关于气候灾害及其成因与预测的研究

综述了气候灾害及其对农业生产的影响、气候灾害的时空特征与成因、以及作者近年来对气候灾害预测方法的研究与试验工作,并且对今后关于气候灾害研究的方向与重点提出了一些看法和建议。     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS BY NESTING HYDROLOGY MODEL DHSVM WITH REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL RegCM2/CHINA

Based on improvement of a distributed hydrology-soil-vegetation model (DHSVM for short)and its application to North China,a nested regional climatic-hydrologic model system is developedby connecting DHSVM with RegCM2/China.The simulated climate scenarios,including controland 2×CO_2 outputs,are downscaled to 8 stations in Luanhe River and Sanggan River Basins todrive the hydrology model.According to simulation results,under double CO_2 scenarios,annualmean temperature and evapotranspiration will increase 2.8C and 29 mm,respectively;precipitation also increase but with different value for each basin,6 mm for Luanhe River Basinwhile 46 mm for Sanggan River Basin;runoff change for the two basins is different too,27 mmdecrease for Luanhe River Basin while 26 mm increase for Sanggan River Basin.As a result,therunoff in future for Luanhe River Basin and Sanggan River Basin will be 74 mm and 71 mm,respectively,which is approximately a quarter of annual mean runoff(284 mm)of the wholecountry.Total streamflow for the two basins will decrease about 2.5×10~8m~3.All these indicatethat the warm and dry trend will continue in the two river basins under double CO_2 scenarios.Thenested model system,with both climatic and hydrologic prediction ability,could also be applied toother basins in China by parameter adjustment.     

西太平洋副热带高压演变物理机制的研究

针对前人利用低谱模式研究大气运动多平衡态存在的不足, 应用四因子最优子集反演方法和相应的资料分别反演获得了描述西太平洋副热带高压位置偏北年和偏南年500 hPa高度场和相应OLR场低谱截断基函数具体形式. 应用多平衡态理论研究了西太平洋副热带高压演变的物理机制. 结果表明, 造成西太平洋副热带高压位置异常的原因是前期外部的热力强迫的差异, 导致了大气产生不同的响应波型. 较强的经向和纬向外部热力差异致使大气所产生的响应波型间存在波流和波波相互作用, 从而使得西太平洋副热带高压发生北跳后而位置偏北; 相反, 较弱的经向和纬向外部热力差异致使大气所产生的响应波型间不存在波流相互作用, 使得西太平洋副热带高压不发生北跳, 只随外源强迫的振荡而振荡, 造成西太平洋副热带高压位置偏南.     

几十年来大气环流与大尺度动力学的研究进展及2000年研究展望

一、大气环流与大尺度动力学的研究进展近几十年来,国际上关于大气环流与大尺度动力学的研究取得很大进展。一方面由于观测技术的提高使得全球大气环流的观测资料不断增多,不断揭示出许多大气环流规律;另一方面由于数学、物理学,特别是计算机与计算数学的蓬勃发展,使得大气环流与大尺度动力学从一种简单、定性论述的学科变成一种比较严格的数理学科。大气环流与大尺度动力学是气象学上一对孪生兄弟,大气环流的发展不断提出动力学问题,而动力学的重大突破加深了人们对大气环流的认识。大气环流应包括两个部分:一是从整体来看全球大气的运动形态、运动特征及其物理机制;二是它的各个组     

THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FORCED STATIONARY PLANETARY WAVE PROPAGATIONS IN SUMMER NORTHERN HEMISPHERE

The three-dimensional propagations of the forced stationary planetary waves in a realistic summer current, in which the vertical and horizontal wind shears are included, are discussed by using the refractive index squared of waves in a spherical coordinate system.The results show that there is no polar wave guide in stationary planetary wave propagations in summer. Thus, stationary planetary waves cannot propagate into the stratosphere. However, there are a wave guide pointing from the subtropics toward middle and high latitudes in the troposphere and another wave guide pointing from the lower troposphere at middle latitudes toward the upper troposphere near 30°oN in the forced stationary planetary wave propagations.A linearized, steady-state, quasi-geostrophic 34-level spherical coordinate model with Rayleigh friction and Newtonian cooling, horizontal kinematic thermal diffusivity is used to simulate the wave guides of three-dimensional propagations of stationary planetary waves in summer.     

冬季热源位置与热源的南北宽度对定常行星波的影响

本文应用一个定常、准地转34层球坐标模式来讨论冬季北半球多层模式大气对定常热源强迫的响应. 计算结果表明:在冬季位于高纬度的定常热源强迫所产生的定常行星波的振幅要比位于中纬度的定常热源强迫所产生的定常行星波的振幅要大.计算结果也表明了热源的南北宽度愈宽,其强迫所产生的定常行星波的振幅愈大.     

二氧化碳红外吸收带透过率的计算

本文较简单而系统地说明了大气中CO_2及类似于CO_2的线形分子的红外吸收带透过率公式及计算方法。在不伤害物理本质的前提下采用分子光谱模型处理。在计算P、R两支谱线的吸收时,采用艾尔萨斯模型并加上弱谱线吸收订正。当有Q支谱线时则在靠近Q支吸收有影响的波段计及Q支谱线的吸收,对它也采用相应的模型处理。     

Numerical Simulation of the Relationship between the Anomaly of Subtropical High over East Asia and the Convective Activities in the Western Tropical Pacific

In this paper, a close relationship between the intraseasonal variation of subtropical high over East Asia and the convective activities around the South China Sea and the Philippines is analysed from OLR data.This relationship is studied by using the theory of wave propagating in a slowly varying medium and by using a quasi-geoslrophic, linear, spherical model and the IAP-GCM, respectively. The results show that when the SST is warming around the western tropical Pacific or the Philippines, the convective activities are intensified around the Philippines. As a consequence, the subtropical high will be intensified over East Asia. The computed results also show that when the anomaly of convective activities are caused around the Philippines, a teleconnection pattern of circulation anomalies will be caused over South Asia, East Asia and North America.     

一个描述河陆风变化的数值模式及其数值实验

本文设计了一个包括水平及垂直扩散、牛顿冷却的二维46层非弹性运动方程模式来模拟及研究河陆风的变化。在模式中包括了太阳辐射;地-气系统的长波辐射;地表面、河表面向大气的感热与潜热输送以及地表面向土壤层的热传导等物理过程。 本模式采用分解算法及隐式时间差分方案,计算结果表明,这个模式无论对稳定层结或不稳定层结其计算都是稳定的,且所需计算时间也是很节省的,其计算结果是符合实际的。     

The Dynamical Effects of Divergent Wind on the Intraseasonal variabinty of the East Asian Circulation

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