Ice‐cover variability on shallow lakes at high latitudes: model simulations and observations

A one‐dimensional thermodynamic model for simulating lake‐ice phenology is presented and evaluated. The model can be driven with observed daily or hourly atmospheric forcing of air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, cloud amount and snowfall. In addition to computing the energy balance components, key model output includes the temperature profile at an arbitrary number of levels within the ice/snow (or the water temperature if there is no ice) and ice thickness (clear ice and snow‐ice) on a daily basis, as well as freeze‐up and break‐up dates. The lake‐ice model is used to simulate ice‐growth processes on shallow lakes in arctic, sub‐arctic, and high‐boreal forest environments. Model output is compared with field and remote sensing observations gathered over several ice seasons. Simulated ice thickness, including snow‐ice formation, compares favourably with field measurements. Ice‐on and ice‐off dates are also well simulated when compared with field and satellite observations, with a mean absolute difference of 2 days. Model simulations and observations illustrate the key role that snow cover plays on the seasonal evolution of ice thickness and the timing of spring break‐up. It is also shown that lake morphometry, depth in particular, is a determinant of ice‐off dates for shallow lakes at high latitudes. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fast iterative solution of large undrained soil‐structure interaction problems

In view of rapid developments in iterative solvers, it is timely to re‐examine the merits of using mixed formulation for incompressible problems. This paper presents extensive numerical studies to compare the accuracy of undrained solutions resulting from the standard displacement formulation with a penalty term and the two‐field mixed formulation. The standard displacement and two‐field mixed formulations are solved using both direct and iterative approaches to assess if it is cost‐effective to achieve more accurate solutions. Numerical studies of a simple footing problem show that the mixed formulation is able to solve the incompressible problem ‘exactly’, does not create pressure and stress instabilities, and obviate the need for an ad hoc penalty number. In addition, for large‐scale problems where it is not possible to perform direct solutions entirely within available random access memory, it turns out that the larger system of equations from mixed formulation also can be solved much more efficiently than the smaller system of equations arising from standard formulation by using the symmetric quasi‐minimal residual (SQMR) method with the generalized Jacobi (GJ) preconditioner. Iterative solution by SQMR with GJ preconditioning also is more elegant, faster, and more accurate than the popular Uzawa method. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing climate change vulnerability with group multi-criteria decision making approaches

This study developed an approach to assess the vulnerability to climate change and variability using various group multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods and identified the sources of uncertainty in assessments. MCDM methods include the weighted sum method, one of the most common MCDM methods, the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), fuzzy-based TOPSIS, TOPSIS in a group-decision environment, and TOPSIS combined with the voting methods (Borda count and Copeland’s methods). The approach was applied to a water-resource system in South Korea, and the assessment was performed at the province level by categorizing water resources into water supply and conservation, flood control and water-quality sectors according to their management objectives. Key indicators for each category were profiled with the Delphi surveys, a series of questionnaires interspersed with controlled opinion feedback. The sectoral vulnerability scores were further aggregated into one composite score for water-resource vulnerability. Rankings among different MCDM methods varied in different degrees, but noticeable differences in the rankings from the fuzzy- and non-fuzzy-based methods suggested that the uncertainty with crisp data, rather widely used, should be acknowledged in vulnerability assessment. Also rankings from the voting-based methods did not differ much from those from non-voting-based (i.e., average-based) methods. Vulnerability rankings varied significantly among the different sectors of the water-resource systems, highlighting the need to assess the vulnerability of water-resource systems according to objectives, even though one composite index is often used for simplicity.     

Effect of wave amplitude on turbulent flow in a wavy channel by direct numerical simulation

The present study numerically investigates the characteristics of three-dimensional turbulent flow in a wavy channel. For the purpose of a careful observation of the effect of the wave amplitude on the turbulent flow, numerical simulations are performed at a various range of the wave amplitude to wavelength ratio (0.01?α/λ?0.05), where the wavelength is fixed with the same value of the mean channel height (H). The immersed boundary method is used to handle the wavy surface in a rectangular grid system, using the finite volume method. The Reynolds number (Re=U_bH/ν) based on the bulk velocity (U_b) is fixed at 6760. The present computational results for a wavy surface are well compared with those of references. When α/λ=0.02, the small recirculating flow occurs near the trough at the instant, but the mean reverse flow is not observed. In the mean flow field, the reverse flow appears from α/λ=0.03 among the wave amplitude considered in this study. The domain of the mean reverse flow defined by the locations of separation and reattachment depends strongly on the wave amplitude. The pressure drag coefficient augments with increasing the wave amplitude. The friction drag coefficient shows the increase and decrease behavior according to the wave amplitude. The quantitative information about the flow variables such as the distribution of pressure and shear stress on the wavy surface is highlighted.     

