近10年我国用水与水资源利用情况时空特征研究

水资源是社会经济发展的重要物质基础,地下水是水资源的重要组成部分,水资源合理开发利用是社会经济可持续发展的重要因素之一.基于《中国统计年鉴》及《中国水资源公报》中2003—2012年用水及供水相关数据,利用EOF展开方法,分析了我国31个省级行政分区用水和水资源利用情况的空间分布及时间演变特征.研究结果表明:全国总用水量不断增加,但增幅有所减小,各地区用水总量变化趋势多样,中东部变化较大,西部变化较小,河北省、浙江省、海南省、青海省和甘肃省与其他地区反相变化;江苏省、浙江省和广东省地下水资源的利用与工业产业协调发展,可作为其他地区的典范;北京市、天津市、河北省、山西省、陕西省、甘肃省和青海省通过调整产业结构,地下水资源利用状况向良好的趋势发展;新疆维吾尔自治区和内蒙古自治区的地下水资源利用现状和趋势不容乐观,应注意增强环保意识,调整产业结构,以求水资源得到协调、可持续的开发和利用.     

基于SWAT模型分析三江源兴海地区水资源演化对近40年气候变化的响应

气候条件在水资源形成、演化过程中扮演着非常关键的角色,气候条件的变化将通过水资源对社会经济与可持续发展产生作用。本文以三江源头地区的青海省兴海县为代表,通过对兴海县近40年气候资料分析和水资源有关参数的计算,结合兴海县水资源演变状况。根据工农业和生产用水和生活用水不同水平对水资源的要求,分析了兴海县气候和气候变化对水资源演变的影响,为了合理利用和开发水资源提出了参考建议。     

气候变化对黄河流域水资源影响研究进展

20世纪90年代以来,黄河流域天然径流量大幅减少,水资源供需矛盾已经成为制约流域社会经济可持续发展的重大问题.本文概述了国内外气候变化对流域水文水资源影响的研究进展;论述了气候变化对黄河流域水文水资源影响研究的方法、结果和最新进展及黄河流域气候变化对水资源影响研究的问题.建议今后加强基础数据和资料的分析研究,建立适合黄河流域的多情景综合气候评价模型;提高黄河流域极端气象水文事件预测能力,为流域水资源管理和综合规划服务.     

黄土高原中心地区水资源现状与可持续利用对策

处于黄土高原中心地区的庆阳市水资源十分缺乏,水资源总量严重不足,现有的水资源在开采方面又存在很大的难度,可利用水资源极其缺乏,严重阻碍了社会经济的可持续发展。本文主要通过对该水资源总量、利用现状的调查、分析研究,结合当地的地理和经济特点,分析水资源在利用方面存在的问题,提出水资源可持续利用的根本对策。     

气候变化对陕西淡水资源可持续利用的影响和对策调研报告

水是人类赖以生存和发展的不可替代的资源。水资源包括大气水、土壤水和地表水、地下水,其中大气降水是陆地上水资源的根本来源。陕西省大部分位于半干旱、半湿润地区,人均水资源占有量为１３００ｍ３,为全国人均的１／２,世界人均占有量的１／８,水资源非常紧缺,近...     

太原市水资源问题及其对策研究

水资源关系着国计民生。太原市水短缺和水污染已成为城市经济可持续发展的“瓶颈”。从水资源的特性和太原市水资源现状出发,探讨了太原市水资源问题的成因,提高实施节水战略,加大治污和污水回用力度,是最大限度发押有限水资源社会、经济、环保效益的保证。指出开发空中水资源和实施跨区域调水,是解决太原市水资源总量问题的有效途径,是保护和改善太原市水环境使其步入良性循环的最佳方法。     

新书架

《气候变化与中国水资源》出版我国大多数河流的径流对大气降水变化都非常敏感。气候变化对这些河流的水资源具有显著影响,近年来这个问题已引起国内学者和有关部门的高度重视。气象出版社出版的《气候变化与中国水资源》一书包括了近年来我国气象和水文领域学者对气候变化与水资源研究的最新成果。该书共分十二章,分别包括气候变化对水资源影响研究进展、中国及十大江河流域气候状况、中国及十大江河流域气候变化、中国及主要流域极端气候事件变化、中国土壤湿度的变化特征、中国大气水汽通量和云量变化、中国十大江河流域气候年代际变化及…     

