Stochastic perturbation analysis of groundwater flow. Spatially variable soils,semi-infinite domains and large fluctuations

As is well known, a complete stochastic solution of the stochastic differential equation governing saturated groundwater flow leads to an infinite hierarchy of equations in terms of higher-order moments. Perturbation techniques are commonly used to close this hierarchy, using power-series expansions. These methods are applied by truncating the series after a finite number of terms, and products of random gradients of conductivity and head potential are neglected. Uncertainty regarding the number or terms required to yield a sufficiently accurate result is a significant drawback with the application of power series-based perturbation methods for such problems. Low-order series truncation may be incapable of representing fundamental characteristics of flow and can lead to physically unreasonable and inaccurate solutions of the stochastic flow equation. To support this argument, one-dimensional, steady-state, saturated groundwater flow is examined, for the case of a spatially distributed hydraulic conductivity field. An ordinary power-series perturbation method is used to approximate the mean head, using second-order statistics to characterize the conductivity field. Then an interactive perturbation approach is introduced, which yields improved results compared to low-order, power-series perturbation methods for situations where strong interactions exist between terms in such approximations. The interactive perturbation concept is further developed using Feynman-type diagrams and graph theory, which reduce the original stochastic flow problem to a closed set of equations for the mean and the covariance functions. Both theoretical and practical advantages of diagrammatic solutions are discussed; these include the study of bounded domains and large fluctuations.     

反演二维弹性波动方程组多参数的渐近展开法

采用摄动法对二维弹性波动方程组的系数反问题进行渐近近似,给出了反演系数的具体计算方法。用摄动法解微分方程组的系数反问题还是首次。此外,还采用了地球物理分层模型,这种分层模型便于更精细地反映地球不同圈层的物理特征,更接近于实际情况。同时对进一步提高反演分辨率、增加反演参数、对病态方程组如何克服不适定性等问题,作了具体阐述,具有重要的理论意义与应用价值。     

An experiment on reservoir representation schemes to improve hydrologic prediction: coupling the national water model with the HEC-ResSim

ABSTRACT

This study experiments with reservoir representation schemes to improve the ability to model active water management in the National Water Model (NWM). For this purpose, we developed an integrated water management model, NWM-ResSim, by coupling the NWM with HEC-ResSim, and two reservoir representation schemes are tested: simulation of reservoir operations and retrieval of scheduled operations. The experiments focus on a pilot reservoir domain in the Russian River basin – Lake Mendocino, California – and its contributing watershed. The evaluation results suggest that the NWM-ResSim improves the simulation performance of reservoir outflow from this managed reservoir over the NWM default level pool routing scheme. The degree of this improvement depends on the suitability of the operation guidance; the reservoir operations simulation scheme could have acceptable errors for the purposes of water resources management, but not for flood operations. Results of the retrieval scheme of scheduled operations demonstrated better performance for sub-daily flood operations.     

云模式中气溶胶物理过程参数化方案研究概述

介绍了大气气溶胶的浓度、气溶胶的谱形等物理性质对云的微物理过程造成的影响以及目前云模式中常用到的一些气溶胶物理过程的体积水、分档等参数化方案，并评述了这些参数化方案各自的特点。提出了在设计气溶胶物理过程参数化方案时需要注意和有待解决的几个问题，建议在设计气溶胶-云相互作用的模式时，要根据不同的研究目的选择合适的参数化方案。     

GRAPES模式不同云物理方案对短期气候模拟的影响

在胡志晋、刘奇俊云物理方案的基础上，研制了GRAPES模式的云降水显式方案。用不同云物理方案开展了短期气候（月尺度）过程的模拟试验，并与地面观测资料和NECP再分析资料进行了对比分析。模拟的结果表明，耦合了云降水显式方案的GRAPES模式较好地模拟出了中国地区降水、温度、云量、长短波辐射的特点和分布规律。气候模拟中冰相过程和暖云过程模拟的降水、温度、云量和辐射差异较大，不同相态的水凝物及其分布对辐射特征有较大的影响，混合相云物理方案的模拟结果与实况更为吻合，应使用混合相云物理方案进行短期气候的模拟。     

气象遥感资料变分校准方案改进及应用试验

针对常见气象遥感资料变分校准方案的不足，提出了一个改进方案。该方案不需要将校准参照量插值到遥测资料的格点上，既避免了对稀疏的校正参照量进行客观分析的困难，也避免了校正参照量稀缺区域不准确插值分析带来的不利影响，使遥感资料的整体偏差得到修订的同时，能够更好地保持遥测资料的空间分布形态不变。利用国家卫星气象中心通过9210下发的ATOVS反演产品进行了试验，结果表明改进方案校准效果好；并将校准后的ATOVS反演资料用于Grapes三维变分同化系统，应用试验表明校准后的ATOVS反演资料在三维变分同化系统中具有应用价值。     

APPLICATION OF BDA SCHEME IN TYPHOON TRACK PREDICTION

The MM5, which is the PSU/NCAR mesoscale nonhydrostatic limited-area model, and its adjoining modeling system are used in this paper. Taking T106 analysis data as background field the authors generate an optimal initial condition of a typhoon by using two bogus data assimilation schemes, and conduct some numerical simulating experiments. The results of No.9608 typhoon (Gloria) show that the optimal initial field have some dramatic improvements, such as inaccurate position of typhoon center, weaker typhoon circulation and incomplete inner structure of the typhoon, which are caused by shortage of data over the sea. Some improvements have been made in the track forecast. Through several comparing experiments, the initialization optimized by BDA scheme is found to be more reasonable than GFDL scheme and its typhoon track forecast is better.     

一类双曲-抛物型方程的广义解

讨论了一类奇摄动双曲-抛物型方程广义初边值问题,在适当的条件下,用Galerkin方法研究了广义解的存在性、唯一性,同时得到了解的渐近估计式。     

Multiple Parameter Regularization: Numerical Solutions and Applications to the Determination of Geopotential from Precise Satellite Orbits

Kaula’s rule of thumb has been used in producing geopotential models from space geodetic measurements, including the most recent models from satellite gravity missions CHAMP. Although Xu and Rummel (Manuscr Geod 20 8–20, 1994b) suggested an alternative regularization method by introducing a number of regularization parameters, no numerical tests have ever been conducted. We have compared four methods of regularization for the determination of geopotential from precise orbits of COSMIC satellites through simulations, which include Kaula’s rule of thumb, one parameter regularization and its iterative version, and multiple parameter regularization. The simulation results show that the four methods can indeed produce good gravitational models from the precise orbits of centimetre level. The three regularization methods perform much better than Kaula’s rule of thumb by a factor of 6.4 on average beyond spherical harmonic degree 5 and by a factor of 10.2 for the spherical harmonic degrees from 8 to 14 in terms of degree variations of root mean squared errors. The maximum componentwise improvement in the root mean squared error can be up to a factor of 60. The simplest version of regularization by multiplying a positive scalar with a unit matrix is sufficient to better determine the geopotential model. Although multiple parameter regularization is theoretically attractive and can indeed eliminate unnecessary regularization for some of the harmonic coefficients, we found that it only improved its one parameter version marginally in this COSMIC example in terms of the mean squared error.     

顾及地球引力摄动的卫星和卫星星下点位置计算

本文叙述了顾及地球引力摄动的卫星化置计算方法；利用天球坐标系与地球坐标系之间的坐标变换关系，给出了由卫星位置计算卫星星下点位置的严密计算公式。