Rainfall and rainy days trend in Iran

In this study, long-term annual and monthly trends in rainfall amount, number of rainy days and maximum precipitation in 24?h are investigated based on the data collected at 33 synoptic stations in Iran. The statistical significance of trend and climate variability is assessed by the Mann-Kendall test. The Linear trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall test indicate that there are no significant linear trends in monthly rainfall at most of the synoptic stations in Iran. However, the maximum number of stations with negative trends have been observed in April (29 station), and then in May (21 stations) and February (21 stations) and with positive trends in December (26 stations) and July (24 stations). The significant linear trends, with a significant level of 0.05, in annual rainfall have been noticed only at five stations. The monthly number of rainy days does not show any significant linear trend for most areas in Iran. The maximum number of stations with monthly negative trends in rainy days has also been observed in April with the minimum in December. In April, out of 24 stations with negative trends, 12 stations have a significant negative trend. Contrary to that, in October there is no significant linear trend. Most stations have positive trends in annual number of rainy days. Also, the monthly maximum precipitation in 24?h does not show any significant linear trend for most areas in Iran. The maximum number of stations with monthly negative trends in maximum precipitation has also been observed in February with the minimum in December. In spite of that, there are almost no significant precipitation variations in Iran during the last 50-odd years, the tendency of decreasing rainfall amount in April and increasing rainfall amount in December and July could indicate an eventual climate change in this area in the future.     

Shift changes and monotonic trends in autocorrelated temperature series over Iran

Temperature data from 29 synoptic stations in Iran for a period of 40?years (1966–2005) were analyzed to test for the existence of monotonic trends and shift changes in the annual, seasonal, and monthly mean air temperature series using the Mann–Kendall and Mann–Whitney tests. The influences of significant lag-1 serial correlation were eliminated from data by the trend-free pre-whitening method prior to the trend analysis. The magnitude of the temperature trends was derived from the Theil–Sen’s slope estimator. It was found that annual mean air temperature increased at 25 out of the 29 stations, of which 17 stations showed significant monotonic trends. The magnitude of the annual mean air temperature trends averagely was (+)0.224°C per decade. Most of the stations with the significant positive monotonic trends had a significant upward shift change. The analysis indicated that the change point year of the significant upward shift changes was 1972 for the whole stations except the coastal ones. Moreover, the strongest monotonic increasing trends and upward shift changes were observed in summer especially in August and September. The spatial analysis of the mean air temperature trends revealed the highest numbers of significant monotonic trends in the big cities of Iran. These findings provide more insights for better understanding of regional temperature behavior in the study area.     

An investigation of the Iranian climatic changes by considering the precipitation, temperature, and relative humidity parameters

The present study tends to describe the survey of climatic changes in the case of the eastern and central areas of Iran and, to some extent, the northern parts. The monthly and yearly change trends in the minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, relative humidity, and the precipitation were surveyed for 26 synoptic stations in Iran during a 55-year period. The study was carried out by using the ??-Kendall test. The results showed the same temperature changes for the centrally located stations as the eastern and northern ones. Most of the stations in Zagros showed no significant temperature changes. A significant decrease in the precipitation was seen in summer in different stations. Most of the eastern and centrally located stations showed a decrease in relative humidity trend, while this condition was not recorded in Zagros and northern part of Iran. The present results also showed that the upward trend of minimum air temperature had an effect in increasing the mean air temperature in the stations with temperature ascending trend. This effect of minimum temperature was significantly more than that of the maximum temperature, which could be the result of increasing the amount of greenhouse gases and the reflection of received thermal energies, from land through the night. This increase in the temperature and a decrease in relative humidity would cause an increase in the evaporation of the received precipitation.     

Trend analysis of maximum,minimum, and average temperatures in Bangladesh: 1961–2008

The present study is about the analysis of mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures carried out on annual, seasonal, and monthly timescales examining the data from 15 meteorological stations in Bangladesh for the period 1961–2008. Various spatial and statistical tools were used to display and analyze trends in temperature data. ArcGIS was used to produce the spatially distributed temperature data by using Thiessen polygon method. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall test was used to determine whether there is a positive or negative trend in data with their statistical significance. Sen’s method was also used to determine the magnitude of the trends. The results reveal positive trends in annual mean and mean maximum temperatures with 95 % significance. Trend test reveals that the significant positive trend is found in June to November in case of mean maximum temperature, but according to the mean minimum temperature, the situation is different and a significant positive trend was found from November to February. The analysis of the whole record reveals a tendency toward warmer years, with significantly warmer summer periods and slightly colder winters. These warming patterns may have important impacts on energy consumption, water supply, human health, and natural environment in Bangladesh.     

