Kazakhskiy Melkosopochnik(Hill), the Kyzylkum Desert and most of Xinjiang. The results of Cumulative Deviation showed that Tav and Txav had a significant abrupt change around 1987, and all precipitation indices experienced abrupt changes in 1986. Spearman's correlation analysis pointed to Siberian High and Tibetan Plateau Index_B as possibly being the most important atmospheric circulation factors affecting climate extremes in CA. A full quantitative understanding of these changes is crucial for the management and mitigation of natural hazards in this region.  相似文献   

5.
Changes in ground surface thermal regimes play a vital role in surface and subsurface hydrology, ecosystem diversity and productivity, and global thermal, water and carbon budgets as well as climate change. Estimating spring, summer, autumn and winter air temperatures and mean annual air temperature(MAAT) from 1960 through 2008 over the Heihe River Basin reveals a statistically significant trend of 0.31 °C/decade, 0.28 °C/decade, 0.37 °C/decade, 0.50 °C/decade, and 0.37 °C /decade, respectively. The averaged time series of mean annual ground surface temperature(MAGST) and maximum annual ground surface temperature(MaxAGST) for 1972–2006 over the basin indicates a statistically significant trend of 0.58 °C/decade and 1.27 °C/decade, respectively. The minimum annual ground surface temperature(MinAGST) in the same period remains unchanged as a whole. Estimating surface freezing/thawing index as well as the ratio of freezing index to thawing index(RFT) in the period between 1959 and 2006 over the basin indicates a statistically significant trend of-42.5 °C-day/decade, 85.4 °C-day/decade and-0.018/decade, respectively.  相似文献   

6.
Based on the daily precipitation from a 0.5°×0.5° gridded dataset and meteorological stations during 1961–2011 released by National Meteorological Information Center, the reliability of this gridded precipitation dataset in South China was evaluated. Five precipitation indices recommended by the World Meteorological Organization(WMO) were selected to investigate the changes in precipitation extremes of South China. The results indicated that the bias between gridded data interpolated to given stations and the corresponding observed data is limited, and the proportion of the number of stations with bias between –10% and 0 is 50.64%. The correlation coefficients between gridded data and observed data are generally above 0.80 in most parts. The average of precipitation indices shows a significant spatial difference with drier northwest section and wetter southeast section. The trend magnitudes of the maximum 5-day precipitation(RX5day), very wet day precipitation(R95), very heavy precipitation days(R20mm) and simple daily intensity index(SDII) are 0.17 mm·a–1, 1.14 mm·a–1, 0.02 d·a–1 and 0.01 mm·d–1·a–1, respectively, while consecutive wet days(CWD) decrease by –0.05 d·a–1 during 1961–2011. There is spatial disparity in trend magnitudes of precipitation indices, and approximate 60.85%, 75.32% and 75.74% of the grid boxes show increasing trends for RX5 day, SDII and R95, respectively. There are high correlations between precipitation indices and total precipitation, which is statistically significant at the 0.01 level.  相似文献   

7.
This study examines spatial and temporal changes in 16 extreme temperature indices at 37 weather stations in Xinjiang and their associations with changes in climate means during 1961–2008. Linear regression analyses reveal that significant increasing trends in temperature were observed over Xinjiang, with the rate of 0.13 °C/decade, 0.24 °C/decade, and 0.52 °C/decade for annual mean temperature, annual maximum, and minimum temperature, respectively. Annual frequency of cool nights (days) has decreased by -2.45 days/decade (-0.86 days/decade), whereas the frequency of warm nights (days) has increased by 4.85 days/decade (1.62 days/decade). Seasonally, the frequencies of summer warm nights and days are changing more rapidly than the corresponding frequencies for cool nights and days. However, normalization of the extreme and mean series shows that the rate of changes in extreme temperature events are generally less than those of mean temperatures, except for winter cold nights which are changing as rapidly as the winter mean minimum temperatures. These results indicate that there have been seasonally and diurnally asymmetric changes in extreme temperature events relative to recent increases in temperature means in Xinjiang.  相似文献   

