2007年8月10—12日山东半岛持续性特大暴雨的维持机制分析

利用多普勒天气雷达资料、常规观测资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对2007年8月10—12日发生在山东半岛持续性特大暴雨的特征及维持机制进行了分析。结果表明：本次持续性特大暴雨与西太平洋副热带高压中心稳定少动和其边缘不断有冷空气侵入有关;雷达回波强度图上,10—11日最强回波＞50 dBz,12日回波强度在40～45 dBz,其径向速度的零速度线表现不同,但均反映为暖平流;暴雨前期山东半岛具备了发生强雷暴所需的不稳定大气层结,副高边缘的低空东南急流为山东半岛输送了充足的水汽,从而有利于山东半岛暴雨的维持;暴雨维持的动力场特征为：散度场维持低层辐合、高层辐散,垂直速度场为较强的上升运动。     

基于多种代用资料的南极涛动指数重建

Based on multiple proxies from the Southern Hemisphere, an austral summer (December-January-February: DJF) Antarctic Oscillation Index (AAO) since 1500 A.D. was reconstructed with a focus on interannual to interdecadal variability (< 50 a). By applying a multivariate regression method, the observational AAO-proxy relations were calibrated and cross-validated for the period of 1957-89. The regressions were employed to compute the DJF-AAO index for 1500-1956. To verify the results, the authors checked the explained variance (r2), the reduction of error (RE), and the standard error (SE). Cross-validation was performed by applying a leave-one-out validation method. Over the entire reconstruction period, the mean values of r2, RE, and SE are 59.9%, 0.47, and 0.67, respectively. These statistics indicate that the DJF-AAO reconstruction is relatively skillful and reliable for the last ~460 years. The reconstructed AAO variations on the interannual and interdecadal timescales compare favorably with those of several shorter sea level pressure (SLP)-based AAO indices. The leading periods of the DJF-AAO index over the last 500 years are ~2.4, ~2.6, ~6.3, ~24.1, and ~37.6 years, all of which are significant at the 95% level as estimated by power spectral analysis.     

山东半岛城市群创新能力评价研究

在深入剖析城市创新能力内涵的基础上,构建了创新型城市的要素结构模型,并从创新资源、创新载体、创新制度、创新环境、创新绩效5个方面构建了城市创新能力评价指标体系,同时系统阐述了一级指标的内涵,对每个二级指标选取了相应的统计指标来衡量;采用了因子赋权评价法和系统聚类分析法对山东半岛城市群创新能力进行评价,对其空间分异特征进行了深入分析,得出如下结论:山东半岛城市群的创新能力发展水平空间差异悬珠,其中,济南、青岛在5个方面都具有明显优势,烟台、潍坊、淄博居其次,东营、威海则较弱,日照各方面能力都明显偏低。在此基础上,提出了提升山东半岛城市群整体创新能力的措施。     

南极无冰区菲尔德斯半岛生态环境信息图谱的构建

将地学信息图谱的方法引入到南极无冰区生态环境的研究中,以菲尔德斯半岛作为研究区,采用矢-栅混合数据模型确定图谱单元,通过数据挖掘对环境诸要素信息进行分类提取、分级和归纳概括,构建了地形地貌、土壤、植被、人类活动等系列单要素专题信息图谱模型和环境景观综合信息图谱模型,对图谱模型进行了空间三维可视化设计,定量化、定位化、谱系化地揭示了区域生态环境及其要素的空间形态结构和空间相关特征,为南极无冰区生态环境的深入研究提供新的技术途径和科学依据。     

南极普里兹湾沉积生物标志物记录及浮游植物群落结构变化

本文利用浮游植物标志物（菜子甾醇、甲藻甾醇和长链烯酮）作为重建单种浮游植物（硅藻、甲藻和颗石藻）的指标,对普里兹湾浮游植物群落结构的变化进行研究。结果表明研究海域表层沉积物和III-12柱样沉积物中的生物标志物记录具有明显的空间和时间变化特征。用生物标志物重建的浮游植物总量（菜子甾醇+甲藻甾醇+长链烯酮）变化范围在391.0~1470.6ng/g之间,在过去的大约100年时间里海洋初级生产力呈上升趋势,但近10年略有下降,这种分布趋势与区域气候变化密切相关。普里兹湾及其邻近海域表层沉积物中浮游植物标志物的总含量变化范围为215.2~1249.3 ng/g,重建的浮游植物生产量呈现湾内高、湾外低（陆坡、深海区最低）的特征,并与2005年现场调查资料表层海水叶绿素a、有机碳和生物硅含量分布趋势相符,最大值均出现在普里兹湾中心区域,这意味着底部被埋藏的浮游植物标志物总含量和硅藻植物群落有很高的一致性,反映出海洋底部对上层海洋过程的一致响应。     

南极旅游业的发展与中国应采取的对策的思考

南极旅游是人类和平利用南极的方式之一。南极旅游始于上世纪五十年代末。在此后的半个多世纪中,南极旅游呈稳步发展趋势,游客人数明显上升,游览路线日渐成熟,交通方式逐步固化,多国经营者合作模式不断完善。与此同时,《南极条约》体系对南极旅游的环保规制也在不断加强。中国涉足南极旅游的时间较短,目前每年只有二三百人员赴南极旅游。鉴于南极旅游有利于提高人们欣赏自然景观、提高环保意识,有利于增进国际文化交流与环保合作,有利于促进产业结构的调整和优化,因此,建议中国加强对南极旅游问题的研究,尽快制订相应的法律法规,使南极旅游的开展与管理有法可依,有序进行;加快对国际规则的熟悉,加快与国际惯例的接轨;按照商业的发展规律去推动南极旅游业。     