Non-parametric trend analysis of the aridity index for three large arid and semi-arid basins in Iran

Currently, an important scientific challenge that researchers are facing is to gain a better understanding of climate change at the regional scale, which can be especially challenging in an area with low and highly variable precipitation amounts such as Iran. Trend analysis of the medium-term change using ground station observations of meteorological variables can enhance our knowledge of the dominant processes in an area and contribute to the analysis of future climate projections. Generally, studies focus on the long-term variability of temperature and precipitation and to a lesser extent on other important parameters such as moisture indices. In this study the recent 50-year trends (1955–2005) of precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and aridity index (AI) in monthly time scale were studied over 14 synoptic stations in three large Iran basins using the Mann–Kendall non-parametric test. Additionally, an analysis of the monthly, seasonal and annual trend of each parameter was performed. Results showed no significant trends in the monthly time series. However, PET showed significant, mostly decreasing trends, for the seasonal values, which resulted in a significant negative trend in annual PET at five stations. Significant negative trends in seasonal P values were only found at a number of stations in spring and summer and no station showed significant negative trends in annual P. Due to the varied positive and negative trends in annual P and to a lesser extent PET, almost as many stations with negative as positive trends in annual AI were found, indicating that both drying and wetting trends occurred in Iran. Overall, the northern part of the study area showed an increasing trend in annual AI which meant that the region became wetter, while the south showed decreasing trends in AI.     

城市化对固原气温变化趋势的影响

使用宁夏固原与六盘山气象站1971—2010年逐月平均气温、最高气温、最低气温资料以及固原1981年以来的GDP与人口数据,以六盘山为背景分析了城市化对固原气温变化趋势的影响。结果表明：40a来六盘山和固原年与四季平均气温、最低、最高气温均呈显著上升趋势,20世纪80年代比70年代偏高幅度较小,21世纪00年代比前10a偏高幅度最大,最低气温比最高气温、冬季气温比夏季气温、固原比六盘山气温偏高更显著;固原与六盘山气温存在明显的非对称性,且固原的非对称性明显大于六盘山的,冬夏季更突出;城市化影响加速了固原年与四季平均气温、最低气温、年和冬春最高气温的升温,对于气温非对称性变化的形成起主导作用。     

近46年重庆地区气温变化特征分析

利用1961~2006年期间重庆地区的气温资料,对重庆气温变化的特征进行分析。结果表明:近46年,重庆年平均、年平均最高气温都经历了先降温后升温的过程,而且前期1961~1985年的降温趋势和后期1986~2006年的升温趋势都很显著,均通过了0.01的显著性水平检验。而年平均最低气温近46年的整体上升趋势明显,通过了0.01的显著性水平检验。对于重庆平均气温和平均最高气温,在前期降温过程中,春季和夏季的下降趋势显著;而在后期的升温过程中,春季和秋季的增温趋势显著。      

Assessment of climate extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean

Summary Several seasonal and annual climate extreme indices have been calculated and their trends (over 1958 to 2000) analysed to identify possible changes in temperature- and precipitation-related climate extremes over the eastern Mediterranean region. The most significant temperature trends were revealed for summer, where both minimum and maximum temperature extremes show statistically significant warming trends. Increasing trends were also identified for an index of heatwave duration. Negative trends were found for the frequency of cold nights in winter and especially in summer. Precipitation indices highlighted more regional contrasts. The western part of the study region, which comprises the central Mediterranean and is represented by Italian stations, shows significant positive trends towards intense rainfall events and greater amounts of precipitation. In contrast, the eastern half showed negative trends in all precipitation indices indicating drier conditions in recent times. Significant positive trends were revealed for the index of maximum number of consecutive dry days, especially for stations in southern regions, particularly on the islands.Current affiliation: National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece.     

