新书架

正《天气气候变化及其动力学研究——李崇银院士从事大气科学六十周年纪念文集》大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室编该书收集了李崇银院士及其学生依据国家需求在天气气候分析、天气气候动力学、数值模拟和预报、卫星遥感、臭氧和平流层,以及边界层大气扩散,大气与海洋、大气与空间科学等交叉领域发表的综述文章和在大气科学不同领域的研究论文。可供天气气候分析、天气气候动力学、数值模拟和预报、卫星遥感、臭氧和平流层,以及边界层大气扩散,大气与海洋、大气与空间科学等交叉领域的科研人员参考阅读。     

SD-WACCM模式对平流层化学组分的模拟研究

利用美国大气研究中心开发的全球气候模式,对2008年平流层的化学组分(HNO₃、HCl和O₃)进行了模拟研究,并结合了MLS卫星资料进行了对比分析。结果表明,模式可以较好地再现平流层的各化学组分的时空分布状况。并选取了8个区域,将模拟的2008—2009年O₃柱浓度与臭氧监测仪资料对比,结果表明,模式可以较好地再现全球O₃总量的季节变化情况。     

平流层臭氧变化对对流层气候影响的研究进展

平流层对对流层的作用是准确评估、预测对流层气候变化的一个重要方面。其中平流层成分尤其是臭氧的变化,可以改变平流层乃至对流层的辐射平衡,从而影响平流层、对流层的热动力过程。本文从辐射、动力2个角度介绍了平流层臭氧影响对流层气候变化的若干研究进展。平流层臭氧可以通过长短波辐射的方式对对流层大气造成辐射强迫,利用大气化学气候模式可以定量计算平流层臭氧变化引起的辐射强迫,但是辐射强迫的估算受模式中辐射传输模块本身缺陷的影响存在不确定性。动力方面,平流层臭氧变化产生的辐射效应可以改变温度的垂直和经向梯度,造成波折射指数的变化,进而影响平流层甚至对流层内波的折射与反射,通过上对流层下平流层区域内的波—流相互作用,对对流层气候产生影响。另外,南极臭氧损耗可通过大气环状模影响冬春季中高纬度对流层的天气气候,但是其影响的强度大小以及物理机制仍需进一步的确认。值得注意的是,北极平流层臭氧的变化与北半球中高纬度气候变化之间的关系相比南半球要更加复杂,需要更为深入的研究。     

气候和气候变化领域的研究进展

该文回顾了过去几十年来中国气象科学研究院在气候和气候变化研究方面的成果, 主要包括对我国历史气候资料的恢复、重建和整理, 气候区划, 对我国气温和降水的研究, 对青藏高原温度和降水、近地层与边界层地-气过程, 大气热源特征和臭氧变化的研究, 古气候模拟, 对气候变化的预测理论和方法以及气候和气候变化对我国社会、经济的影响等方面的研究。近50年中国气象科学研究院收集大量气候资料并整理出版了《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》; 对风能等资源进行了气候区划; 明确了近几十年中国地区在20世纪40年代和90年代出现了两个暖期, 20世纪50—60年代出现了相对冷期; 在全球变暖的背景下, 以四川为中心的西南地区自20世纪50年代到80年代一直在变冷; 20世纪80年代以后, 多雨带由华北南移到长江中下游地区; 提出青藏高原近地层与边界层地-气过程的综合物理图像; 发现青藏高原夏季臭氧低值中心; 模拟出青藏高原隆起过程中中国气候变化特征; 揭示出东亚季风环流系统及其成员; 设计了多种预报方法; 还将气候和气候变化研究成果向国家经济转化。     

国际气候变化研究新进展

 简要回顾了国际上气候变化科学研究在最近所取得的进展，主要包括近百年温度和降水的变化，大气成分和辐射强迫的变化，热带和中高纬度气候变化，台风和气候变化，全球变暗和反照率，气候模式与气候变化的预估，气候突变和极端事件等方面。通过回顾可以看到，气候变化科学已取得了显著的进展，但也提出一些新的科学问题，国内外科学家将面临新的科学挑战。     