基于微波辐射计资料的祁连山东段大气水汽和液态水时空变化特征

气候变暖背景下全球干旱风险升高，而对气候变化高敏感的中国西北干旱半干旱区尤为突出，严重制约着区域经济的可持续发展，科学开发空中云水资源是解决该区域水资源短缺的有效途径。利用甘肃永登国家气象观测站地基多通道微波辐射计资料和常规气象观测资料，研究祁连山东段大气水汽和液态水的时空分布及不同性质降水前演变特征。结果表明：（1）受大气环流、地形、边界层及局地和区域天气气候条件等多因素影响，祁连山东段98%以上的水汽集中在6.0 km以下，大气水汽密度随高度下降，液态水含量则随高度先增后减。降水天气背景下，水汽密度及液态水含量明显增大，且液态水含量最大值出现高度有所降低。（2）水汽及液态水存在明显的季节变化，夏季大气可降水量远大于冬季，夏季液态水垂直伸展高度及最大值出现高度均大于冬季。（3）水汽及液态水日变化明显，且存在季节差异。水汽日峰值出现在下午至傍晚，谷值出现在清晨至中午；夏半年峰值及谷值出现时间较冬半年迟，且峰谷值变化幅度更大。液态水垂直伸展高度白天高于夜间，且夏半年垂直分布较冬半年深厚。（4）大气可降水量存在10～20 d和8 d左右的主周期，夏、秋季4～7 d和21～32 d的周期变化...     

中国地区空中云水资源气候分布特征及变化趋势

利用1984~2004年国际卫星云气候学计划（ISCCP）的云水路径（CWP）资料,分析了中国地区空中云水资源的分布特征、变化趋势以及与大气环流和湿度场的关系。研究发现,中国地区CWP的分布与大气环流、地形特征和大气湿度分布及水汽传输密切相关,中国地区CWP存在明显的季节变化,6月全国平均CWP最高,10月最低,不同地区季节变化差异明显。从变化趋势看,中国地区CWP以增加为主,青藏高原东部、内蒙古东部地区以及西北东部地区CWP的增加趋势较强。全国范围内,冬季和秋季CWP增加较大,春季和夏季增加较小。这些变化主要与大气环流变化导致的抬升运动的增强以及大气湿度（水汽）增加有关。中国地区空中云水资源在全球变暖的背景下表现出增加的趋势,符合气温增加导致水循环增强的观点。     

前言——面向世界,开拓创新

中国科学院大气物理研究所是我国大气科学领域的综合研究机构,她的使命是:探索地球大气和大气与周边环境相互作用中的各种物理、化学、生物、人文过程的规律;提供天气、气候和环境的监测、预测和调控的有关理论、方法和技术,服务于经济和社会的可持续发展和国家安全;造就本领域     

Atmospheric and Terrestrial Water Balances of Labrador's Churchill River Basin,as Simulated by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program

In an effort to understand the sources of uncertainty and the physical consistency of climate models from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), an ensemble of general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) was used to explore climatological water balances for the Churchill River basin in Labrador, Canada. This study quantifies mean atmospheric and terrestrial water balance residuals, as well as their annual cycles. Mean annual atmospheric water balances had consistently higher residuals than the terrestrial water balances due, in part, to the influences of sampling of instantaneous variables and the interpolation of atmospheric data to published pressure levels. Atmospheric and terrestrial water balance residuals for each ensemble member were found to be consistent between base and future periods, implying that they are systemic and not climate dependent. With regard to the annual cycle, no pattern was found across time periods or ensemble members to indicate whether the monthly terrestrial or atmospheric root mean square residual was highest. Because of the interdependence of hydrological cycle components, the complexity of climate models and the variety of methods and processes used by different ensemble members, it was impossible to isolate all causes of the water balance residuals. That being said, the residuals created by interpolating a model's native vertical resolution onto NARCCAP's published pressure levels and the subsequent vertical interpolation were quantified and several other sources were explored. In general, residuals were found to be predominantly functions of the RCM choice (as opposed to the GCM choice) and their respective modelling processes, parameterization schemes, and post-processing.     

