Progress in Earthquake Science and Technology in China: Review and Prospects (Ⅰ)

In the article the author looks back the hard development course and great progress in earth quake science and technology in China during the last near a half of century and expounds the following 3 aspects: (1) The strong desire of the whole society to mitigate seismic disasters and reduce the effect of earthquakes on social-economic live is a great driving force to push forward the development of earthquake science and technology in China; (2) To better ensure people‘ s life and property, sustainable economic development, and social stability is an essential purpose to drive the development of earthquake science and technology in China; and (3) To insist on the dialectical connection of setup of technical system for seismic monitoring with the scientific research of earthquakes and to better handle the relation between crucial task, current scientif ic level, and the feasibility are the important principles to advance the earthquake science and technology in China. Some success and many setbacks in earthquake disaster mitigation consistently enrich our knowledge regarding the complexity of the conditions for earthquake occurrence and the process of earthquake preparation, promote the reconstruction and modernization of technical system for earthquake monitoring, and deepen the scientific research of earthquakes. During the last 5 years, the improvement and modernization of technical system for earthquake monitoring have clearly provided the technical support to study and practice of earthquake prediction and pre caution, give prominence to key problems and broaden the field of scientific research of earth quakes. These have enabled us to get some new recognition of the conditions for earthquake oc currence and process of earthquake preparation, characteristics of seismic disaster, and mecha nism for earthquake generation in China‘s continent. The progress we have made not only en courages us to enhance the effectiveness of earthquake disaster mitigation, but also provides a basis for accelerating further development of earthquake science and technology in China in the new century, especially in the 10th five-year plan. Based on the history reviewed, the author sets forth a general requirement for develop ment of earthquake science and technology in China and brings out 10 aspects to be stressed and strengthened at present and in the future. These are: upgrade and setup of the network of digitized seismic observation; upgrade and setup of the network for observation of seismic pre cursors; setup of the network for observation of strong motion; setup of the laboratories for ex periment on seismic regime; establishment of technical system for seismic information, emer gency command and urgent rescue; research on short-term and imminent earthquake predic tion; research on intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction; research on attenuation of seismic ground motion, mechanism for seismic disaster, and control on seismic disaster; ba sic research fields related to seismology and geoscience. We expect that these efforts will signifi cantly elevate the level of earthquake science and technology in China to the advanced interna tional level, improve theories, techniques, and methods for earthquake precaution and predic tion, and enhance the effectiveness of earthquake disaster mitigation.     

淇、卫河流域“96·8”致洪暴雨过程的数值模拟

应用LASGREMM模式 ,对淇、卫河流域“96·8”致洪暴雨过程进行了模拟预报分析。结果表明 ,LAS GREM模式不仅能较准确地预报淇、卫河流域暴雨落区 ,而且可以进一步分析天气过程的特点及演变情况     

雅江地块的震兆分析与强震危险性探讨

分析了雅江地块的构造环境、地震活动和震兆异常，探讨2001年雅江6．0级地震、2002年新龙5．3级地震发生后雅江地块的强震趋势。重点对理塘-德巫断裂带，新龙、白玉、德格及贡觉一带地区的异常地震活动图像进行分析，认为该区存在强震填空的潜在危险性。     

巴楚-伽师Ms6.8地震地磁异常特点分析

通过分析、比较1996--2003年喀什地震台站记录到的新疆伽师及附近地区发生的多次6级地震的地磁前兆异常特征，发现在这几组地震活动过程中喀什地震台的地磁表现出不同的异常特征，说明与地震破裂特征有更深层次的相关性，且地磁响应比异常和总强度差值异常在一定程度上反映了台站周围小范围的震源区介质电性结构的变化。巴楚-伽师6．8级地震前地磁异常特征并不十分突出，有别于1996—1998年伽师强震群震前地磁异常量较丰富的特点。     

中国周边地区强震与中国大陆7级以上地震活动的关系

通过对中国周边地区强震与中国大陆地区强震活动的关系分析，发现中国大陆周边地区活跃时段期间和其后3年是中国大陆地区7级以上地震活动的主要活动时期，周边地区强震活动增强后，中国大陆内部有可能发生7级以上地震，强震活动可能会逐步进入高潮，南北地震带中段未来数年发生7级以上地震的危险性较大．     

