A Simulating Experiment in the Process of Soil Erosion on Bare Land in Mt. Tanakami

In order to understand the process of surface erosion and acquire basic data of conditions on hillslope without vege tation, a sprinkling experiment is conducted on a bare slope in Mt. Tanakami in the central part of Japan. Based on the mea surements of runoff, mean soil erosion depth, and sediment yield, etc. , the results suggest the following characteristics in the process of surface erosion in the experimental area. (1) The occurrence of sediment discharge is interrupted; (2) Surface runoff is a saturated overland flow; (3) The mean soil erosion depth is thick compared with other areas in Mt. Tanakami;(4) Sediment discharge process is detachment- limited.     

The effective stress concept and the evaluation of changes in pore air pressure under jacketed isotropic compression tests for dry sand based on the 2‐phase porous theory

The effective stress concept for solid‐fluid 2‐phase media was revisited in this work. In particular, the effects of the compressibility of both the pore fluid and the soil particles were studied under 3 different conditions, i.e., undrained, drained, and unjacketed conditions based on a Biot‐type theory for 2‐phase porous media. It was confirmed that Terzaghi effective stress holds at the moment when soil grains are assumed to be incompressible and when the compressibility of the pore fluid is small enough compared to that of the soil skeleton. Then, isotropic compression tests for dry sand under undrained conditions were conducted within the triaxial apparatus in which the changes in the pore air pressure could be measured. The ratio of the increment in the cell pressure to the increment in the pore air pressure, m, corresponds to the inverse of the B value by Bishop and was obtained during the step loading of the cell pressure. In addition, the m values were evaluated by comparing them with theoretically obtained values based on the solid‐fluid 2‐phase mixture theory. The experimental m values were close to the theoretical values, as they were in the range of approximately 40 to 185, depending on the cell pressure. Finally, it was found that the soil material with a highly compressible pore fluid, such as air, must be analyzed with the multi‐phase porous mixture theory. However, Terzaghi effective stress is practically applicable when the compressibilities of both the soil particles and the pore fluid are small enough compared to that of the soil skeleton.     

Dynamic analysis of strain localization in water‐saturated clay using a cyclic elasto‐viscoplastic model

A computational framework is presented for dynamic strain localization and deformation analyses of water‐saturated clay by using a cyclic elasto‐viscoplastic constitutive model. In the model, the nonlinear kinematic hardening rule and softening due to the structural degradation of soil particles are considered. In order to appropriately simulate the large deformation phenomenon in strain localization analysis, the dynamic finite element formulation for a two‐phase mixture is derived in the updated Lagrangian framework. The shear band development is shown through the distributions of viscoplastic shear strain, the axial strain, the mean effective stress, and the pore water pressure in a normally consolidated clay specimen. From the local stress–strain relations, more brittleness is found inside the shear bands than outside of them. The effects of partially drained conditions and mesh‐size dependency on the shear banding are also investigated. The effect of a partially drained boundary is found to be insignificant on the dynamic shear band propagation because of the rapid rate of applied loading and low permeability of the clay. Using the finer mesh results in slightly narrower shear bands; nonetheless, the results manifest convergency through the mesh refinement in terms of the overall shape of shear banding and stress–strain relations. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Importance of the mixed-phase cloud distribution in the control climate for assessing the response of clouds to carbon dioxide increase: a multi-model study

We have conducted a multi-model intercomparison of cloud-water in five state-of-the-art AGCMs run for control and doubled carbon dioxide climates. The most notable feature of the differences between the control and doubled carbon dioxide climates is in the distribution of cloud-water in the mixed-phase temperature band. The difference is greatest at mid and high latitudes. We found that the amount of cloud ice in the mixed phase layer in the control climate largely determines how much the cloud-water distribution changes for the doubled carbon dioxide climate. Therefore evaluation of the cloud ice distribution by comparison with data is important for future climate sensitivity studies. Cloud ice and cloud liquid both decrease in the layer below the melting layer, but only cloud liquid increases in the mixed-phase layer. Although the decrease in cloud-water below the melting layer occurs at all latitudes, the increase in cloud liquid in the mixed-phase layer is restricted to those latitudes where there is a large amount of cloud ice in the mixed-phase layer. If the cloud ice in the mixed-phase layer is concentrated at high latitudes, doubling of carbon dioxide might shift the center of cloud water distribution poleward which could decrease solar reflection because solar insolation is less at higher latitude. The magnitude of this poleward shift of cloud water appears to be larger for the higher climate sensitivity models, and it is consistent with the associated changes in cloud albedo forcing. For the control climate there is a clear relationship between the differences in cloud-water and relative humidity between the different models, for both magnitude and distribution. On the other hand the ratio of cloud ice to cloud-water follows the threshold temperature which is determined in each model. Improved measurements of relative humidity could be used to constrain the modeled representation of cloud water. At the same time, comparative analysis in global cloud resolving model simulations is necessary for further understanding of the relationships suggested in this paper.     

