1980—2000年北极平流层冬季十年际变化形势的逐月演变

采用1980—2000年的ERA-Interim再分析资料,计算北半球冬季各月(12月、1月、2月)行星波的Eliassen-Palm(EP)通量及其散度,并按冬季不同月份分析平流层整层温度和纬向风场的十年际变化特征与行星波活动变化的关系。结果表明,温度的十年际变化在高纬度中下平流层12月呈明显增温趋势,1月转为较弱的冷却趋势,2月为明显的冷却趋势。纬向风在中高纬平流层12月呈明显的减速变化,1月减速区与加速区相间分布但强度均较弱,而2月为明显的加速趋势。12月行星波沿低纬度波导向热带对流层顶的传播减弱,沿极地波导向平流层整层的传播明显加强;1月沿两支波导的传播趋势未变但均较弱;而2月行星波沿低纬度波导的传播转为加强趋势,沿极地波导的传播转为减弱趋势。相应地,EP通量散度场的十年际变化形势沿两支波导在12月与2月相反,1月为过渡阶段。因此,北极平流层温度、纬向风、EP通量及其散度场的十年际变化在冬季内呈现一个从北半球环状模(Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode, NAM)的负极趋势向正极趋势逐月演变的过程。     

Plate convergence in the Indo-Pacific region

The Indo-Pacific convergence region is the best target to solve the teo remaining challenge s of the plate tectonics theory,i.e.,subduction initiation and the driving force of plate tectonics.Recent studies proposed that the Izu-Bonin subduction initiation belongs to spontaneous initiation,which implies that it started from extension,followed by low angle subduction.Numerical geodynamic modeling suggests that the initiation of plate subduction likely occurred along a transform fault,which put the young spreading ridge in direct contact with old oceanic crust.This,however,does not explain the simultaneous subduction initiation in the west Pacific region in the Cenozoic.Namely,the subduction initiations in the Izu-BoninMariana,the Aleutian,and the Tonga-Kermadec trenches are associated with oceanic crusts of different ages,yet they occurred at roughly the same time,suggesting that they were all triggered by a maj or change in the Pacific plate.Moreover,low angle subduction induces compression rather than extension,which requires external compression forces.Given that the famous Hawaiian-Emperor bending occurred roughly at the same time with the onset of westward subductions in the west Pacific,we propose that these Cenozoic subductions were initiated by the steering of the Pacific plate,which are classified as induced initiation.Induced subduction initiation usually occurs in young ocean basins,forming single-track subduction.The closure s of Neo-Tethys Oceans were likely triggered by plume s in the south,forming northward subductions.Interestingly,the Indian plate kept on moving northward more than 50 Ma after the collision between the Indian and Eurasian continents and the break-off of the subducted oceanic slab attached to it.This strongly suggests that slab pull is not the main driving force of plate tectonics,whereas slab sliding is.     

大气动力学中三种Rossby波作用通量的特征差异和适用性比较

大气动力学诊断Rossby波的传播时,通常用波作用通量来表示。常用的三种波作用通量分别为Plumb波作用通量,T-N波作用通量和局地E-P通量。本文详细讨论了这三种方法的特征差异,并结合2016年1月的一次寒潮事件,比较了三种方法在该事件中的适用性。结果表明:1)Plumb波作用通量的纬向分量较大而经向分量较小,适用于振幅较小的纬向均匀的西风带Rossby长波的诊断。2)T-N波作用通量是对Plumb波作用通量的改进,经向分量得以增强,能更好地描述纬向非均匀气流中的较大振幅的西风带Rossby长波扰动。T-N波作用通量计算时,背景场取多年平均的当月气候场较合适,能更好地反映当前季节内的Rossby波传播异常。3)局地E-P通量可以诊断一段时间内天气尺度瞬变波对背景场(定常波)总的调控作用,但无法直接反映Rossby长波的逐时演变(T-N波或Plumb波作用通量则可以)。     

