Use of sinkhole and specific capacity distributions to assess vertical gradients in a karst aquifer

The carbonate-rock aquifer in the Great Valley, West Virginia, USA, was evaluated using a database of 687 sinkholes and 350 specific capacity tests to assess structural, lithologic, and topographic influences on the groundwater flow system. The enhanced permeability of the aquifer is characterized in part by the many sinkholes, springs, and solutionally enlarged fractures throughout the valley. Yet, vertical components of subsurface flow in this highly heterogeneous aquifer are currently not well understood. To address this problem, this study examines the apparent relation between geologic features of the aquifer and two spatial indices of enhanced permeability attributed to aquifer karstification: (1) the distribution of sinkholes and (2) the occurrence of wells with relatively high specific capacity. Statistical results indicate that sinkholes (funnel and collapse) occur primarily along cleavage and bedding planes parallel to subparallel to strike where lateral or downward vertical gradients are highest. Conversely, high specific capacity values are common along prominent joints perpendicular or oblique to strike. The similarity of the latter distribution to that of springs suggests these fractures are areas of upward-convergent flow. These differences between sinkhole and high specific capacity distributions suggest vertical flow components are primarily controlled by the orientation of geologic structure and associated subsurface fracturing.     

Evaluation of approaches to calculate debris-flow parameters for hazard assessment

Many different runout prediction methods can be applied to estimate the mobility of future debris flows during hazard assessment. The present article reviews the empirical, analytical, simple flow routing and numerical techniques. All these techniques were applied to back-calculate a debris flow, which occurred in 1982 at La Guingueta catchment, in the Eastern Pyrenees. A sensitivity analysis of input parameters was carried out, while special attention was paid to the influence of rheological parameters. We used the Voellmy fluid rheology for our analytical and numerical modelling, since this flow resistance law coincided best with field observations. The simulation results indicated that the “basal” friction coefficients rather affect the runout distance, while the “turbulence” terms mainly influence flow velocity. A comparison of the velocity computed on the fan showed that the analytical model calculated values similar to the numerical ones. The values of our rheological parameters calibrated at La Guingueta agree with data back-calculated for other debris flows. Empirical relationships represent another method to estimate total runout distance. The results confirmed that they contain an important uncertainty and they are strictly valid only for the conditions, which were the basis for their development. With regards to the simple flow routing algorithm, this methods could satisfactorily simulate the total area affected by the 1982 debris flow, but it was not able to directly calculate total runout distance and velocity. Finally, a suggestion on how different runout prediction methods can be applied to generate debris-flow hazard maps is presented. Taking into account the definition of hazard and intensity, the best choice would be to divide the resulting hazard maps into two types: “final hazard maps” and “preliminary hazard maps”. Only the use of numerical models provided final hazard maps, because they could incorporate different event magnitudes and they supplied output-values for intensity calculation. In contrast, empirical relationships and flow routing algorithms, or a combination of both, could be applied to create preliminary hazard maps. The present study only focussed on runout prediction methods. Other necessary tasks to complete the hazard assessment can be looked up in the “Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning” included in this Special Issue.     

Assessment of disaster resilience capacity of hillslope communities with high risk for geological hazards

This study presents a novel preparedness assessment method for assessing hazard mitigation and environmental planning of hillslope communities. A professional questionnaire was utilized to weight each indicator. Communities in Hsinchu, Taichung and Nantou counties with debris flow hazards were taken as study samples. Debris flow risk and landslide susceptibility for each community were determined using Geographic Information System (GIS) technology and logistic regression analysis. Thus, a novel risk assessment method for evaluating disaster resilience capacity of hillslope communities was established. This method was then applied to assess casualties caused by Typhoon Herb in 1996 and Typhoon Mindulle in 2004. Additionally, the analytical results generated by this assessment method were discussed with the aim of developing references for implementation of risk analysis, increasing the effectiveness of disaster mitigation, and reducing future loss of life and property.     

