Seasonal and diurnal variability of the meteor flux at high latitudes observed using PFISR

We report in this and a companion paper [Fentzke, J.T., Janches, D., Sparks, J.J., 2008. Latitudinal and seasonal variability of the micrometeor input function: A study using model predictions and observations from Arecibo and PFISR. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, this issue, doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2008.07.015] a complete seasonal study of the micrometeor input function (MIF) at high latitudes using meteor head-echo radar observations performed with the Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar (PFISR). This flux is responsible for a number of atmospheric phenomena; for example, it could be the source of meteoric smoke that is thought to act as condensation nuclei in the formation of ice particles in the polar mesosphere. The observations presented here were performed for full 24-h periods near the summer and winter solstices and spring and autumn equinoxes, times at which the seasonal variability of the MIF is predicted to be large at high latitudes [Janches, D., Heinselman, C.J., Chau, J.L., Chandran, A., Woodman, R., 2006. Modeling of the micrometeor input function in the upper atmosphere observed by High Power and Large Aperture Radars, JGR, 11, A07317, doi:10.1029/2006JA011628]. Precise altitude and radar instantaneous line-of-sight (radial) Doppler velocity information are obtained for each of the hundreds of events detected every day. We show that meteor rates, altitude, and radial velocity distributions have a large seasonal dependence. This seasonal variability can be explained by a change in the relative location of the meteoroid sources with respect to the observer. Our results show that the meteor flux into the upper atmosphere is strongly anisotropic and its characteristics must be accounted for when including this flux into models attempting to explain related aeronomical phenomena. In addition, the measured acceleration and received signal strength distribution do not seem to depend on season; which may suggest that these observed quantities do not have a strong dependence on entry angle.     

Ice‐jam flood risk assessment and mapping

In northern regions, river ice‐ jam flooding can be more severe than open‐water flooding causing property and infrastructure damages, loss of human life and adverse impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Very little has been performed to assess the risk induced by ice‐related floods because most risk assessments are limited to open‐water floods. The specific objective of this study is to incorporate ice‐jam numerical modelling tools (e.g. RIVICE, Monte‐Carlo simulation) into flood hazard and risk assessment along the Peace River at the Town of Peace River (TPR) in Alberta, Canada. Adequate historical data for different ice‐jam and open‐water flooding events were available for this study site and were useful in developing ice‐affected stage‐frequency curves. These curves were then applied to calibrate a numerical hydraulic model, which simulated different ice jams and flood scenarios along the Peace River at the TPR. A Monte‐Carlo analysis was then carried out to acquire an ensemble of water level profiles to determine the 1 : 100‐year and 1 : 200‐year annual exceedance probability flood stages for the TPR. These flood stages were then used to map flood hazard and vulnerability of the TPR. Finally, the flood risk for a 200‐year return period was calculated to be an average of $32/m²/a ($/m²/a corresponds to a unit of annual expected damages or risk). Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Snow cover variability and snowmelt in a high‐altitude ungauged catchment

Snow variability is an integrated indicator of climate change, and it has important impacts on runoff regimes and water availability in high‐altitude catchments. Remote sensing techniques can make it possible to quantitatively detect the snow cover changes and associated hydrological effects in those poorly gauged regions. In this study, the spatial–temporal variations of snow cover and snow melting time in the Tuotuo River basin, which is the headwater of the Yangtze River, were evaluated based on satellite information from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer snow cover product, and the snow melting equivalent and its contribution to the total runoff and baseflow were estimated by using degree–day model. The results showed that the snow cover percentage and the tendency of snow cover variability increased with rising altitude. From 2000 to 2012, warmer and wetter climate change resulted in an increase of the snow cover area. Since the 1960s, the start time for snow melt has become earlier by 0.9–3 days/10a and the end time of snow melt has become later by 0.6–2.3 days/10a. Under the control of snow cover and snow melting time, the equivalent of snow melting runoff in the Tuotuo River basin has been fluctuating. The average contributions of snowmelt to baseflow and total runoff were 19.6% and 6.8%, respectively. Findings from this study will serve as a reference for future research in areas where observational data are deficient and for planning of future water management strategies for the source region of the Yangtze River. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Local‐scale variability of seepage and hydraulic conductivity in a shallow gravel‐bed river

