美国全球变化研究现状

美国的全球变化研究主要由美国全球变化研究计划（ＵＳＧＣＲＰ）支持，重点资助季节—年际尺度气候变率，十年—百年尺度的气候变化，臭氧、ＵＶ辐射以及大气化学的变化，土地利用以及陆地、海洋生态系统的变化等４个领域。当前，水汽与云仍是全球变化研究中不确定性较大的一个方面，因而受到关注。关于气候变化的信号检测以及成因分析也是一个研究热点。气候模拟研究是全球变化研究的一个主要方法。卫星资料在全球变化研究中的应用取得了大量成果。近期美国在全球变化研究领域的重点是气候模拟，短期气候预测，十年—百年尺度的气候变化，臭氧、ＵＶ辐射以及大气化学的变化，地表以及陆地、海洋生态系统变化，对全球变化的区域尺度估计，卫星资料的应用，气候变化影响的国家级评估等８个方面。

Status of Global Change Studies in the United States

The global change studies in the United States are mainly supported by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The four key global change issues of USGCRP are seasonal to interannual climate variability, climate change over decades to centuries, changes in ozone, UV radiation and atmospheric chemistry, changes in land cover and in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. At the current stage, water vapor and cloud remain to be the emphasis of global change research due to the great uncertainties in this aspect. Another focus is the detection and attribution of climate changes. The climate modeling keeps to be one of the main methodologies of global change studies. The application of satellite based observational data in global change studies has been made great progresses. In the coming years, the new research focuses of global change studies in the United States will be climate modeling, short term climate prediction, climate changes over decades to centuries, changes in ozone, UV radiation and atmospheric chemistry, changes in land cover, and in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, regional scale estimates of global change, application of satellite data and national assessment of the consequences of climate change for the United States.