南海热带气旋频数的气候预测方法

利用前期北半球500 hPa高度场格点资料、海温场(SST)格点资料,计算与后期热带气旋(TC)发生频数的相关系数,分析两个相关场显著相关区的统计特征,进一步分析其天气气候学意义和物理意义。选取若干相关系数高的格点,组成组合因子,建立二项式曲线方程,对影响南海以及登陆或影响广东的热带气旋,做年、月频数预测。预测试验和检验表明,二项式曲线预测模型有较高的拟合能力,在影响南海以及登陆或影响广东的热带气旋年、月频数预测中,有较好的效果。     

探空雷达干扰造成风速异常的现象和排除方法

针对DZZ—Ⅱ型自动站风速突然出现大风信号,且发生的时间均在探空观测时段内,通过采取人工模拟探空观测环境的试验后,分析产生的原因是：探空雷达电磁感应干扰影响。排除方法是加装信号线抗干扰措施,做好自动站电缆信号线屏蔽。提出了避免类似电磁干扰而影响自动站传感器信号,造成气象数据失真的问题。     

THE VARIABILITY CHARACTERISTICS AND PREDICTION OF GUANGDONG POWER LOAD DURING 2002 - 2004

The variability characteristics of Guangdong daily power load from 2002 to 2004 and its connection to meteorological variables are analyzed with wavelet analysis and correlation analysis.Prediction equations are established using optimization subset regression. The results show that a linear increasing trend is very significant and seasonal change is obvious. The power load exhibits significant quasi-weekly (5 - 7 days) oscillation, quasi-by-weekly (10 - 20 days) oscillation and intraseasonal (30 - 60 days) oscillation. These oscillations are caused by atmospheric low frequency oscillation and public holidays. The variation of Guangdong daily power load is obviously in decrease on Sundays, shaping like a funnel during Chinese New Year in particular. The minimum is found at the first and second day and the power load gradually increases to normal level after the third day during the long vacation of Labor Day and National Day. Guangdong power load is the most sensitive to temperature, which is the main affecting factor, as in other areas in China. The power load also has relationship with other meteorological elements to some extent during different seasons. The maximum of power load in summer, minimum during Chinese New Year and variation during Labor Day and National Day are well fitted and predicted using the equation established by optimization subset regression and accounting for the effect of workdays and holidays.     

10分钟平均最大风速与极大风速评估方程的建立

运用统计分析和气象统计预报的方法，对广东省8个气象站的日10分钟平均最大风速和日瞬间极大风速资料进行分析，发现这两种风速资料有较好的近似线性的关系。通过建立这两种风速的回归方程，获得判别这两风速记录的准确性及估计两风速数值的客观方法。     

不同天气类型广州新电视塔高层风速与地面风速的比较分析

利用广州新电视塔自动站和中大自动站2007年9月至2009年4月的观测资料,结合天气形势进行对比分析,结果表明:热带气旋天气类型的阵风特点是平均阵风、瞬间阵风最大,强风影响的时间长,大气边界层与地面风力差最大;冷空气天气类型的阵风特点是平均阵风较大,瞬间阵风最小,强风影响的时间长,大气边界层与地面风力差最小;低槽天气类型的阵风特点是平均阵风最小,瞬间阵风较大,强风影响的时间短,大气边界层与地面风力差较大。在热带气旋天气类型中,在珠江口和粤西沿海地区登陆的热带气旋对广州大气边界层的风力影响最大,最大阵风出现在热带气旋强度最强且路径离广州最近的时间段里;另外,弱冷空气对热带气旋的风力有增强作用。在冷空气天气类型中,500hPa形势场的旋转型低槽有利于大气边界层出现强风。在低槽天气类型中,强低槽类型有利于大气边界层出现时间长强度强的阵风,雷雨大风类型有利于大气边界层出现短时极大风。     

Windows Update同步服务技术应用

因应局域网内绝大部分的Windows用户要对系统进行自动更新的需求,针对微软公司提供的Windows同步更新服务（WSUS）技术,详细介绍通过Web页面对WSUS服务器进行配置及管理,通过组策略编辑器配置WSUS客户机,实现局域网内所有Windows计算机对系统进行自动更新。     

华南地区1961-2008年暴雨事件的气候变化特征

根据华南地区110个气象站1961-2008年逐日降水资料,采用线性趋势法,对华南地区暴雨事件的时空变化特征进行了研究.结果表明:近48 a来,华南年暴雨降水频数呈不显著的上升趋势,上升速率为0.18次/10a,其中两广地区的东南和西部、海南省呈增加趋势,两广地区中部呈减少趋势;前汛期、后汛期暴雨降水频数均呈不显著的上...     