Seepage rate and direction measured with a seepage metre modified for use in flowing water were greatly variable along a 300‐m reach of a shallow, gravel‐bed river and depended primarily on the local‐scale bed topography. The median value of seepage measured at 24 locations was 24 cm/day, but seepage measured at specific sites ranged from ?340 to +237 cm/day. Seepage also varied substantially over periods of hours to days and occasionally reversed direction in response to evolution of the sediment bed. Vertical hydraulic conductivity was related to seepage direction and was larger during upward seepage than during downward seepage; with differences ranging from 4 to 40% in areas of active sediment transport to more than an order of magnitude in areas where current was too slow to mobilize bed sediment. Seepage was poorly related to hydraulic gradient measured over vertical distances of 0·3 m and appeared to be opposite the hydraulic gradient at 18% of the locations where both parameters were measured. Results demonstrate the scale dependence of these measurements in coarse‐grained hyporheic settings and indicate that hydraulic gradients should be determined over a much shorter vertical increment if used to indicate exchange across the sediment–water interface. Published in 2009 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mesospheric temperature trends derived from ground-based LF phase-height observations at mid-latitudes: comparison with model simulations

From indirect phase-height observations in the LF range at mid-latitudes, significant negative long-term trends of the ionospheric reflection height can be derived. The lowering of the reflection height at constant solar zenith angle can mainly be explained by a temperature decrease of the mesosphere due to increasing greenhouse gases (e.g. CO₂) and a reduction of the atmospheric ozone content. Marked seasonal differences of the temperature trends could be found with a stronger cooling of the mesosphere in summer than in winter. A comparison of experimental trend results and model calculations with the three-dimensional global circulation model COMMA-IAP shows a reasonable agreement.     

Thermosphere–ionosphere response at middle and high latitudes during perturbed conditions: A case study

Neutral gas composition and ionospheric measurements taken by the Dynamic Explorer 2 satellite at F2-region heights (280–300 km) during an intense geomagnetic storm (peak Dst=−187 nT) were used to analyze the role of some possible physical mechanisms responsible for the changes of electron density at high and middle latitudes. The storm considered in this study occurred on 26 September 1982. The main features observed were increases of electron density during the initial stages of the storm at middle latitudes; followed by decreases of electron density at high and mid-high latitudes during the main phase of the storm and the first phase of the recovery. Delayed increases of electron density during the recovery phase have also been observed at mid-high latitudes (50–60°). Several mechanisms were discussed in explaining the features observed for the electron density variations.     

Relation between auroral and geomagnetic pulsations at polar latitudes according to the observations on spitsbergen

Geomagnetic pulsations of the Pc4–5 type at the Barentsburg Observatory for December 2007 to January 2008 are compared with the auroral intensity variations based on the photometric records at the same observatory. In all cases, auroral pulsations similar in shape are also observed simultaneously with geomagnetic pulsations. In the morning and daytime hours, the pulsation radiance maxima fall on the positive half-periods in the H component at the observation point; in the evening and nighttime hours, they fall on the negative half-periods.     

Spatio‐temporal variability of Great Lakes basin snow cover ablation events

In the Great Lakes basin of North America, annual run‐off is dominated by snowmelt. This snowmelt‐induced run‐off plays an important role within the hydrologic cycle of the basin, influencing soil moisture availability and driving the seasonal cycle of spring and summer lake levels. Despite this, relatively little is understood about the patterns and trends of snow ablation event frequency and magnitude within the Great Lakes basin. This study uses a gridded dataset of Canadian and United States surface snow depth observations to develop a regional climatology of snow ablation events from 1960 to 2009. An ablation event is defined as an interdiurnal snow depth decrease within an individual grid cell. A clear seasonal cycle in ablation event frequency exists within the basin and peak ablation event probability is latitudinally dependent. Most of the basin experiences peak ablation frequency in March, while the northern and southern regions of the basin experience respective peaks in April and February. An investigation into the interannual frequency of ablation events reveals ablation events significantly decrease within the northeastern and northwestern Lake Superior drainage basins and significantly increase within the eastern Lake Huron and Georgian Bay drainage basins. In the eastern Lake Huron and Georgian Bay drainage basins, larger ablation events are occurring more frequently, and a larger impact to the hydrology can be expected. Trends in ablation events are attributed primarily to changes in snowfall and snow depth across the region.     

Solar flare model: Comparison of the results of numerical simulations and observations

The electrodynamic flare model is based on numerical 3D simulations with the real magnetic field of an active region. An energy of ∼10³² erg necessary for a solar flare is shown to accumulate in the magnetic field of a coronal current sheet. The thermal X-ray source in the corona results from plasma heating in the current sheet upon reconnection. The hard X-ray sources are located on the solar surface at the loop foot-points. They are produced by the precipitation of electron beams accelerated in field-aligned currents. Solar cosmic rays appear upon acceleration in the electric field along a singular magnetic X-type line. The generation mechanism of the delayed cosmic-ray component is also discussed.     