区域海气耦合模式对华北夏季大气水汽输送模拟结果的检验及其与单独气候模式的比较分析

将区域海气耦合模式RegCM3-POM和区域气候模式RegCM3 40年(1963-2002年)的模拟结果与NCEP/NCAR再分析资料进行对比,检验区域海气耦合模式对中国华北地区夏季大气水汽含量和水汽输送特征的模拟能力,比较耦合模式与单独区域气候模式的差异.结果表明,区域海气耦合模式RegCM3-POM的模拟性能相对于单独区域气候模式RegCM3,大气水汽输送特征的模拟能力有了较大的改进.分析显示两种模式都能够较好地再现东哑地区气候平均夏季大气水汽储量浅红和水汽输送的空间分布特征,而耦合模式对大气水汽输送的模拟更为合理.在对流层中低层更接近观测;耦合模式对中国华北地区夏季平均大气水汽输送通量在垂直方向卜的分布型及水平4个边界水汽输送收支的模拟,相对于单独大气模式有了一定的改进;耦合模式对伴随华北地区夏季早涝的大气水汽异常输送也具有较好的模拟能力,其模拟的水汽输送异常的来源与观测基本一致,尤其是在20°N以北地区,耦合模式结果相对于单独区域气候模式有了很大的改进.但同时耦合模式在低纬度海洋上对气候平均夏季大气水汽含量模拟的偏差比区域气候模式显著;与观测相比,耦合模式对来自孟加拉湾地区的大气水汽输送模拟偏弱,而对西太平洋副热带高压西侧水汽输送模拟偏强,与华北夏季旱涝相联系的水汽输送异常的模拟在低纬度海洋上也存在明显偏差.     

大气水汽变化及其反馈效应研究进展

大气水汽变化的反馈作用是影响平衡气候系统敏感性的最大反馈作用之一,能够放大其他温室气体增暖的效应,并可能导致极端天气气候事件的发生趋多趋强。因此,全面分析大气水汽的时空分布特征及其长期变化趋势,评估大气水汽反馈的区域气候效应,对于我们深入认识和理解全球变暖背景下区域气候响应的机理具有重要意义。综合国内外最新研究,已基本能够确定水汽反馈效应为一种使得全球增暖加快近一倍的强烈正反馈,并已能够估计其大致变化范围,但是此估计仍存在较大不确定性。随着卫星和探空技术的发展,目前已有的长期水汽资料日趋丰富,但资料之间也存在一些不确定性问题,同时单个资料本身也存在非均一性问题。最新的气候系统模式已能够大致模拟大气水汽的反馈效应,但近年的进展速度却并不令人乐观。我国的水汽观测和水汽反馈效应的研究也已取得长足进步,可以基本确定为水汽变化与地面温度存在正反馈关系,而与降水的关系虽然也较为密切,但因区域气候变化仍存在较大的不一致性。     

美国全球变化研究现状

美国的全球变化研究主要由美国全球变化研究计划（ＵＳＧＣＲＰ）支持,重点资助季节—年际尺度气候变率,十年—百年尺度的气候变化,臭氧、ＵＶ辐射以及大气化学的变化,土地利用以及陆地、海洋生态系统的变化等４个领域。当前,水汽与云仍是全球变化研究中不确定性较大的一个方面,因而受到关注。关于气候变化的信号检测以及成因分析也是一个研究热点。气候模拟研究是全球变化研究的一个主要方法。卫星资料在全球变化研究中的应用取得了大量成果。近期美国在全球变化研究领域的重点是气候模拟,短期气候预测,十年—百年尺度的气候变化,臭氧、ＵＶ辐射以及大气化学的变化,地表以及陆地、海洋生态系统变化,对全球变化的区域尺度估计,卫星资料的应用,气候变化影响的国家级评估等８个方面。     