Long-term trend analysis for temperature in the Jinsha River Basin in China

On the basis of the mean annual and seasonal temperatures from 30 meteorological stations in the Jinsha River Basin (JRB) from 1961 to 2008, the temperature trends are analyzed by using Mann–Kendall test and linear trend analysis. There is an increasing trend in mean annual and seasonal temperatures during this period, and the increasing trends in winter seem more significant than those in the other three seasons. The mean annual temperature has increased by 0.0158°C/year during the last 48 years. There are more than 70% of stations exhibiting increasing trends for annual and seasonal temperatures. The increasing trends in the headwater and upper reaches are more dominant than those in the middle and lower reaches. The largest increase magnitude occurred in the low temperature area, while the largest decrease magnitude occurred in the high temperature area. The decreasing trends are mainly characterized for the maximum temperature time series, and summer is the only season showing a slight and insignificant increasing trend. All the time series showed a statistically significant increasing trend at the level of α?=?0.05 for the minimum temperature time series. As a whole, the increasing magnitude of the minimum temperature is significantly greater than the decreasing magnitude of the maximum temperature.     

Mathematical modelling of the annual temperature wave based on monthly mean temperatures,and comparisons between local climate trends at seven Norwegian stations

Summary Based on observed monthly mean temperatures, it is possible to construct a simple mathematical model of the annual variation of daily mean temperature, the annual temperature wave. For periods of 15 years, the model gives a good correlation with the observed monthly values. The model may be used as a tool for the generation of daily mean temperatures for the corresponding period. It is continuous, differentiable and strictly monotonous between the unique maximum and the minimum of the curve. Consequently, climate quantities of interest for each period can be calculated by the means of simple mathematical analyses. The model was tested by reproducing values for quantities such as annual mean temperature, winter mean temperature, summer mean temperature and temperature sums. Model calculated values, fit values calculated directly from observed data well. The model was also tested by comparing results from two different but neighbouring stations. There was a good correlation between the results from the two stations. Long homogenised time series with 130 years of monthly mean temperature from seven Norwegian stations were analysed by means of the model. It was found that the Frost Free Season Length and the Growth Season Length had increased for all stations by 10–20 days/100 years in the period 1871–1990. The Summer Half-year Length, even if it was defined relative to the annual mean temperature, also increased for all stations by 4–9 days/100 years. The Hot Season Length showed positive trends as well, and for the five stations in Southern Norway, the trends were as high as 18–29 days/100 years. The Heat Sum had increased by 6–11% for southern stations and 20–22% for the northern stations. The results indicate that the level as well as the shape of the annual temperature wave changed in the period from 1871 to 1990. Some of the results for the period 1990–1999 diverge substantially from the trends, possibly indicating significant changes in the shape of the annual temperature wave in this last period.     

Recent trends in observed temperature and precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River basin,China

Summary The present study is an analysis of the observed extreme temperature and precipitation trends over Yangtze from 1960 to 2002 on the basis of the daily data from 108 meteorological stations. The intention is to identify whether or not the frequency or intensity of extreme events has increased with climate warming over Yangtze River basin in the last 40 years. Both the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and simple linear regression were utilized to detect monotonic trends in annual and seasonal extremes. Trend tests reveal that the annual and seasonal mean maximum and minimum temperature trend is characterized by a positive trend and that the strongest trend is found in the winter mean minimum in the Yangtze. However, the observed significant trend on the upper Yangtze reaches is less than that found on the middle and lower Yangtze reaches and for the mean maximum is much less than that of the mean minimum. From the basin-wide point of view, significant increasing trends are observed in 1-day extreme temperature in summer and winter minimum, but there is no significant trend for 1-day maximum temperature. Moreover, the number of cold days ≤0 °C and ≤10 °C shows significant decrease, while the number of hot days (daily value ≥35 °C) shows only a minor decrease. The upward trends found in the winter minimum temperature in both the mean and the extreme value provide evidence of the warming-up of winter and of the weakening of temperature extremes in the Yangtze in last few decades. The monsoon climate implies that precipitation amount peaks in summer as does the occurrence of heavy rainfall events. While the trend test has revealed a significant trend in summer rainfall, no statistically significant change was observed in heavy rain intensity. The 1-day, 3-day and 7-day extremes show only a minor increase from a basin-wide point of view. However, a significant positive trend was found for the number of rainstorm days (daily rainfall ≥50 mm). The increase of rainstorm frequency, rather than intensity, on the middle and lower reaches contributes most to the positive trend in summer precipitation in the Yangtze.     

