Regional differences and determinants of built-up area expansion in China

Based on remote sensing data on land use provided by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and socio-economic data collected by the authors,this paper analyzes the trends and regional differences in built-up area(BUA) expansion in China from the late 1980s to 2000,and empirically estimates the major determinants of BUA expansion in different regions in 1996―2000.In 1989―2000,although China's overall BUA expansion accelerated,the trends differed significantly among regions.BUA expansion in the central and western regions accelerated significantly,but it slowed down considerably in the east-ern region.The estimation results from our econometric analysis reveal that BUA expansion in the eastern region reached a period when economic growth had no further significant impact on per capita BUA,the land utilization in this region has become more intensive with further expansion of the economy.In the central and western regions,the BUA has expanded remarkably due to the relatively more flexible land development policies and the relatively cheap land prices.Therefore,as the econ-omy continues to grow rapidly,policies relating to BUA expansion and cultivated land reductions may face more serious challenges in the central and western regions.     

Globalizing Polycentricity in Istanbul: Mamdani-Type Fuzzy Rule-Based Model of CBD Office Space Rents

For some two millennia Istanbul has been one of the world's greatest cities, and is today classified as an "Alpha-" world city in the Globalization and World Cities (GaWC) group's 2010 rankings. Istanbul is an emerging global city that is facilitating Turkey's transnational integration into the global economy, and as of June 2009 the city had the second largest office stock among all Southeast European countries. This paper investigates the determinants of office rent levels in the city's Central Business District (CBD) and the spatial variation of rents in a polycentric metropolis. The paper uses a stepwise regression and a Mamdani-type fuzzy rule-based model to estimate office space rents, and compares empirical results with those of a conventional OLS regression analysis. Rents are driven not only by physical characteristics and locational services, but also the terms of lease contracts. New CBD locations that command the highest rents on spacious, high-rise office spaces with comparatively few employees conform well with contemporary accounts of world-city financial districts, and confirm the significance of urban office infrastructures for globally oriented financial elites beyond the familiar roster of Global North world cities. The traditional center retains the core purpose identified nearly a century ago, in Marshall's analysis of centralization during the most vibrant period of the industrial age. Despite all the transformations of transnational urbanist polycentricity, the traditional CBD is still the place with the most diverse mix of activities, and the greatest variation in rents.     

长吉地区产业集聚及其影响因素分析

运用区位基尼系数和回归分析方法研究了长吉地区产业集聚及其影响因素.结果表明,该区制造业就业高度集聚在区域中心区县,区域传统优势产业和资金—技术密集型行业集聚水平高,对资源依赖性强的行业、劳动密集型行业在区内的集聚水平差异大;该区发展阶段、发展模式、资源条件等区域特征对产业集聚的作用明显,规模经济、地方保护、产业政策等区域产业特征显著影响该区产业集聚.在此基础上,提出促进汽车和石化产业融合、发展区域资源优势产业、以产业对外开放促产业集聚的产业集聚优化建议.     

Spatial Differentiation of Rural Touristization and Its Determinants in China: A Geo-detector-based Case Study of Yesanpo Scenic Area

Tourism has emerged as a major driving force in the growth and expansion of rural settlements. After several studies revealed spatial differentiation of touristization among rural settlements, studies were conducted to explain this phenomenon. However, most of these studies explained spatial differentiation of rural touristization in a qualitative way. More robust and detailed quantitative results are needed to evaluate the relative roles of different factors. In this study, which takes Yesanpo tourism as a case study, the Geo-detector method was introduced to evaluate determining factors of rural touristization. Results show that “distance to core entry”, “tourist number and sojourn time”, and “distance to the nearest scenic area” have had a strong effect on the rural touristization in Yesanpo, whereas “distance to river”, “elevation”, “distance to main road”, and “slope” have had a weak influence. The latter did, however, contribute a lot to touristization when interacting with “distance to core entry”, “tourist number and sojourn time”, and “distance to the nearest scenic”, indicating the importance of these four factors. Higher rural touristization occurred in the zone near the core entry, with many tourists, long sojourn times, and proximity to the scenic area.     

扬州市住宅价格空间分异的影响因素与驱动机制

构建包含20个评价因子、4 个影响因素和4 个预期修正因素在内的城市住宅价格空间分异影响因素评价体系,基于评价因子和预期修正,分别得出单户住宅档次与水平、小区建设档次与水平、区位与生活便利性、周边景观与环境等4 个影响因素强度的得分,并分析其空间分异格局。以2012 年扬州市1305 个小区的平均住宅单价为因变量,4 个基本影响因素得分为自变量,进行回归分析,探索所有住宅及各子市场价格分异的主要因素,并分析其驱动机制。结果表明：① 4 个影响因素强度格局明显不同,住宅自身因素的格局呈现中心低外围高的圈层式分异,而外部作用因素强度呈现中心高外围低、西高东低的扇型与圈层相结合式空间分异格局;② 扬州市总体住宅价格空间分异的核心影响因素是小区建设档次与水平,不同类型住宅子市场的价格影响因素各不相同;③ 扬州市住宅价格空间分异的主要驱动力是特定住宅类型与档次建设的区位指向、特定收入阶层的空间集聚、公共物品投资的空间差异、城市居住用地扩展与城市更新的区位指向。     