An evaluation of Arctic cloud and radiation processes during the SHEBA year: simulation results from eight Arctic regional climate models

Eight atmospheric regional climate models (RCMs) were run for the period September 1997 to October 1998 over the western Arctic Ocean. This period was coincident with the observational campaign of the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) project. The RCMs shared common domains, centred on the SHEBA observation camp, along with a common model horizontal resolution, but differed in their vertical structure and physical parameterizations. All RCMs used the same lateral and surface boundary conditions. Surface downwelling solar and terrestrial radiation, surface albedo, vertically integrated water vapour, liquid water path and cloud cover from each model are evaluated against the SHEBA observation data. Downwelling surface radiation, vertically integrated water vapour and liquid water path are reasonably well simulated at monthly and daily timescales in the model ensemble mean, but with considerable differences among individual models. Simulated surface albedos are relatively accurate in the winter season, but become increasingly inaccurate and variable in the melt season, thereby compromising the net surface radiation budget. Simulated cloud cover is more or less uncorrelated with observed values at the daily timescale. Even for monthly averages, many models do not reproduce the annual cycle correctly. The inter-model spread of simulated cloud-cover is very large, with no model appearing systematically superior. Analysis of the co-variability of terms controlling the surface radiation budget reveal some of the key processes requiring improved treatment in Arctic RCMs. Improvements in the parameterization of cloud amounts and surface albedo are most urgently needed to improve the overall performance of RCMs in the Arctic.     

MM5模式对区域气候模拟的性能试验

利用1998年6月NCEP资料和6月2日00：00地表资料及美国NCAR／PENN州的MM5对1998年6月我国南方降雨过程进行了气候模拟的性能试验，模拟结果表明，MM5基本上可模拟出局地大气环流和区域尺度上的强对流过程造成的雨区，降雨强度和强降水中心位置，但模拟的雨量与实际值相差较大，模拟值再现了我国夏季降水异常的空间分布特点，模式可向区域气候模式发展，但该模式模拟的1998年6月副高强度比其实际值的强度更强，故导致更多的水汽进入降雨区，造成过多的降雨。     

Glacial-Interglacial Atmospheric CO2 Change—The Glacial Burial Hypothesis

Organic carbon buried under the great ice sheets of the Northern Hemisphere is suggested to be the missing link in the atmospheric CO2 change over the glacial-interglacial cycles. At glaciation, the advancement of continental ice sheets buries vegetation and soil carbon accumulated during warmer pe-riods. At deglaciation, this burial carbon is released back into the atmosphere. In a simulation over two glacial-interglacial cycles using a synchronously coupled atmosphere-land-ocean carbon model forced by reconstructed climate change, it is found that there is a 547-Gt terrestrial carbon release from glacial maximum to interglacial, resulting in a 60-Gt (about 30-ppmv) increase in the atmospheric CO2, with the remainder absorbed by the ocean in a scenario in which ocean acts as a passive buffer. This is in contrast to previous estimates of a land uptake at deglaciation. This carbon source originates from glacial burial,continental shelf, and other land areas in response to changes in ice cover, sea level, and climate. The input of light isotope enriched terrestrial carbon causes atmospheric δ^13C to drop by about 0.3‰ at deglaciation,followed by a rapid rise towards a high interglacial value in response to oceanic warming and regrowth on land. Together with other ocean based mechanisms such as change in ocean temperature, the glacial burial hypothesis may offer a full explanation of the observed 80-100-ppmv atmospheric CO2 change.     