Plate subduction,oxygen fugacity,and mineralization

Plate subduction is the largest natural factory that processes elements, which controls recycling and mineralization of a variety of elements. There are three major ore deposit belts in the world: the circumPaci?c, the central Asian, and the Tethys belts. All the three belts are closely associated with plate subductions, the mechanism remains obscure. We approached this problem from systematic studies on the behaviours of elements during geologic processes. This contribution summaries the recent progress of our research group. Our results suggest that porphyry Cu deposits form through partial melting of subducted young oceanic crust under oxygen fugacities higher than ? FMQ ～+1.5, which is promoted after the elevation of atmospheric oxygen at ca. 550 Ma. Tin deposits are associated with reducing magmatic rocks formed as a consequence of slab rollback. The Neo-Tethys tectonic regime hosts more than 60% of the world's total Sn reserves. This is due to the reducing environment formed during the subduction of organic rich sediments. For the same reason, porphyry Cu deposits formed in the late stages during the closure of the Neo-Tethys Ocean. Tungsten deposits are also controlled by slab rollback, but is not so sensitive to oxygen fugacity. Subduction related W/Sn deposits are mostly accompanied by abundant accessory ?uorites due to the breakdown of phengite and apatite. Decomposition of phengite is also signi?cant for hard rock lithium deposits, whereas orogenic belt resulted from plate subduction promote the formation of Li brine deposits. Cretaceous red bed basins near the Nanling region are favorable for Li brines. Both Mo and Re are enriched in the oxidationreduction cycle during surface processes, and may get further enriched once Mo-, Re-enriched sediments are subducted and involved in magmatism. During plate subduction, Mo and Re fractionate from each other. Molybdenum is mainly hosted in porphyry Mo deposits and to a less extent, porphyry Cu-Mo deposits, whereas Re is predominantly hosted in porphyry Cu-Mo deposits and sedimentary sul?de deposits.     

未来百年夏季青藏高原臭氧变化趋势及可能机制

利用全大气气候通用模式(WACCM3)对政府间气候变化专门委员会排放情景特别报告中2001年到2099年A1B、A2、B1三种排放情景进行了模拟,分析了三种排放情景下青藏高原地区未来百年臭氧总量在夏季(6—8月)的变化趋势及引起该变化的可能机制。结果表明:在三种排放情景下未来百年夏季高原区臭氧总量均呈现增长趋势,其中A2情景下臭氧增长最快,B1情景下增长最慢,但相对于同纬度其他地区,高原区的臭氧总量增长较慢,即高原区臭氧谷加深。高原区高空污染物的减少以及局域Hadley环流的减弱是未来高原区臭氧总量增加的原因;而南亚高压的增强,以及与之相对应的辐散增强则可能是高原区臭氧谷继续加深的原因。     

模糊数学的WiFi室内定位算法

针对目前大多数基于位置指纹的WiFi定位算法都是以统计数学理论为依托,而且很少涉足定位精度在空间分布上的研究这一问题,该文在总结K近邻、加权K近邻以及最大似然模型的WiFi室内定位基础上,提出了一种结合模糊数学理论的WiFi定位算法。从平均误差、最小误差、最大误差、变异程度、定位时间这几个角度,将该算法与其他传统算法进行比较分析。基于真实场地的实验测试结果表明,该算法定位精度高,定位速度快。最后对定位误差进行空间插值分析,结果表明4种模型的定位精度均与WiFi信号源的分布位置有很强的相关性。     

一个诊断极区平流层温度变化的近似方程的检验及应用

根据一个诊断极区平流层温度变化的近似方程及其滑动累加计算方案,采用1980—2000年的MERRA-2再分析日资料计算了北半球极区低平流层100 hPa逐月的温度增量项、动力加热项和非绝热加热项,以及各项的线性趋势。结果表明,各月温度增量项与累积的动力和非绝热加热之和在气候平均的年循环意义上接近平衡,而且它们的趋势也近似平衡。进一步通过多元回归,得到了动力和非绝热加热作用对当前月温度趋势的分别贡献,动力作用是北极低平流层冬季温度趋势的主导因素并且在冬季内不一致,而非绝热作用在其他季节是主导因素。     

用倾角变异系数预测芙蓉井田构造发育程度

根据计算所得煤层底板倾角变异系数R值,将未采区划分为4种构造复杂程度类别,从而找出未采区不同地段断裂构造的差异性,还可根据R值等值线的方向判定未采区主要断裂构造的走向。      

用试井资料研究低渗透裂缝性油藏渗流模式及演化特征——以准噶尔盆地火烧山油田为例

对于注水开发多年,尤其是多次采取增产增注措施后的油藏,如何准确地判定低渗透非均质储集层渗流特征及其演化规律,难度比较大。针对火烧山低渗透裂缝性油藏,根据不稳定试井曲线识别储层模型,分析了不同开发阶段储层渗流系统的演化规律。由于火烧山油田天然裂缝发育,而且多数井采用压裂方式进行投产,开发初期储层模型主要表现为人工裂缝或双孔模型。开发过程中,随着地层压力的降低及调剖堵水措施的实施,油井渗流特征往单孔模型转变、注水井渗流系统向径向复合模型转变;渗流系统的演化改变了储层的有效渗透率,使其整体上呈现降低的趋势。储层初期有效渗透率场与油井水窜特征基本吻合,有效渗透率的逐步下降与油藏含水上升速度的下降基本吻合,从而为油藏下一步开发调整可行性评价提供了重要依据。