社区环境对入室盗窃和室外盗窃影响的对比分析——以ZG市ZH半岛为例

社区环境的基本属性是影响城市犯罪的重要因素,而这两类犯罪相似的空间形态受社区环境哪些因素的影响及作用方式如何未探寻及验证。因此,本文结合日常活动理论、CPTED理论、可防卫空间等理论,以中国东南沿海地区ZG市ZH半岛为例,融合多源异构时空数据,利用偏最小二乘法,检验社区尺度下的建成环境和社会环境,对入室盗窃和室外盗窃的影响进行对比分析。研究发现：① ZH半岛内具有一定的规律性特征,即在建成环境背景下,入室盗窃的影响因素相对集中,而室外盗窃的影响因素较为分散;② 社会环境和建成环境对两类犯罪的影响及作用力存在着相对的共性和差异性,其共性主要表现在人口密度（-）、青少年人口比重（+）、公交站点密度（-）以及到主中心的距离（-）对入室盗窃和室外盗窃的发生都有显著的影响,且作用力方向一致;差异性主要体现在道路网络密度（-）、零售商业密度（+）和餐饮住宿密度（+）是影响室外盗窃发生的主要因子,而居民文化程度（-）显著影响入室盗窃的发生。研究结果的引申,可为社区层面的入室盗窃和室外盗窃的联合防控提供一些参考。

Comparisons of the community environment effects on burglary and outdoor-theft: A case study of ZH peninsula in ZG city

Burglary and outdoor-theft are two frequently studied types of crime. Yet no comprehensive comparisons between their spatial distributions and associating factors in Chinese cities are available to this day. Therefore, drawing on routine activities theory, crime prevention through environmental design (CPTED) and defensible space, utilizing multi-source heterogeneous spatio-temporal data of ZH peninsula, ZG city in southern China, this study aims to examine the effect of the built environment and social environment of neighborhoods on burglary and outdoor-theft, as well as comparative analysis between the two crime types. Results suggest that there are some regularities in ZH peninsula, which means under the background of built environment, the influences of burglary are relatively concentrated, while the influences of outdoor-theft are more dispersed. There exist some relative commonalities and differences in the fact that the social environment and built environment influence and act on burglary and outdoor-theft. On the one hand, the population density, the proportion of juvenile, the density of bus stops and the distance to the city center what show significant impact on the occurrence of burglary and outdoor-theft. What's more, their directions of forces are consistent. On the other hand, the density of road network, the density of retail business, and the density of catering and accommodation are the dominant factor of outdoor-theft. Meanwhile, the education level of residents is the significant factor of burglary. The extension of the results may well provide references for associated prevention and control specific to burglary and outdoor-theft in the communities.