Socio-economic changes,social capital and implications for climate change in a changing rural Nepal

We investigate the use of social capital in the form of social ties in the face of commercialization, urbanization and climate change. While discussions of social capital often focus on whether people possess certain social ties or not our study shows that it is also necessary to consider under what circumstances people can make use of their ties. The use of different kinds of ties varies with context and is not as clear cut as suggested in the literature. For example families closer to the city are in a better position to take advantage of new opportunities. Using a combination of ties people have engaged in high-input agriculture, business and paid employment. Diversification of livelihoods has made many people less sensitive to climate change, but this does not translate into decreased vulnerability for the community. Intensive agriculture and lower community cohesion seems unsustainable in the long run. Thus, decreased vulnerability at the household level may come at the price of increased vulnerability at higher levels and negative consequences for the wider social–ecological system. Evaluating vulnerability and the role of social ties depends on the unit and sector of analysis, and the temporal and spatial scale.     

A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation.     

Scenarios on future land changes in the West African Sahel

In an attempt to anticipate possible futures of drylands of West Africa in the face of rapid socio-economic and environmental changes, we developed four scenarios based on recent survey data, the literature and our knowledge of the region. The four scenarios are inspired by those developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: (1) ‘downward spiral’ characterized by rapid climate change, expansion of agriculture and chaotic urban growth; (2) ‘integrated economy’ with integrated land management, food production for local markets and rural–urban exchanges; (3) ‘open doors’ characterized by large-scale out-migrations, land grabbing by foreign companies and development aid and (4) ‘climate change mitigation’ with an increase in biofuel crops, land management for carbon capture and development of off-farm activities. We conclude that the Sahel region is most likely moving away from being a highly climate-dependent region based on agriculture towards a more open and diversified economy. West African countries have to find a balance between the new opportunities and risks created by economic globalization.     

Sustainable urban drainage systems: examining the potential for green infrastructure-based stormwater management for Sub-Saharan cities

Green infrastructure (GI)-based approaches to urban drainage such as sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDS) could provide Sub-Saharan cities with an opportunity to address projected climate change impacts and existing deficits in their drainage infrastructure, even more so due to the synergies between an enhanced green infrastructure stock and sustainable urban development. The objective of this paper was to assess the theoretical value of using green infrastructure for stormwater management as an alternative and supplement to conventional pipe-based stormwater management systems. A SWOT analysis is performed to assess the potential that SUDS hold if adopted and implemented in Sub-Saharan cities. This analysis is based on a review of sustainable stormwater management as well as urban planning and governance literature. Results show that despite seemingly significant barriers to the adoption of SUDS in Sub-Saharan cities such as low prioritization on the urban agenda and lack of data among others, the concept may hold valuable potential for flood risk reduction, even more so due to its multi-functionality and synergies with urban agriculture, amenity and water supply. In the light of the existing threats and weaknesses, it is recommended that GI-based SUDS may be best approached initially as experiments at a local community scale.     

ROBUST: The ROle of BUffering capacities in STabilising coastal lagoon ecosystems

“Buffer capacities” has been defined in ecology as a holistic concept (e.g., Integration of Ecosystem Theories: A Pattern, second ed. Kluwer, Dordrecht, 1997, 388pp), but we show that it can also be worked out in mechanistic studies. Our mechanistic approach highlights that “buffering capacities” can be depleted progressively, and, therefore, we make a distinction between current and potential “buffering capacities”. We have applied this concept to understand the limited “local stability” in seagrass ecosystems and their vulnerability towards structural changes into macro-algal dominated communities. We explored the following processes and studied how they confer buffering capacities to the seagrass ecosystem: (i) net autotrophy is persistent in Zostera noltii meadows where plant assimilation acts as a sink for nutrients, this contrasted with the Ulva system that shifted back and forth between net autotrophy and net heterotrophy; (ii) the Z. noltii ecosystem possesses a certain albeit rather limited capacity to modify the balance between nitrogen fixation and denitrification, i.e., it was found that in situ nitrogen fixation always exceeded denitrification; (iii) the nitrogen demand of organoheterotrophic bacteria in the sediment results in nitrogen retention of N in the sediment and hence a buffer against release of nitrogen compounds from sediments, (iv) habitat diversification in seagrass meadows provides shelter for meiofauna and hence buffering against adverse conditions, (v) sedimentary iron provides a buffer against noxious sulfide (note: bacterial sulfide production is enhanced in anoxic sediment niches by increased organic matter loading). On the other hand, in the coastal system we studied, sedimentary iron appears less important as a redox-coupled buffer system against phosphate loading. This is because most inorganic phosphate is bound to calcium rather than to iron. In addition, our studies have highlighted the importance of plant–microbe interactions in the seagrass meadows.     