An operational multiscale system for hazards prediction, mapping, and response

By definition, a crisis is a situation that requires assistance to be managed. Hence, response to a crisis involves the merging of local and non-local emergency response personnel. In this situation, it is critical that each participant: (1) know the roles and responsibilities of each of the other participants; (2) know the capabilities of each of the participants; and (3) have a common basis for action. For many types of natural disasters, this entails having a common operational picture of the unfolding events, including detailed information on the weather, both current and forecasted, that may impact on either the emergency itself or on response activities. The Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) is a comprehensive package of hazard prediction models and casualty and damage assessment tools that provides a linkage between a modeled or observed effect and the attendant consequences for populations, infrastructure, and resources, and, hence, provides the common operational picture for emergency response. The Operational Multiscale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) is an atmospheric simulation system that links the latest methods in computational fluid dynamics and high-resolution gridding technologies with numerical weather prediction to provide specific weather analysis and forecast capability that can be merged into the geographic information system framework of CATS. This paper documents the problem of emergency response as an end-to-end system and presents the integrated CATS–OMEGA system as a prototype of such a system that has been used successfully in a number of different situations.     

松花江哈尔滨段河床冲积物与沙尘天气关系的讨论

笔者重点分析了哈尔滨河床冲积物的粒度组成,结合沙尘沉降物的粒度组成,论述了裸露河床冲积物对沙尘天气的影响。河床冲积物及沙尘沉降物粒度分析结果显示,裸露河床冲积物粒径大于63μm的颗粒占84%以上,而小于63μm粒径的颗粒很少,小于10μm的颗粒微乎其微;沙尘沉降物中小于63μm的粉粘颗粒含量在90%以上。对河床冲积物而言,无论是砂级别的粗颗粒物质还是粉粘级别的细颗粒物质都与沙尘沉降物的粒度无相关性,对沙尘暴物质组成没有影响或影响很小。受砂级别的粗颗粒物质扬起高度和搬运距离的限制,沙尘暴发生时,裸露河床中的冲积物颗粒不会被远距离搬运而影响到整个哈尔滨地区,真正影响整个哈尔滨地区的沙尘物质是小于63μm的粉砂级别的颗粒,特别是小于10μm的粉尘。笔者认为对哈尔滨沙尘天气产生重大影响的是含有大量细颗粒物质的城市地表土和建筑土等,这些地域是防止沙尘天气的重点治理区域。     

影响低渗透油藏低速非线性渗流的实验研究

以膨胀性的粘土为主要研究对象,通过粘土浆体的流变性实验和填砂管渗流实验,并使用一种新研制的微流量测量工具,研究了低渗岩心在较低流速下的渗流特性;利用微尺度流动理论,Einstein粘度定律等进行了理论分析,对引起低渗透油藏低速非线性渗流的影响因素进行了初步的探索.结论认为,粘土的膨胀性以及其水化后形成浆体的流变性是引起低速非线性渗流的主要因素之一.     

Numerical Experiment on Two-Dimensional Line Thermal

The time evolution of a two-dimensional line thermal-a turbulent flow produced by an initial element with signifi-cant buoyancy released in a large water body, is numerically studied with the two-equation k - e model for turbulence closure. The numerical results show that the thermal is characterized by a vortex pair flow and a kidney shaped concentra-tion structure with double peak maxima; the computed flow details and scalar mixing characteristics can be described by self-similar relations beyond a dimensionless time around 10. There are two regions in the flow field of a line thermal: a mixing region where the concentration of tracer fluid is high and the flow is turbulent and rotational with a pair of vortex eyes, and an ambient region where the concentration is zero and the flow is potential and well-described by a model of doublet with strength very close to those given by early experimental and analytical studies. The added virtual mass coeffi-cient of the thermal motion is found to be approximat     