Impacts of global warming on hydrological cycles in the Asian monsoon region

The hydrologic changes and the impact of these changes constitute a fundamental global-warmingrelated concern. Faced with threats to human life and natural ecosystems, such as droughts, floods, and soil erosion, water resource planners must increasingly make future risk assessments. Though hydrological predictions associated with the global climate change are already being performed, mainly through the use of GCMs, coarse spatial resolutions and uncertain physical processes limit the representation of terrestrial water/energy interactions and the variability in such systems as the Asian monsoon. Despite numerous studies, the regional responses of hydrologic changes resulting from climate change remains inconclusive. In this paper, an attempt at dynamical downsealing of future hydrologic projection under global climate change in Asia is addressed. The authors conducted present and future Asian regional climate simulations which were nested in the results of Atmospheric General Circulation Model （AGCM） experiments. The regional climate model could capture the general simulated features of the AGCM. Also, some regional phenomena such as orographic precipitation, which did not appear in the outcome of the AGCM simulation, were successfully produced. Under global warming, the increase of water vapor associated with the warmed air temperature was projected. It was projected to bring more abundant water vapor to the southern portions of India and the Bay of Bengal, and to enhance precipitation especially over the mountainous regions, the western part of India and the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. As a result of the changes in the synoptic flow patterns and precipitation under global warming, the increases of annual mean precipitation and surface runoff were projected in many regions of Asia. However, both the positive and negative changes of seasonal surface runoff were projected in some regions which will increase the flood risk and cause a mismatch between water demand and water availability in the agricul     

Integrating agriculture and climate change mitigation at landscape scale: Implications from an Australian case study

Rural and regional hinterlands provide the ecosystem service needs for increasingly urbanised communities across the globe. These inter-related ecosystem services provide key opportunities in securing climate change mitigation and adaptation. Their integrated management in the face of climate change, however, can be confounded by fragmentation within the complex institutional arrangements concerned with natural resource management. This suggests the need for a more systemic approach to continuous improvement in the integrated and adaptive governance of natural resources.This paper explores the theoretical foundations for integrated natural resource management and reviews positive systemic improvements that have been emerging in the Australian context. In setting clear theoretical foundations, the paper explores both functional and structural aspects of natural resource governance systems. Functional considerations include issues of connectivity, knowledge use and capacity within the natural resource decision making environment. Structural considerations refer to the institutions and processes that undertake planning through to implementation, monitoring and evaluation.From this foundation, we review the last decade of emerging initiatives in governance regarding the integration of agriculture and forests across the entire Australian landscape. This includes the shift towards more devolved regional approaches to integrated natural resource management and recent progress towards the use of terrestrial carbon at landscape scale to assist in climate change mitigation and adaptation. These developments, however, have also been tempered by a significant raft of new landscape-scale regulations that have tended to be based on a more centralist philosophy that landowners should be providing ecosystem services for the wider public good without substantive reward.Given this background, we explore a case study of efforts taken to integrate the management of landscape-scale agro-ecological services in the Wet Tropics of tropical Queensland. This is being achieved primarily through the integration of regional natural resource management planning and the development of aggregated terrestrial carbon offset products at a whole of landscape scale via the Degree Celsius initiative. Finally, the paper teases out the barriers and opportunities being experienced, leading to discussion about the global implications for managing climate change, income generation and poverty reduction.     

Geographical Patterns and Temporal Variations of Regional Dry and Wet Heatwave Events in China during 1960–2008

Daily maximum/minimum temperatures and relative humidity records from 510 stations in China for the period 1960–2008 were used to investigate geographical patterns and temporal variations of heatwave (HW) events. Dry and wet HW events were compared by different definitions. Regionally, both dry and wet HW events are commonly located in southeastern China in the monsoon area, with neither type occurring in the northeast part of Northeast China and Southwest China, while the north-northwest region of the country experiences dry HW events and a few wet HW events. In the southeast of the country, site dry HW events occurred from April to September and mostly in June, while site wet HW events occurred from April to October and mostly in September. In total, 163 regional wet HW events were identified. The ten longest regional wet HW events lasted for more than 20 days, while the mean duration for 163 events was about 11 days. For the top ten events, six occurred after the 1990s, compared with four before this time. Global surface warming was clear since 1979, but the frequency and severity of regional wet HW events were relatively low in the 1980s, increasing remarkably since the 1990s. Possible reasons for this might be the strong interdecadal and interannual variations in regional atmospheric circulations, as well as water transport related directly to temperature contrasts in different regions, rather than global-mean temperature changes.