River Runoff and Probabilistic Forecast of the Caspian Sea Level

The main components ofthe Caspian Sea water balance and water level are assessed. Stochastic models of time series of the water balance components are proposed ustng morphometric dependences specified by creating and processing digital elevation models for the flooded areas. The sea level forecast is obtained by the method of simulation modeling based on algorithms for the generation of Markovian random sequences with non-Gaussian marginal distributions.     

Lake Baikal: Extreme level as a rare hydrological event

The optimal boundaries of water level variation range in Lake Baikal have been determined under the conditions of runoff regulation at the Irkutsk HPP and the extremely low water abundance in lake basin in recent years. The properties of the time series of level regime and the characteristics of runoff from its drainage basin have been studied. The formation of long-term dry periods in the region has been studied, and the regularities in level regime variations in the lake have been estimated for both natural and runoff-regulation conditions, and the specifics of runoff regulation and level drawdown in dry years have been considered.     

The regularities of long-term annual stream runoff fluctuations in Siberia and the Far East

We examine the time coincidence and spatial homogeneity of the annual stream runoff fluctuations in Siberia and the Far East. A regionalization of the study territory for the time coincidence of the stream runoff fluctuations has been carried out by analyzing the correlation matrix on the basis of the algorithm of automatic classification of objects through identification of groups with homogeneous attributes according to a specified homogeneity criterion. The territory’s spatial homogeneity was assessed by constructing and analyzing spatial correlation functions and accompanied by a checking for the possible anisotropy.     

The analysis of long-term variability and estimation of the maximum water levels under conditions of high anthropogenic impact for the Amur River

The series of the maximum annual water level in the Amur River are long enough but non-uniform. The need is substantiated in dividing the series of the maximum water level into two uniform periods and in using the certain period (with the duration of more than 35 years) for the subsequent statistical analysis. This is the period which indicates the formation conditions of runoff and maximum water levels including the anthropogenic load (runoff control).     

Present-day variations of the minimum runoff of the Volga basin rivers

Carried out is the analysis of stationarity of minimum runoff series in summer and winter for the Volga basin rivers. Two conditionally homogeneous periods are singled out within the temporal variations of these characteristics, and the date of their change varies throughout the territory of the basin. The considerable rise in air temperature in winter on the whole territory of the Volga basin is demonstrated as a result of the analysis of meteorological parameters. The relationship between runoff variations and wintertime temperature variations is proposed for predicting the minimum runoff. The distribution of minimum values of runoff is computed using this dependence and the forecast method based on the sum of distributions.     

Bayesian prediction of minimum river runoff under nonstationary conditions of future climate change

The problem of runoff prediction taking into account the possible climate change is considered using the Bayesian approach. The proposed technique is applied to the probabilistic forecasting of minimum runoff variations on the rivers of the Volga River basin.     

On the Forecast of Long-Term Changes in the Hydrological Regime of Rivers Using the Results of Climate Modeling

Water Resources - A method is proposed for probabilistic forecasting of river flow under non-stationary conditions based on the Bayesian approach and using the results of climatic system modeling....     

Hydrological hazards in Russia: origin,classification, changes and risk assessment

Hydrological extreme events pose an imminent risk to society and economics. In this paper, various aspects of hydrological hazards in Russia are analysed at different scales of risk assessment. It is shown that the number of hydrological and meteorological hazards in Russia has been growing every year. The frequency of economic losses associated with extreme low flow in this century has increased by factor five compared to the last decade of the previous century. With regard to floods, an interesting spatial patter can be observed. On the one hand, the number of floods in the Asian part of the country has increased, whereas on the other hand, the number and intensity of floods in estuarine areas in the European part of Russia have significantly reduced since the middle of the twentieth century, especially in the 2000s. This decrease can be attributed to runoff flooding in the mouths of regulated rivers, with an effective system of flood and ice jam protection. The analysis shows that there is an 8–12-year periodicity in the number of flood occurrences and that flood surges have intensified over the last 110 years, especially on the European territory of Russia. An integrated index that accounts for flood hazards and socio-economic vulnerability was calculated for each region of Russia. A classification of flood risk was also developed, taking into account more than 20 hydrological and social–economic characteristics. Based on these characteristics, hazard and vulnerability maps for entire Russia were generated which can be used for water management and the development of future water resources plans.