Multistep matched-field inversion for broad-band data from ASIAEX2001

This paper discusses the results of geoacoustic inversion carried out using explosive charge data from the Asian Seas International Acoustic Experiment (ASIAEX) East China Sea (ECS) Experiment. A multifrequency incoherent matched-field inversion processor and a genetic algorithm (GA) are used for the inversion. A multistep matched field inversion approach is presented, which makes use of the varying sensitivities of wave fields at various frequencies to reduce the inversion problem into a sequence of smaller inversions with fewer unknowns to estimate at each stage. Different parameters are estimated using data at different frequencies according to their sensitivities. Inversion results for different areas in the ECS region are summarized and compared with core data.     

Numerical prediction of blast‐induced stress wave from large‐scale underground explosion

This paper presents a numerical model for predicting the dynamic response of rock mass subjected to large‐scale underground explosion. The model is calibrated against data obtained from large‐scale field tests. The Hugoniot equation of state for rock mass is adopted to calculate the pressure as a function of mass density. A piecewise linear Drucker–Prager strength criterion including the strain rate effect is employed to model the rock mass behaviour subjected to blast loading. A double scalar damage model accounting for both the compression and tension damage is introduced to simulate the damage zone around the charge chamber caused by blast loading. The model is incorporated into Autodyn3D through its user subroutines. The numerical model is then used to predict the dynamic response of rock mass, in terms of the peak particle velocity (PPV) and peak particle acceleration (PPA) attenuation laws, the damage zone, the particle velocity time histories and their frequency contents for large‐scale underground explosion tests. The computed results are found in good agreement with the field measured data; hence, the proposed model is proven to be adequate for simulating the dynamic response of rock mass subjected to large‐scale underground explosion. Extended numerical analyses indicate that, apart from the charge loading density, the stress wave intensity is also affected, but to a lesser extent, by the charge weight and the charge chamber geometry for large‐scale underground explosions. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Vicissitude of Sogo Nur and environmental-climatic change during last 1500 years

Lakes in arid zone are sensitive to climatic changes. The lacustrine sediment sequence in Sogo Nur has well and truly recorded climatic events such as the Sui-Tang Dynasty Warm Period, the Song-Liao Dynasty Cold Period, the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age and the 20th Century Warm Period. Commonly, the climate in warm Periods was relatively humid,accordingly the lake area extended and water level rose, and vice versa. Apart from climatic change, human activity is also an important factor of influencing lake vicissitude, and they played the dominant role alternatively during different periods; the factor of climatic change predominated in historical period, while since the beginning of the 20th century the utilization of water resources by human has became decisive.     

从安徽气候变化看2003年洪涝和高温的必然性

利用近 50年温度和降水资料研究了安徽夏季气候变化特征 ,解释了 2 0 0 3年夏季洪涝、高温等极端气候事件出现的必然性。研究结果表明 :(1 )近 50年来安徽夏季温度呈下降趋势 ,降水则呈增加趋势 ,两者变化是相协调的。目前夏季温度处于较低的气候基本态 ,降水处于高基本态。 (2 )无论是温度还是降水 ,其变率都在 2 0世纪80年代中后期开始上升 ,目前均处于高气候变率时期。降水的“两高”(高基本态和高气候变率 )结合决定了 2 0 0 3年夏季洪涝出现的必然性 ;温度的较低基本态决定了“凉夏”背景 ,但由于基本态的回升和变率的加大 ,仍会出现像 2 0 0 3年夏季的若干高温天气。 (3)最大熵谱估计表明 ,安徽夏季降水变化的主周期为 2 5年 ,反映了降水的准两年振荡特征     

能见度集合预报及后处理技术应用

基于污染物情况、环流系统和时空分布特征分析,利用神经网络对历史数据进行建模,生成了能见度集合预报产品。在2022年冬季的TS评分检验中,预报产品优于欧洲中期数值预报中心模式(ECMWF)的能见度预报产品。利用概率匹配、最优百分位和神经网络三种后处理方法生成后处理产品,这些产品的TS评分优于集合预报产品。预报输入的ECMWF模式2 m湿度与实况的偏差是误差的主要来源。利用集成方法对三种后处理产品进行集成,其TS评分结果在低能见度区间总体接近或略优于原始产品。生成的能见度集合预报后处理最优集成预报产品成功提高了对中期延伸期能见度天气的预测准确性。     

Characterization and Application of S-Band Polarimetric Radar and X-Band Phased Array Radar for a Tornadic Storm Event on June 16,2022

The X-band phased array radar offers faster scanning speed and higher spatial resolution compared to the S-band radar, making it capable of enhancing tornado monitoring and early warning capabilities. This study analyzed the char- acteristics and nowcasting signals of a tornado case that occurred on June 16, 2022 in the Guangzhou region. Our findings indicate that the violent contraction of rotation radius and the dramatic increase in rotation speed were important signal characteristics associated with tornado formation. The X-band phased array radar, with its high temporal and spatial resolution, provided an opportunity to capture early warning signals from polarimetric characteristics. The X-band phased array radar demonstrated noteworthy ability to identify apparent tornado vortex signature (TVS) features in a 10-minute lead time, surpassing the capabilities of the CINRAD/SA radar. Additionally, due to its higher scanning frequency, the X- band phased-array radar was capable of consistently identifying TVS with shorter intervals, enabling a more precise tracking of the tornado’s path. The application of professional radars, in this case, provides valuable insights for the monitoring of evolutions of severe local storms and even tornadoes and the issuance of early warning signals.     

