States of maximum entropy production in a one-dimensional vertical model with convective adjustment

We investigate the hypothesis that the atmosphere is constrained to maximize its entropy production by using a one-dimensional (1-D) vertical model. We prescribe the lapse rate in the convective layer as that of the standard troposphere. The assumption that convection sustains a critical lapse rate was absent in previous studies, which focused on the vertical distribution of climatic variables, since such a convective adjustment reduces the degrees of freedom of the system and may prevent the application of the maximum entropy production (MEP) principle. This is not the case in the radiative-convective model (RCM) developed here, since we accept a discontinuity of temperatures at the surface similar to that adopted in many RCMs.
For current conditions, the MEP state gives a difference between the ground temperature and the air temperature at the surface ≈10 K. In comparison, conventional RCMs obtain a discontinuity ≈2K only. However, the surface boundary layer velocity in the MEP state appears reasonable (≈m s⁻¹). Moreover, although the convective flux at the surface in MEP states is almost uniform in optically thick atmospheres, it reaches a maximum value for an optical thickness similar to current conditions. This additional result may support the maximum convection hypothesis suggested by Paltridge (1978 ).     

Sedimentary model and high-frequency cyclicity in a Mediterranean, shallow-shelf, temperate-carbonate environment (uppermost Miocene, Agua Amarga Basin, Southern Spain)

Uppermost Tortonian to lower Messinian temperate carbonates crop out in the Agua Amarga Basin (SE Spain). They consist of four units. The lower three units can be tentatively assigned to the lowstand systems tract of a fourth-order sequence, constituting in turn the lowstand (‘megatrough unit’), transgressive (‘breccia unit’) and highstand (‘bedded unit’) stages of a higher-order cycle. All these materials were deposited in a small pull-apart basin related to the sinistral Carboneras strike-slip fault system. The best represented is the bedded unit (up to 25 m thick), which consists of bioclastic, bryozoan/bivalve-dominated calcarenites/calcirudites with abundant fragments of echinoids, barnacles, benthic foraminifers, coralline algae, brachiopods and solitary corals. Facies trends within this unit are roughly arranged in an E-W direction, with the coastline to the north of the basin. The depositional model is that of a gentle ramp with prograding beaches and shoals in its higher parts. Seaward of the shoals was the ‘factory area’, where most organisms lived and maximum carbonate production took place. From this area some of the skeletons were washed landwards by waves and/or currents during storms and incorporated into the shoals and beaches, and others moved downslope along the ramp as mass-flows, accumulating to form the ‘fan-bedded zone’. The factory-area and fan-bedded sediments intercalate five well-defined, thick beds of calcarenites/fine-grained calcirudites. They show bar morphologies (single or amalgamated), or make up sand-waves with very consistent tabular cross-bedding pointing landwards. These beds formed in a very shallow, wave/current-influenced, coastal environment. The bars and sand waves in the fan-bedded zone developed during lowstands, while those located higher up in the ramp interbedded with the factory facies are related to transgressive stages. Prograding beaches, shoals, factory facies and fan-bedded layers developed during the highstands. Net skeletal production occurred mainly during the highstands. Sediment-accretion values of these sediments are similar to those of present and ancient shallow-marine, temperate carbonates considering that the whole bedded unit was deposited in a 100 000-year interval (equivalent to the short eccentricity cycle). The five cycles inside the bedded unit would therefore correspond to the c. 20 000-year precession cycles of the Milankovitch band.     

地震预测研究与展望

概要介绍了近年来国际上就地震预测所展开的争论，分析了VAN方法所反映的地震前兆研究动向；就地震前兆观测与数据资料库建设、地震前兆的统计分析、地震的动力学预测、地震预测算法的发展等方面，论述了国际地震预测研究的进展；并概略地介绍了中国的地震预测研究进展．     

MORPHOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF KARST DEPRESSIONS ON A MEDITERRANEAN KARST MASSIF

Dolines are the most typical landform in karst landscapes. They play an important role in karst hydrogeology; they are effective sediment traps that provide information about past climates and karst evolution, and can also be indicators of tectonic activity. The morphometic analysis of those depressions can help in their study and interpretation. However, detailed identification and delineation of dolines becomes increasingly difficult when the study area is very large, of limited access or covered by vegetation. Here, we have used a method developed by the authors for automatic identification and delineation of karst depressions based on the use of a pit removal algorithm. Next a complete morphometric analysis of the karst depressions has been carried out. The main advantage of the methodology is that by delineating and identifying the depth of each doline from its rim, many morphometric statistics can be obtained, including the relation of doline depth and area with respect to altitude, the main doline orientations, doline density, the fractal dimension of doline area and frequency, and point field analysis, among others. The results are interpreted from a geomorphological point of view and the mapped dolines can be easily integrated into geomorphological mapping. A case study is presented from the large Sierra Gorda karst massif in southern Spain, where 3100 depressions have been identified. A strong structural control of doline shape and orientation is demonstrated; the main areas of doline density are highlighted and doline size is shown to follow a fractal law.     

Suspension and calibration of a sediment trap

The aim of this technical note is to introduce a new, simple construction of a buoy-carried, suspended sediment trap that meets given demands concerning design (geometry of vessels) and stability during the registration period. The device is based on a ball-and-socket joint in the center and two Plexiglas cylinders (D=5cm, H=30cm) on PVC plastic arms. The suspension consists of only three parts. To determine the optimal construction, the apparatus has been calibrated in a circulating flume at various water velocities.     

运用上月各气象要素的特征来预告下月雨量——(沈阳夏季各月雨量作例)

一个地方下月的雨量,能不能从当地上月天气演变的结果所记录下来的各种气象要素的数值来推测呢?现在这篇报告的目的就想解答这个问题。关於这方面的研究,以前早有人注意,例如竺可桢教授研究过冬天温度与夏季雨量的关系,     

Intermediate time error growth and predictability: tropics versus mid-latitudes

The evolution of identical twin errors from an atmospheric general circulation model is studied in the linear range (small errors) through intermediate times and the approach to saturation. Between forecast day 1 and 7, the normalized error variance in the tropics is similar to that at higher latitudes. After that, tropical errors grow more slowly. The predictability time τ taken for tropical errors to reach half their saturation values is larger than that for mid-latitudes, especially for the planetary waves, thus implying greater potential predictability in the tropics.
The discrepancy between mid-latitude and tropical τ is more pronounced at 850 hPa than at 200 hPa, is largest for the planetary waves, and is more pronounced for errors arising from wave phase differences (than from wave amplitude differences).
The spectra of the error in 200 hPa zonal wind show that for forecast times up to about 5 d, the tropical error peaks at much shorter scales than the mid-latitude errors, but that subsequently tropical and mid-latitude error spectra look increasingly similar.
The difference between upper and lower level tropical τ may be due to the greater influence of mid-latitudes at the upper levels.     

On the selection of prognostic moments in parametrization schemes for drop sedimentation

Common parametrization models for cloud microphysical processes use condensate mass density and/or particle number density as prognostic properties. However, other moments of the particle size distribution can likewise be chosen for prediction. This study deals with parametrization models with one and two, respectively, prognostic moments for the sedimentation of drop ensembles. The spectral resolving model defines the reference solution.
The evolution of the vertical profiles of liquid water content, drop number density and rain rate strongly depend on the choice of the prognostic moments in the parametrization models. In models with a single prognostic moment, its vertical profile is copied by all other moments. The moment of most physical pertinence is recommended for prediction. In models with two prognostic moments, the vertical profiles of all moments differ. The orders of the prognostic moments should be chosen close to the order of moments of highest relevance. Otherwise large errors occur. For example, comparison of modelled versus observed radar reflectivity (6th moment with respect to diameter) does not tell much about the quality of other properties if reflectivity is diagnosed from for example, number density and mass density. Furthermore, mass conservation is fulfilled only if mass density is forecasted.     

沈积岩石学

沈积学,在二十世纪初叶始渐起而为地质学中之新支,近数十年来随着石油工业之发达,而日趋蓬勃;一变昔日仅以岩石性质研究为沈积原因之解说,而侧重沈积作用及沈积环境之