A discrete spatial choice model of burglary target selection at the house-level

This article studies how burglars select a house to burglarize. We draw on the rational choice perspective to investigate how burglars select a target by relying on house-related attributes to optimize a combination of perceived rewards, efforts and risk. It extends current applications of the discrete spatial choice framework to burglary target selection by adopting the house as the spatial unit of analysis and studies burglars' target selection process in a larger and more diverse study area than that of earlier studies. Using data on 650 residential burglaries and on approximately 500,000 residential properties in the Belgian province East Flanders, we consider a discrete spatial choice model of burglary target selection to establish which house-related attributes influence burglars' target selection process. Our findings demonstrate that terraced houses, houses without a garage, houses that have not been outfitted with a central heating and/or air-conditioning system and houses nearby burglars' residences are more likely to be selected. Overall, our analysis suggests that burglars rely on effort-related attributes to distinguish between targets while higher perceived rewards actually decrease the odds of a house being burglarized. Risk-related attributes are unimportant for burglars' target choice.     

入室盗窃临近重复案件与孤立案件分布的影响因素对比研究

以中国南方某特大城市YP区为例,结合犯罪地理学主要理论选取相关变量构建二元逻辑回归模型,探讨区域环境对入室盗窃临近重复案件和孤立案件分布的影响差异。研究发现：居民数量、银行&ATM机和公园集聚的区域发生临近重复案件的概率比孤立案件更高,而道路密度高的社区难以发生临近重复案件;青少年人口比重高和低租金住户多的社区会加剧弱势群体、问题人群的集中趋势,临近重复犯罪发生的可能性也会随之上升,其中青少年人口的影响程度高于低租金住户。研究结果可对微观社区层面入室盗窃临近重复犯罪的治安防控与警务政策制定提供一定的参考。     

Impact of public bus system on spatial burglary patterns in a Chinese urban context

PurposeTo examine the impact of public bus system on spatial burglary pattern in a Chinese urban context, as well as the spatial variation of this impact.MethodsLocal Moran's I, boxplot-based classification, geo-visualization, Chi-square test, and correlation analysis are used to explore the spatial coupling relationships between bus stops and burglary. Guided by routine activity approach, negative binomial regressions are performed for the developed and developing parts of the DP peninsula, as well as the whole peninsula based on proxies of potential offenders, guardians, targets, and spatial dependence.ResultsStatistically positive correlations are observed between burglary count and bus stop service capability. However, net of other factors, one more unidirectional bus route is expected to reduce burglary by nearly 2 percent for the whole area, and 4 percent for the developed area, while no statistically significant relationship is found for the developing area.ConclusionsThe bus-burglary relationships differ between the developed and developing urban areas. For the former, although burglaries concentrate around bus stops with higher service capability, the increase of bus service capability has a net impact of slightly depressing the occurrence of burglaries. Four possible mechanisms explaining this negative bus-burglary relationship in the DP peninsula are presented.     

Residential Burglaries and Neighborhood Socioeconomic Context in London,Ontario: Global and Local Regression Analysis*

The main aim of this article is to analyze the relationships between the spatial patterns of residential burglaries and the socioeconomic characteristics of neighborhoods in London, Ontario. Relative risk ratios are applied as a measure of the intensity of residential burglary. The variation in the risks of burglary is modeled as a function of contextual neighborhood variables. Following a conventional (global) regression analysis, spatial variations in the relationships are examined using geographically weighted regression (GWR). The GWR results show that there are significant local variations in the relationships between the risk of residential burglary victimization and the average value of dwellings and percentage of the population in multifamily housing. The results are discussed in the context of four hypotheses, which may explain geographical variations in residential burglary. The practical implication of the GWR analysis is that different crime prevention policies should be implemented in different neighborhoods of the city.     

