微观尺度下毒品犯罪时空分布及成因分析——以SZ市NH、DM街道为例

毒品犯罪是全球共同关注的犯罪问题,许多学者从不同的专业领域开展了大量研究。已有文献对毒品犯罪的成因进行分析,由于数据的局限性,较少从微观尺度对毒品犯罪热点的时空分布进行研究。论文以SZ市NH、DM街道内社区为例,基于毒品犯罪案件数据,利用探索性数据分析和时空扫描识别毒品犯罪时空热点分布,结合用地类型、动态人流量等数据定量分析毒品犯罪案件的时空分布影响因素。研究结果如下：① 毒品犯罪主要分布在商业发达地区和城中村地区,且城中村的毒品犯罪时空热点分布的起始时间较商业发达地区更早,影响范围也更大;② 毒品犯罪在不同用地类型分布是不均匀的,其中“住宿旅游娱乐”“商业百货批发零售”“餐饮经营服务品牌”3类用地类型与毒品犯罪具有高度相关性;③ 人流量高热区的面积占比与毒品犯罪的发生有一定的相关性,高热区面积占比大于5%或为0时,能够抑制毒品犯罪的发生;高热区面积占比在0~5%之间,能够促进毒品犯罪的发生。

Spatiotemporal distribution of drug crimes at micro-scale: Taking NH and DM residential communities in SZ City as an example

Drug crime is a criminal act of common concern in many places of the world. Many scholars have carried out research from different professional fields. The causes of drug-related crimes have been analyzed in the existing literature. Because of the limitations of data, there is little research on the spatial and temporal distribution of drug-related crime hotspots at the micro-scale. This study took NH and DM residential communities in SZ as an example. Based on the data of drug crime cases, this study used exploratory data analysis and spatiotemporal scanning to identify the distribution of hotspots of drug crimes. Then, by combining the spatial data of land use types and dynamic population flow, it quantitatively analyzed the influencing factors of the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of drug crime cases. The results show that: 1) Drug crimes mainly distribute in developed commercial areas and urban villages, and the hotspot distribution of drug crimes in urban villages occurred earlier than in developed commercial areas, and the scope of influence is larger in the former; 2) The distribution of drug crimes in different land types is uneven; the land use types of accommodation, tourism, and entertainment, wholesale and retail commercial department stores, and catering and business services are highly correlated with drug crimes. 3) The proportion of the area in hotspot areas with high flow of people has a certain correlation with the occurrence of drug crimes. When the proportion of hotspot areas is greater than 5% or 0, it can restrain the occurrence of drug-related crimes; when the proportion of hotspot areas is between 0 and 5%, it can promote the occurrence of drug-related crimes.