8.
LiJuan M  DaHe Qin 《寒旱区科学》2012,4(5):0384-0393
Using observed snow cover data from Chinese meteorological stations, this study indicated that annual mean snow depth, Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), and snow density during 1957–2009 were 0.49 cm, 0.7 mm, and 0.14 g/cm3 over China as a whole, respectively. On average, they were all the smallest in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), and were greater in northwestern China (NW). Spatially, the regions with greater annual mean snow depth and SWE were located in northeastern China including eastern Inner Mongolia (NE), northern Xinjiang municipality, and a small fraction of southwestern QTP. Annual mean snow density was below 0.14 g/cm3 in most of China, and was higher in the QTP, NE, and NW. The trend analyses revealed that both annual mean snow depth and SWE presented increasing trends in NE, NW, the QTP, and China as a whole during 1957–2009. Although the trend in China as a whole was not significant, the amplitude of variation became increasingly greater in the second half of the 20th century. Spatially, the statistically significant (95%-level) positive trends for annual mean snow depth were located in western and northern NE, northwestern Xinjiang municipality, and northeastern QTP. The distribution of positive and negative trends for annual mean SWE were similar to that of snow depth in position, but not in range. The range with positive trends of SWE was not as large as that of snow depth, but the range with negative trends was larger.  相似文献   

9.
1951-2002年长江流域降水特征   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
The monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation trends in the Yangtze river catchment have been detected through analysis of 51 meteorological stations‘ data between 1950-2002 provided by National Meteorological Administration. Results reveal that: 1) Summer precipitation in the Yangtze river catchment shows significant increasing tendency. The Poyanghu lake basin, Dongtinghu lake basin and Taihu lake basin in the middle and lower reaches are the places showing significant positive trends. Summer precipitation in the middle and lower reaches experienced an abrupt change in the year 1992; 2) The monthly precipitation in months just adjoining to summer shows decreasing tendency in the Yangtze river catchment. The upper and middle reaches in Jialingjiang river basin and Hanshui river basin are the places showing significant negative trends; 3) Extreme precipitation events show an increasing tendency in most places, especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze river catchment.  相似文献   

10.
The paper presents the analysis of tendencies in water level changes in 32 lakes in Poland during 1976–2010.Series of monthly,seasonal,and annual precipitation and air temperature for 9 meteorological stations were also studied.The trend analysis for all of the studied series of water levels in lakes showed high spatial and temporal variability.Series of annual water levels in the case of 6 lakes showed statistically significant increasing tendencies,and in 7 lakes,significant decreasing trends.Series of annual amplitudes in the majority of lakes(22) showed a decreasing trend,but they were statistically significant only in three cases.The tendencies for air temperature fluctuations are more statistically significant than precipitation.The key role in determining water level changes is played by local factors,particularly including human economic activity,obscuring the effect of natural factors on water level changes.The paper describes cases of changes in water levels in lakes under anthropopressure related to among others: agricultural irrigations,hydropower infrastructure,water transfers,navigation,or mining.  相似文献   

11.
Trends of annual and monthly temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspi- ration and aridity index were analyzed to understand climate change during the period 1971–2000 over the Tibetan Plateau which is one of the most special regions sensitive to global climate change. FAO56–Penmen–Monteith model was modified to calculate potential evapotranspiration which integrated many climatic elements including maximum and mini- mum temperatures, solar radiation, relative humidity and wind speed. Results indicate gen- erally warming trends of the annual averaged and monthly temperatures, increasing trends of precipitation except in April and September, decreasing trends of annual and monthly poten- tial evapotranspiration, and increasing aridity index except in September. It is not the isolated climatic elements that are important to moisture conditions, but their integrated and simulta- neous effect. Moreover, potential evapotranspiration often changes the effect of precipitation on moisture conditions. The climate trends suggest an important warm and humid tendency averaged over the southern plateau in annual period and in August. Moisture conditions would probably get drier at large area in the headwater region of the three rivers in annual average and months from April to November, and the northeast of the plateau from July to September. Complicated climatic trends over the Tibetan Plateau reveal that climatic factors have nonlinear relationships, and resulte in much uncertainty together with the scarcity of observation data. The results would enhance our understanding of the potential impact of climate change on environment in the Tibetan Plateau. Further research of the sensitivity and attribution of climate change to moisture conditions on the plateau is necessary.  相似文献   

