Ice‐cover variability on shallow lakes at high latitudes: model simulations and observations

A one‐dimensional thermodynamic model for simulating lake‐ice phenology is presented and evaluated. The model can be driven with observed daily or hourly atmospheric forcing of air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, cloud amount and snowfall. In addition to computing the energy balance components, key model output includes the temperature profile at an arbitrary number of levels within the ice/snow (or the water temperature if there is no ice) and ice thickness (clear ice and snow‐ice) on a daily basis, as well as freeze‐up and break‐up dates. The lake‐ice model is used to simulate ice‐growth processes on shallow lakes in arctic, sub‐arctic, and high‐boreal forest environments. Model output is compared with field and remote sensing observations gathered over several ice seasons. Simulated ice thickness, including snow‐ice formation, compares favourably with field measurements. Ice‐on and ice‐off dates are also well simulated when compared with field and satellite observations, with a mean absolute difference of 2 days. Model simulations and observations illustrate the key role that snow cover plays on the seasonal evolution of ice thickness and the timing of spring break‐up. It is also shown that lake morphometry, depth in particular, is a determinant of ice‐off dates for shallow lakes at high latitudes. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fast iterative solution of large undrained soil‐structure interaction problems

In view of rapid developments in iterative solvers, it is timely to re‐examine the merits of using mixed formulation for incompressible problems. This paper presents extensive numerical studies to compare the accuracy of undrained solutions resulting from the standard displacement formulation with a penalty term and the two‐field mixed formulation. The standard displacement and two‐field mixed formulations are solved using both direct and iterative approaches to assess if it is cost‐effective to achieve more accurate solutions. Numerical studies of a simple footing problem show that the mixed formulation is able to solve the incompressible problem ‘exactly’, does not create pressure and stress instabilities, and obviate the need for an ad hoc penalty number. In addition, for large‐scale problems where it is not possible to perform direct solutions entirely within available random access memory, it turns out that the larger system of equations from mixed formulation also can be solved much more efficiently than the smaller system of equations arising from standard formulation by using the symmetric quasi‐minimal residual (SQMR) method with the generalized Jacobi (GJ) preconditioner. Iterative solution by SQMR with GJ preconditioning also is more elegant, faster, and more accurate than the popular Uzawa method. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Risk Management for Petroleum Reservoir Production: A Simulation-Based Study of Prediction

We consider numerical solutions of the Darcy and Buckley–Leverett equations for flow in porous media. These solutions depend on a realization of a random field that describes the reservoir permeability. The main content of this paper is to formulate and analyze a probability model for the numerical coarse grid solution error. We explore the extent to which the coarse grid oil production rate is sufficient to predict future oil production rates. We find that very early oil production data is sufficient to reduce the prediction error in oil production by about 30%, relative to the prior probability prediction.     

Photochemical characteristics of high and low ozone episodes observed in the Taehwa Forest observatory (TFO) in June 2011 near Seoul South Korea

We present a comprehensive discussion on what cause high ozone episodes at a suburban photochemical observation site of the Seoul Metropolitan Area (population ～23 million). The observational site, Taehwa Research Forest (TRF), is situated ～30 km from the center of Seoul. In June 2011, we observed two very distinctive ozone periods-high ozone (peak up to 120 ppbv) and low ozone (peak up to 60 ppbv) in the mid and early month, respectively. The trace gas measurement dataset, especially CO and NO _X clearly indicate that less anthropogenic influences during the high ozone period. Volatile organic compound (VOC) measurement results show that at the observational site, biogenic VOCs (mostly isoprene) contribute most of chemical reactivity towards OH, although toluene from anthropogenic activities was observed in higher concentrations. Back-trajectory analysis indicates that air-masses from the forest part of Korea Peninsula were dominant influences during the high ozone episode event. On the other hand, Aged air masses from China were the dominant influence during the low ozone episode event. Model calculations conducted using the University of Washington Chemical Mechanism (UWCM) box model, also consistently show that BVOC, especially isoprene photochemistry, can be the significantly contribution to local ozone formation in the given photochemical environments of TRF. These research results strongly suggest that ozone control strategy in the Eastern Asian megacities, mostly situated in surrounding forest areas should be based on the comprehensive scientific understanding in BVOC photochemistry and interplays between anthropogenic and biogenic interactions.     

Low-latitude control of interhemispheric sea-surface temperature contrast in the tropical Atlantic over the past 21 kyears: the possible role of SE trade winds

To stimulate a discussion on the role of tropical atmospheric circulation versus thermohaline circulation changes for tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) variations, we present a record of the SST contrast (SST) between the tropical northwest and southeast Atlantic from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Late Holocene. The SST was calculated from two alkenone-derived SST records; one from the Caribbean Sea and the other from the Angola Basin. Changes in the cross-equatorial SST were then compared with an abundance record of Florisphaera profunda from the equatorial Atlantic, which is indicative of SE trade-wind induced variations in thermocline depth in the equatorial divergence zone. This comparison implies that the Last Glacial Maximum, the Younger Dryas, and the Mid to Late Holocene were periods of strong SE trade winds, which led to an intense upwelling-related cooling in the southeast Atlantic and concurrently enhanced advection of warm tropical South Atlantic waters into the western tropical Atlantic. Accordingly, a coupled ocean-atmospheric process has probably created a dipole-like SST distribution pattern in the tropical Atlantic during these three distinct climatic periods. In contrast, Heinrich Event 1, the Bølling-Allerød, and the Early Holocene were intervals of weakened SE trade winds, causing a warming in the southeast Atlantic. However, synchronous warming in both regions during Heinrich Event 1 can be partially attributed to a weakening of thermohaline overturning which caused a reduced northward heat transport from the low-latitude to the high-latitude North Atlantic.     

