THE VARIABILITY CHARACTERISTICS AND PREDICTION OF GUANGDONG POWER LOAD DURING 2002 - 2004

The variability characteristics of Guangdong daily power load from 2002 to 2004 and its connection to meteorological variables are analyzed with wavelet analysis and correlation analysis.Prediction equations are established using optimization subset regression. The results show that a linear increasing trend is very significant and seasonal change is obvious. The power load exhibits significant quasi-weekly (5 - 7 days) oscillation, quasi-by-weekly (10 - 20 days) oscillation and intraseasonal (30 - 60 days) oscillation. These oscillations are caused by atmospheric low frequency oscillation and public holidays. The variation of Guangdong daily power load is obviously in decrease on Sundays, shaping like a funnel during Chinese New Year in particular. The minimum is found at the first and second day and the power load gradually increases to normal level after the third day during the long vacation of Labor Day and National Day. Guangdong power load is the most sensitive to temperature, which is the main affecting factor, as in other areas in China. The power load also has relationship with other meteorological elements to some extent during different seasons. The maximum of power load in summer, minimum during Chinese New Year and variation during Labor Day and National Day are well fitted and predicted using the equation established by optimization subset regression and accounting for the effect of workdays and holidays.     

2002～2004年广东电力负荷的变化特征及预测

利用2002～2004年广东逐日电力负荷资料,采用小波分析、相关分析等方法研究了广东电力负荷的变化特征及与气象因子的关系,并采用最优子集回归方法建立了预测方程。结果表明,广东电力负荷具有非常明显的线性增长趋势,季节变化明显。存在明显的5～7天的准单周振荡,10～20天的准双周振荡及30～60天左右的季节内振荡。它们主要由大气低频振荡及节假日的影响所致。广东电力负荷在周日具有较明显的下降,春节期间呈明显的漏斗状分布,“五一”、“国庆”长假期间最低值主要出现在1～2日,3日以后逐渐恢复到正常状态。与我国其它地区一样,广东电力负荷对温度的变化最敏感,温度是其主要的影响因子,在不同的季节与不同的气象因子还有一定的关系。用最优子集回归方法建立的回归方程并考虑工作日、节假日期间的影响,对夏季峰值、春节谷值、“五一”、“国庆”期间的变化均有较好的拟合与预测。     

THE VARIABILITY CHARACTERISTICS AND PREDICTION OF GUANGDONG POWER LOAD DURING 2002 – 2004

The variability characteristics of Guangdong daily power load from 2002 to 2004 and its connection to meteorological variables are analyzed with wavelet analysis and correlation analysis. Prediction equations are established using optimization subset regression. The results show that a linear increasing trend is very significant and seasonal change is obvious. The power load exhibits significant quasi-weekly (5 – 7 days) oscillation, quasi-by-weekly (10 – 20 days) oscillation and intraseasonal (30 – 60 days) oscillation. These oscillations are caused by atmospheric low frequency oscillation and public holidays. The variation of Guangdong daily power load is obviously in decrease on Sundays, shaping like a funnel during Chinese New Year in particular. The minimum is found at the first and second day and the power load gradually increases to normal level after the third day during the long vacation of Labor Day and National Day. Guangdong power load is the most sensitive to temperature, which is the main affecting factor, as in other areas in China. The power load also has relationship with other meteorological elements to some extent during different seasons. The maximum of power load in summer, minimum during Chinese New Year and variation during Labor Day and National Day are well fitted and predicted using the equation established by optimization subset regression and accounting for the effect of workdays and holidays.     

养殖污水对水环境的影响预测

浙江三门湾宁海下洋涂围垦工程投入养殖后排放的养殖污水将对周边水环境产生的影响预测是该项目环境评价的重要内容。在海湾潮流动力模拟的基础上,建立了污染物对流扩散的数学模型,用以预测养殖污水排放后的扩散范围及强度大小,为环境评价提供科学依椐。     

海堤工程软基土工布加筋的抗滑作用分析

克服了现有的堤坝稳定分析法只能计及土工布的拉力对海堤抗滑稳定的有利作用（荷兰法或瑞典法）,而对于土工布与土体的界面摩阻力所产生的有利作用不能有效地计入的弱点,结合具体工程的原型观测结果分析,提出了利用土工布加固堤坝的弹性薄膜理论进行有限差分计算,编制程序计算了土工布拉力以及与土界面摩阻力的实际分布及其对海堤稳定的影响。并以瑞安市飞云江北岸标准海堤工程为例进行了计算分析,认为土工布与土界面摩阻力比土工布的拉力对海堤抗滑稳定安全系数的提高作用更大。