Variations in monsoon precipitation over southwest China during the last 1500 years and possible driving forces

Science China Earth Sciences - Understanding hydroclimatic patterns and their possible driving mechanisms during distinct climate periods over the last 1500 years—such as the Medieval Warm...     

Climate change during the last 150 million years: reconstruction from a carbon cycle model

Variations of the atmospheric CO₂ level and the global mean surface temperature during the last 150 Ma are reconstructed by using a carbon cycle model with high-resolution input data. In this model, the organic carbon budget and the CO₂ degassing from the mantle, both of which would characterize the carbon cycle during the Cretaceous, are considered, and the silicate weathering process is formulated consistently with an abrupt increase in the marine strontium isotope record for the last 40 Ma. The second-order variations of the atmospheric CO₂ level and the global mean surface temperature in addition to the first-order cooling trend are obtained by using high-resolution data of carbon isotopic composition of marine limestone, seafloor spreading rate, and production rate of oceanic plateau basalt. The results obtained from this model are in good agreement with the previous estimates of palaeo-CO₂ level and palaeoclimate inferred from geological, biogeochemical, and palaeontological models and records. The system analyses of the carbon cycle model to understand the cause of the climate change show that the dominant controlling factors for the first-order cooling trend of climate change during the last 150 Ma are tectonic forcing such as decrease in volcanic activity and the formation and uplift of the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau, and, to a lesser extent, biological forcing such as the increase in the soil biological activity. The mid-Cretaceous was very warm because of the high CO₂ level (4–5 PAL) maintained by the enhanced CO₂ degassing rate due to the increased mantle plume activities and seafloor spreading rates at that time, although the enhanced organic carbon burial would have a tendency to decrease the CO₂ level effectively at that period. The variation of organic carbon burial rate may have been responsible for the second-order climate change during the last 150 Ma.     

Evolution of the Juan Fernandez microplate during the last three million years

During the spring of 1983, the R/V “Thomas Washington” surveyed an area located north of the Antarctic-Nazca-Pacific triple junction at 35°S.Magnetic and SEABEAM bathymetric data collected during the survey confirmed the existence of the Juan Fernandez microplate. This paper presents an analysis of the magnetic anomaly data.The western boundary of the microplate is a fast spreading center which has existed since 2 Ma and where the accretion rate has been about 14.5 cm/yr for the last 0.7 Ma.The eastern boundary of the microplate is characterized by a slow spreading center which separates the Juan Fernandez and Nazca plates. The accretion rate has been about 7.0 cm/yr between 0.7 and 0.4 Ma and about 1.6 cm/yr for the last 0.4 Ma.The two spreading centers are connected in the north and south by transform faults.Between the Juan Fernandez and Rapanui microplates, the East Pacific Rise is well defined between 30 and 32°S. In this region the axis displays a record accretion of about 17.2 cm/yr.South of the Juan Fernandez microplate, one magnetic profile (Oceano 7008) indicates that the opening rate is about 12.0 cm/yr on the Antarctic-Pacific ridge.The birth of the microplate is dated at about 2 Ma when the western boundary started to accrete. The evolution of the microplate corresponds to a transfer of accretion from the eastern boundary to the western axis. This is revealed by the net decrease of the opening rate from 7.0 cm/yr to 1.6 cm/yr observed at the eastern ridge where a small jump occurred at 0.4 Ma.     

Regional difference of annual precipitation and discharge variation over west China during the last 50 years

Using annual precipitation and discharge data measured in the past five decades,this paper analyzed the regional differences over west China in terms of climate and discharge variations,and investigated the relationship between the regional characteristics and the activities of South and East Asian sum-mer monsoon. Results revealed that the precipitation and discharge in the upper reaches of the Yellow River (Central West China) have a negative correlation with those in Xinjiang (northwest China) and the Yarlung Zangbo River (the upper reaches of the Brahmaputra Rive,southwest China) regions. The geographical patterns of precipitation and discharge variations are different over west China,i.e. the regional climate displays the alteration of dry-wet-dry or wet-dry-wet from north to south in west China. The negative correlation of annual discharges between Xinjiang and the upper reaches of the Yellow River is found statistically significant in the decadal scale,and that between the Yarlung Zangbo River and the upper reaches of the Yellow River is found active in the interannual scale. The regional char-acteristics indicate that the discharge/precipitation variations in the upper reaches of the Yellow River are dominated by the East Asian summer monsoon while their variations in Xinjiang are affected by both the west wind and East Asian summer monsoon.     