Rainfall‐triggered shallow landslides: infiltration dynamics in a physical hillslope model

In this study, we investigate the triggering of shallow landslides through the analysis of physical experiments performed in an artificial hillslope. The physical model consists of a reinforced concrete box containing a soil prism with maximum height of 3.5 m, length of 6 m, and width of 2 m. In order to analyse and examine the factors leading to the failure and the triggering modes, the hillslope is equipped with sensors to monitor the pore water pressure and moisture content response to rainfall in a 60 cm thick sand layer overlying a sandy clay soil. Two experiments were performed with different degrees of the sand initial compaction, to investigate the role of porosity on the hydrologic response and the subsequent failure. The experimental results showed that, with initially loose sand, the failure occurred suddenly, without premonitory signs, the soil behaving like a viscous fluid. The collected data showed a rapid increase of the water pressure contextual to the failure of the sand layer. In the second experiment, with initially dense sand, three levels of instability were observed: (i) abundant runoff with limited erosion of the ground surface; (ii) local slip detachments involving a soil thickness of few centimetres; and (iii) a slow advancement of the entire sand layer volume. The hydrologic dynamics observed in the landslide experiments were simulated with numerical solutions of the Richards equation. The results of the simulations agree well with the experiments for the loose sand, while for the dense sand the comparison between experimental and numerical results shows some limitations related to the assumptions of single phase and rigid soil matrix implicit in the Richards equation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

极区Hall电流经度差异特征的统计学研究:CHAMP卫星观测

本文利用2001至2010年间CHAMP（CHallenging Minisatellite Payload）卫星标量磁力仪（Overhauser Magnetometer）观测的磁场数据,反演得到电离层霍尔（Hall）电流,并且对极区电离层Hall电流的特征进行了统计学研究.研究主要关注平静期,即重联电场小于2 mV·m^-1条件下,在磁纬60°至90°范围内的Hall电流在不同太阳活动、季节、磁经度、磁地方时等条件下的变化特征.研究发现：Hall电流具有明显的经度差异,在南北半球呈现显著一波经度结构,而且南北半球反相,即北半球电流密度呈现峰-谷-峰结构,而南半球呈现谷-峰-谷结构.Hall电流密度的经度结构与太阳活动紧密相关.太阳活动高年经度差异最大,太阳活动中年经度差异次之,太阳活动低年经度差异最小.研究发现,在磁地方时为10-14MLT的白天,影响Hall电流的因素主要是太阳辐射;而磁地方时为21-03MLT的夜晚,除了电导率的影响之外,可能存在其他的重要的物理过程影响着Hall电流的经度分布.本文还研究了与电流相关的焦耳热的经度分布情况,发现其在南北半球分别呈现单峰、单谷结构,经度差异亦十分明显.

     

Ice processes on medium‐sized north‐temperate lakes

Lake ice supports a range of socio‐economic and cultural activities including transportation and winter recreational actives. The influence of weather patterns on ice‐cover dynamics of temperate lakes requires further understanding for determining how changes in ice composition will impact ice safety and the range of ecosystem services provided by seasonal ice cover. An investigation of lake ice formation and decay for three lakes in Central Ontario, Canada, took place over the course of two winters, 2015–2016 and 2016–2017, through the use of outdoor digital cameras, a Shallow Water Ice Profiler (upward‐looking sonar), and weekly field measurements. Temperature fluctuations across 0°C promoted substantial early season white ice growth, with lesser amounts of black ice forming later in the season. Ice thickening processes observed were mainly through meltwater, or midwinter rain, refreezing on the ice surface. Snow redistribution was limited, with frequent melt events limiting the duration of fresh snow on the ice, leading to a fairly uniform distribution of white ice across the lakes in 2015–2016 (standard deviations week to week ranging from 3 to 5 cm), but with slightly more variability in 2016–2017 when more snow accumulated over the season (5 to 11 cm). White ice dominated the end‐of‐season ice composition for both seasons representing more than 70% of the total ice thickness, which is a stark contrast to Arctic lake ice that is composed mainly of black ice. This research has provided the first detailed lake ice processes and conditions from medium‐sized north‐temperate lakes and provided important information on temperate region lake ice characteristics that will enhance the understanding of the response of temperate lake ice to climate and provide insight on potential changes to more northern ice regimes under continued climate warming.     