12.
华北平原降水的长期趋势分析(英文)   总被引:4,自引:1,他引:3  
The North China Plain (NCP) is the most important food grain producing area in China and has suffered from serious water shortages. To capture variation water availability, it is necessary to have an analysis of changing trends in precipitation. This study, based on daily precipitation data from 47 representative stations in NCP records passed the homogeneity test, analyzed the trend and amplitude of variation in monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation, annual maximum continuous no-rain days, annual rain days, rainfall intensity, and rainfall extremes from 1960 to 2007, using the MannKendall (M-K) test and Sen’s slope estimator. It was found that monthly precipitation in winter had a significant increasing trend in most parts, while monthly precipitation in July to September showed a decreasing trend in some parts of NCP. No significant changing trend was found for the annual, dry and wet season precipitation and rainfall extremes in the majority of NCP.A significant decreasing trend was detected for the maximum no-rain duration and annual rain days in the major part of NCP. It was concluded that the changing trend of precipitation in NCP had an apparent seasonal and regional pattern, i.e., precipitation showed an obvious increasing trend in winter, but a decreasing trend in the rainy season (July to September), and the changing trend was more apparent in the northern part than in the southern and middle parts. This implies that with global warming, seasonal variation of precipitation in NCP tends to decline with an increasing of precipitation in winter season, and a decreasing in rainy season, particularly in the sub-humid northern part.  相似文献   

13.
Investigation on spatiotemporal variations of maximum seasonal freeze depth (MSFD) over the Heihe River Basin is of great importance for systematic understanding of regional climate and environmental change, ecological-hydrological processes, water resources assessment, construction and resource development. Based on soil and air temperatures at the meteorological stations of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) over the Heihe River Basin, MSFDs time series are structured into a composite time series over the 1960-2007 period. Evaluating the averaged MSFD time series for 1960 2007 reveals a statistically significant trend of 4.0 cm/decade or a net change of-19.2 cm for the 48-year period over the basin. The MSFD had significantly negative correlation with mean annual air temperature (MAAT), winter air temperature, mean annual ground surface temperature (MAGST), degree days of thawing for the air (DDTa) as well as for the surface (DDTs), and degree days of freezing for the surface (DDFs). While there was significantly positive correlation between DDF,. and MSFD time series, MSFD was deeper and changed greatly in the Heihe River source area. It was shallower in the east-central basin and gradually deepened in other sections of the basin. The MSFD distribution pattern in 2003-2005 is consistent with that of averaged degree days of freezing for air (DDFa) in 1960-2007. However, the maximum of MSFD may not be accurate, because there is no long term observation data in the deep seasonally frozen ground regions near the lower boundary of permafrost. With increasing elevation, averaged DDFa increased at a rate of 51.6 ℃-day/100m, therefore, the MSFG and the date reaching MSFG became deeper and later, respectively.  相似文献   

