南极涛动对福建前汛期降水的预测意义

利用1979-2009年逐月NCEP／NCAR再分析资料和福建省66站降水资料，分析了3－4月南极涛动（AAO）的变化对后期福建前汛期（5－6月）降水的影响。结果表明：3－4月平均的AAO指数与福建前汛期降水有很好的正相关性，前期AAO偏强时，后期前汛期降水偏多，反之亦然；且AAO异常时降水的同号率为100％。对AAO异常年的分析发现，当前期AAO异常强时，后期北方冷空气活动频繁，南方暖湿气流输送强盛，在华南北部产生强烈锋生，导致福建前汛期降水偏多；反之，降水偏少。上述结论为福建前汛期降水预测提供了一条可行的新途径。

Antarctic Oscillation’s Significance for Prediction of Rainfall in May and June in Fujian

Using the monthly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the rainfall data from 66 stations in Fujian from 1979 to 2009, this paper analyzes the influences of the variation of Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) in March and April on the rainfall before the flood season (May and June) in Fujian. The results show that there is a positive correlation between the March and April average AAO index and the rainfall before the flood season in Fujian. The stronger AAO index is correlated with more rainfall in May and June, and vice versa. And the positive AAO index anomaly is associated with the positive rainfall anomaly, and vice versa. Furthermore, the analysis of the AAO anomaly found that the significant strong AAO will be corresponding to more active cold air in the Northern China and the stronger wet and warm air in the Southern China. Therefore, the strong frontogenesis will occur in the northern South China, which may result in more rainfall in May and June, and vice versa. These findings may provide a new way to predict the rainfall that occurs before the flood season in Fujian.