入户盗窃犯罪的时空分布热点及其机理研究——以A市CP区警情分析为例

采用核密度估计和Aoristic analysis等方法分析了2015年A市CP区入户盗窃警情的时空分布热点,并通过热点矩阵分类进一步对热点内的犯罪时空分布格局及其内在犯罪机理进行分析。结果显示：CP区共有3个犯罪热点区域和2个集中时段;3个热点区域分别为时间集中-空间聚集型、时间集中-空间分散型、时间集中-空间热点型;同时,影响入户盗窃犯罪的机理在于犯罪主体关联要素、犯罪客体关联要素、犯罪环境关联要素在时空上的密切耦合,共同影响入户盗窃犯罪活动的形成;提示在预防及控制犯罪“热点”中,需要采取更有针对性的防范措施和对策。     

Space–time interaction of residential burglaries in Wuhan,China

Borrowing methods from epidemiology, studies of spatiotemporal regularities of crime have been booming in various industrialized countries. However, few such attempts are empirical studies using crime data in developing countries due to a lack of data availability. Utilizing a recent burglary dataset in Wuhan, the fourth largest city in China, current research applied the sequential kernel density estimation and the space–time K-function methods to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of hotspots of residential burglaries. The results show that, both spatial and spatiotemporal clustering exists. The hotspots were relatively stable over time. The space–time clustering, however, shows significant concentrations both in space and over time. In addition, analytic results show significant effects of distance decay in terms of occurrences of burglary incidents along the spatial and temporal dimensions. Moreover, findings from the research provide critical information on the space–time rhythm of crime, and therefore can be utilized in crime prevention practice. Finally, the implications of the findings and limitations are discussed.     

基于时空临近重复效应的犯罪热点特征及成因分析——以北京市抢劫案件为例

时空临近重复效应是犯罪活动的一种重要时空特征。为深入研究犯罪热点的特征及其形成原因,论文以北京市内城六区2012—2014年抢劫案件为例,通过核密度估计、时空临近重复计算及定义时空临近重复案件链等方法分析了犯罪热点的案件构成,并从犯罪人因素和环境因素等方面对犯罪热点内的案件特征结构进行了分析。结果表明：北京市内城六区的抢劫案件存在有“a”“b”“c”三个主要的空间热点,并且热点内的大部分案件均具有显著的时空临近重复效应;其中热点“a”位于双井、劲松一带,热点“c”位于南四环大红门桥一带,且2个热点内案件的犯罪人特征在一致性程度上高于环境类特征,表明热点的形成源于犯罪人在热点区域内重复作案的可能性较大;而热点“b”位于东南三环的分钟寺地区,热点内案件的环境类特征在一致性程度上高于犯罪人特征,表明该热点的形成为不同犯罪人在热点区域内集中作案的可能性较高。研究对警务部门开展针对性的犯罪打击和防控有一定的支撑作用。     

Understanding the spatial distribution of crime in hot crime areas

Hot crime areas are always targeted for police patrol to deter crimes. While much research has studied the distribution patterns of hot crime areas, research on the spatial distribution of crime within hot crime areas remains limited. Using burglary records in a large Chinese city, the ‘hottest’ place with the highest crime density was located using two spatial temporal kernel density estimation methods. The results indicated that the majority of crime within hot crime areas was concentrated within a small area distant from the hot area's center. These results provide a micro view of crime distribution within hot crime areas. Our analysis indicates that the results will not be affected by the methods adopted in identification of hot areas. This research is expected to improve the efficiency of police patrols.     

Modeling typhoon- and earthquake-induced landslides in a mountainous watershed using logistic regression

Landslides can be caused by storms and earthquakes. Most logistic regression models proposed in recent years have been targeted at rainfall-induced landslides. In areas such as Taiwan, where landslides can be triggered by typhoons (tropical cyclones) and earthquakes, a rainfall-induced model is insufficient because it provides only a partial explanation of landslide occurrence and overlooks the potential effect of earthquakes on typhoon-triggered landslides. This study used landslides triggered by a major earthquake and a typhoon prior to the earthquake to develop an earthquake-induced model and a typhoon-induced model. The models were then validated by using landslides triggered by three typhoons after the earthquake. According to the results, typhoon-triggered landslides tended to be near stream channels and earthquake-triggered landslides were more likely to be near ridge lines. Moreover, a major earthquake could still affect the locations of typhoon-triggered landslides 6 years after the earthquake. This study therefore demonstrates that an earthquake-induced model both sheds light on the environmental factors for triggering landslides, and augments a rainfall-induced model in its predictive capability in areas such as Taiwan.     