Recent trends of mean maximum and minimum air temperatures in the western half of Iran

In this study, the trends of the annual, seasonal and monthly maximum (T _max) and minimum (T _min) air temperatures time series were investigated for 20 stations in the western half of Iran during 1966?C2005. Three statistical tests including Mann?CKendall, Sen??s slope estimator and linear regression were used for the analysis. The annual T _max and T _min series showed a positive trend in 85% of the stations and a negative trend in 15% of the stations in the study region. The highest increase of T _max and T _min values were obtained over Kermanshah and Ahwaz at the rates of (+)0.597°C/decade and (+)0.911°C/decade, respectively. On the seasonal scale, the strongest increasing trends were identified in T _max and T _min data in summer. The highest numbers of stations with positive significant trends occurred in the monthly T _max and T _min series in August. In contrast, the lowest numbers of stations with significant positive trends were observed between November and March. Overall, the results showed similar increasing trends for the study variables, although T _min generally increased at a higher rate than T _max in the study period.     

Recent trends in mean maximum and minimum air temperatures over Spain (1961–2006)

This study analyzes the mean maximum and minimum temperature trends on a monthly, seasonal, and annual timescale by applying various statistical tools to data from 476 Spanish weather stations during the period between 1961 and 2006. The magnitude of the trends was derived from the slopes of the regression lines using the least squares method, and the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test was used to determine the statistical significance of the trends. Temperature significantly increased in over 60% of the country in March, June, spring, and summer in the case of maximum temperatures and in March, May, June, August, spring, and summer for minimum temperatures. At the annual resolution, temperatures significantly increased in over 90% of Spain with a rise of around 0.3°C/decade. The maximum temperature increased at a higher rate than the minimum temperature from midsummer to early winter as well as in winter, spring, and summer and also on an annual basis.     

南京极值温度长期变化及其与平均温度的关系

利用1951—2009年南京日平均气温、日最高气温以及日最低气温等资料,分析了南京日最高气温和最低气温的长期演变趋势及其与平均温度的关系。结果表明：近60 a来,南京年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温均呈变暖趋势,20世纪90年代增温尤为明显;日最高气温,除夏季表现为降温趋势外,其他季节均为升温趋势;而四季平均气温和平均最低气温均为增温趋势;夏季气温日较差下降趋势明显,导致夏季昼夜温差减小;极端高温、低温的发生日数均呈下降趋势。极端气温与平均气温之间存在明显的相关性,且极端低温对平均气温影响更为明显。     

城市化对安徽省极端气温事件的影响

利用卫星遥感资料对安徽省46个台站进行分类,统计分析了城市站、郊区站和乡村站1961-2010年的极端气温指数的年和季节的变化趋势及其受城市化的影响和贡献。结果表明：1) 近50年来,除最高气温年极大值外,其他气温年极值都有明显上升趋势,以最低温度极小值最显著;暖日、暖夜天数呈增加趋势,而冷日、冷夜天数呈减少趋势,其中暖夜和冷夜变化趋势更明显;各极端指数的变化趋势总体均表现为城市站较乡村站更显著,郊区站介于两者之间。2) 城市站最高气温极大值、最低气温极大值和最低气温极小值因城市化造成的增温分别为0.144、0.184和0.161℃/10a,增温贡献率分别达100.0%、58.8%和21.6%,但城市化对最高气温极小值影响较弱;季节尺度的城市化影响基本都造成增温,春、秋季更明显,而增温贡献率以春、夏季更明显,冬季最小或不显著。3) 城市化效应使暖日和暖夜天数增加、冷夜天数减少的趋势更加显著,城市化影响贡献率都在40%以上;暖日、暖夜和冷夜天数的城市化影响贡献率都在冬季最小或不显著。     

南京极值温度长期变化及其与平均温度的关系

利用1951-2009年南京日平均气温、日最高气温以及日最低气温等资料,分析了南京日最高气温和最低气温的长期演变趋势及其与平均温度的关系。结果表明：近60a来,南京年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温均呈变暖趋势,20世纪90年代增温尤为明显;日最高气温,除夏季表现为降温趋势外,其他季节均为升温趋势;而四季平均气...     

