IMPACTS OF THE ONSET OF THE SOUTHEAST ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ON THE BEGINNING OF THE RAINY SEASON IN YUNNAN

1 INTRODUCTIONSummer monsoon in Southeast Asia can causelarge-scale precipitation in the region in early summer,which is featured by prevailing low-level southwesterlyfrom the Bay of Bengal to South China Sea (SCS). Ithas characteristics of its own as well as those of Asianmonsoons in general. As found in studies over recentyears on East Asian monsoons[1],the earliest onset ofthe Southeast Asian summer monsoon occurs in earlysummer over the SCS, among all members of themonsoon syst…     

ANALYSIS OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF WEST-PACIFIC TYPHOONS AFFECTING THE SEA AREA AROUND THE ISLAND OF TAIWAN

1 INTRODUCTION Inflicting hundreds of millions yuan (RMB) worth of economic losses annually, strong winds and torrential rains caused by tropical cyclones are two of the major meteorological disasters exposed in the southeastern coast of China. Much effort has been devoted to the research on the patterns of TC genesis, evolution and variation. Being to southeast of Chinese mainland, the island of Taiwan is separated from Fujian province by the Taiwan Strait to the west and faces the P…     

THE APPLICATION OF DELTA FUNCTION TO THE ALBEDO OF CLOUDS

It is verified that there is δ-phase function characteristic in both of TS and SW simplified models, and on the basis of TS model, a more accurate model calculating the albedo and transmissivity of cloud layers is derived.     

ON THE PARAMETERIZATION OF THE VERTICAL VELOCITY AT THE TOP OF PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER

In this paper, an equation of the vertical velocity at the top of PBL is derived by use of a PBL model which is based on an analytic and actual form of K. Results show that the vertical velocity is a function of geostrophic vorticity, geostrophic wind speed, Coriolis parameter and the roughness of the ground, thus improving Charney-Eliassen's formula. The order of magnitude of the vertical velocity computed from our equation is in agreement with that from the latter, but more factors affecting the vertical velocity are included.     

THE ROLES OF BOUNDARY-LAYER DYNAMICS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION

In this paper,a tropical atmospheric model of relevance to shorts-term climate variations(Wang and Li 1993)is util-ized for study of the development of Madden-Julian oscillation.The model contains an interactive process ofboundary-layer Ekman convergence and precipitation heating.The model is solved by expanding dependent variables interms of parabolic cylindrical functions in the meridional direction and truncating three meridional modes n=0,2,4 forequatorial symmetric solutions.The free wave solutions obtained under long-wave approximation are induced as aKelvin wave and two Rossby waves.After considering the effect of boundary-layer dynamic process,the modifiedKelvin wave becomes unstable in long-wave bands with a typical growth rate on an order of 10~(-6) s~(-1)and an eastwardphase speed of 10 m s~(-1);the most unstable mode is wavenumber one.These theoretical results are consistent with the ob-served Madden-Julian oscillation in equatorial area.For the two modified Rossby waves,one with a smaller meridionalscale(n=4)decays except for extra long-waves;the other with a larger meridional scale(n=2)grows in short-wavebands.This may be relevant to explaining the westward propagation of super cloud clusters in the Madden-Julianoscillation.The theory suggests that the boundary-layer dynamic process is an important mechanism in the develop-ment of the Madden-Julian oscillation.     

THE STUDY OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF BOUNDARY LAYER OVER HILL TERRAIN

Taking advantage of the actual continuous materials of hilly area, we analyse the structures of the wind and temperature fields of planetary bounday layer over hill terrain under different weather conditions. As the results show that being similar to the situation in flat area, the planetary boundary layer has striking characteristics of daily variation and distinct regularity. We also find that in certain weather situation or under certain weather condition, these characteristics are principally determined by complex effect of such factors as the features of specific radiation field and intensity of turbulent exchange, and the advection of wind, and the thermodynamic effect of valley or lake-land, and the extending direction of valley, as well as difference between states of sunlessness and sunshine of the surface. Therein, the local environmental situation, where the reference station stands, is of considerable importance to the formation of the characteristics of planetary boundary over hill terrain (shortened as HTBL). These results not only help us to disclose the characteristics of planetary boundary layer over hill terrain in theory, but also are of great value in practice, like developing hilly area, and implementing environment conservation etc.     