Relationships between climate change,agricultural development and social stability in the Hexi Corridor over the last 2000 years

This case study of the Hexi Corridor, Northwestern China, utilizes statistical methods to estimate quantitatively the interaction at a regional level between climate change, ancient social developments, and political coping strategies over the past 2000 years. The data is sourced from high-resolution reconstructions of climate series(temperature and precipitation), and historical records of cultivated land, war, population, and changes in regional administrative systems. The results show that moisture conditions played a more significant role than temperature in driving land reclamation in the Hexi Corridor. Analysis also showed a negative correlation between war frequency and the area of cultivated land in the Corridor over 20-year time intervals. Population growth was found to have a significant positive correlation with the cultivated land area during the study period. The results indicate that a climate-induced decline in agricultural production and the subsequent fluctuations in population could act as a trigger for social unrest, which is especially true at the mutual decadal time-scales. However, the interaction with administrative reform also suggests that, in the face of social and economic turmoil, a reasonable administrative hierarchy could strengthen the social governance of regional government, and promote social stability and economic development at a regional level. The study substantiates this notion with empirical quantitative evidence.     

鲜水河断裂带近20年磁场变化特征

通过对流动地磁重复测量数据的计算处理,得出鲜水河断裂带上各测点相邻两期的磁场总强度变化,使用surfer软件绘制出鲜水河断裂带上磁场变化的时空分布。由图分析鲜水河断裂带的磁场变化特征,并着重探究鲜水河断裂带2000年至2003年的活动情况以及从磁力资料方面来分析汶川地震对鲜水河断裂带的影响。     

Geospatial-temporal analysis of land-use changes in the Yellow River Delta during the last 40 years

Research on land use/land cover changes (LUCC)has been the core project of the Global EnvironmentalChanges since the 1990s[1—6]. Scientists at home andabroad have been laying emphasis on integrationstudies on land-use change by “space and process”features[7—10] as researches on LUCC are in a greatdeal. It is of paramount important for us to studyLUCC at various spatial-temporal scales and build aquantitative assessment of land-use conversion by in-tegrated spatial-temporal features. …     

The paleoclimate change of Qaidam Basin during the last 2.85 Ma recorded by Gamma-ray logging

The geographical location of Qaidam Basin corresponds to N36°05’-38°10’ and E90°10’-98°05’. The thickness of the Quaternary deposits in the basin reaches 2000-3000 m. This paper deals mainly with the aspect of paleoclimate change of the basin. The approach used for the study consisted of (1) establishing the paleoclimate curve of the basin according to the climate indices, including the spore-pollen statistics, carbonate content and δ¹⁸O, obtained from the samples of the 760 m continuously-cored exploration holes sited in the basin, (2) comparing the paleoclimate curve with the natural gamma-logs of the same exploration holes, and (3) determining the paleoclimatic changes in the last 2.85 Ma on the basis of detailed geochronological calculations. These results are extremely important for comparison with the δ¹⁸O-based climate curve derived from the ODP659 in the Atlantic Ocean and with the cycles of paleosol in the Chinese loess.     

Cropland cover change in Northeast China during the past 300 years

Land use/cover change induced by human activities has emerged as a “global” phenomenon with Earth system consequences. Northeast China is an area where the largest land cultivation activities by migrants have happened in China during the past 300 years. In this paper, methods including documentary data calibration and multi-sourced data conversion model are used to reconstruct historical cropland cover change in Northeast China during the past 300 years. It is concluded that human beings have remarkably changed the natural landscape of the region by land cultivation in the past 300 years. Cropland area has increased almost exponentially during the past 300 years, especially during the past 100 years when the ratio of cropland cover changed from 10% to 20%. Until the middle of the 19th century, the agricultural area was still mainly restricted in Liaoning Province. From the late 19th century to the early 20th century, dramatic changes took place when the northern boundary of cultivation had extended to the middle of Heilongjiang Province. During the 20th century, three agricultural regions with high ratio of cropland cover were formed after the two phases of spatial expansion of cropland area in 1900s–1930s and 1950s–1980s. Since 1930s–1940s, the expansion of new cultivated area have invaded the forest lands especially in Jilin and Heilongjiang Provinces. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40571165) and Innovation Foundation of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX2-YW-315)     