THE VARIABILITY CHARACTERISTICS AND PREDICTION OF GUANGDONG POWER LOAD DURING 2002 – 2004

The variability characteristics of Guangdong daily power load from 2002 to 2004 and its connection to meteorological variables are analyzed with wavelet analysis and correlation analysis. Prediction equations are established using optimization subset regression. The results show that a linear increasing trend is very significant and seasonal change is obvious. The power load exhibits significant quasi-weekly (5 – 7 days) oscillation, quasi-by-weekly (10 – 20 days) oscillation and intraseasonal (30 – 60 days) oscillation. These oscillations are caused by atmospheric low frequency oscillation and public holidays. The variation of Guangdong daily power load is obviously in decrease on Sundays, shaping like a funnel during Chinese New Year in particular. The minimum is found at the first and second day and the power load gradually increases to normal level after the third day during the long vacation of Labor Day and National Day. Guangdong power load is the most sensitive to temperature, which is the main affecting factor, as in other areas in China. The power load also has relationship with other meteorological elements to some extent during different seasons. The maximum of power load in summer, minimum during Chinese New Year and variation during Labor Day and National Day are well fitted and predicted using the equation established by optimization subset regression and accounting for the effect of workdays and holidays.     

2002～2004年广东电力负荷的变化特征及预测

利用2002～2004年广东逐日电力负荷资料,采用小波分析、相关分析等方法研究了广东电力负荷的变化特征及与气象因子的关系,并采用最优子集回归方法建立了预测方程。结果表明,广东电力负荷具有非常明显的线性增长趋势,季节变化明显。存在明显的5～7天的准单周振荡,10～20天的准双周振荡及30～60天左右的季节内振荡。它们主要由大气低频振荡及节假日的影响所致。广东电力负荷在周日具有较明显的下降,春节期间呈明显的漏斗状分布,“五一”、“国庆”长假期间最低值主要出现在1～2日,3日以后逐渐恢复到正常状态。与我国其它地区一样,广东电力负荷对温度的变化最敏感,温度是其主要的影响因子,在不同的季节与不同的气象因子还有一定的关系。用最优子集回归方法建立的回归方程并考虑工作日、节假日期间的影响,对夏季峰值、春节谷值、“五一”、“国庆”期间的变化均有较好的拟合与预测。     

VARIATION OF PRECIPITATION DURING WINTER AS A CAUSE OF SUSTAINED DROUGHT IN GUANGDONG DURING THE PAST 50 YEARS

The variation characteristics of precipitation during the winter (between October and the following March, to be referred to as just “the winter” hereafter) in Guangdong province during the past 50 years (from 1957 to 2006) and the relationship with Pacific SST are studied using the methods of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, wavelet analysis, and correlation analysis. The results show that The Guangdong precipitation during the winter exhibits quasi-periodic significant oscillations of 40 years and 2 years; rainfall is less from the end of the 1950s to the start of the 1970s and from the end of the 1990s to the present than from the mid 1970s to the mid 1990s. The frequency of sustained drought is more than sustained flooding during the winter. The Guangdong precipitation during this time period is in significantly positive correlation to the equatorial central and eastern Pacific SST, but in a significantly negative correlation with the western and northern Pacific SST east of the Philippine Sea. 61.5% of the sustained drought occurred in the phase of negative anomalies of the Ni?o3.4 index and 38.5% in the phase of positive ones. A composite analysis of atmospheric circulation is performed for the positive and negative phases of the Ni?o3.4 region associated with the sustained drought. The results showed that a weak polar vortex, a strong trough in Europe and a ridge near Balkhash Lake, active cold air and consistent northerly wind anomalies controlling Guangdong at low levels, an inactive westerly low disturbance in the low-mid latitude of the Asian continent, and a weak southern branch westerly trough, are all mutual causes for the sustained drought.