EFFECT OF THE INDIAN PENINSULA ON THE COURSE OF THE ASIAN TROPICAL SUMMER MONSOON

In terms of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM3),the effect of the Indian Peninsulaon the course of the Asian tropical summer monsoon is simulated in this paper,and numericalexperimental results show that the Indian Peninsula plays a critical role in the establishmentprocess of the Asian tropical summer monsoon.When the CCM3 includes the Indian Peninsula,the model successfully simulates out the course of the Asian tropical summer monsoon,i.e.theSouth China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon at first bursts in middle May,while the Indian monsoonjust establishes until middle June.However when the Indian Peninsula topography is deleted in themodel,the Indian and SCS summer monsoons almost simultaneously establish in late May.Numerical results further indicate that in the former experiment the sensible heating of the IndianPeninsula warms the air above and produces evident temperature contrast between the peninsulaand its adjacent SCS and Bay of Bengal (BOB).which results in the strengthening and maintenanceof the BOB trough in the low-middle layer of the troposphere in the end of spring and early summerand thus the earliest establishment of the Asian tropical summer monsoon in the SCS in middleMay.However,the Indian summer monsoon just establishes until middle June when the strongwest wind over the Arabian Sea shifts northwards and cancels out the influence of the northwestflow behind the BOB trough.In the latter experiment the effect of Tibetan Plateau only produces avery weak BOB trough,and thus the SCS and Indian summer monsoons almost simultaneouslyestablish.     

APPLICATION OF THE VARIATIONAL METHOD OF TOVS DATA OVER THE TIBETAN PLATEAU IN IMPROVEMENT OF THE INITIAL FIELD OF NUMERICAL MODELS

In this paper,TOVS satellite data are used through variational method on the data-sparseplateau area.Diagnoses are carried out to find a way to solve the large error problem of modelinitial field.It is put forward that TOVS retrieval data can be used to improve the initial field ofnumerical prediction model on Tibetan Plateau area.Through variational method,TOVS data areprocessed and the liability of the initial information on the plateau is improved.Diagnostic resultsconfirm further that the application of TOVS retrieval data can improve our capability to describethe dynamic system features on the plateau and the objectivity of related initial information such asthe distribution of water vapor channel and stratification stability.     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE FORMATION MECHANISM OF THE ANTARCTIC OZONE HOLE

The global zonally averaged atmospheric chemistry model is developed in this paper.Theformation mechanism of the Antarctic ozone hole is numerically simulated using the model to checkthe viewpoints on the formation mechanism.The results show that:(1)The Antarctic ozone hole is a special phenomenon resulting from the heterogeneousreactions on the surface of the polar stratospheric cloud particles,under the special conditions oftemperature and circulation in Antarctic spring.The heterogeneous reactions reduce the NO_2concentration,resulting in the decrease of ozone production rate.The ozone content decreaseswhen its production is less than its destruction.This is the direct cause for the formation of theAntarctic ozone hole.(2)The impact of the polar vortex on the transport of trace species is not the determinativefactor in the formation of the Antarctic ozone hole.but makes the intensity of the ozone holechanged.(3)The solar cycles have negligible influence on the intensity of the Antarctic ozone holethrough photochemical reactions.     

EFFECT OF THE THERMAL FORCING ON THE SECONDARY CIRCULATION OF TYPHOONS

A non-dimensional secondary circulation equation for typhoons has been derived and then 11-yr com-positing typhoon data were used to estimate the thermally forced secondary circulation.The main resultshave been obtained as follows:(1)The diabatic heating and Cu vertical heat mixing are major thermal forcing factors.They have thesame magnitude of order.(2)The effects of eddy flux and Cu horizontal mixing of heat are of minor im-portance.(3)Ekman pumping and Cu vertical heat mixing cooperatively work.This feedback process isfavorable for the enhancement of the secondary circulation of typhoons.     