Finding work in 2001: urban–rural contrasts across England in employment rates and local job availability

Early results from the 2001 census of England allow a preliminary analysis of joblessness. People in the prime working ages (25–49) are more likely to be in work than those in their 50s, but the differences are quite subtle: in particular, men without qualifications are not much more likely to be in work when they are younger, despite the suggestions that too many men cease working in their 50s. The evidence supports the view that there is a national shortfall of demand for labour, that the low-skilled are the least able to compete for scarce jobs, and older people are the most likely to be unqualified. Moreover there is a strong spatial clustering of areas where job availability has declined or grown least, undermining the government's claim that there were often available jobs near to concentrations of people without work.     

交互作用视角下人口流动性与住房类型对城市入室盗窃空间格局的影响

已有研究发现社区住房类型对城市入室盗窃的空间格局有重要影响,但鲜有学者探讨位于不同人口流动程度社区环境中的不同住房对入室盗窃影响的差异。本研究以中国东南沿海城市ZG市为例,基于日常活动和社会失序等理论,以社区为分析单元,利用入室盗窃警情数据、第六次人口普查数据和兴趣点数据（Point of Interest, POI）,运用空间滞后负二项回归方法,分析人口流动性与住房类型的交互作用对入室盗窃空间格局的影响。结果表明：人口流动性高的社区入室盗窃率较高;自建住房比例对入室盗窃率有显著的正向影响,原公有住房比例和商品房比例则呈显著的抑制作用;交互变量的结果发现,人口流动性与不同类型住房变量的交互作用存在差异,其中,人口流动性与自建住房、经济适用房、原公有住房的交互变量对入室盗窃的发生具有显著的促进作用,而与商品房的交互对入室盗窃的影响并不显著。说明在探讨不同类型住房与入室盗窃的关系时,应重视其所在社区的人口流动程度的影响。     

A Social–Ecological Systems Approach to Assessing Conservation and Fisheries Outcomes in Fijian Locally Managed Marine Areas

Locally managed marine areas (LMMAs) are often recommended as a strategy to achieve conservation and fisheries management, though few studies have evaluated their performance against these objectives. We assessed the effectiveness of eight periodically harvested closures (PHCs), the most common form of management within Fijian LMMAs, focusing on two outcomes: protection of resource units and biodiversity conservation. Of the eight PHCs, only one provided biodiversity benefits, whereas three were moderately successful in protecting resource units (targeted fish biomass). Protection of resource units was more likely when PHCs were harvested less frequently, less recently, and when total fish biomass in open areas was lower. Our findings further suggest that monitoring, enforcement, and clearly defined boundaries are critical, less frequent harvesting regimes are advised, and culturally appropriate management incentives are needed. Although PHCs have some potential to protect resource units, they are not recommended as a single strategy for broad-scale biodiversity conservation.     

The space/time behaviour of dwelling burglars: Finding near repeat patterns in serial offender data

Whilst analysis of crime for tactical and strategic reasons within the criminal justice arena has now become an established need, predictive analysis of crime remains, and probably always will be, a goal to be desired. Opening a window on this over the last 2 decades, prominent research from academia has focused on the phenomenon of repeat victimisation and more recently ‘near repeat’ victimisation, both firmly grounded in the geography of crime. Somewhat limited to the establishment of near repeat behavioural patterns in whole area data, these can be utilised for crime prevention responses on a local scale. Research reported here however, explores the phenomenon through the examination of serial offending by individual offenders to establish if such spatio-temporal patterns are apparent in the spatial behavioural patterns of the individual burglar, and if so how they may be defined and therefore utilised on a micro rather than macro scale. It is hypothesised that offenders' responsible for more than one series of offences will display consistency across their crime series within time and distance parameters for their closest offences in space. Results improve upon current knowledge concerning near repeat offending being the actions of common offenders. Testing of the extracted data indicates that offenders maintain personal boundaries of ‘closeness’ in time and space even when actions are separated by significant time spans, creating stylised behavioural signatures appertaining to their use of and movement through space when offending.     