南极涛动对福建前汛期降水的预测意义

利用1979-2009年逐月NCEP／NCAR再分析资料和福建省66站降水资料,分析了3－4月南极涛动（AAO）的变化对后期福建前汛期（5－6月）降水的影响。结果表明：3－4月平均的AAO指数与福建前汛期降水有很好的正相关性,前期AAO偏强时,后期前汛期降水偏多,反之亦然;且AAO异常时降水的同号率为100％。对AAO异常年的分析发现,当前期AAO异常强时,后期北方冷空气活动频繁,南方暖湿气流输送强盛,在华南北部产生强烈锋生,导致福建前汛期降水偏多;反之,降水偏少。上述结论为福建前汛期降水预测提供了一条可行的新途径。     

春季南亚高压在中南半岛上空建立与500hPa副高断裂的关系

利用NCEP／NCAR再分析资料及NOAA的OLR资料,研究了春季南亚高压在中南半岛上空建立与500hPa副高在孟加拉湾上空断裂的关系。结果表明,南亚高压建立之前,对流从“海洋大陆”向北推进,首先在中南半岛建立;而孟加拉湾地区由于青藏高原感热作用在对流层中低层形成一个反Hadley环流型的局地经圈环流,15°N附近500—700hPa有下沉运动中心,它抑制了孟加拉湾对流的建立,也不利于500hPa副高带断裂。南亚高压在中南半岛建立之后,位于高压中心西南侧的孟加拉湾上空出现一个强的辐散中心,孟加拉湾地区15°N附近的下沉运动消失,对流发展起来,降水量增加并释放大量潜热,非绝热加热中心位于500hPa,此时副高脊线断裂。因此,高层南亚高压建立所产生的辐散运动很可能对孟加拉湾上空500hPa副高带断裂及对流建立起到了触发作用。     

山东半岛东部南北岸典型砂质海岸沉积、地貌的横向差异及成因分析———以海阳万米海滩岸段和威海国际海水浴场岸段为例

根据2011年在海阳万米海滩岸段与威海国际海水浴场岸段调查获得的夏、冬两季海岸实测地形剖面与沉积物粒度数据,并收集相关水文资料,对南北两海岸地貌与沉积差异性进行分析,探讨了半岛东部南北岸典型砂质海岸动力环境的差异。研究结果表明,南部海岸宽广平缓,发育滩脊、滩肩、沙波纹等地貌,沉积物在水下岸坡上段以中粗砂、中细砂为主,水下岸坡以下段以粉砂、黏土质粉砂为主;北部海岸地形陡,发育滩肩陡坎、水下沙坝等地貌,沉积物以砾质砂为主。导致这些差异的动力为风、波浪、潮汐及沿岸流堆积。     

Quaternary Volcanic-Related Acid Hydrothermal Alteration in the Ugusu Silica Stone Deposit, Western Izu Peninsula, Central Japan: Geology and Alteration

Acid alteration areas accompanying Quaternary volcanoes are widespread in the western Izu Peninsula, central Japan. The Ugusu alteration area is the largest among them and is mined for “silica stone” at the silica body in the core of the alteration area. Silica zone defined by previous studies is subdivided into highly leached brecciated silica zone and residual silica zone, which extend along a NNW‐SSE–NNE‐SSW direction of fractures/faults. Fe‐rich, alunite, advanced argillic alteration, and intermediate argillic alteration zones occur toward the outside surrounding the two silica zones. The ascent of acid hydrothermal fluid would be responsible for the silica zones and surrounding alteration zones at an earlier stage, while the hydrothermal brecciation and silica veins were caused by a limited supply of silica‐saturated fluids at later stages. Based on the available mineral stability relations and fluid inclusion thermometries, the formation temperatures are estimated to be: >300°C for the residual silica zone; >290°C for the diaspore association in the advanced argillic alteration zone; and <260°C for the kaolinite association in the intermediate argillic alteration zone. The later stage quartz druses have been formed at 200–260°C. The Ugusu–Fukata acid hydrothermal systems were active at 1.5–1.2 Ma, which were temporally related to the Tanaba Andesite volcanism. Hydrothermal system at the Seikoshi gold–silver deposit survived until 0.7 Ma after the volcanism. In the western half of the Izu Peninsula, subduction of the Philippine Sea plate underneath the Suruga Trough caused nearly N–S‐trending maximum horizontal compressive stress (σ_Hmax) and the resultant formation of similarly trending alteration areas and Au‐Ag vein‐type deposits in the Ugusu‐Toi‐Seikoshi area. From a practical viewpoint, at the Ugusu silica stone deposit, the fracture‐controlled vertical morphology of the silica body provides an important guide for exploration. Because the alteration zones occur both in the lower and upper sides of the silica bodies, it is important to make sure to which side the alteration zones correspond.