A STATISTICAL PREDICTING SCHEME OF THE INTENSITY OF THE STH OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

By performing error analysis of the information from the 48-hr forecasting charts of the 500-hPa fields by the B model over eastern Asia in the period of July to September 1982 and expansions of the height fields of westerlies and the subtropical zone by use of the Chebyshev polynomial and EOF, respectively, a scheme is developed for predicting the synchronous STH coefficient (i. e. time coefficient) in terms of the Chebyshev one, thus making possible statistical forecasting of the 500-hPa subtropical field within 48 hr. Tests with independent samples indicate that, to a certain extent, this scheme can be used in operational prediction as a reference.     

NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF THE EFFECTS OF AEROSOLS IN THE ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE CLIMATE

The climatic effects of the atmospheric boundary aerosols are studied by the use of a three-dimensional climatemodel.Simulated results show that the climate states both at the surface and in the atmosphere change remarkably whenthe aerosols with different optical thicknesses and properties are introduced into the atmospheric boundary layer of themodel.The aerosols absorb and scatter the solar shortwave radiation,therefore,they reduce the solar energy reachingthe ground surface and decrease the surface and the soil temperatures.The temperature in the boundary layer increasesbecause of the supplementary absorption of radiation by the boundary aerosols.In the atmosphere,the temperatures atall isobaric surfaces rise up except for the 100 hPa level.The atmospheric temperatures below the 500 hPa level aredirectly influenced by the boundary aerosols,while the atmospheric temperatures above the 500 hPa level are influencedby the heating due to convective condensation and the changes in the vertical motion field.Cyclonic differential circula-tions appear over the desert areas at the low levels,and anticyclonic differential circulations exist at the upper levels inthe horizontal flow fields.The vertical motions change in correspondence with the differential circulations.The changesin precipitation are directly related to that of vertical motions.The mechanisms of climate effects of the boundaryaerosols are also discussed in this paper.     

THE IMPACT OF INITIAL FORCED WIND ON THE PREDICTABILITY OF THE ZEBIAK-CANE COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL

With simultaneous observed sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), the difference between NCEP/NCAR 925hPa reanalysis wind stress anomaly (NCEPWSA) and FSU wind stress anomaly (FSUWSA) is analyzed, and the prediction abilities of Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model (ZC coupled model) with NCEPWSA and FSUWSA serving respectively as initialization wind are compared. The results are as follows. The distribution feature of NCEPWSA matches better with that of the observed SSTA than counterpart of FSUWSA both in 1980s and in 1990s; The ZC ocean model has a better skill under the forcing of NCEPWSA than that of FSUWSA, especially in 1990s. Meanwhile, the forecast abilities of the ZC coupled model in 1990s as well as in 1980s have been improved employing NCEPWSA as initialization wind instead of FSUWSA. Particularly, it succeeded in predicting 1997/1998 El Ni?o 6 to 8 months ahead; further analysis shows that on the antecedent and onset stages of the 1997/1998 El Ni?o event, the horizontal cold and warm distribution characteristics of the simulated SSTA from ZC ocean model, with NCEPWSA forcing compared to FSUWSA forcing, match better with counterparts of the corresponding observed SSTA, whereby providing better predication initialization conditions for ZC coupled model, which, in turn, is favorable to improve the forecast ability of the coupled model.     

A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE HEATING EFFECTS OF THE TIBETAN PLATEAU AND THE WESTERN PACIFIC

A zonal domain primitive equation modeling system(ZDMS)is used to study the effects of theinitial heating anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau and the western Pacific on the East Asian and theChinese summer climate,the relative importance and the mechanisms are discussed.Results showthat in spite of the different locations of the heating anomalies the influences of the two anomalyareas are much similar to each other when the scaling of the two areas is the same.The two areasof heating anomalies have their own affecting domains in which one is more important than the oth-er.In the western Pacific the heating anomaly over the western Pacific is more evident and in theTibetan Plateau area the heating anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau is more obvious.For the eastpart of China the effects of the two heating anomalies both exist and almost have the equal impor-tance.The initial anomaly of the sea surface temperature(SST)over the western Pacific can bekept during the entire time integration while in the Tibetan Plateau it can not be maintained.     