Tidal and wind-driven surface currents in the German Bight: HFR observations versus model simulations

Tidal and wind-driven surface currents in the German Bight between shallow mudflats of the North Frisian islands and the island of Helgoland are studied using coastal high-frequency radar (HFR) observations and hindcasts from a primitive equation numerical model. The setup of the observational system is described, and estimates of expected measurement errors are given. A quantitative comparison of numerical model results and observations is performed. The dominant tidal components are extracted from the two data sources using tidal harmonic analysis and the corresponding tidal ellipses are defined. Results show that the spatial patterns of different tidal ellipse parameters are consistent in the two data sets. Model sensitivity studies with constant and variable salinity and temperature distributions are used to study density-related mechanisms of circulation. Furthermore, the role of the surface wind field in driving the German Bight circulation is investigated using the complex correlation between wind and surface current vectors. The observed change of the respective correlation patterns from the coastal to open ocean is shown to be due to a combination of density effects, the coastline and topography. The overall conclusion is that HFR observations resolve the small-scale and rapidly evolving characteristics of coastal currents well in the studied area and could present an important component for regional operational oceanography when combined with numerical modelling. Some unresolved issues associated with the complex circulation and large instability of circulation in front of the Elbe River Estuary justify further considerations of this area using dedicated surveys and modelling efforts.     

A comparison of atmospheric CO2 concentration GOSAT-based observations and model simulations

Satellite observations of atmospheric CO2 are able to truly capture the variation of global and regional CO2 concentration.The model simulations based on atmospheric transport models can also assess variations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations in a continuous space and time,which is one of approaches for qualitatively and quantitatively studying the atmospheric transport mechanism and spatio-temporal variation of atmospheric CO2 in a global scale.Satellite observations and model simulations of CO2 offer us two different approaches to understand the atmospheric CO2.However,the difference between them has not been comprehensively compared and assessed for revealing the global and regional features of atmospheric CO2.In this study,we compared and assessed the spatio-temporal variation of atmospheric CO2 using two datasets of the column-averaged dry air mole fractions of atmospheric CO2(XCO2)in a year from June 2009 to May 2010,respectively from GOSAT retrievals(V02.xx)and from Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry(GEOS-Chem),which is a global 3-D chemistry transport model.In addition to the global comparison,we further compared and analyzed the difference of CO2 between the China land region and the United States(US)land region from two datasets,and demonstrated the reasonability and uncertainty of satellite observations and model simulations.The results show that the XCO2 retrieved from GOSAT is globally lower than GEOS-Chem model simulation by 2 ppm on average,which is close to the validation conclusion for GOSAT by ground measures.This difference of XCO2 between the two datasets,however,changes with the different regions.In China land region,the difference is large,from 0.6 to 5.6 ppm,whereas it is 1.6 to 3.7 ppm in the global land region and 1.4 to 2.7 ppm in the US land region.The goodness of fit test between the two datasets is 0.81 in the US land region,which is higher than that in the global land region(0.67)and China land region(0.68).The analysis results further indicate that the inconsistency of CO2concentration between satellite observations and model simulations in China is larger than that in the US and the globe.This inconsistency is related to the GOSAT retrieval error of CO2 caused by the interference among input parameters of satellite retrieval algorithm,and the uncertainty of driving parameters in GEOS-Chem model.     

Impact of dissipation and dispersion terms on simulations of open‐channel confluence flow using two‐dimensional depth‐averaged model

The flow patterns in confluence channel and the simulation of confluence flow are more complex than that in straight channel. Additional terms in the momentum equations, i.e. dissipation terms, denoting the impact of turbulence, and dispersion terms, denoting the vertical non‐uniformity of velocity, show great impacts on the accuracy of numerical simulations. The dissipation terms, i.e. the product of eddy viscosity coefficient and velocity gradient, are much larger than those of the flow in straight channel. In this study, the zero equation model and the depth‐averaged k‐ε model are used to analyse the impact of eddy viscosity. Meanwhile, the dispersion terms in the momentum equation, depending on the vertical non‐uniformity of velocity, are usually neglected in routine simulation. With the use of detailed experimental data for verification, this study presents the distribution of parameters of vertical non‐uniformity and the intimated connection between non‐uniformity parameters and accuracy of numerical simulations of confluence flow with depth‐averaged models. The results present that simulation accuracy of confluence flow is very sensitive to the turbulence modes, which cannot be handled by normal, simple turbulence model. On the contrary, the impact of dispersion terms is both flow‐condition‐dependent and place‐dependent, and such impact is negligible when secondary circulation is weak. The results indicate the key elements in modelling confluence flow and are helpful for selecting suitable numerical model and solving engineering problems encountered in confluence channel. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of the cryolithic zone electrical properties on the medium-frequency surface wave at high latitudes