人地复合生态系统韧性研究进展及其对海岸带生态系统韧性研究的启示

在全球气候变化与人类高强度开发的双重影响下,人地复合生态系统和受陆海系统交互影响的海岸带地区生态脆弱性更加明显。如何有效把握人地复合生态系统发展动向,合理规划与调控社会经济活动、促进人地关系协调发展一直是可持续发展领域研究的重点课题。韧性作为系统的内在特征,在防范化解灾害风险、维护区域生态安全中发挥着重要作用,是人地复合生态系统可持续发展能力的重要表现。然而,目前关于人地复合生态系统韧性的内涵、评估方法等方面尚未形成统一的范式,韧性的量化评估方法存在较大差异。通过梳理和归纳现有研究成果认为,韧性经历了从工程韧性、生态韧性到演进韧性的转变,其概念及内涵仍在不断拓展与深化;总结对比了基于过程形成性和状态总结性的韧性评估方法发现,将韧性作为过程与结果的综合评估研究仍较为缺乏;在抵抗扰动、维持稳定和协调发展的韧性理念下,生态系统的保护与修复等将是区域可持续发展应用中人地复合生态系统安全的重要保障。根据人地复合生态系统韧性研究进展的分析结果,结合海岸带生态系统韧性研究的现状及不足,认为未来需要在加强海岸带生态系统韧性内涵挖掘、完善海岸带生态系统韧性评价体系、提高海岸带生态系统韧性监测精度、促进学...     

1996-2022年黄河三角洲行水河口岸线稳定性研究

黄河清八汊现行河口自改汊以来发生了巨大变化,监测其岸线变化,探讨其稳定程度对海岸带可持续发展以及海岸带韧性评估具有重要意义。本研究利用GPS、GIS、RS技术从1996—2022年黄河三角洲行水河口的220幅遥感影像中推断出年平均海岸线位置,同时根据行水河口摆动次数划分为5个阶段,并以此为基础对海岸线变迁及其稳定性进行定量分析。结果表明：行水河口岸线长期处于动态变化过程中,整体呈淤进状态,各岸段岸线时空变化特征不同,最大侵蚀（-73.89m/a）区出现在两丁坝之间,最大淤积（393.20m/a）区出现在河口区附近。研究区90%的岸线表现为较强淤积至严重淤积,稳定性指数由两丁坝之间（0.135）、2007年出汊前旧河口（0.068）、2007年出汊后新生河口（0.006）依次降低。入海水沙量、河口位置变迁以及沿岸输沙是影响岸线稳定性出现时空差异的主要原因。     

Changes of precipitation extremes over South Korea projected by the 5 RCMs under RCP scenarios

The change of extreme precipitation is assessed with the HadGEM2-AO - 5 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) chain, which is a national downscaling project undertaken cooperatively by several South Korean institutes aimed at producing regional climate change projection with fine resolution (12.5 km) around the Korean Peninsula. The downscaling domain, resolution and lateral boundary conditions are held the same among the 5 RCMs to minimize the uncertainties from model configuration. Climatological changes reveal a statistically significant increase in the mid-21st century (2046- 2070; Fut1) and the late-21st century (2076-2100; Fut2) precipitation properties related to extreme precipitation, such as precipitation intensity and average of upper 5 percentile daily precipitation, with respect to the reference period (1981-2005). Changes depending on the intensity categories also present a clear trend of decreasing light rain and increasing heavy rain. In accordance with these results, the change of 1-in-50 year maximum precipitation intensity over South Korea is estimated by the GEV method. The result suggests that the 50-year return value (RV50) will change from -32.69% to 72.7% and from -31.6% to 96.32% in Fut1 and from -31.97% to 86.25% and from -19.45% to 134.88% in Fut2 under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, at the 90% confidence level. This study suggests that multi-RCMs can be used to reduce uncertainties and assess the future change of extreme precipitation more reliably. Moreover, future projection of the regional climate change contains uncertainties evoked from not only driving GCM but also RCM. Therefore, multi-GCM and multi-RCM studies are expected to provide more robust projection.     

涡北河网区三维地震采集技术

涡北勘探区属于河网地带,难以进行正常的地震施工。为此,本文提出了一种以规则束状观测为基础和特殊观测系统相结合的数据采集方法。该方法适应了这种复杂的地表条件,获得了"空白区"的地震资料,为今后类似地表条件地区的三维地震勘探提供了经验。