秦山核电站邻近水域的流况分析

本文分析了秦山核电站邻近水域各测站的实测流、潮流和佘流分布及季节变化。结果表明:测区内潮流为非正规丰日浅海潮流,其运动形式呈往复流。核电站二期工程取水口附近(L_1,18站)为一大流速区,而一期工程出水口周围(L_2,L_2′站)有一相对小的流速区。大流速区落潮流历时大于涨潮流历时,而相对小流速区则相反;大流速区的余流较小,而小流速区的余流大。在四个季节中,涨潮流速秋季最大,春季次之,夏季最小;落潮流速秋季最大,夏季次之,春季最小。余流冬、秋两季较大。在实测流中以潮流为主,径流和季风的作用也相当显著。     

How tides and river flows determine estuarine bathymetries

For strongly tidal, funnel-shaped estuaries, we examine how tides and river flows determine size and shape. We also consider how long it takes for bathymetric adjustment, both to determine whether present-day bathymetry reflects prevailing forcing and how rapidly changes might occur under future forcing scenarios.Starting with the assumption of a 'synchronous' estuary (i.e., where the sea surface slope resulting from the axial gradient in phase of tidal elevation significantly exceeds the gradient in tidal amplitude ), an expression is derived for the slope of the sea bed. Thence, by integration we derive expressions for the axial depth profile and estuarine length, L, as a function of and D, the prescribed depth at the mouth. Calculated values of L are broadly consistent with observations. The synchronous estuary approach enables a number of dynamical parameters to be directly calculated and conveniently illustrated as functions of and D, namely: current amplitude Û, ratio of friction to inertia terms, estuarine length, stratification, saline intrusion length, flushing time, mean suspended sediment concentration and sediment in-fill times.Four separate derivations for the length of saline intrusion, L_I, all indicate a dependency on (U_o is the residual river flow velocity and f is the bed friction coefficient). Likely bathymetries for `mixed' estuaries can be delineated by mapping, against and D, the conditions L<sub>I</sub>/L<1,E<sub>X</sub>/L<1 (E<sub>X</sub> is the tidal excursion) alongside the Simpson-Hunter criteria D/U<sup>3</sup><50 m<sup>−2</sup> s<sup>3</sup>. This zone encompasses 24 out of 25 `randomly' selected UK estuaries.However, the length of saline intrusion in a funnel-shaped estuary is also sensitive to axial location. Observations suggest that this location corresponds to a minimum in landward intrusion of salt. By combining the derived expressions for L and L_I with this latter criterion, an expression is derived relating D_i, the depth at the centre of the intrusion, to the corresponding value of U_o. This expression indicates U_o is always close to 1 cm s⁻¹, as commonly observed. Converting from U_o to river flow, Q, provides a morphological expression linking estuarine depth to Q (with a small dependence on side slope gradients).These dynamical solutions are coupled with further generalised theory related to depth and time-mean, suspended sediment concentrations (as functions of and D). Then, by assuming the transport of fine marine sediments approximates that of a dissolved tracer, the rate of estuarine supply can be determined by combining these derived mean concentrations with estimates of flushing time, F_T, based on L_I. By further assuming that all such sediments are deposited, minimum times for these deposition rates to in-fill estuaries are determined. These times range from a decade for the shortest, shallowest estuaries to upwards of millennia in longer, deeper estuaries with smaller tidal ranges.     

一个南海热带气旋发展的环流特征分析

本文用ECMWF2.5×2.5网格点资料通过一个例子,对有利于南海热带气旋发展的环流场作了详细的分析,发现几点事实:(1)扰动在风的垂直切变较大的环境中仍可发展。(2)扰动位于中、低空西南急流左侧,高空南支东风急流右侧时,有利发展。(3)中,低空西南急流形成了扰动环流的强风潮,强风潮从扰动南侧入角,并包围扰动的东半圆。(4)扰动中、低层的入流和高层的外流呈现严重的不对称性。(5)当扰动发展到一定强度时,对南海热带季风环流圈的加强起到正反馈作用。