Laboratory simulation of an oxidizing perturbation in a deep granite environment

An experiment designed to study oxidizing perturbations in deep crystalline rock, a potential host for nuclear waste disposal, was conducted. This experiment simulated a fracture surface in contact with circulating groundwater, in which dissolved oxygen was injected periodically. Major physicochemical and biological parameters were monitored during this 1-yr experiment. Modeling of the results indicates that the kinetics of oxygen uptake may be represented by a simple steady-state rate law combining enzymatic catalysis (Monod) and a first-order rate law. Combined chemical and biological data demonstrate the coupling of organic/inorganic processes during the uptake of dissolved oxygen and the progressive return to reducing conditions. Timescales for these stages are discussed. Experimental results also suggest that iron-reducing bacteria, which are robust and well-adapted microorganisms, play a key role in these interfacial processes. These results show that an operational definition of the “redox buffering capacity” in a granitic medium cannot ignore the effect of bacteria and therefore the controls on bacterial substrates (organic carbon, H₂, CH₄, CO₂).     

Impact of Climate on Tourist Demand

Tourism, being volatile and situation-specific, is responsive to climate change. A cross-section analysis is conducted on destinations of OECD tourists and a factor and regression analysis on holiday activities of Dutch tourists, to find optimal temperatures at travel destination for different tourists and different tourist activities. Globally, OECD tourists prefer a temperature of 21 °C (average of the hottest month of the year) at theirchoice of holiday destination. This indicates that, under a scenario of gradual warming, tourists would spend their holidays in different places than they currently do. The factor and regression analysis suggests that preferences for climates at tourist destinations differ among age and income groups.     

Rural diversification in the Baltic countryside: a local perspective

Today “rural diversification” is high on the agenda in rural development. This article analyses rural diversification under conditions of post-socialist economic transition using case areas in Latvia and Estonia. The study shows that transition from centrally planned economy to market economy has had an enormous impact in the rural areas. Agricultural production and employment has decreased dramatically and rural unemployment is high. The conditions for rural diversification the first years after independence depended a lot on the local presence of non-farm activities before the split up of collective farming, in both production facilities but also in the skills and relations people had. Since independence, markets for traditional rural services and products have decreased. The extent to which local businesses find markets outside the local area and people have been able to integrate into the new labour market of service and construction jobs often in urban areas are essential for the diversification of the rural economy. Most rural inhabitants only have skills in large-scale agriculture and limited contacts to outside the local area which makes exploiting new opportunities difficult. The local capacity for withholding, developing and inducing new activities is weak. The challenge for rural development policy is to extend the possibilities of the rural inhabitants to exploit new opportunities.     

Air–Sea \mathrm{CO}_{2} Gas Transfer Velocity in a Shallow Estuary

The air–sea transfer velocity of $\mathrm{CO}_{2}\, (k_{\mathrm{CO}_{2}})$ was investigated in a shallow estuary in March to July 2012, using eddy-covariance measurements of $\mathrm{CO}_{2}$ fluxes and measured air–sea $\mathrm{CO}_{2}$ partial-pressure differences. A data evaluation method that eliminates data by nine rejection criteria in order to heighten parametrization certainty is proposed. We tested the data evaluation method by comparing two datasets: one derived using quality criteria related solely to the eddy-covariance method, and the other derived using quality criteria based on both eddy-covariance and cospectral peak methods. The best parametrization of transfer velocity normalized to a Schmidt number of 600 $(k_{600})$ was determined to be: $k_{600} = 0.3\,{U_{10}}^{2.5}$ where $U_{10}$ is the wind speed in m $\mathrm{s}^{-1}$ at 10 m; $k_{600}$ is based on $\mathrm{CO}_{2}$ fluxes calculated by the eddy-covariance method and including the cospectral peak method criteria. At low wind speeds, the transfer velocity in the shallow water estuary was lower than in other coastal waters, possibly a symptom of low tidal amplitude leading to low intensity water turbulence. High transfer velocities were recorded above wind speeds of 5 m $\mathrm{s}^{-1}$ , believed to be caused by early-breaking waves and the large fetch (6.5 km) of the estuary. These findings indicate that turbulence in both air and water influences the transfer velocity.     

Video monitoring of in-channel wood: From flux characterization and prediction to recommendations to equip stations

Wood flux (piece number per time interval) is a key parameter for understanding wood budgeting, determining the controlling factors, and managing flood risk in a river basin. Quantitative wood flux data is critically needed to improve the understanding of wood dynamics and estimate wood discharge in rivers. In this study, the streamside videography technique was applied to detect wood passage and measure instantaneous rates of wood transport. The goal was to better understand how wood flux responds to flood and wind events and then predict wood flux. In total, one exceptional wind and seven flood events were monitored on the Ain River, France, and around 24,000 wood pieces were detected visually. It is confirmed that, in general, there is a threshold of wood motion in the river equal to 60% of bankfull discharge. However, in a flood following a windy day, no obvious threshold for wood motion was observed, which confirms that wind is important for the preparation of wood for transport between floods. In two multi-peak floods, around two-thirds of the total amount of wood was delivered on the first peak, which confirms the importance of the time between floods for predicting wood fluxes. Moreover, we found an empirical relation between wood frequency and wood discharge, which is used to estimate the total wood amount produced by each of the floods. The data set is then used to develop a random forest regression model to predict wood frequency as a function of three input variables that are derived from the flow hydrograph. The model calculates the total wood volume either during day or night based on the video monitoring technique for the first time, which expands its utility for wood budgeting in a watershed. A one-to-one link is then established between the fraction of detected pieces of wood and the dimensionless parameter “passing time × frame rate ”, which provides a general guideline for the design of monitoring stations.