都市边缘区农村集资房时空演进特征及驱动机制 ——以20世纪90年代广州白云区为例

基于ArcGIS、SPSS分析平台,以广州白云区为例,对农村集资房项目的空间分布特征及影响因素进行了梳理。ArcGIS空间分析结果表明：1）农村集资房空间生产时空演进由“点状”发展走向“交通线状”蔓延,农村集资房空间生产对交通干线的依赖性明显;2）农村集资房空间生产表现出明显的空间集聚性,农村集资房项目相对所属镇街行政中心的空间集聚效应由于区位的不同而存在差别。通过SPSS数理分析发现：1）农村集资房市场发展与商品房市场发展水平存在正相关性,农村集资房开发与房地产市场发展相伴相随;2）政策是农村集资房时空演进的另一重要影响因素,左右着农村集资房的发展方向。政府力（权力）、市场力（资本）和社区力（抗争）等3种力在不同时期作用方向有所不同,推动着农村集资房的形成与发展。     

厦门岛城市空间扩张特征及其影响因素分析

海岸带是目前世界上城市化最集中的区域,海岛作为海岸带的一个特殊地理组成,其城市空间扩张过程可以理解为城市发展与自然地理环境之间相互耦合作用的结晶。本文以中国东南沿海的厦门岛为例,结合厦门岛城市发展的相关政策、城市规划、人口、产业等历史与现状资料的文本分析,通过图片修整和遥感地理信息分析相结合的方法,首先回顾厦门岛近100 年的城市化历程,分析厦门岛海岸线、岛屿形状、建成区、交通、行政区划及主要土地利用类型历史变化及城市空间扩张特征;然后从行政区划、城市总体规划、产业发展、地形、围填海、交通和人口等方面分别探讨影响海岛城市空间扩张的潜在决定因素;总结各种因素对海岛城市空间扩张的作用;以期为中国甚至世界其它沿海城市合理开发海岛,促进海岸带可持续城市化提供科学借鉴。     

南京市不同社会群体的贫困集聚度、贫困特征及其决定因素

基于2005年在南京市进行的大规模家庭户调查,检查城市不同社会群体的贫困发生率和贫困集聚度,并分析不同贫困群体的特征及贫困的决定因素。1370个调查案例被分为三种类型:无失业人员的城市家庭、有失业人员的城市家庭、农民工家庭。研究采用主观感知和客观测度两种方法分析不同城市群体的贫困发生率和贫困集聚度。城市贫困群体的特征分析集中于其日常生活的最基本元素,包括人口学特征、社会权利、住房条件、邻里关系和社会网络等。研究发现,有失业人员的城市家庭与农民工家庭有着相似的贫困发生率,后者更遭受多重不利。在贫困决定因素方面,城市家庭的贫困主要取决于不利的个人和家庭特征因素,而农民工家庭的贫困很大程度上与制度歧视相联系,农民工不仅在生活条件上而且在社会保障方面仍无法真正融入城市社会。     

走向大中小城市协调发展的中国新型城镇化格局——建国以来中国城市规模分布演化与影响因素

为了落实国家新型城镇化规划提出的大中小城市协调发展战略,对1952-2014年中国城市规模分布指数进行演化分析,并在时间序列分析基础上探索了影响因素。结果表明,2000年以来,中国城市规模分布一改长期的分散化趋势,正走向集中化;人口规模增长、政策干预以及城市之间信息和交通成本的节约,都促使城市规模分布分散化;人均GDP长期以来促进了城市规模分布的集中,但近年来开始促进分散化;对外开放水平则主要促进分布的集中。未来应以全国适度均衡发展作为指导方针;远期以市场一体化,近期以共赢互利机制建设为抓手,促进城市群内大中小城市协调分工,优势互补;注意政策的稳定性和长期性,减少城市化格局的人为波动。     

Population distribution in China-characteristics,components, determinants since 1949

lintroductionPopulahondistribuhonisaSynthesizedindicatorofthephysical,socialandeconomicsituation,whichalsoexertSsiofcantimpactonsocio-economicdotlopment.AnhonalPOpulationdistributionhasbecomeamajorgoalofPOpulahonanddevelopmentregulationin~deVelopingcountriesinland1983).ChinaisavaStandPOpulouscountly.ItSvariousregionshaVedifferentphysical,economicandhistoricalcondihonsaswellascurrentPOpulationchacteristjcs.Populationdistribuhonvallesfromregiontoregion.RahonalPOpulahondistribuhonisanimPO…