安宁河—则木河断裂带1993～2012年重力动态变化

利用安宁河—则木河断裂带区域1993～2012年的流动重力观测数据,作出重力场动态图像和部分重力点值时序变化图,总结在这20年里安宁河—则木河断裂带的活动规律,分析研究安宁河—则木河断裂带区域及其临近区域较大震级的地震孕育过程中区域的重力变化情况,为安宁河—则木河断裂带区域地震预测预报提供经验和参考资料.     

Molecular biomarker record of paleooceanographic environment in the East China Sea during the last 35000 years

By reference of the δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C isotopic compositions of G.sacculifer and accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS)¹⁴C dates, the U _K ³⁷ , ∑C _– ²¹ /∑C _+- ²² and Pr/Pn in core DGKS9603 have been used to characterize the changes of paleooceanographic environment occurring in the East China Sea (ECS) during the last 35000 years. The stratigraphic records of these proxies have shown that during the last 35 ka the Okinawa Trough has gone through 7 stronger cold-climate events (C₁–C₇) and 9 terrigenous matter-decreasing events (e₂–e₉), of which, the C₁ corresponds to the cold episode occurring in the middle late Holocene, C₂–C₄ and C₇ correspond to the H₁–H₄ events, respectively. e₁ and e₃–e₈ correspond to the decrease of sea surface temperature (SST), respectively. The terrigenous inputs increased when Heinrich events occurred. Climate colding resulted in the decrease of terrigenous matter transported by rivers, and the increase of that transported by winter monsoon. Heinrich events are closely related to East Asia monsoon. During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 15.5–25.8 Cal ka BP), reduction environment fluctuated strongly, bringing forth three stronger reduction events (R₁–R₃) and one weaker reduction event (O), of which, R₁–R₃ correspond to the decrease of SST and increase of terrigenous nutrient and O corresponds to the decrease of terrigenous nutrient. The fluctuation of reduction condition must be related to the change of sea surface productivity.     

Prediction of cycle 24 based on information about solar activity during the last 10 000 years

The average and maximal numbers of sunspot groups in the approaching solar cycle (cycle 24) have been predicted using paleoastrophysical information about solar activity during the last more than 10000 years. The linear and nonlinear prediction methods have been applied. It has been indicated that, from the standpoint of solar paleoastrophysics, the next cycle will most probably be average: the number of sunspot groups at a maximum will reach 68–101. The probability that cycle 24 will be powerful (more than 160 sunspot groups), which was predicted by some researchers, is low (not higher than 2%).     

Oxygen isotope stratigraphy and events in the northern South China Sea during the last 6 million years

Based on the stable isotopic analysis of more than 1000 samples of planktonic and benthic foraminifers from ODP Site 1148 in the northern South China Sea (SCS), the oxygen isotope stratigraphy has been applied to the last 3 million years for the first time in the SCS. Furthermore, the paleoceanographic changes in the northern SCS during the last 6 million years have been unraveled. The benthic foraminiferal δ¹⁸O record shows that before δ3.1 Ma the SCS was much more influenced by the warm intermediate water of the Pacific. The remarkable decrease in the deepwater temperature of the SCS during the period of 3.1-2.5 Ma demonstrates the formation of the Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet. However, the several sea surface temperature (SST) reductions during the early and middle Pliocene, reflected by the planktonic foraminiferal δ¹⁸O, might be related to the ice-sheet growth in the Antarctic region. Only those stepwise and irreversible SST reductions during the period of δ2.2-0.9 Ma could be related to the formation and growth of the Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet.     