卫星臭氧资料的发展与应用

随着卫星探测技术的进步、天气学和气候学理论的不断完善,以及高性能计算机广泛应用,卫星臭氧资料的种类得到极大丰富并被应用到多个研究领域中,取得了一系列重要成果。文中介绍了主要星载臭氧探测仪的发展概况,回顾了卫星臭氧资料在气象领域的应用研究成果,主要包括卫星臭氧资料在气旋或低压过程中、全球或区域臭氧的气候分布及变化特征、高原臭氧分布及变化特点、数值应用等方面的应用研究,并展望了卫星臭氧资料研究的未来发展趋势。      

新书架

正《中国的气候变化及其预测》丁一汇主编该书主要阐述中国气候变化的区域特征、演变过程和原因以及根据新一代中国气候模式预测的全球和中国未来百年气候变化结果,旨在根据中国近百年多种观测资料的分析,物理机制的解释与气候模式的模拟与预测对中国的气候变化特征提供新的认知。全书重点对7个问题做了深入的阐述:近百年地表气温升温的幅度与多尺度的降水变化;现代和历史的极端气候事件;中国的区域水循环;大气气溶胶对中国气候的影响;中国气候变化的原因;中国新一代气候     

中国的PM2.5和对流层臭氧及污染物排放控制对策的综合分析

本文首先对中国PM2.5和近地面臭氧浓度的观测进行了简要的综述;并利用2010-2013年全球对流层臭氧的卫星观测数据给出了对流层臭氧浓度在全球和中国地区的分布特征,其平均值分别为29.78 DU和33.97 DU。然后,利用一个气溶胶大气化学-全球气候双向耦合模式模拟了中国地区PM2.5的浓度分布和季节变化,其年平均值为0.51×10^-8 kg/m³。在此基础上又分析了5种典型气溶胶对PM2.5总浓度在不同季节的贡献。结合IPCC第五次评估报告（AR5）,讨论了气溶胶和温室气体及其前体物的排放与辐射强迫的联系,以及减排大气臭氧前体物和气溶胶颗粒物质（PM）对气候变化的可能影响。指出减排臭氧前体物对气候的影响还不完全清楚,对短寿命的温室气体和黑碳气溶胶的减排是一种短期（未来50年）的辅助措施;为了保证全球平均温度增长不超过2℃,减少二氧化碳的排放仍是我们需要坚持的长期战略。短期和长期的减排战略对于保护环境和减缓气候变化都是至关重要的。     

区域气候模拟研究

区域气候模拟是近几年发展起来的研究有限区域气候及气候变化的方法。由于区域气候模式较好地表示了地形和地表状况，同时包含较详细的陆地过程方案，因而能捕获许多大气环流模式难以分辨的区域尺度温度、降水分布和土壤水分变化特征。此外，区域气候模拟对于了解温室气体强迫可能导致的全球增暖在区域尺度上的特征及生态、环境效应也具有重要的意义。该文总结区域气候模式和模拟试验结果，并指出存在问题及今后研究的重点。     

大样本初始化十年际预测试验（CESM-DPLE）对东亚夏季气候预测的评估

基于气温和降水观测资料以及美国国家环境预报中心/国家大气研究中心（NCEP/NCAR）大气再分析资料,系统评估了大样本初始化十年际预测试验（CESM-DPLE）对1959—2016年东亚夏季气候预测的能力。结果表明,CESM-DPLE能较好地模拟东亚夏季气候以及相关主要大气环流系统的基本态特征,在年际尺度上对东亚气温有很高的预测技巧但对降水几乎没有预测能力。CESM-DPLE再现了北大西洋多年代际振荡（AMO）经由激发遥相关波列所引起的中高纬度大气环流、东亚夏季风和气候的异常。20世纪90年代末之后,北大西洋多年代际振荡由冷位相转为暖位相,遥相关波列位相调整,东亚受异常低压控制,东亚夏季风偏强,夏季气温偏高、降水偏多。总体上,尽管还存在着不足,但CESM-DPLE对东亚夏季温度年际变化以及与20世纪90年代末北大西洋多年代际振荡位相转变相联的东亚夏季气候年代际变化具备一定的预测能力,是目前研究和预测东亚气候变化的一套较好试验数据。      

