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基于国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)历史模拟试验(historical run)的模式输出结果以及遥感数据,采用相关分析、均方根误差、标准差等统计方法,评估了13个气候(或地球)系统模式对欧亚大陆积雪覆盖率的模拟能力,在此基础上,采用多模式集合平均的方法对未来不同温室气体排放情景下(rcp2.6、rcp4.5和rcp8.5)欧亚大陆积雪覆盖率的变化进行预估。结果显示:尽管各模式模拟的积雪覆盖率在高原地区与观测差异较大,但总体看来模式能够对欧亚大陆积雪覆盖率的空间形态、季节变化及年际变化特征做出较好地模拟。未来预估结果表明,多模式集合平均预估的欧亚大陆积雪覆盖率从2006年到2040年左右减少趋势非常明显,且不同排放情景下模式模拟的积雪减少速率非常接近;然而,大约从2040年之后,不同排放情景下的积雪覆盖率减小趋势的差异越来越大,rcp2.6和rcp4.5下积雪覆盖率的变化趋于平缓,而rcp8.5情景下,积雪覆盖率一直减少,冬季、春季和秋季都明显减少,减少最显著的区域位于西欧和青藏高原地区。由此可见,控制温室气体的排放对于未来欧亚大陆积雪的变化是至关重要的。 相似文献
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鉴于我国20世纪50年代以来,地震液化现场很少有黄土液化的实例,而饱和黄土甚至高含水率的黄土也具有很高的液化势和流态破坏势.为工程设计准确预测饱和黄土在设计地震动的作用下是否会液化,本文用Seed-Idriss简化判别法对兰州某民用机场的饱和黄土和砂土进行液化判别,并以此结果为依据检验规范判别式对黄土液化判别的适用性.结论证实用Seed-Idriss简化判别法结果检验规范方法对黄土的适用性是可行的,规范方法对于黄土液化判别过于保守. 相似文献
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中外烈度表“人的感觉”和“器物的反应”对比研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
随着震害经验的积累以及人们对地震认识的深化,不断修改烈度标准,使烈度评定更加客观与科学是地震工程界一直所追求的.人的感觉和器物的反应都是评定一次地震时相应烈度的宏观标志,是烈度表的重要组成部分.鉴于此,本文简要介绍了中国历代地震烈度表(《新的中国地震烈度表》、《中国地震烈度表(1980)》、《中国地震烈度表( 1999... 相似文献
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The flexible global ocean-atmosphere-land system model, Grid-point Version 2: FGOALS-g2 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
李立娟 林鹏飞 俞永强 王斌 周天军 刘利 刘骥平 包庆 徐世明 黄文誉 夏坤 普业 董理 申思 刘屹岷 胡宁 刘咪咪 孙文奇 史湘军 郑伟鹏 吴波 宋米荣 刘海龙 张学洪 吴国雄 薛巍 黄小猛 杨广文 宋振亚 乔方利 《大气科学进展》2013,30(3):543-560
This study mainly introduces the development of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model: Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2) and the preliminary evaluations of its performances based on results from the pre-industrial control run and four members of historical runs according to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) experiment design. The results suggest that many obvious improvements have been achieved by the FGOALS-g2 compared with the previous version,FGOALS-g1, including its climatological mean states, climate variability, and 20th century surface temperature evolution. For example,FGOALS-g2 better simulates the frequency of tropical land precipitation, East Asian Monsoon precipitation and its seasonal cycle, MJO and ENSO, which are closely related to the updated cumulus parameterization scheme, as well as the alleviation of uncertainties in some key parameters in shallow and deep convection schemes, cloud fraction, cloud macro/microphysical processes and the boundary layer scheme in its atmospheric model. The annual cycle of sea surface temperature along the equator in the Pacific is significantly improved in the new version. The sea ice salinity simulation is one of the unique characteristics of FGOALS-g2, although it is somehow inconsistent with empirical observations in the Antarctic. 相似文献
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利用BATS-SAST模式对加拿大Sk-OJP森林站2001/2002,2002/2003,2003/2004年度及Sk_HarvestJP空旷站2003/2004年度4个积雪季节进行模拟.针对Sk-OJP森林站积雪深度模拟偏小的不足,在长波辐射及降水量的计算方案中考虑透过冠层的部分;考虑由雨、雪密度不同引起冠层上单位面积截留量的变化以及风速和冠层温度对冠层积雪卸载过程的影响,对冠层截留模型进行了改进.针对Sk_HarvestJP空旷站积雪深度模拟偏大的不足,对地表积雪覆盖率的计算方案进行了调整.结果表明:模式能够对2种不同下垫面积雪变化过程做出合理描述;调整后的模式对Sk_OJP森林站积雪深度模拟增加;新冠层截留模型通过改变冠层截留量来影响冠层下积雪深度的变化,积雪深度的模拟在融化阶段改进最为显著;调整后的模式对Sk_HarvestJP空旷站积雪覆盖率模拟变小,由于积雪覆盖率与地表反照率之间存在着正反馈关系,地面接收的太阳辐射增大,积雪深度的模拟变小. 相似文献
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目前,主要依靠室内动力试验对黄土液化势进行评价。由于黄土特殊的结构性,室内试验对其饱和的过程较为复杂,且与实际场地饱和黄土差异明显,导致室内黄土液化试验结果并不能代表现场饱和黄土的抗液化强度。本文选取兰州市西固区寺儿沟村某饱和黄土场地进行钻孔测试,现场实施了标准贯入试验、静力触探试验以及剪切波速测试。应用Robertson的土类指数分类图对该场地不同含水率黄土的土类进行了界定,确定了饱和黄土属于类砂土,有液化势。应用NCEER推荐方法,计算了3组原位试验数据的饱和黄土循环抗力比(CRR),通过与1976年唐山地震和1999年集集地震液化土CRR对比,得出了饱和黄土抗液化强度很低的结论。 相似文献
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Preliminary evaluations of FGOALS-g2 for decadal predictions 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
王斌 刘咪咪 俞永强 李立娟 林鹏飞 董理 刘利 刘骥平 黄文誉 徐世明 申思 普业 薛巍 夏坤 王勇 孙文奇 胡宁 黄小猛 刘海龙 郑伟鹏 吴波 周天军 杨广文 《大气科学进展》2013,30(3):674-683
The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2) for decadal predictions, is evaluated preliminarily, based on sets of ensemble 10-year hindcasts that it has produced. The results show that the hindcasts were more accurate in decadal variability of SST and surface air temperature (SAT), particularly in that of Nin o3.4 SST and China regional SAT, than the second sample of the historical runs for 20th-century climate (the control) by the same model. Both the control and the hindcasts represented the global warming well using the same external forcings, but the control overestimated the warming. The hindcasts produced the warming closer to the observations. Performance of FGOALS-g2 in hindcasts benefits from more realistic initial conditions provided by the initialization run and a smaller model bias resulting from the use of a dynamic bias correction scheme newly developed in this study. The initialization consists of a 61-year nudging-based assimilation cycle, which follows on the control run on 01 January 1945 with the incorporation of observation data of upper-ocean temperature and salinity at each integration step in the ocean component model, the LASG IAP Climate System Ocean Model, Version 2 (LICOM2). The dynamic bias correction is implemented at each step of LICOM2 during the hindcasts to reduce the systematic biases existing in upper-ocean temperature and salinity by incorporating multi-year monthly mean increments produced in the assimilation cycle. The effectiveness of the assimilation cycle and the role of the correction scheme were assessed prior to the hindcasts. 相似文献