Evolution of bed shear stress distribution over the northwest European shelf seas during the last 12,000 years

Due to changes in relative sea level of order 100 m, the contribution of tides and waves to net bed shear stress in shelf sea regions has varied considerably over the Late Glacial and Holocene. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of this ratio leads to a deeper understanding of the erosion and deposition of sediments over the shelf seas throughout this time period. Tidal and wave models are here applied to palaeo time slices of the northwest European shelf seas over the last 12,000 years. The model simulations include a series of sensitivity tests to account for the influence of interannual variability in wind conditions on the resulting bed shear stress. The results show that there has been a significant decrease over the last 12,000 years in shelf-scale mobilisation of coarse sediment. Since there was a lower magnitude of wave orbital velocity penetrating to the sea bed as a result of increasing relative sea level, this reduction in sediment mobilisation was primarily controlled by a shelf-scale decrease in wave-induced bed shear stress over the last 12,000 years. The predictions of mean and residual bed shear stress for the modelled palaeo time slices are a useful tool with which to inform site-selection and subsequent interpretation of sediment cores. In addition, the modelled reconstructions of palaeo tidal range over the shelf seas demonstrates the potential errors associated with assuming a present-day tidal range when correcting palaeo sea-level proxies from their deposited datum (e.g. palaeo mean high water spring tide) to palaeo mean sea level.     

Solar forcing of desert vegetation and drought frequency during the last 2700 years in the interior Qaidam Basin,northeastern Tibetan Plateau

Knowledge of long-term change in vegetation and climate in semi-arid/arid regions is essential for the study of current climate and development of mitigation strategies against severe drought. Here, a fossil pollen record of annually-varved core from Sugan Lake in interior Qaidam Basin was quantitatively analyzed to reconstruct changes in vegetation, floristic diversity and drought frequency. Results of biomization suggested that regional vegetation was desert vegetation with three short-term occupations of temperate steppe/xerophytic shrub during the last 2700 years. Floristic diversity generally increased/decreased with the expansion/degradation of desert vegetation. Moisture fluctuations showed three distinct stages(extremely dry between 742 BC and ~AD500, relatively wet with an increasing trend between ~AD500 and 1200 and relatively wet with frequent fluctuations after AD1200), interrupted by 14 drought events. Spectral analysis and continuous wavelet transform of moisture variation revealed 200-and 120-year cycles. According to cross-wavelet transform analysis, major drought frequency of ~200-year was explicitly correlated to solar activity. It's suggested that the centennial-scale drought frequency was mainly driven by solar activity, through modulation of large-scale atmospheric circulation. Furthermore, the effect of surface temperature–evaporation and uplifting/subsiding air flow should be notable. The climatic drought in interior Qaidam Basin could be intensified under the continuous global warming.     

Intensity of the Earth''s magnetic field over the last 10 000 years

Analyses of over 600 archaeomagnetic data compiled by Burlatskaya and Nachasova (1977) illustrate that our knowledge of the intensity of the Earth's magnetic field is much poorer than generally believed. The data exhibit high scatter and the distribution of sampling localities is extremely limited. Rock magnetic and experimental contributions to the scatter are probably significant, although it is impossible to determine uniquely the sources of scatter without a substantial increase in the data base and without making additional assumptions about the past magnetic field behaviour. Nevertheless, when averaged in 1000 year intervals, the archaeomagnetic intensity data for the past 5000 years can be simply, but non-uniquely, interpreted in terms of a change in the intensity of the dipole field. This interpretation is broadly consistent with independent evidence from radiocarbon data. Because of inconsistencies in radiocarbon data prior to 8000 years B.P. and because of inadequacies in the archaeomagnetic data, the previously alleged sinusoidal variation of the dipole field intensity with a period of 8000–9000 years should be regarded as highly tentative.     

滇西近廿年断层形变与地震的关系

对滇西地区6个断层形变测量场地的资料进行处理。获取研究区每月的总体运动速率，绘制每月的形变等值线图，求出每幅图的容量维，探讨容量维，形变等值线和总体运动速率在历次地震前的演变特征。