The contact binary system YY Eri

Relatively new and unanalysed photometric data-sets of the contact binary system YY Eri are presented. The light curves have been analysed using information limit optimization techniques, and the Binary Maker program of Bradstreet (1992).Comparison of the results allows insight into determinacy questions affecting the W UMa type of light curve, which relates to our general understanding of contact binaries. A limiting contact configuration cannot be ruled out on the basis of empirical data-analysis alone.Very careful analysis of the photospheric flux distribution over the surface of the Sun may help establish appropriate values of the gravity brightening parameter for cool dwarf stars. At present, however, empirical photometric information on contact binaries is non-discriminatory: i.e. alternative cosmogonies can find alternative support from available evidence. The implication is then for more and better observational data to allow better real independent parameter determination.     

A method of colour excess determination for classical cepheids

By use of the reddening free [m ₁], [c ₁], and indices data inuvby photometric system for three classical cepheids whose reddening values had been determined with the aid of photometry of field stars, three intrinsic relations of [m ₁]–(b–y), [c ₁]–(b–y), and –(b–y) have been established. It was shown that these three relations can be used to determine the colour excesses for other classical cepheids.     

Emitting region of sodium lines in solar prominences

We have calculated the emission spectra of hydrogen and sodium atoms in the cool part of prominence models which satisfy simultaneously the constraints of radiative transfer, statistical equilibrium and charge-particle conservations.In the considered range of our model parameters, emission strengths of H and Nai D lines increase with the temperature and the total number density. Low-pressure models raise the ionization rate highly but yield very weak Nai D line intensities, since these model prominences contain small amounts of free electrons and sodium atoms which have a deep relation with the formation of sodium lines. We find that sodium D lines should be emitted in the high pressure region of prominences, and that their intensities are difficult to attain in the cool core of any model prominence with a temperature as low as 4000 K. In order to explain consistently the spectral emissions of H and Nai D lines observed in quiescent prominences, a total number density higher than 4 x 10¹¹ cm^-3 and a temperature over 5000 K are required at least in the cool part of prominences.Contributions from the Kwasan and Hida Observatories, University of Kyoto, No. 282.     

Amphibole Ar/Ar Geochronology from the Okcheon Metamorphic Belt, South Korea and its Tectonic Implications

An understanding of the Okcheon Metamorphic Belt (OMB) in South Korea is central to unraveling the tectono-metamorphic evolution of East Asia. Amphibole-bearing rocks in the OMB occur as calcsilicate layers and lenses in psammitic rocks, in the psammitic rocks themselves, and in the mafic volcanic layers and intrusives. Most amphiboles fail to show ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar plateau ages; those that do have ages ranging from 132 to 975 Ma. The disturbed age pattern and wide variation in ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages can be related to metamorphic grade, retrograde chemical reactions, excess Ar and amphibole composition. The oldest age (975 Ma) can be interpreted either as an old igneous or metamorphic age predating sedimentation or a false age caused by excess Ar. The youngest age of 132 Ma and the disturbed age pattern found in amphiboles from rocks located close to Jurassic granitoids are the result of retrograde thermal metamorphic effects accompanying intrusion of the granitoids. Some medium- or coarse-grained amphiboles in the calcsilicates are aggregates of fine-grained crystals. As a result, they are heterogeneous and prove to be readily affected by excess Ar. A disturbed age pattern in amphiboles from the calcsilicates occurring in the high-grade metamorphic zone may also be the product of excess Ar. On the other hand, the disturbed pattern of amphiboles present in the calcsilicates from the low-grade metamorphic zone could arise from both excess Ar and mixed ages. However, amphiboles from psammitic rocks and some calcsilicates in the high-grade metamorphic zone and in intrusive metabasites display real plateau ages of 237 to 261 Ma. The temperature conditions in the high-grade metamorphic zone were higher than the argon closing temperature for amphibole, and the amphiboles in this zone give plateau ages only when they are homogeneous in composition, lack excess Ar, and have not been thermally affected by intrusion of the granitoids. The unmodified ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages prove rather younger than the age of the Late Paleozoic metamorphic event of 280 to 300 Ma, but they are close to muscovite K-Ar ages of 263 to 277 Ma. These ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar amphibole ages are interpreted as the time of cooling that followed the main regional, intermediate-P/T metamorphic climax. The results demonstrate that interpretation of ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar amphibole ages in an area subjected to several metamorphic events can be accomplished only by undertaking a thorough tectono-metamorphic study, accompanied by detailed chemical analysis of the amphiboles.     

Effect of thickness of planar nozzles on erosion depth of levee soils subjected to plunging water

In this study, the effect of the thickness of a planar jet on the erosion depth when the jet impinges on a surface composed of cohesive soil was analytically and numerically evaluated. The results showed that the erosion depth was practically independent of the nozzle thickness for erosion depths shallower than the potential core length (i.e. the region of the jet in which the central flow velocity is the same as the nozzle velocity). The relation between nozzle thickness and erosion depth was non-linear with continuously variable slope for erosion depths deeper than the potential core length. Finally, the relation was approximately linear when the erosion depth converged to the equilibrium erosion depth. The findings of this study indicate that direct and fast prediction of the erosion depth in the field is possible using the data from a small scale soil erosion test with similar flow velocities.