Can designation without regulation preserve land in the face of urbanization? A case study of ZNIEFFs in the Paris region

Preservation through legal protection of natural areas is costly and limited in its extent. A much cheaper strategy to preserve natural areas could be to simply identify areas of ecological interest and let it be known. A survey was launched in France to identify such areas (called ZNIEFF) in the early 1980s. Since then, municipalities have had to account for ZNIEFFs in their formal land planning schemes, though they are not under any obligation to protect them. In this study, we tested the effectiveness of ZNIEFFs as a conservation tool in an area of high growth near Paris. Using GAM modeling, we compared the rate of urbanization inside and outside ZNIEFFs in the 17 years following designation, accounting for the share of farmland, the overall rate of urbanization and ZNIEFF proportion in the municipalities, and also accounting for demography and physical constraints (hydromorphy and slope). Overall, there was less urbanization inside ZNIEFFs, but this varied depending on the context. Surprisingly, they were better preserved in areas of more intense urbanization. This effect was increased if farmland area was already reduced (<30% of the municipality area). In contrast, when farmland was still predominant and urbanization rates were lower, ZNIEFFs tended to be more urbanized than the areas outside. This shows that the value of remnant natural areas varies considerably, perhaps as a function of the value attributed to farmland.     

Concentrations of railway metal theft and the locations of scrap-metal dealers

Metal theft has become a substantial crime problem in many areas. In response, several countries have introduced legislation to regulate scrap-metal recycling yards. However, at present there is little evidence to support this use of the market reduction approach (MRA) in preventing metal theft. The present study sought to test the underlying assumption of the MRA that the presence of a market for stolen property (in this case provided by scrap yards) drives thefts in a local area. This study tested for a spatial association between the locations of scrap yards and those of metal thefts. The density of industry, local burglary rate and road-accessibility of an area were controlled for. Metal thefts from railway lines in England were shown to be significantly more common in areas with more scrap-metal yards, high road accessibility and high population density. The results support the use of the MRA in relation to metal theft.     

社区环境对入室盗窃和室外盗窃影响的对比分析——以ZG市ZH半岛为例

社区环境的基本属性是影响城市犯罪的重要因素,而这两类犯罪相似的空间形态受社区环境哪些因素的影响及作用方式如何未探寻及验证。因此,本文结合日常活动理论、CPTED理论、可防卫空间等理论,以中国东南沿海地区ZG市ZH半岛为例,融合多源异构时空数据,利用偏最小二乘法,检验社区尺度下的建成环境和社会环境,对入室盗窃和室外盗窃的影响进行对比分析。研究发现：① ZH半岛内具有一定的规律性特征,即在建成环境背景下,入室盗窃的影响因素相对集中,而室外盗窃的影响因素较为分散;② 社会环境和建成环境对两类犯罪的影响及作用力存在着相对的共性和差异性,其共性主要表现在人口密度（-）、青少年人口比重（+）、公交站点密度（-）以及到主中心的距离（-）对入室盗窃和室外盗窃的发生都有显著的影响,且作用力方向一致;差异性主要体现在道路网络密度（-）、零售商业密度（+）和餐饮住宿密度（+）是影响室外盗窃发生的主要因子,而居民文化程度（-）显著影响入室盗窃的发生。研究结果的引申,可为社区层面的入室盗窃和室外盗窃的联合防控提供一些参考。     

SPATIAL PATTERNS OF FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN CHINA'S CITIES, 1980-1989

In the 1980s, foreign investment in China's cities experienced a northeastward movement from the southern coast to the central coast, and began to penetrate into inland cities, Foreign investment clustered in coastal delta areas and along the Changliang and Huanghe rivers. To understand these spatial patterns, a linear regression model is established. Cities with better power supplies, seaports, water transportation, communication, and investment incentives provided more favorable locations for foreign investment. Agglomerated cities had a better chance of attracting foreign investment than widely separated cities, with larger cities not necessarily attracting more foreign investment. Regression residuals also are analyzed for insights into spatial trends of foreign investment. Urban foreign investment in the near future probably will continue to accumulate in the coastal delta areas. Provincial capitals likely will be favorable locations for foreign investment that will further penetrate from the coastal areas into interior regions.     