Spatial modeling of annual minimum and maximum temperatures in Iceland

Bayesian hierarchical modeling is applied to the analysis of annual minimum and maximum temperatures. In both cases the generalized extreme value distribution is selected as the marginal distribution at each site due to its flexibility and theoretical basis. This distribution has three unknown parameters, a location parameter, a scale parameter and a shape parameter. The location and scale parameters are assumed to vary across sites while the shape parameter is assumed to be the same for all sites. The location and the scale parameters are modeled as two independent Gaussian spatial processes which are governed by the Matérn correlation function. These spatial processes play a central role in spatial predictions at unobserved sites. The location parameter is also modeled with a common time effect which includes a linear trend and a linear site effect with altitude, distance to open sea, latitude and longitude as covariates. This model allows for spatial predictions for any set of unobserved sites, the scale of the grid can be as fine as possible as long as the covariates are observed at each of the unobserved sites. Data on the annual minimum and maximum temperatures in Iceland from 1961 to 2009?at 72 sites are analyzed and used to predict the 2nd percentile of the minimum temperature for the 12-month period from July 2011 to June 2012 and the 98th percentile of maximum temperature for the year 2011 for a large set of unobserved sites across Iceland at which the covariates are available. The spatial predictions reveal that the 2nd percentile of minimum temperature for 2011 to 2012 reaches ?35°C in the central part of Iceland and ranges from ?12 to ?22°C around the coast of Iceland with the lowest coastal temperatures in the Northern part and the Northeastern part. The 98th percentile of maximum temperature in 2011 ranges from 10 to 30°C where the warmest areas are found in the Eastern part, the North-Eastern part and the Southern part of the country. The estimated increase in minimum and maximum temperatures over the years 1961 to 2009 is 0.71 and 0.47°C per decade, respectively, while the average annual temperature increased 0.24°C per decade over the same period.     

Suggestion of a method for landslide early warning using the change in the volumetric water content gradient due to rainfall infiltration

An early warning system can be an effective measure to reduce the damage caused by landslides by facilitating the timely evacuation of residents from a landslide-prone area. Early detection of landslide triggering across a broad range of natural terrain types can be accomplished by monitoring rainfall and the physical property changes of soils in real time or near-real time. This study involved the installation of a real-time monitoring system to observe physical property changes in soils in a valley during rainfall events. This monitoring included the measurement of volumetric water content, which was compared with the results of laboratory flume tests to identify landslide indicators in the soils. The response of volumetric water content to rainfall events is more immediate than that of pore-water pressure, and volumetric water content retains its maximum value for some time before slope failure. Therefore, an alternative method for landslide monitoring can be based on the observation of volumetric water content and its changes over time at shallow soil depths. Although no landslide occurred, the field monitoring results showed a directly proportional relationship between the effective cumulative rainfall and the gradient of volumetric water content per unit time (t/t _max). This preliminary study thus related slope failure to the volumetric water content gradient as a function of rainfall. Laboratory results showed that a high amount of rainfall and a high gradient of volumetric water content could induce slope failure. Based on these results, it is possible to suggest a threshold value of the volumetric water content gradient demarcating the conditions for slope stability and slope failure. This threshold can thus serve as the basis of an early warning system for landslides considering both rainfall and soil properties.     

Temperature-Dependent Bifurcated Seasonal Shift of Phytoplankton Community Composition in the Coastal Water off Southwestern Korea

Ocean Science Journal - Coastal water around the archipelago off southwestern Korea has been bathed in an unprecedented pool of warm water in summer in recent years. Here, we examined phytoplankton...     

Metal Ion Extraction with Bipyridine Derivatives as Chelating Ligands in Supercritical Carbon Dioxide

Three fluorinated bipyridine ligands have been designed and synthesized as chelating agents for the extraction of metal ions in supercritical CO₂ (sc‐CO₂). The ligand solubilities in sc‐CO₂ were investigated at different temperatures and pressures, and the measured data have been correlated using a semiempirical model. The calculated results showed satisfactory agreement with the experimental data. Based on these data, metal ion extraction with the three compounds as chelating agents in sc‐CO₂ was performed from spiked filter paper, whereby ligand 1 showed the highest extraction efficiency, especially for Ni²⁺ and Cu²⁺. The extraction constants, K_ex, of the three chelating ligands were seen to increase with increasing extraction efficiency for the same metal ion in the same extraction system.     

Evaluation of density in layer compaction using SASW method

SASW test, which is non-intrusive and rapid in the field application, was used to evaluate the layer density in the roller compaction without performing the complicated inversion process. The concept of normalized shear wave velocity was introduced to minimize the effect of confinement in the density evaluation. SASW test was performed to determine the shear wave velocity of the layer, and the free–free resonant column (FF–RC) test was adopted to determine the correlation between the normalized shear wave velocity and density of the site, which is almost unique independent of confinement. Testing and data reduction procedures of both tests were briefly discussed and an evaluation procedure of the field density was proposed by effectively combining in-situ shear wave velocity determined by the SASW test with the correlation between the normalized shear wave velocity and the density determined by the FF–RC test. Finally, the feasibility of the proposed method was verified by performing a field case study at Hoengsung road construction site. Field densities determined by the proposed method matched well with those determined by sand cone tests, showing the potential of applying the proposed method in the field density evaluation.