地理学视角下犯罪者行为研究进展

犯罪地理学以社会问题为导向,关注犯罪现象的格局、过程与机理,沿着“揭示问题、服务安全、解决问题”的思路,去破解复杂的社会难题,并在公共安全和犯罪防控领域贡献力量。本文基于地理学视角,从犯罪出行、犯罪空间决策、重复犯罪三大研究主题出发,综述了国内外犯罪者行为的研究进展。结果表明,国外研究取得了较多成果,如：①犯罪出行方面发现了就近掠夺和外出犯罪的空间模式;不同犯罪类型的出行距离存在显著差异;以及犯罪出行距离受犯罪者个体特征、地理特征、犯罪收益和情感因素的影响。②犯罪空间决策受经济因素、社会因素以及犯罪者空间意识的影响。③重复犯罪存在时空聚集性和时空临近性。国内研究主要集中在国外理论与经验引介,犯罪时空分布、形成机理与空间防控,以及犯罪模拟与预测方面,而地理学视角下犯罪者行为研究尚处于初始阶段,有许多空白亟需填补。总体而言,在犯罪者研究领域,仍存在以下3点不足：①在犯罪出行方面,综合的视角不多;②在犯罪空间决策方面,尚未涉及犯罪空间决策的时间差异及形成机制;③在重复犯罪方面,尚未考虑过去的犯罪活动和经验。最后,论文从视角、内容、方法及应用上提出未来的研究重点：注重综合性视角的实证分析;开展针对犯罪团伙的研究;合理利用大数据分析犯罪者行为的规律、过程和机理,避免导致推理错误;注重理论研究成果的转化,满足国家社会治安的重大需求,并提升犯罪地理学的学科价值。     

Modelling three‐dimensional geoscientific fields with the Voronoi diagram and its dual

Fields as found in the geosciences have properties that are not usually found in other disciplines: the phenomena studied are often three‐dimensional (3D), they tend to change continuously over time, and the collection of samples to study the phenomena is problematic, which often results in highly anisotropic distributions of samples. In the geographical information system (GIS) community, raster structures (voxels or octrees) are the most popular solutions, but, as we show in this paper, they have shortcomings for modelling and analysing 3D geoscientific fields. As an alternative to using rasters, we propose a new spatial model based on the Voronoi diagram (VD) and its dual the Delaunay tetrahedralisation (DT), and argue that they have many advantages over other tessellations. We discuss the main properties of the 3D VD/DT, present some GIS operations that are greatly simplified when the VD/DT is used, and, to analyse two or more fields, we also present a variant of the map algebra framework where all the operations are performed directly on VDs. The usefulness of this Voronoi‐based spatial model is demonstrated with a series of potential applications.     

2000年以来中外犯罪地理研究进展回顾与展望

以“Web of Science^TM核心合集”和CNKI核心文献库为数据源,运用CiteSpace软件进行文献计量分析,从发文时间、地区分布、学科分布、研究机构、关键词共现与高被引文献等方面,总结比较了2000年以来中外犯罪地理研究进展,并展望了未来的研究趋势。结果发现：1）国内外犯罪地理发文量整体呈现持续增长态势,美国发文量首位度明显。学科分布国外较为广泛,国内相对集中,且存在较大发展空间。研究机构之间的合作网络国外较强,国内机构联系较弱,后续研究力量正处于培育发展阶段。2）不同时期国内外研究关注的热点不同：国外侧重于暴力犯罪、恐怖主义犯罪、因种族歧视和性别歧视等引发的多类型犯罪研究,从微观到宏观,涉及地区、国家甚至全球层面;国内聚焦于城市社区“两抢一盗”犯罪、省域拐卖儿童犯罪和毒品犯罪等类型,微观和宏观并举,实证案例研究逐渐增多。3）随着多学科的交叉融合发展,国内外犯罪地理发展势头良好。犯罪分布模式、空间防控对策与犯罪风险模拟仍是当下较为活跃的研究议题,“3S”技术开发和大数据应用将成为犯罪地理研究的两条并行趋势线。未来需要以综合性思维审视犯罪地理环境,持续关注犯罪地理研究的潜在领域。同时,信息技术发展与计量模型应用为犯罪地理带来新契机,必须立足于当下国际社会环境,加强个人、组织和团体机构之间的研究合作,交流和分享经验成果,探索多样化的犯罪防控模式,并采取全球合作的方式应对区域所面临的犯罪挑战。     