14.
1956-2003年拉萨河流域径流变化趋势   总被引:4,自引:1,他引:3  
Taking the Lhasa River Basin above Lhasa hydrological station in Tibetan Plateau as a study area, the characteristics of the annual and monthly mean runoff during 1956-2003 were analyzed, based on the hydro-data of the two hydrological stations (Lhasa and Tanggya) and the meteorological data of the three meteorological stations (Damxung, Lhasa and Tanggya). The trends and the change points of runoff and climate from 1956 to 2003 were detected using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt-Mann-Whitney change-point statistics. The correlations between runoff and climate change were analyzed using multiple linear regression. The major results could be summarized as follows: (1) The annual mean runoff during the last 50 years is characterized by a great fluctuation and a positive trend with two change points (around 1970 and the early 1980s), after which the runoff tended to increase and was increasing intensively in the last 20 years. Besides, the monthly mean runoff with a positive trend is centralized in winter half-year (November to April) and some other months (May, July and September). (2) The trends of the climate change in the study area are generally consistent with the trend of the runoff, but the leading climate factors which aroused the runoff variation are distinct. Precipitation is the dominant factor influencing the annual and monthly mean runoff in summer half year, while temperature is the primary factor in winter season.  相似文献   

15.
A total of 12 indices of temperature extremes and 11 indices of precipitation ex-tremes at 111 stations in southwestern China at altitudes of 285-4700 m were examined for the period 1961-2008. Significant correlations of temperature extremes and elevation in-cluded the trends of diurnal temperature range, frost days, ice days, cold night frequency and cold day frequency. Regional trends of growing season length, warm night frequency, coldest night and warmest night displayed a statistically significant positive correlation with altitude. These characteristics indicated the obvious warming with altitude. For precipitation extreme indices, only the trends of consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, wet day precipitation and the number of heavy precipitation days had significant correlations with increasing alti-tude owing to the complex influence of atmospheric circulation. It also indicated the increased precipitation mainly at higher altitude areas, whereas the increase of extreme precipitation events mainly at lowers altitude. In addition, the clearly local influences are also crucial on climate extremes. The analysis revealed an enhanced sensitivity of climate extremes to ele-vation in southwestern China in the context of recent warming.  相似文献   

16.
LiJuan M  Yong Luo  DaHe Qin 《寒旱区科学》2012,4(2):0093-0106
Based on remote sensing snow water equivalent (SWE) data, the simulated SWE in 20C3M experiments from 14 models attending the third phase of the Coupled Models for Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3) was first evaluated by computing the different percentage, spatial correlation coefficient, and standard deviation of biases during 1979–2000. Then, the diagnosed ten models that performed better simulation in Eurasian SWE were aggregated by arithmetic mean to project the changes of Eurasian SWE in 2002–2060. Results show that SWE will decrease significantly for Eurasia as a whole in the next 50 years. Spatially, significant decreasing trends dominate Eurasia except for significant increase in the northeastern part. Seasonally, decreasing proportion will be greatest in summer indicating that snow cover in warmer seasons is more sensitive to climate warming. However, absolute decreasing trends are not the greatest in winter, but in spring. This is caused by the greater magnitude of negative trends, but smaller positive trends in spring than in winter. The changing characteristics of increasing in eastern Eurasia and decreasing in western Eurasia and over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau favor the viewpoint that there will be more rainfall in North China and less in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer. Additionally, the decreasing rate and extent with significant decreasing trends under SRES A2 are greater than those under SRES B1, indicating that the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) will speed up the decreasing rate of snow cover both temporally and spatially. It is crucial to control the discharge of GHG emissions for mitigating the disappearance of snow cover over Eurasia.  相似文献   

17.
Laboratory experiments were carried out to investigate the effect of freezing and thawing processes on wet aggregate stability (WAS) of black soil. Wet aggregate stability was determined by different aggregate size groups, different water contents, various freeze-thaw cycles, and various freezing temperatures. The results showed that, when at suitable water content, aggregate stability was enhanced, aggregate sta-bility will be disrupted when moisture content is too high or too low, especially higher water content. Temperature also had a significant ef-fect, but moisture content determined the suitable freezing temperatures for a given soil. Water-stable aggregate (WSA〉0.5), the total aggre-gate content, and mean weight diameter decreasing with the freeze-thaw cycles increase, reached to 5 percent significance level. The reason for crumbing aggregates is the water and air conflict, thus raising the hypothesis that water content affects the aggregate stability in the process of freezing and thawing.  相似文献   