IPCC《气候变化与土地特别报告》对陆气相互作用的新认知

IPCC向全球正式发布了其最新的《气候变化与土地特别报告》（SRCCL）,从陆气相互作用、荒漠化、土地退化、粮食安全、综合变化和协同性、可持续土地管理等方面评估气候变化与土地的相互关联。报告是在IPCC 3个工作组共同主导下,首次系统评估气候变化与陆面过程和土地利用/土地管理之间的相关作用。报告的评估结果表明,全球陆地增温幅度接近全球海陆平均值的两倍,气候变化加重了综合土地压力,并严重影响全球粮食安全,而全球很多区域的极端天气气候事件频率/强度持续增加,加重了农业生产的灾害风险和损失。采取行业间和国家间协同一致的行动,通过可持续土地管理,可以有效地适应和减缓气候变化,同时减轻土地退化、荒漠化和粮食安全的压力。     

Satellite monitoring of global land cover changes and their impact on climate

Land cover is a crucial, spatially and temporally varying component of global carbon and climate systems. Therefore accurate estimation and monitoring of land cover changes is important in global change research. Although, land cover has dramatically changed over the last few centuries, until now there has been no consistent way of quantifying the changes globally.In this study we used long-term climate, soils data along with coarse resolution satellite observations to quantify the magnitude and spatial extent of global land cover changes due to anthropogenic processes. Differences between potential leaf area index, derived from climate-soil-leaf area equilibrium and actual leaf area index obtained from satellite data were used to estimate changes in land cover.Forest clearing for agriculture and irrigated farming in arid and semi-arid lands are found to be two major sources of climatically important land cover changes. Satellite derived Spectral Vegetation indices (SV I) and surface temperatures (T s) show strong impact of land cover changes on climatic processes. Irrigated agriculture in dry areas increased energy absorption and evapotranspiration (ET) compared to natural vegetation. On the other hand, forest clearing for crops decreased energy absorption andET. A land cover classification and monitoring system is proposed using satellite derivedSV I andT s that simultaneously characterize energy absorption and exchange processes. This completely remote sensing based approach is useful for monitoring land cover changes as well as their impacts on climate. Monitoring the spatio-temporal dynamics of land cover is possible with current operational satellites, and could be substantially improved with the Earth Observing System (EOS) era satellite sensors.     

陆地生态系统与全球变化相互作用的研究进展

全球变化及其对生态系统特别是陆地生态系统的影响已经严重地影响到人类生存环境与社会经济的可持续发展 ,引起了各国政府、科学家及公众的高度关注。文中从CO2 浓度倍增、温度变化、水分变化、水热与CO2 协同作用、辐射变化、臭氧变化以及人为干扰等气候环境变化对植物光合生理、生长发育、物质分配、水分利用、碳氮代谢等的影响方面阐述了全球变化影响生态系统的过程与机理 ;从地理分布范围、物候、结构与功能、生态系统的稳定性等方面分析了中国植被、森林生态系统、草原生态系统与农田生态系统对全球变化的响应 ;从植被变化引起的动力条件与热力条件的变化及植被固碳潜力的变化探讨了植被对于气候的反馈作用。在此基础上 ,基于当前全球变化研究前沿 ,提出了未来关于陆地生态系统与全球变化相互作用研究需要重视的方面 ,尤其是关于生态系统对全球变化响应的阈值研究应引起高度重视。     

多圈层陆面过程参数化研究中遥感信息应用的进展和方向

近年来遥感技术的发展为多圈层中陆面过程和边界层研究提供了有力的工具。文章分析了目前用于陆面过程参数化研究的重要遥感信息源。并评述遥感信息在陆面过程参数化研究中的基本应用和存在问题，最后，提出发展方向和展望。     

Integrated Global System Model for Climate Policy Assessment: Feedbacks and Sensitivity Studies

Alternative policies to address global climate change are being debated in many nations and within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. To help provide objective and comprehensive analyses in support of this process, we have developed a model of the global climate system consisting of coupled sub-models of economic growth and associated emissions, natural fluxes, atmospheric chemistry, climate, and natural terrestrial ecosystems. The framework of this Integrated Global System Model is described and the results of sample runs and a sensitivity analysis are presented. This multi-component model addresses most of the major anthropogenic and natural processes involved in climate change and also is computationally efficient. As such, it can be used effectively to study parametric and structural uncertainty and to analyze the costs and impacts of many policy alternatives. Initial runs of the model have helped to define and quantify a number of feedbacks among the sub-models, and to elucidate the geographical variations in several variables that are relevant to climate science and policy. The effect of changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels on the uptake of carbon and emissions of methane and nitrous oxide by land ecosystems is one potentially important feedback which has been identified. The sensitivity analysis has enabled preliminary assessment of the effects of uncertainty in the economic, atmospheric chemistry, and climate sub-models as they influence critical model results such as predictions of temperature, sea level, rainfall, and ecosystem productivity. We conclude that uncertainty regarding economic growth, technological change, deep oceanic circulation, aerosol radiative forcing, and cloud processes are important influences on these outputs.     

