Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions |
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Authors: | Doug M Smith Adam A Scaife George J Boer Mihaela Caian Francisco J Doblas-Reyes Virginie Guemas Ed Hawkins Wilco Hazeleger Leon Hermanson Chun Kit Ho Masayoshi Ishii Viatcheslav Kharin Masahide Kimoto Ben Kirtman Judith Lean Daniela Matei William J Merryfield Wolfgang A Müller Holger Pohlmann Anthony Rosati Bert Wouters Klaus Wyser |
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Institution: | 1. Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK 2. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada 3. Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176, Norrk?ping, Sweden 4. Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Carrer del Doctor Trueta, 203, 08005, Barcelona, Spain 5. NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK 13. Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands 6. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands 7. Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, 305-0052, Japan 8. Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, 277-8568, Japan 9. RSMAS/MPO, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL, 33149, USA 10. Space Science Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC, 20375, USA 11. Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Bundesstra?e 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany 12. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
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Abstract: | We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change. |
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