FURTHER STUDY ON THE PROPERTIES OF OPERATORS OF ATMOSPHERIC EQUATIONS AND THE EXISTENCE OF ATTRACTOR

The equivalent operator equation is derived from the full primitive nonlinear equations of theatmospheric motion and the properties and physical senses of the operators are studied.In theinfinite dimensional Hilbert space,the global asymptotic behavior of the atmosphere system withthe non-stationary external forcing is studied under the assumption of the bounded externalforcing.The existence theorems of the global absorbing set and the global attractor are obtained.Thus,the conclusions deduced from the large-scale atmosphere(Li and Chou 1996 a;1996 b)areextended to the general atmosphere.     

THE INTERFACE EFFECT AND THE FORMATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS

Based upon the analysis of several different causes for the low-level jet along the east side of the Rocky Mountains, the concept of "Interface Effect" is established. The basic mechanism for the formation of the low-level jet in North America has been found to be the compression and divergence, under the driving of ageostrophic winds, of the air columns between two surfaces-the ground and the bottom of inversion-which slope with different patterns in a cross-section normal to the jet stream. As a result, the air parcel is accelerated along the streamline and the anticyclonic shear of the current increased. Also, the diurnal variation of the jet is determined by the interface effect.     

AN ANALYSIS OF THE STRUCTURE OF THUNDERSTORM IN THE ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER

The structure of thunderstorm in the atmospheric boundary layer in Beijing area is analysed by using three-year data of tower. It is indicated that the outflow current of the thunderstorm in the lower layer is a sort of density current. An area of evident wind direction shear is found at about half an hour to one hour before the arrival of the gust front.The maximum intensity of the shear can reach 0.35sec-1.The inner structure within the density current is also very complicated. At the nocturnal stable boundary layer in summertime, the development of the convective motions is often triggered due to the instability of the Kelvin-Helmholtz wave.     

EFFECTS OF THE ENVELOPE DEGREE OF OROGRAPHY ON THE SIMULATED CLIMATE PROPERTIES

A primitive equation model with a zonal domain and a p-σ incorporated vertical coordinate systemis used to study the effects of the envelope degree of orography on the simulated properties of bothwinter and summer climates.Results show that the orography with a larger envelope degree can im-prove the simulations to certain extent,especially in winter.It is found that the simulated propertiesof climate are mainly determined by the co-effects of the land-sea and the orographic distributions,and the envelope degree of orography has a secondary effect.However it should be taken properly inorder to improve simulations:otherwise,it would be harmful.Different envelope degrees of orogra-phy can be adopted in different areas.     

STUDY ON THE STABILITY STRUCTURE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS,THE BIFURCATION OF PHASE.PATH CHARACTERISTICS AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE TIME-OSCILLATION OF HEAT SOURCE

This paper discusses the stability structure and the bifurcation of phase path characteristics of synopticscale system.The analytic results show that the catastrophe of the synoptic scale disturbance may be caused bythe nonlinear effects of barotropic and baroclinic instability and advection of ambient large-scale flow.Also,foregoing nonlinear effects on the speed of development and decay of the system are presented in the processesdeviating from or approaching to equilibrium state.It has been found that there is a resonance phenomenonbetween the time-oscillation of heat source and the atmospheric disturbance.     

MODELS FOR MEDIUM- AND LONG-RANGE FORECASTING OF THE AMOUNT OF MIGRATION OF FIRSTGENERATION MOTHS INTO THE OUTBREAKING AREA OF THE SECOND-GENERATION ARMYWORM

With the aim to establish an "optimum" regression, an attempt is made through stepwise regression analysis to construct medium- and long-range models for forecasting the amount of migrants of the first-generation adults of armyworm into the outbreaking area of the second-generation armyworm in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia by applying precedent data of meteorological elements, general circulation features and insect pest situation. The formulas established are found to be rather satisfactory, which add a new approach to the simulation prediction of the armyworm.