Baseline scenarios of global environmental change

This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE 2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change Indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. The scenarios indicate that the coming decades could be a period of relatively rapid global environmental change as compared to the period before and after. The natural vegetation in industrialized regions could be threatened by climate change, but abandonment of agricultural lands could also make new lands available for reforestation and revegetation. The opposite is true for most of Asia and Africa. Here the impacts of climate change on vegetation may not be as significant as in temperate climates, but the demand for food will lead to a significant expansion of agricultural lands at the expense of remaining forests and other natural areas.     

‘The Influence of Land Use Change On Global-Scale Fluxes of Carbon from Terrestrial Ecosystems’

A process-based approach to modelling the effects of land use change and climate change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems was applied at global scale. Simulations were run both with and without land use change. In the absence of land use change between 1700 and 1990, carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems was predicted to increase by 145 Pg C. When land use change was represented during this period, terrestrial ecosystems became a net source of 97 Pg C. Land use change was directly responsible for a flux of 222 Pg C, slightly higher but close to estimates from other studies. The model was then run between 1990 and 2100 with a climate simulated by a GCM. Simulations were run with three land use change scenarios: 1. no land use change; 2. land use change specified by the SRES B2 scenario, and; 3. land use change scaled with population change in the B2 scenario. In the first two simulations with no or limited land use change, the net terrestrial carbon sink was substantial (358 and 257 Pg C, respectively). However, with the population-based land-use change scenario, the losses of carbon through land use change were close to the carbon gains through enhanced net ecosystem productivity, resulting in a net sink near zero. Future changes in land use are highly uncertain, but will have a large impact on the future terrestrial carbon balance. This study attempts to provide some bounds on how land use change may affect the carbon sink over the nextcentury.     

Recent land cover changes on the Tibetan Plateau: a review

This paper reviews the land cover changes on the Tibetan Plateau during the last 50 years partly caused by natural climate change and, more importantly, influenced by human activities. Recent warming trends on the plateau directly influence the permafrost and snow melting and will impact on the local ecosystem greatly. Human activities increased rapidly on the plateau during the last half century and have significant impacts on land use. Significant land cover changes on the Tibetan Plateau include permafrost and grassland degradation, urbanization, deforestation and desertification. These changes not only impact on local climate and environment, but also have important hydrological implications for the rivers which originate from the plateau. The most noticeable disasters include the flooding at the upper reaches of Yangtze River and droughts along the middle and lower reaches of Yellow River. Future possible land cover changes under future global climate warming are important but hard to assess due to the deficits of global climate model in this topographically complex area. Integrated investigation of climate and ecosystems, including human-beings, are highly recommended for future studies.     

极端天气气候事件变化对荒漠化、土地退化和粮食安全的影响

土地是人类赖以生存的重要资源,在受气候变化影响的同时其状况变化也在气候系统中起着关键作用。IPCC最新发布的气候变化与土地特别报告（SRCCL）系统反映了关于荒漠化、土地退化、可持续土地管理、粮食安全和陆地生态系统碳通量方面的最新科学认知,并探讨了如何进行更加可持续性的土地利用和管理以应对与土地相关的气候变化问题。文中从极端事件变化及其影响的角度,结合SRCCL与其他相关文献,予以分析和总结。结果表明,在全球变暖的背景下,极端天气气候事件的变化已经并将继续影响荒漠化和土地退化进程并对粮食安全造成冲击;而土地对气候系统的反馈作用,又会加剧气候变化并提高极端事件发生的概率和严重程度。面对气候变化尤其是极端事件给土地带来的巨大压力,必须坚持可持续的土地管理,通过减少包括土地和粮食系统在内的所有行业的排放,才有可能实现到21世纪末将全球平均升温控制在相对工业化前水平2℃以内的目标,以减轻气候变化对土地和粮食系统的负面影响。