四川省拐卖儿童犯罪的时空演变过程及影响因素分析

拐卖儿童犯罪给受害者带来身心创伤、给家庭带来巨大悲痛和长期困扰,已成为社会和学界关注的焦点问题。该领域犯罪地理学视角的研究兴起较晚,且主要侧重宏观整体分析,当前亟需聚焦高发源地和重点人群作精细解析。为此,论文针对中国拐卖犯罪重灾源区四川省,综合运用数理统计、空间分析、文本分析、案例分析等方法探究四川省拐卖儿童犯罪的时空演变过程与影响因素。研究发现：① 数量上,被拐男童明显多于女童,被拐儿童主要来自乡村,虽呈现1~6岁和14~17岁的“双峰”型特征,但整体趋向低龄化。② 时间上,犯罪年际分布大致呈倒“V”型波动态势,高发期为1981—2000年;犯罪年内分布集中于夏半年,周内分布周末高发,日期分布每月1日的被拐儿童数量最多。③ 空间上,存在一个被拐高发区和多个被拐次高发区;县域尺度上的犯罪格局呈现“高—高”和“低—低”聚集;随着时间的变化,拐出热点区不断向南部和东部蔓延;宏观贩运路径上,向中东部地区分散拐入,华北和华南是重点拐入的“南北两汇”。④ 对1981—2000年犯罪高发期的原因解析发现,受教育水平与城乡收入差距是影响拐卖儿童犯罪的主导因素。     

The spatial stability of alcohol outlets and crime in post‐disaster Christchurch,New Zealand

The devastating Canterbury Earthquakes of 2010 and 2011 left an indelible mark on the city of Christchurch. The social and economic upheaval that immediately followed the Earthquakes has, in time, been replaced with a period of rebuild and transformation. In this study we investigate the effects that the Canterbury Earthquakes had on two important and inter‐related phenomena in the city: alcohol availability and crime. More specifically, we investigate how alcohol outlets and crime across six different categories changed in magnitude and spatial distribution pre‐ (end‐2009) and post‐ (end‐2014) earthquake. We do this using a variety of geospatial techniques including a relatively new method: the spatial point pattern test which allows for the identification of changes in spatial patterns at the local level. Results indicate that both alcohol outlets and crime have decreased in magnitude since the Canterbury Earthquakes. Using the spatial point pattern test we found statistically significant differences in spatial point patterns for both alcohol outlets and all crime types pre‐ to post‐earthquake. The similarity in the differences of the spatial distributions of alcohol outlets and crime provides a first empirical clue of their potential association in the city post‐earthquake.     

Geography of crime in a Brazilian context: an application of social disorganization theory

Geography of crime research dates back to the early 1800s, most of which in English and in the context of the United States and Europe, but with a growing and significant literature studying the developing world. We contribute to this literature through an application of social disorganization theory in a Latin American context: Campinas, Brazil. We consider a number of property and violent crime types using census tracts as the spatial unit of analysis. Implementing a spatial regression method, we find support for social disorganization theory, but not as strong as similar studies in Europe and North America. However, because of the context of Campinas, Brazil, a different understanding of the local conditions proves to be important for understanding the geography of crime in this context. The implications of these results are discussed in the context of theoretical developments as well as crime prevention initiatives.     

Spatial Patterns of Larceny and Aggravated Assault in Miami–Dade County, 2007–2015

The combination of crime mapping and geospatial analysis methods has enabled law enforcement agencies to develop more proactive methods of targeting crime-prone neighborhoods based on spatial patterns, such as hot spots and spatial proximity to specific points of interest. In this article, we investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of the neighborhood crimes of aggravated assault and larceny in 297 census tracts in Miami–Dade County from 2007 to 2015. We use emerging hot spot analysis (EHSA) to identify the spatial patterns of emerging, persistent, continuous, and sporadic hot spots. In addition, we use geographically weighted regression to analyze the spatial clustering effects of sociodemographic variables, poverty rate, median age, and ethnic diversity. The hot spots for larceny are much more diffused than those for aggravated assaults, which exhibit clustering in the north over Liberty City and Miami Gardens and in the south near Homestead, and the ethnic heterogeneity index has a moderate and positive effect on the incidence of both larceny and aggravated assaults. The findings suggest that law enforcement can better target prevention programs for violent versus property crime using geospatial analyses. Additionally, the ethnic concentration of neighborhoods influences crime differently in neighborhoods of different socioeconomic status, and future studies should account for spatial patterns when estimating conventional regression models.     