几种空气质量预报方法的预报效果对比分析

目前应用于我国各个城市空气质量预报业务的预报方法主要有三种 :数值模式预报、统计预报和综合经验预报。这几种预报方法都有其各自的优势 ,同时也存在一些不足。应用以上方法对天津市市区进行空气质量业务预报 ,通过实测资料与预报结果进行对比分析 ,给出这几种方法在天津市区空气质量预报中的预报效果客观评价。     

Delayed geochemical hazard: Concept, digital model and case study

Delayed Geochemical Hazard (DGH briefly) presents the whole process of a kind of serious ecological and environmental hazard caused by sudden reactivation and sharp release of long-term accumulated pollutant from stable species to active ones in soil or sediment system due to the change of physical-chemical conditions (such as temperature, pH, Eh, moisture, the concentrations of organic matters, etc.) or the decrease of environment capacity. The characteristics of DGH are discussed. The process of a typical DGH can be expressed as a nonlinear polynomial. The points where the derivative functions of the first and second orders of the polynomial reach zero, minimum and maximum are keys for risk assessment and harzard pridication.The process and mechanism of the hazard is due to the transform of pollutant among different species principally. The concepts of "total releasable content of pollutant", TRCP, and "total concentration of active specie", TCAS, are necessarily defined to describe the mechanism of DGH. The possibility of the temporal and spatial propagation is discussed. Case study shows that there exists a transform mechanism of "gradual release" and "chain reaction" among the species of the exchangeable and the bounds to carbonate, iron and manganese oxides and organic matter, thus causing the delayed geochemical hazard.     

基于地震叠后反演与属性分析的页岩气有利储层预测

中国南方页岩气勘查区块多为勘探新区,仅部署少量二维地震和地质钻井,且资料品质普遍较差,页岩气储层预测很难像成熟勘探区一样开展系统性研究工作,如何对现有数据进行充分挖掘是解决勘探新区页岩气储层预测的关键。为此,综合利用不依赖初始模型的叠后约束稀疏脉冲反演方法和多种频率类属性分析技术,开展页岩气有利储层预测。地震反演能够获得多种参数参与储层预测,属性分析能够从多种角度识别储层,通过多种信息综合应用和叠合分析以提高储层预测精确性和有效性,为新区页岩气勘探提供了一种新的思路。该项技术应用于南方某区块,圈定了页岩气的有利目标区,在该区部署的两口水平井均获得高产工业气流。     

Directional dependence of P- and S-wave propagation and polarization in foliated rocks from the Kola superdeep well: Evidence from laboratory measurements and calculations based on TOF neutron diffraction

We have measured P- and S-wave velocities on two amphibolite and two gneiss samples from the Kola superdeep borehole as a function of pressure (up to 600 MPa) and temperature (up to 600 °C). The velocity measurements include compressional (Vp) and shear wave velocities (Vs1, Vs2) propagating in three orthogonal directions which were in general not parallel to inherent rock symmetry axes or planes. The measurements are accompanied by 3D-velocities calculations based on lattice preferred orientation (LPO) obtained by TOF (Time Of Flight) neutron diffraction analysis which allows the investigation of bulk volumes up to several cubic centimetres due to the high penetration depth of neutrons. The LPO-based numerical velocity calculations give important information on the different contribution of the various rock-forming minerals to bulk elastic anisotropy and on the relations of seismic anisotropy, shear wave splitting, and shear wave polarization to the structural reference frame (foliation and lineation). Comparison with measured velocities obtained for the three propagation directions that were not in accordance with the structural frame of the rocks (foliation and lineation) demonstrate that for shear waves propagating through anisotropic rocks the vibration directions are as important as the propagation directions. The study demonstrates that proper measurement of shear wave splitting by means of two orthogonal polarized sending and receiving shear wave transducers is only possible when their propagation and polarization directions are parallel and normal to foliation and lineation, respectively.