18.
On the basis of two gridded datasets of daily precipitation and temperature with a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5°, and meteorological station data released by the National Meteorological Information Center(NMIC) during 1961–2013, the spatial and temporal variations of total amount of precipitation, amount of rainfall, amount of snowfall and snowfall/rainfall ratio(S/R) in the Tibetan Plateau(TP) are analyzed using Sen's slope, the Mann–Kendall mutation test, Inverse Distance Weighting(IDW) and the Morlet wavelet. Total amount of precipitation and amount of rainfall generally show statistically significant increasing trends of 0.6 mm·a~(–1) and 1.3 mm·a~(–1), respectively, while amount of snowfall and S/R have significant decreasing trends of –0.6 mm·a~(–1) and –0.5% a~(–1), respectively. In most regions, due to significant increasing trends in total amount of precipitation and amount of rainfall, and significant decreasing trends in amount of snowfall, S/R shows a decreasing trend in the TP. Abrupt changes in total amount of precipitation, amount of rainfall, amount of snowfall and S/R are detected for 2005, 2004, 1996 and 1998, respectively. Total amount of precipitation, amount of rainfall, amount of snowfall and S/R are concentrated in cycles of approximately 5 years, 10 years, 16 years and 20 years, respectively. The trend magnitudes for total amount of precipitation and amount of rainfall all show decreasing-to-increasing trends with elevation, while amount of snowfall and S/R show decreasing trends.  相似文献   

19.
Based on the statistical method and the historical evolution of meteorological stations,the temperature time series for each station in Hunan Province during 1910–2014 are tested for their homogeneity and then corrected.The missing data caused by war and other reasons at the 8 meteorological stations which had records before 1950 is filled by interpolation using adjacent observations,and complete temperature time series since the establishment of stations are constructed.After that,according to the representative analysis of each station in different time periods,the temperature series of Hunan Province during 1910–2014 are built and their changes are analyzed.The results indicate that the annual mean temperature has a significant warming trend during 1910–2014 and the seasonal mean temperature has the largest rising amplitude in winter and spring,followed by autumn,but no significant change in summer.Temperature variation over Hunan Province has several significant warm-cold alternations and more frequent than that in whole China.Annual and seasonal mean temperatures except summer and autumn have abrupt warming changes in the recent 100 years.The wavelet analysis suggests that the annual and four seasonal mean temperatures in recent 100 years have experienced two climatic shifts from cold to warm.  相似文献   

20.
Based on the sand dust storms data and climatic data in 12 meteorological stations around sand dust storm originating areas of the Taklimakan Desert, we analyzed the trends of the number of dust storm days from 1960 to 2005 as well as their correlations with temperature, precipitation, wind speed and the number of days with mean wind speed 〉 5 m/s. The results show that the frequency of dust storm events in the Taklimakan region decreased with the elapse of time. Except Ruoqiang and Minfeng, in the other 10 meteorological stations, the frequency of dust storm events reduces, and in 4 meteorological stations of Kuqa, Korla, Kalpin and Hotan, the frequency of dust storm events distinctly decreases. The temperature has an increasing trend, while the average wind speed and the number of days with mean wind speed ≥ 5 m/s have decreasing trends. The correlation analysis between the number of days of dust storms and climatic parameters demonstrates that wind speed and the number of days with mean wind speed 〉 5 m/s have strong positive correlation with the number of days of dust storms, with the correlations coefficients being 0.743 and 0.720 (p〈0.01), respectively, which indicates that strong wind is the direct factor resulting in sand dust storms. Whereas precipitation has significant negative correlation with the number of days of dust storms (p〈0.01), and the prior annual precipitation has also negative correlation, which indicates that the prior precipitation restrains the occurrence of sand dust storms, but this restraining action is weaker than the same year's precipitation. Temperature has negative correlation with the number of dust storm days, with a correlations coefficient of -0.433 (p〈0.01), which means that temperature change also has impacts on the occurrence of dust storm events in the Taklimakan region.  相似文献   

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