犯罪热点时空分布研究方法综述

犯罪在地理时空内并不是均匀分布的,而是表现出明显的时空聚集特性,这种聚集性常用“犯罪热点”表述.基于对犯罪热点的理解,从犯罪热点时空分布模式、犯罪热点成因分析以及犯罪热点时空转移及预测等3 个方面总结了当前国内外犯罪热点时空分布相关研究方法的进展.最后,对该领域研究进行了总结与展望.总体上,国内相关研究较少,尚需进一步结合中国国情,提出适用方法.另外,也需要通过相关犯罪理论的深入研究以及其他领域研究方法的借鉴,实现犯罪热点时空分布研究方法的突破与创新.     

Leveraging parallel spatio-temporal computing for crime analysis in large datasets: analyzing trends in near-repeat phenomenon of crime in cities

ABSTRACT

Crime often clusters in space and time. Near-repeat patterns improve understanding of crime communicability and their space–time interactions. Near-repeat analysis requires extensive computing resources for the assessment of statistical significance of space–time interactions. A computationally intensive Monte Carlo simulation-based approach is used to evaluate the statistical significance of the space-time patterns underlying near-repeat events. Currently available software for identifying near-repeat patterns is not scalable for large crime datasets. In this paper, we show how parallel spatial programming can help to leverage spatio-temporal simulation-based analysis in large datasets. A parallel near-repeat calculator was developed and a set of experiments were conducted to compare the newly developed software with an existing implementation, assess the performance gain due to parallel computation, test the scalability of the software to handle large crime datasets and assess the utility of the new software for real-world crime data analysis. Our experimental results suggest that, efficiently designed parallel algorithms that leverage high-performance computing along with performance optimization techniques could be used to develop software that are scalable with large datasets and could provide solutions for computationally intensive statistical simulation-based approaches in crime analysis.     

Understanding the spatial distribution of crime in hot crime areas

Hot crime areas are always targeted for police patrol to deter crimes. While much research has studied the distribution patterns of hot crime areas, research on the spatial distribution of crime within hot crime areas remains limited. Using burglary records in a large Chinese city, the ‘hottest’ place with the highest crime density was located using two spatial temporal kernel density estimation methods. The results indicated that the majority of crime within hot crime areas was concentrated within a small area distant from the hot area's center. These results provide a micro view of crime distribution within hot crime areas. Our analysis indicates that the results will not be affected by the methods adopted in identification of hot areas. This research is expected to improve the efficiency of police patrols.     

加拿大爱得蒙顿市犯罪问题的地理研究*

运用GIS技术和回归分析方法,分析加拿大爱得蒙顿市各类犯罪的空间分布规律。结果发现：城市犯罪分布的空间差异异常明显,城市内部存在少数极端的犯罪高发区;犯罪的空间分布遵循距离衰减规律,表现为距城市中心越近的地区犯罪发生密度越高,距城市中心越远的地区犯罪密度越低;犯罪发生密度与居住人口密度成正相关,即居住人口密度越高,越容易诱发犯罪,但不同类型的犯罪与居住人口密度的关联程度不一样;不同用地性质的区域犯罪发生密度存在明显差异,在各类用地中,商业区为城市犯罪的高发区。     

犯罪地理国际研究进展

犯罪地理学是犯罪学和地理学研究的交叉学科。近30 年来, 随着GIS 技术的发展, 国外犯罪地理学在研究内容和研究方法上发生了许多转变。从5 个方面简述了国外犯罪地理研究的发展:①解释理论, 简述了不同理论的不足及发展;②犯罪活动空间分布, 全局关系和局域关系上犯罪活动空间分布的判别和可视化;③计量模型, 空间依赖和空间异质效应的计量;④虚拟犯罪, 犯罪活动预测的地理计算;⑤研究尺度, 从大尺度到小尺度的转变。最后总结了地理学对犯罪学研究的贡献, 并提出了国外的发展对国内研究的借鉴。     