吉林省最高最低气温非对称变化时空演变特征

利用吉林省45个气象站1970-2014年逐日的最高、最低气温资料,分析吉林省最高、最低气温不对称变化在年、季尺度上的时空演变特征。采用经验模态分解法(EMD)分解年、季最高、最低气温序列,分析变化趋势。结果表明:近45年年平均最高、最低气温均呈增加趋势,且最低气温增幅是最高气温的两倍。四季的最高、最低气温变化形式与年变化一致;不同地区之间最高气温的增幅差异不大,最低气温增幅存在一定区别,东部最低气温增幅小于中、西部。相对稳定的增温区出现在西部和中部,不同季节的增温幅度不同,春、夏要强于秋、冬。经验模态分解(EMD)结果显示吉林省年平均最高、最低气温均为增加趋势,而春、冬季中最高气温趋势分量的倾向率与原始序列不同,为负值。夏、秋季中最高气温及四季中最低气温趋势分量序列与原始数据序列的倾向率一致,均为正值但大小存在差异。     

Air temperature variations in upper parts of the Bulgarian mountains

Summary Using the methods of running means and integral difference curves, the monthly and annual air temperatures in upper parts of the Bulgarian mountains are studied. Data from seven stations are used, covering the period 1930–1989. Records of mean, minimum and maximum air temperature for January, April, July, and October are analysed. Periods of warming and cooling in separate months of the year are identified. In upper parts of Bulgaria during recent years, the temperature record has shown a trend towards warming in winter and cooling in summer. Mean annual temperatures were observed to decrease between 1962 and 1981.With 5 Figures     

Spatiotemporal variations in rainfall erosivity during the period of 1960–2011 in Guangdong Province,southern China

Rainfall erosivity, which shows a potential risk of soil loss caused by water erosion, is an important factor in soil erosion process. In consideration of the critical condition of soil erosion induced by rainfall in Guangdong Province of southern China, this study analyzed the spatial and temporal variations in rainfall erosivity based on daily rainfall data observed at 25 meteorological stations during the period of 1960–2011. The methods of global spatial autocorrelation, kriging interpolation, Mann–Kendall test, and continuous wavelet transform were used. Results revealed that the annual rainfall erosivity in Guangdong Province, which spatially varied with the maximum level observed in June, was classified as high erosivity with two peaks that occur in spring and summer. In the direction of south–north, mean annual rainfall erosivity, which showed significant relationships with mean annual rainfall and latitude, gradually decreased with the high values mainly distributed in the coastal area and the low values mainly occurring in the lowlands of northwestern Guangdong. Meanwhile, a significant positive spatial autocorrelation which implied a clustered pattern was observed for annual rainfall erosivity. The spatial distribution of seasonal rainfall erosivity exhibited clustering tendencies, except spring erosivity with Moran’s I and Z values of 0.1 and 1.04, respectively. The spatial distribution of monthly rainfall erosivity presented clustered patterns in January–March and July–October as well as random patterns in the remaining months. The temporal trend of mean rainfall erosivity in Guangdong Province showed no statistically significant trend at the annual, seasonal, and monthly scales. However, at each station, 1 out of 25 stations exhibited a statistically significant trend at the annual scale; 4 stations located around the Pearl River Delta presented significant trends in summer at the seasonal scale; significant trends were observed in March (increasing trends at 3 stations), June (increasing trends at 4 stations located in the Beijiang River Basin), and October (decreasing trends at 4 stations) at the monthly scale. In accordance with the mean annual rainfall over Guangdong Province, the mean annual rainfall erosivity showed two significant periodicities of 3–6 and 10–12 years at a confidence level of 95 %. In conclusion, the results of this study provide insights into the spatiotemporal variation in rainfall erosivity in Guangdong Province and support for agrolandscape planning and water and soil conservation efforts in this region.     

Spatial patterns and temporal trends of precipitation in Iran

Spatial patterns of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation over Iran and the corresponding long-term trends for the period 1951–2009 are investigated using the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre gridded dataset. Results suggest that the spatial patterns of annual, winter and spring precipitation and the associated coefficients of variation reflect the role of orography and latitudinal extent between central-southern arid and semi-arid regions and northern and western mountainous areas. It is also shown that precipitation occurrence is almost regularly distributed within the year in northern areas while it is more concentrated in a few months in southern Iran. The spatial distribution of Mann–Kendal trend test (Z statistics) for annual precipitation showed downward trend in north-western and south-eastern Iran, whereas western, central and north-eastern exhibited upward trend, though not statistically significant in most regions. Results for winter and autumn revealed upward trend in most parts of the country, with the exception of north-western and south-eastern where a downward trend is observed; in spring and summer, a downward trend seems to prevail in most of Iran. However, for all seasons the areas where the detected trend is statistically significant are limited to a few spot regions. The overall results suggest that the precipitation is decreasing in spring and summer and increasing in autumn and winter in most of Iran, i.e. less precipitation during the warm season with a consequent intensification of seasonality and dryness of the country. However, since the detected trends are often not statistically significant, any stringent conclusion cannot be done on the future tendencies.