Influences of forest roads on the spatial patterns of human- and lightning-caused wildfire ignitions

Understanding the spatial patterns of fire ignitions and fire sizes is essential for understanding fire regimes. Although previous studies have documented associations of human-caused fire ignitions with road corridors, less consideration has been given to understanding the multiple influences of roads on the fire regime at a broader landscape-scale. Therefore, we examined the difference between lightning- and human-caused fire ignitions in relation to forest road corridors and other anthropogenic and biophysical factors in the eastern Cascade Mountains of Washington State. We used geographical information systems and case-control logistic regression models to assess the relative importance of these explanatory variables that influence the locations of lightning versus human-caused ignitions.We found that human-caused ignitions were concentrated close to roads, in high road density areas, and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI). In contrast, lightning-caused ignitions were concentrated in low road density areas, away from WUI, and in low population density areas. Lightning-caused ignitions were also associated with fuels and climatic and topographic factors. A weak but significant relationship between lightning-caused fire and proximity to gravel roads may be related to fuels near roads or to bias in detection and reporting of lightning-caused fires near roads. Although most small fires occurred in roaded areas, they accounted for only a small proportion of the total burned area. In contrast, the large fires in roadless and wilderness areas accounted for most of the burned area. Thus, from the standpoint of the total area burned, the effect of forest roads on restricting fire size is likely greater than the impact of roads on increasing fire ignitions. The results of our study suggest that roads and their edge effect area should be more widely acknowledged as a unique type of landscape effect in fire research and management.     

入室盗窃多尺度地理因子分析

选取N市作为研究区域,以该市2013年全年的入室盗窃案件作为研究对象。将研究区域内入室盗窃与地理因子在不同空间尺度上进行关联性对比分析。首先,从环境犯罪学理论和现有犯罪地理特征研究两方面出发,分析现有研究中的尺度依赖性。每一套环境犯罪学理论均有其适用的空间尺度,在犯罪地理特征研究中会有相应的地理因子与之关联;其次,引入似不相关回归模型获取入室盗窃与地理因子在小区、街区、社区、街道以及区等多个空间尺度上的关联性。并用瓦尔德检验来测试各个关联系数之间差异的显著性。实验结果表明,随着尺度的变化,有些地理因子与入室盗窃的关联性并未变化,有些则发生了显著变化。这些变化可用不同尺度的犯罪地理学理论进行解释;最后,将多个尺度地理因子反演入室盗窃空间分布的结果进行综合,并将之与单一尺度的反演结果进行比较。结果证明,与单一尺度的地理因子反演犯罪空间分布的精度相比,利用多个尺度地理因子解释犯罪空间分布的精度更高。研究表明：在犯罪地理学研究中,环境犯罪学理论、地理因子分析以及犯罪空间分布反演均存在尺度依赖性。综合多个尺度的结果进行分析,不仅有利于准确认识犯罪的地理因子及其对应理论,对于犯罪反演精度也有所提高。     

基于多层次模型的广州门禁小区家庭入室盗窃环境影响分析

基于环境设计预防犯罪理论（CPTED）和社会失序理论,利用2012年10―12月在广州门禁小区进行的大规模入户调查数据,采用多层次回归模型从社区内部环境角度对广州门禁小区家庭的入室盗窃受害情况及其发生的环境机理进行研究。通过5个多层次回归模型的对比分析发现：家庭被盗情况主要受到家庭的住房特征和人口特征的影响,小区变量对家庭变量有非常重要的调节作用。住房特征、公共空间使用率、家庭人口特征和小区的正式控制机构失效度对家庭是否被盗有着非常显著的影响;环境形象和人口流动性、小区开放度和功能混合度通过对家庭特征的间接影响而影响家庭的被盗情况。