Result of the measurements of the cryolithic zone electrical properties by the radio impedance sounding method are presented. The surface impedance and geoelectric section of the Arctic permafrost have been determined. The experiments have been performed near Cherskii in the continental zone. The surface wave attenuation function is considered. The accuracy of the surface wave field calculations at high latitudes has been estimated based on the local electrical characteristics of the underlying cryogenic medium. The effect of the Arctic Ocean on the operating zone of navigation and communication facilities in the kilometer wave band has been experimentally estimated.     

Conditioning temperature‐index model parameters on synoptic weather types for glacier melt simulations

Temperature‐index models are widely favoured as a pragmatic means of simulating glacier melt because of their generally good performance, computational simplicity and limited demands for in situ data. However, their coefficients are normally treated as temporally stationary, unrealistically assuming a constancy of the prevailing weather. We address this simplification by prescribing model coefficients as a function of synoptic weather type, in a procedure that utilizes reanalysis data and preserves the minimal data requirements of temperature‐index models. Using a cross‐validation procedure at Vestari Hagafellsjökull, Iceland, and Storglaciären, Sweden, we demonstrate that applying transient model coefficients, for three temperature‐index models, results in statistically significant increases in the skill with which melt is modelled: Median simulation improvements in the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 7.3 and 23.6% are achieved when hourly and daily melt totals are evaluated respectively. Our weather‐type modelling approach also yields insight to processes driving parameter variability, revealing dependence that is consistent with a priori considerations of the surface energy balance. We conclude that incorporating weather types into temperature‐index models holds promise for improving their performance, as well as enhancing understanding variability in coefficient values. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How to model shallow water‐table depth variations: the case of the Kervidy‐Naizin catchment,France

The aim of this work is threefold: (1) to identify the main characteristics of water‐table variations from observations in the Kervidy‐Naizin catchment, a small catchment located in western France; (2) to confront these characteristics with the assumptions of the Topmodel concepts; and (3) to analyse how relaxation of the assumptions could improve the simulation of distributed water‐table depth. A network of piezometers was installed in the Kervidy‐Naizin catchment and the water‐table depth was recorded every 15 min in each piezometer from 1997 to 2000. From these observations, the Kervidy‐Naizin groundwater appears to be characteristic of shallow groundwaters of catchments underlain by crystalline bedrock, in view of the strong relation between water distribution and topography in the bottom land of the hillslopes. However, from midslope to summit, the water table can attain a depth of many metres, it does not parallel the topographic surface and it remains very responsive to rainfall. In particular, hydraulic gradients vary with time and are not equivalent to the soil surface slope. These characteristics call into question some assumptions that are used to model shallow lateral subsurface flow in saturated conditions. We investigate the performance of three models (Topmodel, a kinematic model and a diffusive model) in simulating the hourly distributed water‐table depths along one of the hillslope transects, as well as the hourly stream discharge. For each model, two sets of parameters are identified following a Monte Carlo procedure applied to a simulation period of 2649 h. The performance of each model with each of the two parameter sets is evaluated over a test period of 2158 h. All three models, and hence their underlying assumptions, appear to reproduce adequately the stream discharge variations and water‐table depths in bottom lands at the foot of the hillslope. To simulate the groundwater depth distribution over the whole hillslope, the steady‐state assumption (Topmodel) is quite constraining and leads to unacceptable water‐table depths in midslope and summit areas. Once this assumption is relaxed (kinematic model), the water‐table simulation is improved. A subsequent relaxation of the hydraulic gradient (diffusive model) further improves water‐table simulations in the summit area, while still yielding realistic water‐table depths in the bottom land. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Plasma convection at high latitudes using the EISCAT VHF and ESR incoherent scatter radars

The recent availability of substantial data sets taken by the EISCAT Svalbard Radar allows several important tests to be made on the determination of convection patterns from incoherent scatter radar results. During one 30-h period, the Svalbard Radar made 15 min scans combining local field aligned observations with two, low elevation positions selected to intersect the two beams of the Common Programme Four experiment being simultaneously conducted by the EISCAT VHF radar at Troms. The common volume results from the two radars are compared. The plasma convection velocities determined independently by the two radars are shown to agree very closely and the combined three-dimensional velocity data used to test the common assumption of negligible field-aligned flow in this regime.