Reevaluation of historical ocean heat content variations with time-varying XBT and MBT depth bias corrections

As reported in former studies, temperature observations obtained by expendable bathythermographs (XBTs) and mechanical bathythermographs (MBTs) appear to have positive biases as much as they affect major climate signals. These biases have not been fully taken into account in previous ocean temperature analyses, which have been widely used to detect global warming signals in the oceans. This report proposes a methodology for directly eliminating the biases from the XBT and MBT observations. In the case of XBT observation, assuming that the positive temperature biases mainly originate from greater depths given by conventional XBT fall-rate equations than the truth, a depth bias equation is constructed by fitting depth differences between XBT data and more accurate oceanographic observations to a linear equation of elapsed time. Such depth bias equations are introduced separately for each year and for each probe type. Uncertainty in the gradient of the linear equation is evaluated using a non-parametric test. The typical depth bias is +10 m at 700 m depth on average, which is probably caused by various indeterminable sources of error in the XBT observations as well as a lack of representativeness in the fall-rate equations adopted so far. Depth biases in MBT are fitted to quadratic equations of depth in a similar manner to the XBT method. Correcting the historical XBT and MBT depth biases by these equations allows a historical ocean temperature analysis to be conducted. In comparison with the previous temperature analysis, large differences are found in the present analysis as follows: the duration of large ocean heat content in the 1970s shortens dramatically, and recent ocean cooling becomes insignificant. The result is also in better agreement with tide gauge observations. On leave from the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency.     

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM without flux corrections: experimental design and results

In this study, we constructed a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) for the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (CGCM) to investigate the parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity (CS). Previous studies of PPEs have mainly used the atmosphere-slab ocean models. A few PPE studies using a CGCM applied flux corrections, because perturbations in parameters can lead to large radiation imbalances at the top of the atmosphere and climate drifts. We developed a method to prevent climate drifts in PPE experiments using the MIROC5 CGCM without flux corrections. We simultaneously swept 10 parameters in atmosphere and surface schemes. The range of CS (estimated from our 35 ensemble members) was not wide (2.2–3.2?°C). The shortwave cloud feedback related to changes in middle-level cloud albedo dominated the variations in the total feedback. We found three performance metrics for the present climate simulations of middle-level cloud albedo, precipitation, and ENSO amplitude that systematically relate to the variations in shortwave cloud feedback in this PPE.     

Age determination of marine sediments in the western North Pacific by as partic acid chronology

The ages of fossil planktonic foraminifera,Pulleniatina obliquiloculata, in sediments (core 3bPC) from the western North Pacific were determined by aspartic acid chronology, which uses the racemization reaction rate constant of aspartic acid (k_Asp). Aspartic acid racemization-based ages (Asp ages) ranged from 7,600 yrBP at the surface, to 307,000 yrBP at a depth of 352.9 cm in the sediments. This sediment core was also dated by the glacial-interglacial fluctuation of δ¹⁸O chronology, and the ages determined by both chronologies were compared. The ages derived from aspartic acid chronology and δ¹⁸O stratigraphy were more or less consistent, but there appeared to be some differences in age estimates between these two dating methods at some depths within the core. In the core top sediments, the likely cause for the age discrepancy could be the loss of the surface sediment during sampling of the core. At depths of 66.3 and 139 cm within the core, Asp ages indicated reduced sedimentation rates duringca. 60,000-80,000 yrBP andca. 140,000–190,000 yrBP. The maximum age differences in both chronologies are 33,000 yr and 46,600 yr during each of these periods. These anomalous reductions in sedimentation rates occurring during these periods could possibly be related to some geological events, such as an increased dissolution effect of the calcium carbonate in the western North Pacific. Another possible reason for these age differences could be the unreliability in δ¹⁸O ages of core 3bPC as they were estimated by δ¹⁸O ages of another core, 3aPC.     

Simultaneous vertical measurements of in situ pH and CO2 in the sea using spectrophotometric profilers

We have developed new systems capable of profiling to >1000 m for measuring in situ pH and fugacity of CO₂ (fCO₂) in the ocean using spectrophotometric analysis (pH and CO₂ profilers). The in situ pH is determined by detecting the color change of the pH indicator (m-cresol purple). It can withstand ambient pressure to 1000 m depth. The CO₂ profiler analyzed in situ fCO₂ by detecting the change of pH in an inner solution, equilibrated with the seawater through a gas permeable membrane. It can be operated to 2500 m depth. We used an amorphous fluoropolymer tubing form of AF-2400 for the gas permeable membrane due to its high gas permeability coefficients. The inner solution was a mixture of 2 μM bromocresol purple (BCP) and 5 μM sodium hydroxide. This system gave us a response time of 1 minute, which is twice as fast as previous systems. The precisions of pH and CO₂ profilers were within 0.002 and 2.5% respectively. We have used these profilers to study the North Pacific, obtaining good agreement with the difference between the data from profilers and a discrete bottle of 0.002 ± 0.005 pH (SE, n = 25) and −0.4 ± 3 μatm (SE, n = 31).     

Simulation of long‐term consolidation behavior of soft sensitive clay using an elasto‐viscoplastic constitutive model

The phenomenon of excess pore water pressure increase or stagnation and continuing large ground deformation in soft sensitive clay following the completion of construction of embankment is simulated for a case study at Saint Alban, Quebec, Canada. The present model employs an updated Lagrangian finite element framework and is combined with an automatic time increment selection scheme. The simulation based on an elasto‐viscoplastic constitutive model considers soil‐structure degradation effect. It is shown that without consideration for the microstructural degradation effect, it is not possible to reproduce the field responses of soft sensitive clay even during the construction of the embankment. When the soil‐structure degradation effect is considered, the present model can offer reasonably accurate prediction for the consolidation behavior of soft sensitive clay, including the so‐called anomalous pore water pressure generation and continuing large deformation even after the end of construction, which has been posing numerous uncertainties on the long‐term performance of earth structures. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.