接触型与非接触型犯罪时空稳定性对比及其联合防控——以盗窃和电信网络诈骗为例

近年来,以盗窃为代表的接触型犯罪和以电信网络诈骗为代表的非接触型犯罪均呈多发态势,严重影响社会治安稳定。已有研究对不同类型犯罪分布模式的时空稳定性关注仍不够,且未能提出不同类型犯罪的空间联合防控策略。本文以ZG市HT区为例,以社区为分析单元,运用核密度估计、时空跃迁测度法等方法,对比分析2017年盗窃犯罪和电信网络诈骗犯罪的时空分布特征及其空间分布模式的月度稳定性,并从犯罪防控角度改进时空跃迁测度法,结合二阶聚类法识别两类犯罪联合防控空间类型。研究发现：① 两类犯罪时空稳定性差异大,盗窃犯罪的空间分布模式稳定,月度变化小;而电信网络诈骗犯罪空间稳定性整体波动起伏大,月度变化较大;② 识别出两类犯罪的四种联合防控空间类型,分别是“两类犯罪无需防控社区”“两类犯罪邻域防控社区”“盗窃犯罪热点防控、电信网络诈骗犯罪无需防控社区”“盗窃犯罪连片防控、电信网络诈骗综合防控社区”。该研究有助于了解接触型犯罪和非接触型犯罪时空特征的共性和差异性,给警务联合防控提供决策支持。     

中国犯罪地理研究述评

当前社会犯罪问题严峻,以空间为视角的犯罪地理研究因其独特的综合性在犯罪防控中的作用日益凸显。以中国知网、维普和万方三大数据库中获得的期刊文献为基础,对中国犯罪地理的研究状况进行综合评述。在对国内五大研究主题进行回顾的基础上,围绕“研究主题”和“研究领域”两方面,分析了中国犯罪地理学的发展动态。总体来看,在过去的25 年中,中国犯罪地理研究逐渐起步,发展趋势良好,已经吸引了来自地理学、法学与警务管理、城市规划、应用数学等诸多领域的学者关注。尽管研究焦点各有侧重,但始终注重对国外研究和实践经验的引入,并提出了基于综合分析、情境预防、CPTED、PGIS的诸多防控对策。在犯罪时空分布特征、犯罪发生诱因等方面,研究范围宽广,但研究深度有待加强。未来中国犯罪地理学发展任重而道远。学界应充分重视城市犯罪与农村犯罪、犯罪与微观环境的互动关系、犯罪主体的行为空间等研究,并积极探索虚拟犯罪模拟新技术的应用。     

微观尺度下毒品犯罪时空分布及成因分析——以SZ市NH、DM街道为例

毒品犯罪是全球共同关注的犯罪问题,许多学者从不同的专业领域开展了大量研究。已有文献对毒品犯罪的成因进行分析,由于数据的局限性,较少从微观尺度对毒品犯罪热点的时空分布进行研究。论文以SZ市NH、DM街道内社区为例,基于毒品犯罪案件数据,利用探索性数据分析和时空扫描识别毒品犯罪时空热点分布,结合用地类型、动态人流量等数据定量分析毒品犯罪案件的时空分布影响因素。研究结果如下：① 毒品犯罪主要分布在商业发达地区和城中村地区,且城中村的毒品犯罪时空热点分布的起始时间较商业发达地区更早,影响范围也更大;② 毒品犯罪在不同用地类型分布是不均匀的,其中“住宿旅游娱乐”“商业百货批发零售”“餐饮经营服务品牌”3类用地类型与毒品犯罪具有高度相关性;③ 人流量高热区的面积占比与毒品犯罪的发生有一定的相关性,高热区面积占比大于5%或为0时,能够抑制毒品犯罪的发生;高热区面积占比在0~5%之间,能够促进毒品犯罪的发生。     

ZG市街头抢劫者作案地选择及其影响因素研究

以往关于作案地选择的研究,缺乏考虑不同属性群体间的空间差异。以中国ZG市为例,利用离散空间选择模型,基于不同年龄属性的视角,进行街头抢劫者作案地选择及影响因素的对比分析,并据此提出犯罪防控建议。研究发现：① 不同年龄的街头抢劫者作案地选择存在显著的空间差异。即少年抢劫者趋向在劳动密集型产业集聚区和中小学密集区作案,而年轻的成年抢劫者仅趋向于劳动密集型产业集聚区,但成年抢劫者的作案地却偏向于客运站所在社区及其周边地区。② 年龄相关的活动节点、周围人口的监护作用和青少年人口比例是形成这种空间差异的主要因素。研究结果对犯罪防控与社会治理具有重要的参考意义,如：① 在青少年抢劫者频繁作案的劳动密集型产业集聚区,调控网吧、酒吧等年龄相关活动节点的数量。② 在成年抢劫者作案密集的客运站及其周边社区,规划一定数量周围人口的持续存在,以发挥出更好的监护作用。③ 在青少年人口比例较高的社区,通过问题青少年的摸底调查,加强精准引导与帮扶。论文首次验证了不同年龄的街头抢劫者作案地选择差异及成因,并在理论上弥补了犯罪者作案地选择缺乏细分人群的不足。     

贵州省拐卖儿童犯罪的多维时空格局及影响因素研究

拐卖儿童犯罪作为一种影响恶劣的社会现象,已引起公众和学界的广泛关注。基于犯罪地理学视角的相关研究起步较晚且侧重宏观分析,当前亟须聚焦犯罪热区作精细解析。本文以中国拐卖犯罪主要源区贵州省为研究区,采用文本分析、数理统计、空间计量等方法,揭示被拐儿童的社会人口学特征及拐卖儿童犯罪的多维时空格局与影响因素。结果表明：① 1~6岁男童为核心受害对象,拐卖导致的儿童迁移以城乡间交叉流动为主。② 犯罪在1944—2018年间呈“中段高发、首尾低发”态势,空间上集中于贵州西北半壁,尤以贵阳为最,微观地点上高发于人员流动频繁的开放型空间。③ 犯罪路径以“黔入东部”和“川滇入黔”为主,以省内跨市流动为辅。④ 犯罪主要受人口自然变动、生育政策、流动人口和经济发展水平等的影响。     

Contingent Urban Geographies of Violent Crime: Racial Segregation and the Impact of Public Housing in Atlanta

Neighborhood variations in crime incidence rates are most commonly interpreted through the lens of social disorganization theory, or a "communities and crime" perspective. This approach typically articulates explanation for crime by focusing on the characteristics of communities—a unitary scale most commonly equated with neighborhoods. We argue that this perspective fails to recognize the importance of broader urban geographic contexts, and offer an extension that sees geographically contingent processes functioning at multiple scales simultaneously. We develop this perspective applied to the "spread effects" of public housing on violent crime in surrounding neighborhoods: these spread effects are conditioned by the nature of the urban contexts through which they operate. Specifically, deeply divided and racialized patterns of residential segregation at least partially define the contexts that condition public housing's effect on crime. We examine our perspective using early 1990s block group data for the City of Atlanta and find substantial evidence in support of our perspective. In particular, we find that Techwood Homes, the nation's first federally constructed public housing project, exerted different geographic spread effects in predominantly White than in predominantly Black portions of the city. By failing to recognize the complexity and contingency of public housing's geographic effect on crime in surrounding neighborhoods, previous approaches substantially overestimate crime in White areas, and underestimate crime in Black areas.     

Temporal stability of model parameters in crime rate analysis: An empirical examination

Two common practices in modeling of crime when crime data is available for multiple years are using single-year crime data corresponding to census data and taking the average of crime rate (or count) over multiple years. Current theoretical and empirical literature provides little, if any, rationale in support of either practice. Averaging multiple years is purported to reduce heterogeneity and minimize the measurement error in the year-to-year emergence of crime. However, it is unclear how useful the analysis of averaged and smoothed data is for revealing the relationship between crimes and socio-demographic and economic characteristics of every single year. In order to more clearly understand these two approaches, this paper applies a seemingly unrelated regression model to assess the temporal stability of model parameters. The model accounts for spatial autocorrelation among crime rates and social disorganization variables at the block group level.     

The Ambient Population and Crime Analysis

This article uses an alternative measure of the population at risk, the ambient population (provided by Oak Ridge National Laboratory), in crime rate calculations. It is shown through a variety of statistical analyses at two different scales of aggregation that this alternatively calculated crime rate is not always related to the conventionally calculated crime rate. The implications of this finding are that past theoretical testing and policy formation might have been based on spurious results, showing the importance of remaining current with the developments of geographic information science technologies and data availability when undertaking a spatial analysis of crime.